2015 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 21-40

[Eye Black]

The penalties are harsh, but if you were willing to pay a whole lot of tax and lose first round picks for a couple of years you could sign them all for their asking price. Here are the penalties...

 

Teams are allowed to go over their total bonus pool allotment, but even going over by small amounts incur harsh penalties. If a team exceeds their budget by between 0-5 percent, they are taxed 75 percent on the amount they went over. If they exceed the budget by 5-10 percent, they suffer the same penalty as 0-5 percent plus they lose their first-round selection in the following draft. Going over by 10-15 percent incurs a 100 percent tax on the overage, plus the loss of first- and second-round picks in the following draft. Anything over 15 percent results in the team paying a 100 percent tax on the overage and the loss of their first-round selection for the next two drafts.

[Raw Biz]

Conor Biggio drafted by the Astros in the 34th round. Why does that name sound familiar?

 

Nepotism running wild with the 'Stros. Kody Clemens in the 35th.

[SRB]

Is there a point where we just sign these guys an lose a number one next year? Has anyone ever done that? Hooper, Everett, India, maybe Perry are getting pretty close to a top pick, but I don't know what it would take to sign all of them either.

 

Considering we are looking like a possible first overall pick in a stacked 2016 draft, not sure it's the best year to do that.

 

They're probably hoping just one of these guys decides to take $200,000 or whatever and signs. (Which is far from a 0% probability scenario)

[brwrsfan]

The penalties are harsh, but if you were willing to pay a whole lot of tax and lose first round picks for a couple of years you could sign them all for their asking price. Here are the penalties...

 

Teams are allowed to go over their total bonus pool allotment, but even going over by small amounts incur harsh penalties. If a team exceeds their budget by between 0-5 percent, they are taxed 75 percent on the amount they went over. If they exceed the budget by 5-10 percent, they suffer the same penalty as 0-5 percent plus they lose their first-round selection in the following draft. Going over by 10-15 percent incurs a 100 percent tax on the overage, plus the loss of first- and second-round picks in the following draft. Anything over 15 percent results in the team paying a 100 percent tax on the overage and the loss of their first-round selection for the next two drafts.

 

Are these guys that good that it's worth sacrificing next years first round pick? A pick that is currently in line to be the #1 overall pick....

 

That's a serious question, I don't know any of these guys well at all. thanks.

[narwhalattack]

Take ALL the unsignable picks!!!

[Raw Biz]

Alonzo Jones to the Cubs. If they find a way to sign him...I know it's highly highly unlikely but damn, would they be looking good.

[TheCrew07]

I wouldn't want to give up next year's 1st rounder, the pitching is shaping up to be awesome, maybe better than last year. If we were going to take the the penalty I would have rather done that last year and given up this year's 1st round pick.

[pogokat]

Alonzo Jones to the Cubs. If they find a way to sign him...I know it's highly highly unlikely but damn, would they be looking good.

 

I know al very well, he's going to college.

[Eye Black]

Take ALL the unsignable picks!!!

I am actually curious if any team with deep pockets has ever considered trying this? Signing 10-12 "unsignable" guys would seem to be more valuable than two first round picks.

[Raw Biz]

I wouldn't want to give up next year's 1st rounder, the pitching is shaping up to be awesome, maybe better than last year. If we were going to take the the penalty I would have rather done that last year and given up this year's 1st round pick.

 

Hypothetically, if we signed all 3 (Hooper, Everett, India) and lost next year's 1st, would that be the equivalent of adding 2 additional 1st rounders this year in Hooper/Everett? Or is next year's draft so strong that guys drafted this year would likely be 2nd-3rd rounders next year?

[LouisEly]

You never know... they might do something stupid and get kicked out of college before mid-August. Or look at Mac Marshall; he decided to go the juco route and was eligible for the draft again this year. Builds a relationship with the player. I wonder what would happen if a player quit/dropped out of a 4-year school? I'm assuming he would go into the next draft, but at what point would he be a free agent?

 

I would rather they took flyers on a bunch of LHH 3B & C from jucos and small schools (or tried to find the next Fiers) to see if they can catch lightning in a bottle.

[splitterpfj]

Alonzo Jones to the Cubs. If they find a way to sign him...I know it's highly highly unlikely but damn, would they be looking good.

 

I know al very well, he's going to college.

 

Well, of course he is, I mean....who signs with the CUBS?

