What former Brewers are doing in 2015, and why it's time for Melvin to go

[brewcrewdue80]

I understand a lot of the anti-Melvin sentiment and I do think he needs to be out by the end of the season. However, I really disagree with the effort to trivialize the last 13 seasons and the positive things this team accomplished under Doug Melvin. The all or nothing attitude of you either win it all or you're nothing, 2nd=3rd=30th etc. needs to die. There are lesser accomplishments that make a season worthwhile even if the team doesn't win a World Series.

 

From 2003-2014 (12 seasons) the Brewers have finished with a .500 or better record 6 times, they've finished with a winning record 5 times. They've made 2 post-season appearances, 1 division title, they've advanced as far as the NLCS with one post-season series win out of three. They have a 6-9 post-season record.

 

In the previous 33 seasons the Brewers finished .500 or better 11 times, they finished with a winning record 10 times. They made 2 post-season appearances, 2 division titles, they advances as far as the World Series with one post-season series win out of three. They had a 8-9 post-season record.

 

This last 12 year stretch under Melvin has been more successful than the past 33 seasons even with the massive rebuild Melvin had oversee to start his tenure in Milwaukee. I would argue that it's not even fair to count 2003-2004 given the state of the roster when he took over.

 

Then to somehow decide to not count 2008 because they were only a Wild Card team is ridiculous. Wild Card teams go to the WS all the time. This isn't like being a #8 seed in the NBA playoffs. Anyone who makes the postseason in baseball has a chance, even now in the era of two WC teams per league. That was a good 90 win team, something we'd be happy with any season.

 

This team is in bad shape right now at the major league level, there's no question, but they have good talent at the low levels of the minors and they have some talented assets at the major league level that they can either build around or trade to acquire major prospects.

 

Gotta remember there's a thing called the Wildcard. One of Melvin's Post Season Appearances are due to that and not for winning the division.

 

There are 7 seasons in that previous 33 where the team won 86 games or more. 4 they won more than 90 and didn't make the Playoffs due to the system back then. I'll give them 6 added playoff appearances so 8 in 33 seasons. vs 2 in 12. He's on a worse pace than the franchise's past history. And that includes the first 9 years as a franchise winning less than 77games. Give them the new franchise building up you're now at 8 or 24seasons with Playoff appearances. Vs the 2 of 12.

[SomewhereInTime]

From 2003-2014 (12 seasons) the Brewers have finished with a .500 or better record 6 times, they've finished with a winning record 5 times. They've made 2 post-season appearances, 1 division title, they've advanced as far as the NLCS with one post-season series win out of three. They have a 6-9 post-season record.

When you put it like that, that kind of sucks.

 

In baseball's smallest market in an uncapped league, while having to work through a rebuild process for the first few years. It's not bad.

[adambr2]

After watching tonight's game, I've got to give Melvin credit. He's done a heck of a job rebuilding this franchise. The Royals have really turned a corner with his moves.

[MNBrew]

I agree with SomewhereInTime. It makes no sense to me to rip at all costs, from every angle, and at every possible chance the 2nd-most effective GM in club history for a good build and reasonably decent success over his tenure despite the current lousiness. Given all the factors, I think the Brewers have done pretty well under Doug Melvin. The depth of young talent hasn't been great for a while (since Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Hardy, Gallardo, etc. came up) & the last 10 months have been miserable for well-documented & well-discussed reasons. But outside of St. Louis, how many teams' GMs have a truly better track record? You can't just rattle off all the teams with big-to-ridiculous payrolls because they have dollars available (LA & NY & CHI & BOS' revenue streams, for instance!) that can create a safety net that MIL doesn't have -- those GMs can swing and miss (read: FAIL) more without paying a hefty price!

 

The GM's typically in the room but the Farm Director is in charge of the draft. In light of that, I still don't get why some on this board practically worship Jack Z. for his time here (textbook guy to blame for several good but undisciplined hitters, not to mention about zilch in the way of SP prospects beyond Yo) yet want to blame Melvin instead of Rod Nichols for the current state of the Brewers' talent pipeline.

 

When the Brewers were first building under Melvin, he filled holes with some fantastic nugget-mining that has continued (though less lately) over his whole tenure: Kolb, Turnbow, Podsednik, Axford, Henderson, Zach Duke... etc.... and turned some of those guys into other future assets (Axford now = Blazek).

 

Melvin's also been pretty darn successful with his trades. Very few trades have been duds. For any dud you can cite, there are more than enough plus-moves too tip the overall scales in his favor. I don't believe you can count the Sabathia, Greinke, & Marcum trades as obvious losses because those moves netted two playoff berths which we might still be yearning for (since '82) had he not made those trades. Keep in mind that Michael Brantley was no blue-chipper and took many years to get actually good. Escobar, for as good as he is now, his first full year was so lousy (after a great 2 months when he first came up at the end of '10) that many were ripping on Melvin for trading Hardy (not to mention treating him badly re: FA eligibility) when it let a kid who really couldn't hit well or get on base respectably at all expose all his flaws over a his first full MLB season. Escobar's first year or two in KC, he was no offensive gem. And we know Cain couldn't stay in the lineup for quite a while. Lawrie is quite ordinary (still more hype than fulfilled potential) when he actually manages to stay healthy. . . While in the meantime, Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Jeremy Jeffress, & Rob Bryson did nothing for their new organizations and Jake Odorizzi, while still young & promising, has hardly put it all together AND stayed healthy at the same time.. . . My point in this paragraph being that every team can cherry-pick a few obvious players given up in trades whom they'd want back. But on the whole, Melvin's trades have been far more winners than duds.

