2015 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[Mass Haas]

Orléans baseball star drafted by Milwaukee Brewers

By Chris Hofley, Ottawa Sun

 

The lead up to the Major League Baseball draft seemed like an eternity to Ottawa’s Demi Orimoloye.

 

The 18-year-old from Orléans, who moved to Canada from his native Nigeria before his second birthday, knew he was going to be chosen in the 2015 draft, but that didn’t make the wait easier.

 

As draft day neared, Orimoloye even knew he was going to be a pick of the Milwaukee Brewers; they had told him as much. The organization stayed true to its word when they used their fourth-round pick, 121st overall, to make Orimoloye a Brewer on Tuesday.

 

“It was a sigh of relief,” Orimoloye told the Sun on Tuesday, a few hours after he was drafted. “I’m just happy to get started and be with a great organization like the Brewers.”

 

He said he was “happy” the draft process was over so he could just focus on the next stage of his baseball career, which began as a five-year-old in Toronto before his family relocated to Ottawa.

 

“I just want to get out there and give the Brewers all I’ve got,” he said.

 

But where the next few years will take the teen outfielder remains to be seen. Now that he’s been drafted, Orimoloye has to decide if he wants to head off to college next year or turn pro. He had previously committed to a scholarship at the University of Oregon but has the option of signing with the Brewers immediately.

 

Though he’s going to have to choose a trajectory sooner than later, Orimoloye hasn’t made a decision yet — at least not one he’s ready to announce publically.

 

“I’m just excited for everything that’s come my way,” said Orimoloye, who played with both the Canadian national junior team and the Ottawa-Nepean Canadians. “(College or pro) are both good options, so when the time comes to make the decision, I’ll let you (media) know.”

 

The 6-foot-4, 225-pounder was the fifth Canadian to be selected in this year’s draft.

 

“I bring speed, power, great defence and I have a great work ethic,” the St. Matthew High School graduate said of the qualities he feels got him noticed.

 

Though born in Nigeria where soccer reigns as the most popular sport, Orimoloye was all about baseball from a young age.

 

“I moved from (Nigeria) to Toronto when I was one, so I never really grew up there, it didn’t influence me that much,” he said. “My friends here wanted to play baseball so that’s how I started.”

 

Orimoloye was selected by Milwaukee just one spot before the Toronto Blue Jays were set to make their fourth-round selection. Though he was selected later than his 41st spot on Baseball America’s draft rankings would have predicted, Orimoloye still became the highest position player from the Ottawa region to go in the MLB draft, after San Diego took Chris Bisson 124th overall in 2010.

[Mass Haas]

Virginia's Nathan Kirby puts draft behind him, ready to pitch in the College World Series

By Norm Wood, dailypress.com

 

CHARLOTTESVILLE – As monumental as Monday night ended up being for Virginia pitcher Nathan Kirby, the results of the earlier portion of the day make it a strong contender for most important 24 hours in his baseball career..

 

It's tough to top the euphoria of being chosen 40th overall by the Milwaukee Brewers in the Major League Baseball draft, which also featured U.Va. right-handed pitcher Josh Sborz getting taken Monday night with the 74th overall pick by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yet, Kirby may have had more pressing matters to address right in Charlottesville.

 

With a two-inning, 40-pitch simulated game on tap, Kirby needed to show coach Brian O'Connor he was healthy and ready to offer U.Va. (39-22) something on the mound in Omaha, Neb. at the College World Series, which begins Saturday for the Cavaliers with a game against Arkansas.

 

More than seven weeks after having to temporarily shut down his pitching due to a strained latissimus dorsi muscle, Kirby appears to be ready to return.

 

"He looked really good," said O'Connor, adding the left-handed Kirby threw his fastball 88-92 miles per hour, threw breaking balls and change-ups and will likely initially come out of the bullpen if he returns in the College World Series.

 

"I thought he looked good from the standpoint of his strength level. His consistency wasn't real great, which is what you'd expect since he hadn't faced a batter in seven weeks. A little bit rusty, but he looked fully healthy.

 

"So, based on what I saw there and what we'll evaluate over the next three or four days, I anticipate that he'll be able to help us to some degree in Omaha. I don't know that that would be in the first game, maybe the second game or beyond that. Obviously, the deeper we play, I think the more contributions that he can have."

 

Before the injury, Kirby was 5-2 with a 2.28 earned run average and a .233 batting average against in 59.1 innings pitched. Though he boasts 75 strikeouts this season, his 30 walks are a concern, especially considering he surrendered only 33 walks last season in 113.1 innings on his way to first team All-America honors.