[SRB]

Brewers draft slot values:

 

1-15: $2,692,700 T. Clark

1b-40: $1,545,400 N. Kirby

2-55: $1,108,000 C. Ponce

3-90: $646,300 N. Walters

4-121: $465,600 D. Orimoloye

5-151: $348,600 B. Allemand

6-181: $261,000 E. Hanhold

7-211: $196,700 G. Iskenderian

8-241: $171,100 N. Griep

9-271: $159,700 K. Lindell

10-301: $149,700 J. Drossner

 

Just doing some mental math, the first four rounds look like they'll be right around slot, with the possible exception of Walters who presumably had a deal in place with the Brewers and might be below slot. If most of the college picks post-Round 4 take under slot bonuses (Lindell will probably be over slot), that could clear up enough excess money to offer one of these guys an $800k-$1M signing bonus. Am I wrong?

[WV Brew]

Conor Biggio drafted by the Astros in the 34th round. Why does that name sound familiar?

 

Nepotism running wild with the 'Stros. Kody Clemens in the 35th.

 

Nepotism prize goes to the Angels who took Mike Trout's girlfriend's brother.

[Raw Biz]

Conor Biggio drafted by the Astros in the 34th round. Why does that name sound familiar?

 

Nepotism running wild with the 'Stros. Kody Clemens in the 35th.

 

Nepotism prize goes to the Angels who took Mike Trout's girlfriend's brother.

 

Is that like AJ Hawk and Brady Quinn?

[trwi7]

Took Nick Kingham's brother in the 39th round. Laughing so hard at all the unsignable guys we're taking.

[igor67]

I don't know that I would pursue this strategy every year of taking 'unsignable' kids, but it certainly feels like it has a better shot of panning out than drafting say the Russel Wilson's of the world. After round 20 maybe 1 guy from the next 20 rounds might make it to the big leagues for your team and when he does he is almost always a utility, 6th starter type of player. I would agree that there are a couple of months for things to change. Or there might be something to the notion of getting a closer look at these guys for down the road, since you can talk to them much more in depth than pre-draft.

[SRB]

I suspect they've budgeted having somewhere between $750,000 to $1,000,000 extra to throw at a post-Round 10 guy, so they are drafting all of these long shots to maximize their chances that one of them jumps at it. Brilliant strategy, if it works.

[trwi7]

I suspect they've budgeted having somewhere between $750-$1M extra to throw at a post-Round 10 guy, so they are drafting all of these long shots to maximize their chances that one of them jumps at it.

 

Not a bad strategy either. Go to all of them and say "We're offering you this much along with these other players. There's only enough money for one of you. Whoever takes it first, gets it."

 

See if one of them blinks and you get yourself a top prospect past the 10th round. If none of them take it, oh well. You probably weren't going to get a productive big leaguer at that point anyways.

[Eye Black]

Brewers draft slot values:

 

1-15: $2,692,700 T. Clark

1b-40: $1,545,400 N. Kirby

2-55: $1,108,000 C. Ponce

3-90: $646,300 N. Walters

4-121: $465,600 D. Orimoloye

5-151: $348,600 B. Allemand

6-181: $261,000 E. Hanhold

7-211: $196,700 G. Iskenderian

8-241: $171,100 N. Griep

9-271: $159,700 K. Lindell

10-301: $149,700 J. Drossner

 

Just doing some mental math, the first four rounds look like they'll be right around slot, with the possible exception of Walters who presumably had a deal in place with the Brewers and might be below slot. If most of the college picks post-Round 4 take under slot bonuses (Lindell will probably be over slot), that could clear up enough excess money to offer one of these guys an $800k-$1M signing bonus. Am I wrong?

If they were willing to pay the 75% tax, the Brewers could spend up to an additional $387,205 without losing a future pick.

[narwhalattack]

So out of those late round guys, if you had to pick only one, who would you sign?

[Eye Black]

So out of those late round guys, if you had to pick only one, who would you sign?

Top 3 probably in this order for me, but I would be ecstatic if they figured out a way to sign any of them...

 

1) Tristan Beck

2) Justin Hooper

3) Donny Everett

[SRB]

So out of those late round guys, if you had to pick only one, who would you sign?

 

Justin Hooper looks the most impressive to my untrained eye. Everett looks like a potential reliever.

 

(Though obviously I would do backflips to sign any of these guys)

[trwi7]

1. Hooper

2. Everett

3. Beck

[colbyjack]

PG reports on some of the players taken:

 

Justin Hooper – LHP

 

Height/Weight: 6-7/240

Bats/Throws: R/L

Birthdate: Oct. 21, 1996

High School: De La Salle

Hometown: San Ramon, Calif.