 

I'm not saying Brewer Fandom should say "this has been good enough" -- surely no one with the team is truly satisfied (noting that pleased and satisfied are two totally different things). In the post-'94 era, many things contribue to stacking the deck against the Brewers that weren't such significant factors in Harry Dalton's glory days (recalling that the '82 Brewers were talked about as having one of the AL's highest payrolls), mainly meaning those things on the economic playing field (Yankees & Dodgers' cable deals come to mind as the most glaring examples). . . .

 

I'm NOT saying Melvin deserves a pass. The current team isn't doing well -- as he's regularly said & claimed responsibility for -- and there's significant concern about its short- and long-term future building blocks. SomethingInTime is right that this ISN'T an all-or-nothing situation, as well as that the circumstances in MIL probably would've done in many lesser GMs. Doug Melvin may not be long for the GM chair anymore, and perhaps that change is needed (an opinion VERY well-voiced up to now). But these posts that continually bash him and seem convinced that he's nothing short of a complete franchise-ruining idiot are patently absurd.

[SomewhereInTime]

Well I'm glad I have some agreement. This is Major League baseball, not the NBA, not the NFL. It's an uncapped league where the big market, high payroll teams have a big advantage over the small market teams. And we're dead last in market size here in Milwaukee. Our payroll rankings during the Melvin years have been (starting this year and looking back) 19th, 16th, 18th, 10th, 17th, 18th, 17th, 15th, 19th, 24th, 27th, 30th, 28th

 

Luckily we've got a good owner, and have had a high amount of fan support in recent years with good attendance, but even with that, our payroll has gone from bottom of the barrel to below average. We draft and develop Fielder, and then watch him leave for free agency because we can't afford him. We trade for Greinke but can't resign him when his contract is running up and have to trade him for prospects, we trade for Sabbathia but can't afford to resign him when his contract is up, etc. etc. can't afford top free agents so we have to settle for Randy Wolf, Jeff Suppan etc., If you follow this team you know the deck is always stacked against us. There are going to be plenty of lean years between post season appearances.

 

When looking at the other small markets of MLB:

 

Kansas City Royals: Won the 2014 pennant, but only after a 28 year post season drought with just 7 winning seasons in that time period

 

Cleveland Indians: Success since 1995, 8 postseason appearances in 20 years with 2 pennants, 11 winning seasons, but only after a 41 year postseason drought.

 

Cincinnati Reds: 2 division titles and 1 WC since 2010, but only after a 14 year postseason drought, they haven't won a postseason series since 1995

 

Pittsburgh Pirates: back to back WC the last two seasons, but only after 20 straight losing seasons, Their WC "series" win in 2013 was their first since 1979. They haven't won a division title since reallignment.

 

Colorado Rockies: 7 winning seasons in 22 years 3 post season appearances and 2 postseason series wins.

 

Baltimore Orioles: 2014 Division champs, 2012 AL WC, after 14 straight losing seasons

 

Tampa Bay Rays: 4 postseason appearances since 2008, after 10 straight years of 90+ losses

 

In conclusion, small market teams in this system are going to lose, Melvin has been far from a failure for the Brewers during his tenure as GM.

[Invader3K]

In conclusion, small market teams in this system are going to lose, Melvin has been far from a failure for the Brewers during his tenure as GM.

 

I agree that Doug Melvin has had some successes. You are also correct that the deck will always be stacked against a team like Milwaukee, at least to a degree. However, that hasn't exactly been a secret for about the past 20 years of MLB history.

 

If nothing else, Melvin brought this team up from being a total failure and a joke, to being a relevant and respectable franchise. That said, I've been saying for the past two off-seasons that it was time to rebuild. I think it's now time for Melvin to move onto other things as well. He does bear some responsibility for the team currently being 24-41. How many other GMs would even still have a job with a similar record? Frankly, I thought he'd either be fired or step down right after the draft this past week.

 

Put him on the Brewers Wall of Fame if you want...heck, you can even give him a statue outside Miller Park someday. I don't care. Just bring in a new GM who is willing to take on a full rebuild, and who will also be straight up with ownership that we won't be winning anything for at least a couple years. I just hope Mr. Attanasio is willing to fully commit to what is really needed. I firmly believe our fanbase is strong enough to still support the team through a couple middling seasons, as long as there is some real plan that is evident along with a renewed silver lining.

[Pugger]

I pray if Melvin is given a pink slip we hire someone OUTSIDE of the organization from a team with a winning tradition and mindset. Perhaps a new perspective and new blood would do us a world of good. Something has to change because the status quo isn't working in Milwaukee.