 

With honing his control in mind, Kirby was happy with what he got out of the two simulated innings.

 

"I threw strikes," said Kirby, a 6-foot-2, 200-pound junior from Midlothian. "That's been kind of the one thing all year that I've struggled with. I didn't have a walk (Monday). That's all I wanted to do is throw the ball down the middle and get hit."

 

Though he was expected by most analysts to be taken in the draft somewhere between the 17th and 29th picks, Kirby was just relieved to put the draft process behind him.

 

"It was a long wait," Kirby said. "I think my mom was more nervous than me. I kind of understood the process and knew I didn't pitch as well I could've this year, and with the lat injury some things changed, but it was very exciting.

 

"It's good to have it over. Now, we can focus on Omaha. It's been a real special year for this team. It's good to bring the focus back to these guys and what they've accomplished."

 

Sborz, a 6-3, 225-pound native of McLean, was similarly happy to move on from the welcome distraction of the draft. He said he got a call from the Dodgers around the 70th pick in the draft, when a team representative asked him if he wanted to sign with the Dodgers.

 

Sborz (4-2, 1.95 ERA, tied for Atlantic Coast Conference lead with 14 saves) didn't hesitate to answer in the affirmative.

 

"Just knowing beforehand, you kind of get those butterflies in the stomach," Sborz said.

 

While Kirby's muscle strain represented his most serious injury issue, he also had to endure a case of mononucleosis while he was out. He lost 15 pounds, but managed to regain the weight.

 

"I guess if you're going to get it, get it while you're hurt," Kirby said.

 

Kirby's absence gave sophomore Connor Jones (7-2, 2.96), a Virginia Beach native, the opportunity to slide into Kirby's coveted Friday night starter role. Jones excelled at the top of the rotation, going 3-0 and pitching at least seven innings in each of his seven starts as the No. 1 starter, while giving up more than three earned runs in only one of the starts.

 

Jones' development was no surprise to Kirby, who could see it coming even when Jones struggled in a couple of midseason starts prior to Kirby's injury.

 

"When you look at the numbers, you don't see how well he'd pitched," Kirby said. "A lot of the hits that he'd given up didn't make it past Kenny Towns at third base."

 

Despite Kirby showing significant signs of improvement, O'Connor isn't going to push his ace. O'Connor's designs to have Kirby first come out of the bullpen at the College World Series are accompanied by the thought Kirby could continue to stretch his arm out more if U.Va. hangs around in Omaha a while. Kirby hasn't played a relief role since his freshman year in 2013.

 

"He's just not built up enough we feel to go deep in a game," O'Connor said. "Maybe we'd look at him in a clean inning, a fresh start in a fresh inning to maybe help us out of the bullpen."

 

At least outwardly, Kirby isn't concerned about his role in Omaha. He said he doesn't have any expectations for his own performance. He's not losing any sleep over what critical observers may think of his chances of pitching well on such a big stage after such a long layoff.

 

"I'm not pitching for them," Kirby said. "I'm pitching for the team."

[LouisEly]

You can bet that Allemand is on his way to Appleton to take the spot of Gatewood, who is on his way to Helena. Hopefully Gatewood learned a few things in his struggles and takes those things to Helena to work on.

[wichmae]

Brewers Canadian scout Jay Lapp tweeted out Demi is a Brewer. Not sure if that means he has signed or what.

[narwhalattack]

Brewers Canadian scout Jay Lapp tweeted out Demi is a Brewer. Not sure if that means he has signed or what.

 

I think he signed.

[wichmae]

Brewers Canadian scout Jay Lapp tweeted out Demi is a Brewer. Not sure if that means he has signed or what.

 

I think he signed.

That's what I gathered too.

[SRB]

Having read up on all/most of our picks more closely, I'm starting to think Nathan Kirby could end up being the real pick of the draft.

[Mass Haas]

AUDIO via the Mike Heller Show: (go to the 25:20 minute mark) - Chuck Wells, the high school coach of Brewers first round pick Trent Clark

[Mass Haas]

VIDEO: 5th round IF Blake Allemand in the Texas A&M studios for a post-draft interview

[Mass Haas]

AUDIO: Baseball America Team-by-Team Podcast -- (Brewers discussion at 1 hour, 21 minute mark)

[SRB]

AUDIO: Baseball America Team-by-Team Podcast -- (Brewers discussion at 1 hour, 21 minute mark)

 

Can someone explain to me why it is so unlikely that one of the post-Round 10 guys signs? It doesn't seem impossible that the Brewers could have enough slot money left over to offer one of those guys >$700k, which is the range for the highest post-10 bonuses under the new rules so is not unprecedented. Carlos Rodon allegedly asked for $700k to sign and the Brewers wouldn't give it to him. If (big if) they think any of these guys is worth that, I don't see why they couldn't make it work.

