Atlanta Journal Constitution Musings - Bethancourt for Lucroy

[TheCrew07]

3 legitimately talented former 1st round picks isn't an underpay for Lucroy, none of those guys were high floor signability types like teams used to draft. You're either over valuing Lucroy or under valuing the return. Fried was #7 overall, Sims #27, and Toussaint #16. If you want some throw in players I can understand, but that's an avalanche of talent to headline a trade.

 

Braxton Davidson, the 3B/OF that Nate mentioned, was the #32 overall pick last year.

He started to drive the ball with consistency midway through his stint in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, where he ranked as the No. 12 prospect. Davidson's strength is his plus hit tool. He's a patient hitter with an advanced feel for the strike zone and has made noticeable improvements with his contact rate over the past year. Despite failing to hit a home run in his first taste of pro ball, Davidson has plus raw power to all fields. He's quick to the ball and uses his natural strength to drive pitches with authority from the left side of the plate. His on-base percentage projects to be high due to his ability to draw walks. His below-average speed plays higher due to his intelligence on the basepaths. Davidson made the shift from left to right field in instructional league and has enough arm strength to stay there. If not, he could return to his high school position of first base. The Braves will be patient with Davidson, who turned 18 two weeks after the draft. A potential 20-home run hitter, he will challenge for a spot at low Class A Rome in spring training.

 

Ricardo Sanchez isn't a bad throw in guy as mentioned by the MLBTR piece, the only guy I wouldn't have interest in that was listed is Mike Foltynewicz, I've always thought he was a reliever.

 

A note that Sims would actually have to be a PTNBL as I believe he's been on the DL since that bus accident.

[MrTPlush]

Wait Sims is on the DL too? I know Fried has been all season to my understanding...but Sims too?

[SRB]

Too many want to acquire prospects like Noah Syndergaard when he's the best pitching prospect in baseball, the idea should be to acquire him in A ball like the Mets did... that's where the value is.

 

No, that's where all the risk is. The value is in an extremely rare commodity like Lucroy who, at least if you value him as a cost-controleld MVP-caliber catcher (which some teams surely do), is worth Syndergaard +++.

[TheCrew07]

Would you kindly point out the last time a potential Ace pitching prospect was traded when he was in AAA?

[MrTPlush]

Would you kindly point out the last time a potential Ace pitching prospect was traded when he was in AAA?

 

Would you point out the last all star catcher in his prime to be traded with 2+ years left on his bargain deal?

 

Neither situation happens...but if they did, I think it would be more than fair. I wouldn't do it if I was the Mets, but the value is fair.

[TheCrew07]

Except that once again pitching and hitting are not remotely equal, pitching is king in baseball. No one exerts as much control over the course of the game as the pitchers do.

[MrTPlush]

Except that once again pitching and hitting are not remotely equal, pitching is king in baseball. No one exerts as much control over the course of the game as the pitchers do.

 

Pitching is also ending up easier to find. It is more abundant at the moment. With pitching being "king" the real challenge is finding the elite hitters to counter that.

[SRB]

Would you kindly point out the last time a potential Ace pitching prospect was traded when he was in AAA?

 

Just off the top of my head:

 

Shelby Miller for Jason Heyward (MLB not AAA, but close enough)

 

Jacob Turner (pre-2012, #22) for Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez

 

Trevor Bauer (pre-2013, #14) for Didi Gregorious

 

Tyler Skaggs (pre-2013, #12) for Mark Trumbo

 

Whether you think Syndergaard (pre-2015, #11) is substantially better than any of those guys (and there are probably many more I'm not thinking of) isn't really the point. I want a top-25, top-15 pitching prospect for somebody Lucroy (who is way more valuable than the chumps involved in the above trades) at a minimum. None of the Braves pitching prospects were even ranked top-100 prior to this season. They are pure risk.

[MrTPlush]

Would you kindly point out the last time a potential Ace pitching prospect was traded when he was in AAA?

 

Just off the top of my head:

 

Shelby Miller for Jason Heyward (MLB not AAA, but close enough)

 

Jacob Turner for Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez

 

Trevor Bauer for Didi Gregorious

 

Tyler Skaggs for Mark Trumbo

 

And I am going to mention it now: While none of those guys on the left side are as complete as Syndergaard the players on the right are no where near Lucroy.

[splitterpfj]

Max Scherzer, with Daniel Schlereth, for Edwin Jackson.

 

Zack Wheeler for 2 months of Carlos Beltran - the Mets threw in some cash.

 

(Caution, side rant coming)

 

People on this board have a problem with words like, "always", and, "never." There are probabilities, of course, but we're dealing with human behavior when it comes to trade-making decisions. If you want a, "never"... never underestimate the possibility of a surprise.

 

Arizona would never trade last year's top pick just to save some money, so don't bother speculating, teams always keep those guys.

[TheCrew07]

As far the pitchers listed in the previous couple of posts, not one of them was a potential Ace. Top prospect pitchers sure, but not at the same level and Syndergaard is now. Scherzer as an example took years to grow into his role and early on in his tenure with AZ he was looking more like a #3 than the #2 that most people thought he was on draft day. Sometimes prospects are exactly what we thought they were, sometimes they get much better than expected, sometimes much worse, but that's why numbers matter. We can never really predict what will go on in any player's head, so we need more legitimate prospects to cover the full spectrum. For every Gallardo there is a Manny Parra and Zach Braddock; and while prospects carry risk, it's easy to mitigate the risk with numbers. A veteran player will carry a different kind of risk, for a much greater monetary investment, and it's not realistic to attempt to mitigate that risk through numbers, there aren't enough 25 man roster spots for that.

 

If you were a GM would give up 6+ years of a 22 year old potential #1 pitcher for 2+ years of a 29 year old all-star catcher? I wouldn't, maybe there is a GM who would make that trade, but I doubt it, though I do agree that anything is possible. However, ATL doesn't doesn't have that kind of prospect, few teams do, so if they want Lucroy what's the best possible deal we could get?

 

So really the question is this, "is a getting 6 years of 2, 3, and likely a 4-5" type starting pitchers worth 2+ years of Lucroy? My answer would be yes, if you can get some additional throw ins that could provide MLB value, the more the better.

 

There will be Melvin's ideal trade, and then there are going to be the realistic trade offers that come through. Considering the fact that there are very few prospect pitchers who legitimately profile as #1s, there aren't going to be that many potential deals from the start, then those teams have to be willing to trade for the players he's willing to give up. I think getting back 3 pitchers from any organization with ultimate upsides of #3s or better is wonderful value to acquire. Much like the draft, I'm chasing a rotation full of #2s, I'm not looking to get "Aces".

 

Finally if pitching was so easy to find, the Brewers wouldn't have floundered about with all of these averagish and aging FA pitcher acquisitions for years. Young impact is not easy to find, in truth there are maybe 2 or 3 deals for that kind of pitching in a given year.