[Raw Biz]

 

If nothing else, Melvin brought this team up from being a total failure and a joke, to being a relevant and respectable franchise. That said, I've been saying for the past two off-seasons that it was time to rebuild. I think it's now time for Melvin to move onto other things as well. He does bear some responsibility for the team currently being 24-41. How many other GMs would even still have a job with a similar record? Frankly, I thought he'd either be fired or step down right after the draft this past week.

 

This is the key for me. I like Doug Melvin. I think he's a good GM to have when you want to take your team from horrible to pretty good. Unfortunately, pretty good isn't cutting it anymore. We need to be great, and not just for one to two seasons, but for a prolonged period of time. I don't think Melvin is that type of GM. He doesn't seem to have a long-term vision.

 

Although part of me does think that he has changed and realizes we need to rebuild but Attanasio has it in his head that we can compete every year if we just "plug the holes from last year." Maybe Attanasio really has tied Melvin's hands. Regardless, I do think it's time for a change. I'm actually hoping that Ray Montgomery is being groomed for the job and that he already has someone lined up to take over his duties when he steps up.

[The stache]

I understand a lot of the anti-Melvin sentiment and I do think he needs to be out by the end of the season. However, I really disagree with the effort to trivialize the last 13 seasons and the positive things this team accomplished under Doug Melvin. The all or nothing attitude of you either win it all or you're nothing, 2nd=3rd=30th etc. needs to die. There are lesser accomplishments that make a season worthwhile even if the team doesn't win a World Series.

 

From 2003-2014 (12 seasons) the Brewers have finished with a .500 or better record 6 times, they've finished with a winning record 5 times. They've made 2 post-season appearances, 1 division title, they've advanced as far as the NLCS with one post-season series win out of three. They have a 6-9 post-season record.

 

In the previous 33 seasons the Brewers finished .500 or better 11 times, they finished with a winning record 10 times. They made 2 post-season appearances, 2 division titles, they advances as far as the World Series with one post-season series win out of three. They had a 8-9 post-season record.

 

This last 12 year stretch under Melvin has been more successful than the past 33 seasons even with the massive rebuild Melvin had oversee to start his tenure in Milwaukee. I would argue that it's not even fair to count 2003-2004 given the state of the roster when he took over.

 

Then to somehow decide to not count 2008 because they were only a Wild Card team is ridiculous. Wild Card teams go to the WS all the time. This isn't like being a #8 seed in the NBA playoffs. Anyone who makes the postseason in baseball has a chance, even now in the era of two WC teams per league. That was a good 90 win team, something we'd be happy with any season.

 

This team is in bad shape right now at the major league level, there's no question, but they have good talent at the low levels of the minors and they have some talented assets at the major league level that they can either build around or trade to acquire major prospects.

 

First of all, to respond to the bolded portion of your post. No, it absolutely does NOT need to die. When we are "hunky dory" with anything less than winning it all, it's time for a franchise to get the hell out of town. And that's where far too many Brewer fans still are. We have been so awful for so long, now that we are slightly less awful, that's seen as some beacon of light. Finishing above .500 doesn't warm the cockles of my heart, because so many teams do it every year. Is that what we're aspiring to?

 

And for the love of God, people, please stop with the "compared to the last 33 years" nonsense. The Brewers have been one of the biggest disappointments of all American professional sports franchises in the last fifty years. Whenever a comment is made "well, this 13 year run is better than what came before"....stop typing, and think about what you are saying. Because, in essence, here it is:

 

"In the aquarium that is Major League Baseball, the Seattle Pilots/Milwaukee Brewers have been the bottom feeders for the vast majority of their existence. For the last thirteen years, a couple times, we were not bottom feeders. One time, we were really good....in thirteen years. One other time, we were fairly good (and we made the playoffs ONLY because a pitcher we acquired had one of the greatest half-seasons by a starting pitcher in recent memory). Without CC Sabathia, we don't sniff the playoffs. Not even close. I'm not discounting it. I'm just not putting a lot of weight into it. Showing up at the dance means nothing if you spend the entire evening standing at the punch bowl.

 

Finishing above .500 is not something to be proud of. When that's viewed as a positive of "gee, look how far we've come!", things have been very, very bad.

 

I don't give a damn that we've finished above .500. Know how many of the thirty teams in Major League Baseball are above .500 right now? Seventeen of them. Finishing at .500 is NOTHING in today's game. It's not a success story. It's not a gold star on the report card. All that means is that you were slightly better than some, still a long way behind the best teams in baseball. The bottom line is that Doug Melvin has had the keys to the car for well over a decade, with an owner that is spending, comparatively, more than any prior owner in team history, and we are once again the bottom feeders of Major League Baseball. And six seasons of winning more games than we lost (which is no achievement) doesn't help to ease that fact.

 

I'm tired of rationalizing our failures. I'm tired of accepting one truly good season in thirteen as some sort of progress. Save from 1978 to 1983, the Brewers have been an abysmal failure of a franchise. We have won two post season series in 47 years. That is terrible. No, it's laughable.