Commitment: UCLA

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

Justin Hooper is one of the easiest players in the country to scout and, at the same time, one of the hardest.

 

It's easy to see that he's 6-foot-7, 240-pounds with athletic proportions and long arms and legs. It's easy to learn that he comes from a very athletic family that has excelled on the football field, adding even more to the physical projection. And it's especially easy to see that he throws 94-97 mph with relative ease and that he can spin the ball pretty well too. You can see the scenario that could play out in draft rooms come May and June when some scout speaks up during discussions, "Hey, we're talking about a 6-foot-7 left who is bringing it 97 mph, let's not get too complicated here breaking him down."

 

But there are, of course, complications. Bigger pitchers usually take more time to grow into their ability to repeat their deliveries and learn to command all their pitches. Hooper certainly fits that description and his delivery and arm action aren't classic in their execution. And he hasn't been seen as often as his peers in this draft, rarely, if ever, venturing out of the state of California to pitch. Most high level scouts will be seeing him stretched out for the first time this spring.

 

The hard part comes in pulling the trigger on Hooper being a top 5-10 pick over another pitcher with a longer resume but lower ceiling. The potential is there for that to be frequently talked about this spring.

 

Video:

 

 

Tristan Beck – RHP

 

Height/Weight: 6-4/175

Bats/Throws: R/R

Birthdate: June 24, 1996

High School: Corona

Hometown: Corona, Ca.

Commitment: Stanford

Projected Draft Round: 1-1S

 

A name that one is increasingly hearing as a potential first round pick is Tristan Beck. That is not a name one would have been hearing last summer and fall and marks the tall and slender Californian as perhaps the fastest riser in the 2015 high school class.

 

Last August, Beck pitched at the Area Code Games in nearby Long Beach and in many ways blended in with the second tier of pitchers at that high level event. He pitched in the 86-88 mph range and touched a few 90's early. His curveball was a quality pitch in the mid-70s. Beck was listed at 6-foot-4, 160-pounds but was athletic and coordinated in his delivery and his arm worked well. Blessed with a sterling academic record and a scholarship to Stanford, it wasn't difficult to project out his next four years.

 

Moving forward to April, 2015, the situation has changed. Beck is now listed at 175 pounds, having not played football last fall (he was Corona's starting quarterback as a junior) to concentrate on baseball, and that extra strength has made a huge impact on his raw stuff. Beck is now pitching in the 89-93 mph range and his curveball has become a plus pitch and potentially one of the best breaking balls in the class. He has always been a polished pitcher with easy and repeatable mechanics and has only walked 10 hitters in 31 innings this spring (5-0, 0.45).

 

Scouts have been flocking to see another SoCal righthander, Drew Finley, this spring and Finley and Beck's raw stuff and pitching maturity are very similar. According to scouts, Beck gets the small edge on Finley due to arm action and remaining projectability in their frames.

 

Scouts will naturally be mindful of Beck's academic record and the Stanford scholarship. But the young righthander is being evaluated at places in the draft where those things may not be as much a factor as they were nine months ago.

 

 

Donny Everett – RHP

 

Height/Weight: 6-2/220

Bats/Throws: R/R

Birthdate: April 16, 1997

High School: Clarksville

Hometown: Clarksville, Tenn.

Travel Team: Royals Scout Team

Commitment: Vanderbilt

Projected Draft Round: 1-1S

 

Everett has emerged as perhaps the hardest throwing prep pitcher in the country this spring, with reports of him touching 100 mph having circulated (although a scout at that game told me he was "only" up to 98). The strong bodied righthander has dominated in every way early in the season and was 4-0, 1.12 with 56 strikeouts and only two walks in 25 innings through mid-April.

 

Everett has also reportedly done a better job already this spring of maintaining his stuff through the middle and into his later innings of starts. On a number of high profile occasions last summer, Everett would show dominant stuff for two innings, then quickly tail off starting in the third frame. This, of course, raises the dreaded "future starter vs. reliever" question in a scout's mind, with a "future reliever" tag being something that any aspiring young starter wants to avoid.

 

There is nothing in Everett's delivery or raw stuff that would point to a future in the bullpen at this point and he's certainly strong enough physically to maintain his stuff. His delivery has some extra moving parts but it is free flowing and repeatable and shows Everett's athleticism well. It's a delivery that makes it easy for Everett to consistently get his power fastball down in the strike zone.