[TheCrew07]

AUDIO: Baseball America Team-by-Team Podcast -- (Brewers discussion at 1 hour, 21 minute mark)

 

Can someone explain to me why it is so unlikely that one of the post-Round 10 guys signs? It doesn't seem impossible that the Brewers could have enough slot money left over to offer one of those guys >$700k, which is the range for the highest post-10 bonuses under the new rules so is not unprecedented. Carlos Rodon allegedly asked for $700k to sign and the Brewers wouldn't give it to him. If (big if) they think any of these guys is worth that, I don't see why they couldn't make it work.

 

Eye Black has covered it numerous times but given the total pool the Brewers started with they can offer one of those guys less than 400k before having to give up next year's 1st round draft pick. Given where the Brewers will likely be drafting next year, and given it's supposed to be a good draft year, I don't see grabbing a fringe 1st round pick this year to give up a top 10 pick next year.

 

That's not good value from a talent perspective.

[LouisEly]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/26066708/

 

"The signing bonuses for a team's selections in the first 10 rounds, plus any bonus greater than $100,000 for a player taken after the 10th round, will apply toward the bonus-pool total."

 

The way that I understand this, if a team under-spends on it's first 10-round picks compared to the total pool available it can use the amount not spent on players drafted after the 10th round. For example, the Brewers total pool is $7.743M. They can go over that by up to 5% - which would be the $387,190 that Eye Black referenced. However... if they only spend $7M of the $7.743M bonus pool on their first 10-round picks, they can use the unspent $743K on picks after the 10th round. In addition, the first $100K of signing bonus of picks after the 10th round is exempt from the pool.

 

In that scenario, the Brewers could spend up to $1.23M on a pick after the 10th round - $743K left over from the first 10-rounds, $387K for the max overage, plus the $100K limit exempt from the bonus pool.

 

EDIT: It's unlikely that the Brewers will have $743K left over - that was just an example for illustration purposes. But if they have $400K left over, then they could spend $887K on a player drafted after the 10th round.

[wichmae]

McCalvy just tweeted out Clark will sign slightly north of slot.

[MrTPlush]

Going out on a limp here, but I am pretty sure no team is going to hand out $500k+ for a guy after the 10th round. If they though that highly of a player they would have been drafted earlier.

[SRB]

Going out on a limp here, but I am pretty sure no team is going to hand out $500k+ for a guy after the 10th round. If they though that highly of a player they would have been drafted earlier.

 

Teams have done it in the past. For example, in the 2013 draft, the Blue Jays gave Rowdy Tellez $850k in Round 30, and Jake Brentz $700k in Round 11. That same year the Cardinals gave Steven Farinaro $750k in Round 11. Can't find if anybody bested the Tellez bonus for the 2014 draft. The rumor (not sure of the ultimate source) is that Rodon wanted a deal in that range, $700k, back in 2011.

 

I feel like the Brewers will be saving a lot of money in Round 5 and can probably squeeze some extra money out of most of the college players they picked after Round 6, $700k-$800k doesn't seem that far-fetched but maybe I'm wrong.

 

FWIW, that year BA had Tellez ranked as the #64 prospect going into the draft, and Brentz #81.

 

Here's a BA blurb from back in 2013 explaining what the Cardinals did:

 

The Cardinals officially have signed 11th-rounder Steven Farinaro for $750,000. Since the new draft rules came into play last year, that’s the most ever for a player drafted after the 10th round. Ty Bashlor, the Mets’ 11th-rounder in 2013, held the previous record with a $550,000 bonus.

 

The assigned value for all picks after the 10th round is $100,000. As a result, $650,000 of Farinaro’s bonus will count towards St. Louis’ $6,907,900 bonus pool for the first 10 rounds. The Cardinals previously had spent $325,500 less than their allotment, so Farinaro’s signing will take them $324,500 above their pool, resulting in a tax penalty of $243,375.

 

If St. Louis were to spend another $20,896 more than its pool (by signing a player after the 10th round for $120,896 or more), it would forfeit a first-round pick in the 2014 draft.

 

Farinaro is a 6-foot-2, 190-pound righthander from Head Royce High in Oakland. He usually pitches at 88-91 mph with his fastball but can run it up to 94, and he has a tight curveball. Scouts also laud his makeup.

 

A UCLA recruit, Farinaro also received $250,000 under MLB’s College Scholarship Plan, which eventually could bring the total value of his deal to $1 million.