 

You know who laugh at us? Fans of the Miami Marlins. They've been around half as long, and they've been terrible for most of their existence. Yet, they've won two World Series titles, the first in their fifth year of existence. Meanwhile, we've been here nearly half a century, and we haven't made it to the Series in 33 years.

 

We have only Philadelphia to thank for not being the WORST TEAM IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL. Right now. The Brewers are 24-42. We have a .285 OBP as a team. In another discussion about Matt Dominguez, I posted the team OBPs put up by the Astros in 2012, 2013 and 2014. All of them, including a 2013 team that lost 111 games, were better than the Brewers this season. That's what we are! We are 30th of 30 teams in baseball--dead last--in OBP. We are 27th in runs scored. Pitching? We are 28th in team ERA, with only Boston and Colorado (the thin air) worse than us. We are 26th in team WHIP. And, we are dead last in home runs allowed, having surrendered 80 in 66 games.

 

Logan Schafer.....should not be in the Major Leagues.

Elian Herrera....should not be in the Major Leagues.

Martin Maldonado should barely be in the Major Leagues.

Hector Gomez, Hernan Perez...how are these people wearing Major League uniforms?

 

This is where Doug Melvin has taken us. This is how he's built our franchise.

 

On August 19th last year, we were 71-55 after beating the Blue Jays. We went 11-25 the rest of the way, and we're 24-42 this season. We've gone 35-67 since August 19th last year. 32 games below .500.

 

Melvin is a cancer to this organization. From our minor league affiliates jumping ship with no warning (Melvin clueless to the coming punting of the Brewer organization), to ridiculous signings, to one terrible draft after another...he has completely handcuffed this franchise.

 

All that young talent we had, and we got one truly great season from them, because Dougie wanted to go out like John Elway, on top of the world.

 

But we should be overjoyed to have that memory, right?

 

We finished above .500 five times in thirteen years. Woo hoo!

[Invader3K]

The ax has to fall on Doug Melvin really soon, doesn't it? I mean, how can the owner keep watching this abysmal brand of baseball and say, "Well, it's not the GM's fault?"

 

If nothing else, change has to happen to signal to the fans that, "This is unacceptable and we're going to make changes to get better."

[The stache]

 

If nothing else, Melvin brought this team up from being a total failure and a joke, to being a relevant and respectable franchise.

 

If I called 1,000 random baseball fans on the phone, and asked them the following question:

 

"Are the Milwaukee Brewers a respectable franchise now?"

 

How many of those 1,000 people do you think would say "yes"?

 

I don't think the Brewers are respected. Not at all. I read other baseball boards. I think the people that actually study the game, as I do, and look at the big picture, do not feel that Milwaukee is a respectable team in the slightest.

 

Thirteen years Melvin has been here. We have won our division...once. And the NL Central isn't exactly the AL East. The Cardinals have been very good, but for the majority of those 13 years, the other teams have been bad. We've had the Cubs and Pirates (both terrible until the last two years or so for Pittsburgh, and Chicago this season). Then, we've had the Astros (LOL) and the Reds (at times, pretty good). If I did a statistical breakdown of the quality of competition within our own division, what do you think I'd find? We play divisional foes more than the other teams. Playing the Astros, Cubs and Pirates every year should at least get this team to .500 if we have anything on the ball. Why? Let's look.

 

Our one "great" season, 2011. We won 96 games. In our division, we had:

 

St. Louis 90-72 (won World Series)

Cincy 79-83

Chicago 71-91

Pittsburgh 72-90

Houston 56-106

 

Look how awful the rest of our division was that year.

 

Know how many 95 loss teams there were in our division between 2006 and 2013, when we finished above .500 4 times in 6 years? Ten, including five 100 loss teams.

 

With the addition of a second wild card, it's easier than ever to make the playoffs. Yet we're still not doing it. The last three years, there have been two wild card teams in the NL. A full third of the teams in each league make the playoffs. Yet we still have only two playoff appearances in 13 seasons under Melvin. And again, there's where we are now.

 

The Brewers a respected franchise? We like to think so, but I'd bet that if we asked people, we'd find a very different answer.

 

47 years. Zero World Series titles.

 

Zero.

 

And I no longer buy this cop out that it's so much harder for small market teams. Let's look at some teams with metro less than 3 mil, like Milwaukee.

 

St. Louis 43-21

Pittsburgh 37-27

Kansas City 36-25

Tampa Bay 36-30

Minnesota 34-30

San Diego 32-35

Cleveland 30-33

Cincinnati 29-35

Colorado 28-36

Milwaukee 24-42

 

I see several small market teams that will make the playoffs, and have at least a decent chance of winning it all. Of the ten markets below 3 million people, half are well above .500. Two others are within 3 games of .500, and then you have the three bottom feeders, of which we are the worst.

 

And if you look at those top five teams, what do they share in common? Some of the best minor league systems in the game.

