Is Jorge Lopez a top 100 prospect in all of MILB?

[molitor fan]

I understand this would be a surprising question, but looking at the season Lopez has put together, i think the question needs to be raised.

 

AA ball - 70 innings/1.16 WHIP/2.80ERA.8.5 k's per 9....over last 27 innings - 3 runs for a 1.00 ERA/22 baserunners

 

It has been a process since he was drafted, but he does not turn 23 till 2016....I think he is in our rotation next year.

[TheCrew07]

No, he's not even top 3 in the Brewer organization right now.

 

He's made quite a bit of progress though, I agree with you on that.

[pogokat]

I saw him pitch in the all-star game this week--he looked great. Of the guys on the Biloxi roster, he looks like the one with the most potential to be a 2-3 starter. But after seeing Blake Snell and Robert Stephenson, it's easy to see he's a little behind---mainly just because he doesn't throw super duper hard.

[molitor fan]

a first hand observation from pogokat - it does not get better than that.....I know he has always been listed as extremely skinny and it appears on video he has filled out a little bit....wondering if he could continue to fill out and increase velocity a bit

[TigerUppercut]

No, he's not even top 3 in the Brewer organization right now.

 

He's made quite a bit of progress though, I agree with you on that.

 

1. Arcia

2. Medeiros

3. Lara???

[LouisEly]

Throwing super duper hard doesn't mean anything if you can't find the strike zone with your secondary pitches (or fastball). Alex Meyer is a top 100 prospect who throws hard but after averaging 4.4 and 4.8 BB/9 in AAA the Twins have moved him to the bullpen (for now). Stephenson, in repeating AA this year, has averaged 4.9 and 5.0 BB/9 in AA and his HR rate in AA (1.1/9) is the same as Mike Fiers career HR rate in the majors.

 

Lopez still needs some work on his walk rate too, but his walk rate and HR rate are both significantly better than Stephenson at the same age, same level, same league.

[TheCrew07]

Medeiros isn't top 3 for me right now, he doesn't control the zone and the pitch he commands the best within the zone is his curve. He's filthy, but very raw. Williams doesn't have Kodi's stuff, but I was really impressed by how he worked with his FB.

 

This is how prioritize pitching and how I coach it.

1. FB control and general mechanics

2. Introduce 1st secondary pitch

3. FB command within the zone

4. 1st secondary pitch control

5. Introduce 2nd off speed pitch

6. 2nd off speed pitch control

 

Once a pitch is controlled we continue working on command drills for those pitches.

 

Control would be finding the zone, command would locating the pitch within the zone or being able drop it in places outside the zone to induces swings and misses, for example burying a CB. An ideal swing and miss curve starts above the knees and ends up just above the dirt.

 

Kodi is sick, but if he doesn't learn to control his FB he won't come close to his ceiling. Colby thinks he's athletic enough, I'm in wait and see mode.

 

 

I still think the best 3 prospects are all position players.

 

Arica, Taylor, and Coulter.

 

Outside of Arcia who's rapidly separating from the pack all the rest have pretty significant warts so rankings would depend on what people are personally looking for. I personally don't get super excited about hot months or a good half, I'm looking at full season progression. Lopez has always been a 2 steps forward, 1 step back type of guy, he's shown flashes of brilliance of everywhere he's been, just never consistent.

[pogokat]

Lopez is a big dude--- he looks like he could throw harder, and I bet he would if he wasn't trying to control it. I wouldn't bother the rankings here...he looks good, exciting, and project able.

 

Btw...I wouldn't be surprised to see Lara ranked #2, after Arcia

[BrewersAA]

i think the most important part about Lopez right now is thats hes consistently succeeding for a full half after a strong second half last season (full season of success with a jump in competition!) and that he still have some projectibility left!! a lot to be excited about and tons of potential left. He might not be there yet in terms of top 100 guys (and maybe he is) but hes not done getting better yet, a lot of the guys ahead of him arent really going to get any better, they are just refining things, Jorge still has the potential to make another jump.