[MrTPlush]

Going out on a limp here, but I am pretty sure no team is going to hand out $500k+ for a guy after the 10th round. If they though that highly of a player they would have been drafted earlier.

 

Teams have done it in the past. For example, in the 2013 draft, the Blue Jays gave Rowdy Tellez $850k in Round 30, and Jake Brentz $700k in Round 11. That same year the Cardinals gave Steven Farinaro $750k in Round 11. Can't find if anybody bested the Tellez bonus for the 2014 draft. The rumor (not sure of the ultimate source) is that Rodon wanted a deal in that range, $700k, back in 2011.

 

I feel like the Brewers will be saving a lot of money in Round 5 and can probably squeeze some extra money out of most of the college players they picked after Round 6, $700k-$800k doesn't seem that far-fetched but maybe I'm wrong.

 

By no means is it unheard of, but it takes a bunch of different events to make possible. The Tellez scenario was very unique...I don't think the Blue Jays thought they could sign him when they drafted him.

 

While they will save some money it will mostly be handed out to some of their top picks. Clark will get a slight chunk and the Canadian they took will get a hearty chunk himself if he will sign. 700k is realistic before some of their top picks gets over slot bonuses. A lot lower afterwards.

[SRB]

By no means is it unheard of, but it takes a bunch of different events to make possible. The Tellez scenario was very unique...I don't think the Blue Jays thought they could sign him when they drafted him.

 

While they will save some money it will mostly be handed out to some of their top picks. Clark will get a slight chunk and the Canadian they took will get a hearty chunk himself if he will sign. 700k is realistic before some of their top picks gets over slot bonuses. A lot lower afterwards.

 

They don't have to go $700k under slot, just $300-400k or whatever under slot and then you pay the financial overage penalty and add on the $100k post-round-10 slot value. They can go over slot with Clark and Orimoloye and a couple of the high schoolers and still make up that deficit. Their fifth round pick was a college senior.

 

It doesn't seem that unusual to me if multiple players did it in 2013 alone (after a quick search I couldn't find if there were any similar signing last year).

 

Hooper and Everett are most likely out of play, because they were potentially first round talents and would want >$1M. But a guy like India or Beck could snap at $700k, why not?

[clancyphile]

So, if they exceed the bonus pool, what happens?

[nate82]

So, if they exceed the bonus pool, what happens?

 

It depends on how much they exceed the bonus pool.

 

If they exceed it too much the Brewers will have to give up their first round pick next year.

[brwrsfan]

I believe this is accurate:

 

Team exceeds pool by 0-5% = 75% tax on the overage

Team exceeds pool by 5-10% = 75% tax on the overage, loss of next years first round draft pick

Team exceeds pool by 10-15% = 100% tax on overage, loss of next years first AND second round picks

Team exceeds pool by 15% or more = 100% tax on overage, loss of the next two first round picks

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/126797888/breakdown-of-2015-draft-signing-bonus-pools

[trwi7]

I believe this is accurate:

 

Team exceeds pool by 0-5% = 75% tax on the overage

Team exceeds pool by 5-10% = 75% tax on the overage, loss of next years first round draft pick

Team exceeds pool by 10-15% = 100% tax on overage, loss of next years first AND second round picks

Team exceeds pool by 15% or more = 100% tax on overage, loss of the next two first round picks

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/126797888/breakdown-of-2015-draft-signing-bonus-pools

 

Those are the worst community chest/chance cards in Monopoly.

[igor67]

That last one is pretty harsh, but looking at who the Brewers found in later rounds this year maybe not harsh enough. If you were say the Dodgers or Yankees and could be reasonably confident you'd be drafting in the back half of the first round the next couple of years and the tax was only an irritant wouldn't it be worth it particularly in a high talent draft to go after guys late even more than the Brewers did? How many extra top talents might a team hoard with that approach?

[WV Brew]

One of the advantages of drafting these guy low is that you bar the Cubs and Cardinals (or Dodgers, Yankees, etc.) from following that strategy.

[reillymcshane]

I believe this is accurate:

 

Team exceeds pool by 0-5% = 75% tax on the overage

Team exceeds pool by 5-10% = 75% tax on the overage, loss of next years first round draft pick

Team exceeds pool by 10-15% = 100% tax on overage, loss of next years first AND second round picks

Team exceeds pool by 15% or more = 100% tax on overage, loss of the next two first round picks

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/126797888/breakdown-of-2015-draft-signing-bonus-pools

 

Those are the worst community chest/chance cards in Monopoly.

nice.

 

when we were little we took those out of the game. everyone hated them.