[Invader3K]

I'm with you right there. I think if you judge Melvin over the context of his tenure, he has accomplished some positives...but, if you look at it over the context of baseball history, the shine has definitely worn off.

 

I really wonder what Mark Attanasio is thinking. I saw him at Miller Park last Saturday. I can't imagine he is happy at all.

[adambr2]

Weird that we never hear a peep anymore about the open-ended contract that Melvin had on the table in April.

 

Too late now as announcing a big multi-multi-year extension for Melvin right now in the midst of everything going on would look absolutely laughable.

[monty57]

Unfortunately, while Melvin will likely step down as GM after the season, he is probably going to stay on in some weird new role that will have him "advising" the new GM. Since Attanasio has seemingly unlimited faith in Melvin (except when he's bypassing him to sign a 30-something FA), the new GM will be a puppet getting his strings pulled one way by Attanasio and another way by Melvin, with no real authority of his own.

[BillScottCanRake]

I really wonder what Mark Attanasio is thinking. I saw him at Miller Park last Saturday. I can't imagine he is happy at all.

 

I can't imagine he is real happy, because ultimately he's the one person who is responsible for how his team is performing. He's at the top of the organization's command structure, so it's up to him to make sure all of his minions are performing to a reasonable expectation. It's also up to him to know his limits and make sure he's just the right amount of hands-on and hands-off. Right now, the failure of the on-field product is a reflection of how Attanasio is running the team. He isn't solely responsible, but he's ultimately responsible and the only one who has the power to change everything.

 

My biggest fear isn't that Attanasio keep or replace Melvin. My fear is Attanasio likes dabbling in the personnel side of things to the point that he neuter's whomever is GM and renders them ineffective. Or he hires someone who's less qualified because he's looking for someone who he can work closely with instead of someone to run the front office. Or how he runs the Brewers isn't conducive to winning consistently. Because if Attanasio's leadership is the root of the problem, that's a lot for the franchise to have to overcome.

 

Hopefully I'm wrong. I am hopeful that Attanasio can make whatever changes are necessary to move the franchise forward, whether that's hiring a new GM, keeping Melvin, whatever. I've already lived thru the alternatives, and they aren't pretty (I'm looking at you Wendy Selig-Prieb)

[adambr2]

Pst.....Doug...I figured out why your team is so bad. You have half of your payroll tied up in 4 replacement level players. Hope that helps.

[MNBrew]

 

If nothing else, Melvin brought this team up from being a total failure and a joke, to being a relevant and respectable franchise.

 

If I called 1,000 random baseball fans on the phone, and asked them the following question:

 

"Are the Milwaukee Brewers a respectable franchise now?"

 

How many of those 1,000 people do you think would say "yes"?

 

I don't think the Brewers are respected. Not at all. I read other baseball boards. I think the people that actually study the game, as I do, and look at the big picture, do not feel that Milwaukee is a respectable team in the slightest.

 

Thirteen years Melvin has been here. We have won our division...once. And the NL Central isn't exactly the AL East. The Cardinals have been very good, but for the majority of those 13 years, the other teams have been bad. We've had the Cubs and Pirates (both terrible until the last two years or so for Pittsburgh, and Chicago this season). Then, we've had the Astros (LOL) and the Reds (at times, pretty good). If I did a statistical breakdown of the quality of competition within our own division, what do you think I'd find? We play divisional foes more than the other teams. Playing the Astros, Cubs and Pirates every year should at least get this team to .500 if we have anything on the ball. Why? Let's look.

 

Our one "great" season, 2011. We won 96 games. In our division, we had:

 

St. Louis 90-72 (won World Series)

Cincy 79-83

Chicago 71-91

Pittsburgh 72-90

Houston 56-106

 

Look how awful the rest of our division was that year.

 

Know how many 95 loss teams there were in our division between 2006 and 2013, when we finished above .500 4 times in 6 years? Ten, including five 100 loss teams.

 

With the addition of a second wild card, it's easier than ever to make the playoffs. Yet we're still not doing it. The last three years, there have been two wild card teams in the NL. A full third of the teams in each league make the playoffs. Yet we still have only two playoff appearances in 13 seasons under Melvin. And again, there's where we are now.

 

The Brewers a respected franchise? We like to think so, but I'd bet that if we asked people, we'd find a very different answer.

 

47 years. Zero World Series titles.

 

Zero.

 

And I no longer buy this cop out that it's so much harder for small market teams. Let's look at some teams with metro less than 3 mil, like Milwaukee.

 

St. Louis 43-21

Pittsburgh 37-27

Kansas City 36-25

Tampa Bay 36-30

Minnesota 34-30

San Diego 32-35

Cleveland 30-33

Cincinnati 29-35

Colorado 28-36

Milwaukee 24-42

 

I see several small market teams that will make the playoffs, and have at least a decent chance of winning it all. Of the ten markets below 3 million people, half are well above .500. Two others are within 3 games of .500, and then you have the three bottom feeders, of which we are the worst.

 

And if you look at those top five teams, what do they share in common? Some of the best minor league systems in the game.