[brewmann04]

so who are the brewers top 3 pitching prospects with starters material

[BrewersAA]

tough to gauge right after the draft, because cody ponce has all the Stuff and tools to become a major league ace, but he could be a dud you know, we dont have a pro ball sample size yet. Then theres nathan kirby who can be absolutely nasty and could have been a top 5 pick had he not gotten injured (and still isnt signed). excluding those two, IMO its Medieros 1A williams 1B Tyler Wagner 2 (dont let one MLB start skew your view). then from there I would put taylor williams next, also cant ignore what Taylor Jungmann has been able to do. Also, i know hes not a prospect anymore be tyler thornburg is in AAA and was a top 100 prospect with excellent major league results (I seriously cant figure out what the brewers are trying to accomplish with him right now. Lopez heads up the next tier IMO.

[hyerbro1]

1. Lopez

2. Williams

3. Medeiros

 

4. Jungmann

5. Wagner

6. Cravy

7. Thornburg

 

Lopez is our best SP prospect right now. I put them in two different tiers, young prospects and old prospects. Jungmann, Wagner, and company might end up as bottom of the roster types but I would surprised if any if them were signed to a post arbitration contract. If you want to argue Williams or Mederios ahead of Lopez, I think you could be right but, imo, Lopez is #1.

[SRB]

1. Lopez

2. Williams

3. Medeiros

 

4. Jungmann

5. Wagner

6. Cravy

7. Thornburg

 

Lopez is our best SP prospect right now. I put them in two different tiers, young prospects and old prospects. Jungmann, Wagner, and company might end up as bottom of the roster types but I would surprised if any if them were signed to a post arbitration contract. If you want to argue Williams or Mederios ahead of Lopez, I think you could be right but, imo, Lopez is #1.

 

Medeiros is the best SP prospect in the system, and the gulf between him and everybody else is enormous. Not even close.

 

Between his age, strikeout rate, not-unacceptable walk rate, and ground ball dominance, he is very quietly having a fantastic season. I could see him slingshotting into a top-25 prospect after next season.

[FVBrewerFan]

I would also note, you just never know. Jungmann was having a horrible year, gets a chance to start for the Brewers and has pitched well at the MLB level. Then you have a guy like Nelson who was nothing short of dominant in AAA, but has been mediocre in MLB.

 

Jorge Ortega isn't even mentioned, yet find me a pitcher anywhere in the organization with better numbers in the first half. These things are fluid. It's fun to rank guys, I enjoy doing that too. At the end of the day, all the rankings don't matter. You just try to collect as many arms as possible, develop them, and see how it all shakes out.

[CheezWizHed]

Jungmann was having a horrible year, gets a chance to start for the Brewers and has pitched well at the MLB level. Then you have a guy like Nelson who was nothing short of dominant in AAA, but has been mediocre in MLB.

 

That is where scouting balances pure numbers. If it was based purely on "numbers" Jungmann wouldn't have gotten a chance. Some people are effected by the light air more than others. His start in the MLB is a bit surprising, but nothing that happened in AAA this year changed my impression that he was a viable MLB SP.

 

And if you watched Nelson's career, you'll note that he takes some time to adjust to the next level. So early struggles aren't all the unexpected. And seeing how all the Brewer SPs struggled at the early part of this year, I wonder if there is something more systemically wrong in the system (advanced scouting, game planning, etc..).

[Mr Southpaw]

I saw Williams pitch the other night in Appleton and was impressed.

 

Cravy is the real deal. He has good command of a number of pitches. When I saw him last year in Chattanooga you could see he is a smart pitcher. He will be with the Brewers soon and will stay a long time.

[hyerbro1]

I think we Brewer fans should be excited about Lopez. He probably isn't a top 100 prospect, but I think he could be in the honorable mention category. The Brewers seem to have waves of prospects coming for the first time in a while. Jungmann, Cravy, and Wagner will get their chances first. Then Lopez. And Medeiros, Williams, Ortega, Ponce, and Kirby next, all are a couple years away and all likely won't make it, but every night there seems to be 2 names on the probable SP list that make me click that box score before others.

 

Also, I know I am missing some good prospects in the above paragraph.

 

I like Lopez because he has had success at AA. Medeiros is doing nice things at A ball, but Lopez is doing at AA. Using John Sickels grading, Lopez is probably a B type prospect while Medeiros might be more more of a B+/A- guy with a higher risk factor, although that is starting to fade with every good outing.