 

Along with his steady 94-96 mph fastball, a pitch that is heavy but fairly straight, Everett throws a very respectable changeup and a curveball. The changeup is frequently the better offering, with good arm speed and velocity separation, which is a good sign for Everett's future as a starter. His curveball shows sharpness when everything is working right but will get into that zone between a power curveball and soft sweeping slider at times and lose definition. It's easy to see a future pitching coach refining the curveball and adding a power slider/cutter to the mix.

 

The bottom line is that Everett has pretty much done everything necessary to solidly put himself in the first round mix this spring with less than two months to go before the draft.

 

Video:

 

 

405. Charlie Donovan, ss, Westmont HS

L-R, 5-11/175, Clarendon Hills, Ill.

College Commitment: Michigan

 

Donovan is a high performance middle infielder who has dominated Illinois high school baseball for the past three years. He isn't an especially physical athlete but has plenty of quick-twitch tools, including 6.6 speed in the 60-yard dash and a crisp lefthanded swing that has plenty of gap power. Donovan profiles as a second baseman at the next level and has the athleticism to make the spectacular play along with the more routine.

 

 

290. Jon Perrin, rhp, Oklahoma State (SR)

R-R, 6-3/197, Olathe, Kan.

Previously Drafted: Tigers ’14 (33)

 

Coming back for his senior season after being selected by the Detroit Tigers in 2014, Perrin provided an immediate shot in the arm for the Cowboys when he decided to return. A durable arm throughout the spring, Perrin has made a team high 16 starts, including the Stillwater Regional opener. Forming a strong 1-2 at the top of the rotation with lefty Michael Freeman, Perrin shows the ability to locate to both sides of the plate with his fastball, working into the low-90s while showing a late diving changeup and a low-80s slider.

 

 

221. Christian Trent, lhp, Mississippi (JR)

L-L, 6-0/200, Covina, La.

Previously Drafted: Dodgers ’14 (29)

 

Coming off a fantastic rookie campaign for the Rebels in 2014 when Trent went 9-0 with a 2.05 over 110 innings pitched, Ole Miss needed Trent to once again lead the pitching staff in 2015, especially with the departure of Sam Smith and Chris Ellis. A strongly built lefthander who actually began his collegiate career at Delgado Community College, Trent has taken the ball on Friday nights for Coach Mike Bianco this spring and has more than lived up to the challenge, jumping up a spot from last year’s Saturday role. Showing a three-pitch mix on the mound, Trent doesn’t have that one devastating off-speed pitch, or an overpowering breaking ball, but he hasn’t needed them as he continues to find success in the SEC. A fierce competitor who feeds of pressure situations, Trent shows a strong level of pitchability with the ability to work backwards on a hitter or go right after them while commanding either side of the plate with his fastball that sits in the 88-92 mph range and a solid slider.

 

 

121. Nolan Kingham, rhp, Desert Oasis

R-R, 6-4/195, Las Vegas, Nev.

College Commitment: Texas

 

The younger brother of Pirates prospect Nick Kingham, Nolan is no stranger to the craft of pitching or big-time competition. He’s proven to be an adept, well-rounded pitcher in a number of Perfect Game events, including the 2014 National Showcase where he performed very well and displayed a loose, quick arm. He’s progressed nicely since last summer, adding on some muscle mass to his well-proportioned 6-foot-4 frame and now occasionally running his fastball up to the 95-96 mph range. His heater sits comfortably in the 91-94 mph range and is a solid weapon on its own, but the entire arsenal has the potential to be above average. His 12-to-6 curveball in the low-70s has tight break and good depth, and his changeup plays very well off of his fastball with good fading action and finish below the knees. With his bloodlines, projectable pitcher’s frame and the strides that he’s continued to make this spring, Kingham has the potential to be gone before the third round comes to an end.

 

 

127. Jon India, ss/2b, American Heritage

R-R, 6-0/190, Delray, Fla.

College Commitment: Florida

 

India has performed extremely well at a number of Perfect Game events over the past couple of years, with particularly strong showings at the National Showcase last June, the PG All-American Classic in August and the WWBA World Championship this past October. India has an athletic build and is a solid-average runner with good body control. While he may have to move off of shortstop, India is a good athlete that should provide good defensive ability at either the hot corner or second base. Additionally, he has consistently barreled up top-level pitching and shown the ability to utilize his strength and translate his raw power into game action. Although it is tough for scouts to project the hit tool, especially for high school prospects, India seems as advanced as nearly any other prep bat in the draft class.