Holy cripes, 'Stache, exhale. It's hard not to get the impression that you hate Melvin and feel the Brewers' organizational history and cumulative approach/results combination is nothing short of shameful.

 

Two main points in response:

 

1) Your selective quote of Invader3K ignores his next sentence stating his overall agreement with you. His first sentence is dead-on accurate. However, do you really think he was saying the Brewers' franchise is viewed by anyone as respectable right now? Your emotionally charged rant sure suggests that. See the forest for the trees here, please: When Melvin came on board, the Brewers' organization was about at one of its lowest points ever. Melvin brought the right combination of patience and savvy experience, and he applied them well as he oversaw the rise and along the way made many right moves to get it going further yet in the right direction, then made selective moves to trade strong young assets for guys to put the team over the top when there was a realistic chance of making the posteason -- the same thing a large number of GMs do in that position. Then again, through most of last year, the Brewers' success certainly had them viewed as respectable and relevant -- a status justly earned yet again by a team whose record was a very strong 71-55 . . . . of course, until the bottom fell out (and it's still nowhere to be found). And I'm guessing we pretty much all know there's little if anything terribly respectable or relevant about the franchise just under a year later. Most builds are slow, but a collapse can happen quickly and cause everyone's views to change very quickly.

 

2) The list late in your post is a Johnny-Come-Lately list. You cite how the top 5 teams have some of the best minor-league systems in the game. And on one level, you've got great examples and make a compelling argument. Of course that's exactly where we'd want the Brewers to be, too. However, there are details that undermine at least the emphatic aspect of your point . . . . A year ago, Minnesota & San Diego have worse MLB records and Milwaukee's up near the very top. Of those 5, St. Louis & Tampa Bay have proven to be chronically good at drafting and developing. The other three? They built up those top farm systems through years and years of chronic, heinous losing. Where those other three are now is where the Brewers were about 10 years ago (well, KC is kinda where Yost's Brewers were in '08 before the near-collapse of that September). My point? Given where they've come from, those teams HAD BETTER BE in their present situations of 1) HAVING LOTS OF GREAT YOUNG TALENT and 2) HAVING HAD THAT TALENT LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE IT START TRANSLATING INTO WINNING AT THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL. . . . However, it's important not to lose sight of the fact that both KC & Pittsburgh went through decade-or-longer stretches of lousy MLB teams. Their winning trend at the MLB level is quite recent. Before this year Twins lost over 90 games the past 4 season, but before that had made the playoffs 6 out of the previous 9 seasons.

[SomewhereInTime]

I understand a lot of the anti-Melvin sentiment and I do think he needs to be out by the end of the season. However, I really disagree with the effort to trivialize the last 13 seasons and the positive things this team accomplished under Doug Melvin. The all or nothing attitude of you either win it all or you're nothing, 2nd=3rd=30th etc. needs to die. There are lesser accomplishments that make a season worthwhile even if the team doesn't win a World Series.

 

From 2003-2014 (12 seasons) the Brewers have finished with a .500 or better record 6 times, they've finished with a winning record 5 times. They've made 2 post-season appearances, 1 division title, they've advanced as far as the NLCS with one post-season series win out of three. They have a 6-9 post-season record.

 

In the previous 33 seasons the Brewers finished .500 or better 11 times, they finished with a winning record 10 times. They made 2 post-season appearances, 2 division titles, they advances as far as the World Series with one post-season series win out of three. They had a 8-9 post-season record.

 

This last 12 year stretch under Melvin has been more successful than the past 33 seasons even with the massive rebuild Melvin had oversee to start his tenure in Milwaukee. I would argue that it's not even fair to count 2003-2004 given the state of the roster when he took over.

 

Then to somehow decide to not count 2008 because they were only a Wild Card team is ridiculous. Wild Card teams go to the WS all the time. This isn't like being a #8 seed in the NBA playoffs. Anyone who makes the postseason in baseball has a chance, even now in the era of two WC teams per league. That was a good 90 win team, something we'd be happy with any season.

 

This team is in bad shape right now at the major league level, there's no question, but they have good talent at the low levels of the minors and they have some talented assets at the major league level that they can either build around or trade to acquire major prospects.

 

First of all, to respond to the bolded portion of your post. No, it absolutely does NOT need to die. When we are "hunky dory" with anything less than winning it all, it's time for a franchise to get the hell out of town. And that's where far too many Brewer fans still are. We have been so awful for so long, now that we are slightly less awful, that's seen as some beacon of light. Finishing above .500 doesn't warm the cockles of my heart, because so many teams do it every year. Is that what we're aspiring to?

 

And for the love of God, people, please stop with the "compared to the last 33 years" nonsense. The Brewers have been one of the biggest disappointments of all American professional sports franchises in the last fifty years. Whenever a comment is made "well, this 13 year run is better than what came before"....stop typing, and think about what you are saying. Because, in essence, here it is:

 

"In the aquarium that is Major League Baseball, the Seattle Pilots/Milwaukee Brewers have been the bottom feeders for the vast majority of their existence. For the last thirteen years, a couple times, we were not bottom feeders. One time, we were really good....in thirteen years. One other time, we were fairly good (and we made the playoffs ONLY because a pitcher we acquired had one of the greatest half-seasons by a starting pitcher in recent memory). Without CC Sabathia, we don't sniff the playoffs. Not even close. I'm not discounting it. I'm just not putting a lot of weight into it. Showing up at the dance means nothing if you spend the entire evening standing at the punch bowl.