[CheezWizHed]

I've also been very happy to see Lopez's progress this year. We all knew he was young and raw when he started, but after a mediocre year at A+ (where the air favors the pitcher), I was starting to lose faith to see him making it. So, both moving up a level and stepping up his production is very exciting.

 

MLB: Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Jungmann

AAA: Cravy

AA: Wagner, Lopez

 

No one looks like a #1 SP, but a nice mix of #2-#5 SPs. Sign Zimmerman next year and we have a pretty decent and almost home-grown rotation.

[Jenkins5]

Usually when national services look at top prospect, ceiling out weighs production. So for them, they would rank our system by which prospect has the highest ceilings. Therefore, your Cravy, Hall, and Wagners rank lower.

 

In my eyes off the top a national service will be on

1. Meredois

2. D. Williams

3. N. Kirby (once signs)

4. Diplan

 

Lopez is still young and his body is still filling out and adding power. That's exciting as he was one of the most projectible pitchers in his draft class. I think he would be slotted probably 5th right now if you are counting Kirby. Taylor Williams in the mix.

 

Ortega is do interesting.... He was the 3rd wheel to Rizzo & Gomez in DSL for those years and now he is shotting up! He doesn't strikeout anyone at all but man he can flat out pitch and hit his spots. He just refuses to walk anyone. Pitches to contact & keeps his pitch count low to go deep into starts.

 

 

Moreover, I'd be 100% opposed to signing Zimmerman. Are we going for it again next year and having another high payroll? We have young pitchers for cheap, give them their shots next year and take bumps. We need to stop overpaying for pitchers in FA and through trades. To me a waste of money to sign a guy if your not looking at contending NOW. You don't sign with hopes of 2-4 years from now contending

[CheezWizHed]

Yeah, I thought about that when I mentioned Zimmerman; Its too early. But its nice to have the local guy.

[SRB]

Interesting tidbit from BA prospect hot list, regarding Lopez:

 

The Scoop: Hiccups by the Brewers’ 2014 draft class have been compensated for by the excellent work of Double-A shortstop Orlando Arcia and Biloxi teammate Lopez, who pitched like a front-of-the-rotation arm in the first half. While Lopez didn’t make the midseason top 50 prospects list we’ll unveil next week, some scouts brought up his name as a candidate.

[pogokat]

Well there you go--- lots of graduations at the top will surely help several Brewers. I think we could have as many as 4 in the top 100 by seasons end ---Arcia, Lara, Lopez, and either Reed, Medeiros, or Diplan. There's a bunch of other guys on the fringe too like Williams, Clark, and Coulter.

[SRB]

Well there you go--- lots of graduations at the top will surely help several Brewers. I think we could have as many as 4 in the top 100 by seasons end ---Arcia, Lara, Lopez, and either Reed, Medeiros, or Diplan. There's a bunch of other guys on the fringe too like Williams, Clark, and Coulter.

 

I certainly hope Medeiros will be. I still think he's the best prospect in the system (depending on how well Lara performs).

 

9.4 K/9, 3.01 FIP, and a ground ball machine (only one pitcher in the Midwest league has thrown more innings without giving up a HR this season) as one of the youngest players in the league. He's on his way to being elite.

[TheCrew07]

Arcia is a lock, Lara I could see if he keeps hitting, Lopez would have to close out this season like he started it and then I'd be on board, Taylor was close before the start of the season so graduations will help him. If Coulter's season continues to match last year's MWL campaign he won't make it, if he finds any kind of hit tool consistency and gets his AVE to level off in the .280s he'd have a shot.

 

Medeiros I don't think so, any scout who's watched him pitch is going to say the same thing I have, he's a project at this time; there's a chance he makes it because of his rate stats but as I've said a couple of times Williams and Ventura control the strike zone much better than Kodi does. He's filthy, but he doesn't have first tier velocity, he's been working 88-93 all season, so people are going to see different ceilings when they watch him, and depending on what day and how many times they've seen him pitch will matter. I could see him being in the back 25 if enough people like him but generally speaking control projects with first tier velocity and plus stuff all the way around are the guys that get rated higher than they probably should be based on ceiling early in their career. He's atypical enough he's very hard to judge it many respects. I honestly believe that Williams is the more advanced pitcher even though he doesn't have Kodi's secondary stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the top 100 because he gets results, but he works mostly up and out of the strike zone, and I just don't think he's going to have to have the same level of success if he moves up with the same control. That's the part of his game that needs to take significant steps forward as he advances.