 

Finishing above .500 is not something to be proud of. When that's viewed as a positive of "gee, look how far we've come!", things have been very, very bad.

 

I don't give a damn that we've finished above .500. Know how many of the thirty teams in Major League Baseball are above .500 right now? Seventeen of them. Finishing at .500 is NOTHING in today's game. It's not a success story. It's not a gold star on the report card. All that means is that you were slightly better than some, still a long way behind the best teams in baseball. The bottom line is that Doug Melvin has had the keys to the car for well over a decade, with an owner that is spending, comparatively, more than any prior owner in team history, and we are once again the bottom feeders of Major League Baseball. And six seasons of winning more games than we lost (which is no achievement) doesn't help to ease that fact.

 

I'm tired of rationalizing our failures. I'm tired of accepting one truly good season in thirteen as some sort of progress. Save from 1978 to 1983, the Brewers have been an abysmal failure of a franchise. We have won two post season series in 47 years. That is terrible. No, it's laughable.

 

You know who laugh at us? Fans of the Miami Marlins. They've been around half as long, and they've been terrible for most of their existence. Yet, they've won two World Series titles, the first in their fifth year of existence. Meanwhile, we've been here nearly half a century, and we haven't made it to the Series in 33 years.

 

We have only Philadelphia to thank for not being the WORST TEAM IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL. Right now. The Brewers are 24-42. We have a .285 OBP as a team. In another discussion about Matt Dominguez, I posted the team OBPs put up by the Astros in 2012, 2013 and 2014. All of them, including a 2013 team that lost 111 games, were better than the Brewers this season. That's what we are! We are 30th of 30 teams in baseball--dead last--in OBP. We are 27th in runs scored. Pitching? We are 28th in team ERA, with only Boston and Colorado (the thin air) worse than us. We are 26th in team WHIP. And, we are dead last in home runs allowed, having surrendered 80 in 66 games.

 

Logan Schafer.....should not be in the Major Leagues.

Elian Herrera....should not be in the Major Leagues.

Martin Maldonado should barely be in the Major Leagues.

Hector Gomez, Hernan Perez...how are these people wearing Major League uniforms?

 

This is where Doug Melvin has taken us. This is how he's built our franchise.

 

On August 19th last year, we were 71-55 after beating the Blue Jays. We went 11-25 the rest of the way, and we're 24-42 this season. We've gone 35-67 since August 19th last year. 32 games below .500.

 

Melvin is a cancer to this organization. From our minor league affiliates jumping ship with no warning (Melvin clueless to the coming punting of the Brewer organization), to ridiculous signings, to one terrible draft after another...he has completely handcuffed this franchise.

 

All that young talent we had, and we got one truly great season from them, because Dougie wanted to go out like John Elway, on top of the world.

 

But we should be overjoyed to have that memory, right?

 

We finished above .500 five times in thirteen years. Woo hoo!

 

Yeah, a lot of nice words. I wish we had that genius GM and staff and could compete for WS every season. But I understand the way major league baseball works, it's unlike other major professional sports leagues in the US, there is a massive disadvantage for small market teams in this game. There is zero room for error in the 30th largest market in the league. The small market teams that are in good shape right now are often there after decades of losing.

 

I'm a realist, of course I want the Brewers to be a team that can win it all every year, but I understand that's not realistic. Fielding a good number of competitive teams and making the post season a couple times isn't the big goal but it's not nothing. How many other GM's enter the same situation Melvin did and do a lot better? Maybe a few, but plenty do worse.

 

The common theme for teams in the same shoes as the Brewers is windows. These teams need to rebuild and that sets up a window to compete. Trying to compete every year as a small market team can lead to where we are now, picking in the middle and lower in the draft year after year hurts our farm system along with trading away prospects for now. But if you don't try to maximize your chances in certain years you end up with long strings for average at best seasons. This is the continual problem that small market teams run into.

 

Hitting a long succession of successful years generally either takes a lot of money or a lot of losing leading up to it. We don't have a lot of money and the team is bad again so it's gonna be a few years of losing baseball and with Melvin getting up there in age, it's gonna be with a new regime. Hopefully soon we have another team that can have winning seasons and compete year after year. But after that window has closed it doesn't mean it's a massive failure if they don't win a bunch of WS.

 

It's small market baseball, it is what it is, this isn't the NFL or NBA where good management is the only difference between winning every year and losing. As long as economic factors are in play, a realistic Brewers fan knows where they stand and knows the long odds stacked against us every year.

[SomewhereInTime]

Also in response to this,

 

"And I no longer buy this cop out that it's so much harder for small market teams. Let's look at some teams with metro less than 3 mil, like Milwaukee.