 

Diplan, it's early for that, he's an international player in Rookie ball. A solid campaign next year at WI could put him on the map for the future. Reed is interesting in so many ways, but I'm not sure he's sexy enough tool wise to make the list, he's a solid across the board type. He's an OBP machine though and everyone loves OBP these days so maybe that would be enough for him to sneak in. Tyler Wagner is going to get some looks as a results orientated pitcher, his tools are MLB average like Kingham from the Pirates, Kingham made the list in the past but hasn't as he's moved up.

 

It's hard to say really because scouts and organizations will value different things. For example I'm control/command orientated where as someone like Colby is more stuff orientated so even on the board here the scouting reports will vary depending on the personal bias of the viewer. Where some see results, maybe a huge FB, or simply believe a player has a superb ceiling because he was drafted high, I see delivery complications so I'm skeptical what they are doing will work in MLB. Our personal biases are going to influence what we see, which is why rating by video becomes so helpful; it's much easier to get a true sense of a players strengths and weaknesses when you can slow down and watch both the good and the bad.

 

I think back to all of the players I've missed on over the years, and not just from the Brewer organization as it is quite easy to get attached to non divisional players in the minors as well. I've tried to learn something different from each those players and situations, self evaluate to see what I missed, and in most cases it was simply not getting to watch enough of the player, I was making statistical observations. That's why I pick my words very carefully and I rarely fawn over a prospect... it's difficult for me to get excited, a player really has to stand out amongst his peers. If he just looks like everyone else in A ball, then he's really not much of a prospect... in fact if he just looks like the average AA player he's not much of a prospect, so I think results need to be put in context of athleticism and talent, and of course vice versa. If you go back and look you'll see I was telling people to remember the name "Mike Trout" in the Link Reports after the Rattlers played 2 series against him... Trout and Segura lit the Rattlers up and in Trout's case he was obviously so much better than everyone else on the field that it was obvious he was going to be special, and I'm not easily impressed.

 

The prospects that skip past WI I'm not going to have a lot to say about because I haven't watched them play, so for example I'm not going to have all that much to offer about Hobbs Johnson other than his BA scouting report:

The Brewers really liked what they saw out of Johnson in 2014. They challenged him to work on his offspeed pitches, and he did so to become a more complete pitcher. He doesn't overpower batters, throwing his fastball in the 88-91 mph range, but he is aggressive and attacks hitters with no fear, pitching ahead in the count with consistency. Johnson's fastball has good sink and he makes a living inducing hitters to beat the ball into the ground. He throws a curve that needs more consistency, but his changeup is aboveaverage and a prime weapon against righthanders. Because of his advanced pitchability and improved command, Johnson could move quickly. The Brewers like his bulldog approach and the way he pitches with confidence, and plan to keep him as a starter for now, but long term he is more likely a reliever. Johnson is a grinder with mental toughness and should jump to Double-A Biloxi in 2015.

 

I think many people will over value our own guys much like the Brewers do, so I try to keep in mind that the top 100 is basically the top 3 prospects from each organization. Of course organizations in the top 10 will have more top 100 prospects than organizations in the bottom 10, and I think the Brewers are moving towards the middle, which is why I settled on the top 3 in my first post. I find Coulter to be the most frustrating prospect in the system but I try not to hold that against him, so maybe I over compensate the other way when I make lists, but like I said after Arcia it's pretty much up in the air who people are going to like and why.

[brewcrewdue80]

Is he a top 100 in all of MiLB? Maybe prior to the draft. Now that the draft has happened, probably 10 manage to get ranked in the top 100 a few deserving, but others just because they are top 15 picks or so and they push Lopez back out of top 100. Lopez is on the Nelson rise with his numbers. He'll sneak in the top 100 falling in the 80s or so to begin next season should he keep this rate up roughly. For the most part #75-150 rankings in MiLB are like a 75A through the Alphbet 3 times. There's reasons current #75 doesn't belong as are reasons a guy at 150 belongs. It's probably like the Draft in who's a 1st rd pick and who's 2nd-3rd. with 3months to draft day. Who's hot gets in, who's not falls out.