 

St. Louis 43-21

Pittsburgh 37-27

Kansas City 36-25

Tampa Bay 36-30

Minnesota 34-30

San Diego 32-35

Cleveland 30-33

Cincinnati 29-35

Colorado 28-36

Milwaukee 24-42

 

I see several small market teams that will make the playoffs, and have at least a decent chance of winning it all. Of the ten markets below 3 million people, half are well above .500. Two others are within 3 games of .500, and then you have the three bottom feeders, of which we are the worst.

 

And if you look at those top five teams, what do they share in common? Some of the best minor league systems in the game."

 

What did it take for these teams to be where they are?

Pittsburgh: Decades of losing seasons, and failed rebuild attempts

Kansas City: Same thing

Tampa Bay: lots of losing seasons

Minnesota: four straight 90+ loss seasons to rebuild a farm system

San Diego: four straight losing seasons and no post season since '06

Cleveland: still in a rebuild and will probably still be a losing team

Cincy: A decade+ of losing seasons built them a small window and now it may be closed

Colorado: still rebuilding and almost certainly heading for another losing season

 

St. Louis is the outlier, yeah everyone wishes their team was ran as well as St. Louis.

 

It's laughable to say it's not harder for small market teams to compete. Big market teams not only have access to the top free agents on the market to lead their rotations and fill the middle of their lineups, but they also get the chance to sign the best international players (Puig, Tanaka, etc.) It's simple economics.

[WV Brew]

Forbes list of revenues by team

 

.... 5) Cubs, 6) Cardinals, 17) Pirates, 20) Reds, 21) Brewers

 

The Cubs and Cardinals have significantly more resources to pay for scouting and development. You have to figure that in when evaluating the front office. Pirates are up now but we'll see if they stay there. I doubt it. Most likely they will have a run like the Brewers did and then fade again.

[reillymcshane]

Forbes list of revenues by team

 

.... 5) Cubs, 6) Cardinals, 17) Pirates, 20) Reds, 21) Brewers

 

The Cubs and Cardinals have significantly more resources to pay for scouting and development. You have to figure that in when evaluating the front office. Pirates are up now but we'll see if they stay there. I doubt it. Most likely they will have a run like the Brewers did and then fade again.

With the Cubs, you can really see the money come into play with international signings. Soler got $30M a few years ago. In 2013, they spent something like $10M, signing a bunch of top guys.

[WV Brew]

Since I'm retired and I have nothing in particular to do this morning, I did a regression of revenues from the Forbes' table above on wins during the Melvin era. You end up with 841 + 0.63*Revenues. Yes, market size does matter. Melvin has won exactly 3 games less than you would have expected based on the Brewers' 2015 revenues. Now revenues were not always the same over that period so that's a factor you have to look at.

 

Who is really doing good and bad?

 

Good. Cardinals lead with 96 more wins than you would have expected based on revenues. Oakland has 88 and the Braves 80. Look, a list of the teams that most people think are well managed.

 

Bad. Royals are the worst. 96 less wins than forecasted by revenues. Second Pirates with 78 less. Then the Mariners at 70.

 

So anyway, Melvin, by this measure, is an average GM. This is about what I thought. When he is replaced, the Brewers are probably just as likely to get a worse GM as a better one.

[xisxisxis]

Melvin has won exactly 3 games less than you would have expected based on the Brewers' 2015 revenues.

 

1) You need to take yearly revenues and compare it to each years record and then sum across to be the most accurate.

 

2) So based on your numbers anybody could have been GM in those 12 years and basically got the same record. Or is the conclusion that Melvin isn't a complete waste of space because he didn't do worse than revenue alone would indicate? funny in my entire career I've never had a yearly review where I was asked if I was better at my job than just flipping a coin. Because that's what dougie is. He's billions of coin tosses to get you to a 50:50 ratio of heads and tails. He isn't adding any intelligence to the job he's just been nothing more than a statistical validation of randomness and chance. If you think the hiring process is random and who applies is random then you will possibly end up with a worse GM or a better GM. Now if the people in charge were smart and knew how to identify talent then maybe we could be an Oakland, or St. Louis or Atlanta by hiring a good GM, but unfortunately I don't see that level of intelligence in the Brewers ownership so we are probably better off sticking with Melvin and waiting for chance to get us another playoff team and a first round exit...

[WV Brew]

xisxisxis--

 

Agree with 1. If somebody wants to try that welcome to it.

 

2) No. He's competing against other GM's not random people. I'm saying the Brewers have to hire another GM when Melvin goes. What's the likelihood that the new GM will be better? They're not getting the talent in St. Louis, Oakland or Atlanta. They tried one of the stringers on with Taylor and it didn't work out. You could say you're tired and just want to roll the dice and see if it gets better, I guess that's valid. It probably won't work though because it is hard to win in a small market consistently. I tried to show in a previous post that other Brewer GM's have not been better than Melvin except maybe Dalton, who I think did a lot of the things Melvin is criticised for. In any case, Melvin will be out probably sooner than later just for age. Maybe he's kicked upstairs and just does administrative stuff.