What former Brewers are doing in 2015, and why it's time for Melvin to go

[DocLuna7]

I will remain a Brewers fan but I won't buy any more tickets until at the very least Doug Melvin is fired. Our extended family always gets together for one game a year, so tickets are already bought for that game in August, other than that I won't spend a dime on Brewers tickets or merchandise.

 

I'll watch the games on TV, especially to see my favorite players like Segura & Scooter. Looking forward to seeing Wagner pitch. Hoping we get some exciting prospects in trades this year. Excited about the possibility of a Top 3 Draft pick in 2016

 

I think this is a really good thread and hope it won't get shut down. I also agree with you that DM's time is up and we need some new blood making personnel decisions with this franchise. That being said, what exactly will a boycott accomplish? I am as frustrated as anyone with this year's team and the overall direction of the franchise. I agree with you that some major heads need to roll and that this organization needs to completely refocus its mentality on everything from drafting to marketing. That being said, I still go to just about every game. Bad team or not, there are simply few things that I find so enjoyable as watching a baseball game. I could definitely stand to end some of the gimmicky predictable (and I would say corporate-esque) stuff that caters to the average casual fan which goes on at Brewers games these days but other than that I have enjoyed myself at the yard this season despite the product on the field.

[umphrey]

We didn't draft any good players from 2009-2011 and those guys are supposed to be maturing into MLB players right now. Losing the pick for Lohse is hurting our system right now. There are some years in there post 2011 where we really should have traded and added prospects and had early picks but we didn't. It seems like we've had a losing team for 3.5 years now and the only high pick we've had is Kodi.

[homer]

the "true fan" argument is about as grating as the "obviously you never played ball" argument

[brewmann04]

losing that pick for Loshe could have hurt or we could have drafted another Jeb Bradley.

[SoupTown]

I wonder how the Brewers would look if they simply let every guy go year to year - and they did not trade prospects for MLB guys. If they trade prospects, trade for other prospects. Like now we should trade one of our middle infield guys for a similar 3rd base guy.

 

My point is the arby system makes you pay for what the guy did last year. That is, management are always ahead of the curve. And you never, ever have dud contracts. And I would be happy to keep our good guys for six years (actually, it is always up to 6.9). And if we are too dumb to draft and develop and international sign well, you just end up really bad. This current 'really bad' where we are having old and expensive and forward expensive contracts really breaks my heart.

[The stache]

Melvin has certainly made his share of mistakes. Let's not forget though what a difficult job this is. Only Harry Dalton has a better winning percentage as GM than Doug.

 

Marvin Milkes 40%

Frank Lane 42%

Jim Wilson 46%

Jim Baumer 41%

Harry Dalton 52%

Sal Bando 48%

Dean Taylor 42%

Doug Melvin 49%

 

It's hard to win as a Brewers' GM. Melvin has probably been better than most and it's hardly a sure thing that a replacement would be better.

 

So the measuring stick we're using for Doug Melvin is all the other GMs the Brewers have had? I'm sorry, but that's pretty weak. This franchise came to Milwaukee over 41 years ago, and we're made it to one World Series, and we've been to the playoffs, what, four times in 41+ years?

 

How about, instead, you compare Melvin against GMs from similar small market franchises?

 

If you have competent people in place, you can win, and at least be competitive on a consistent basis. Maybe you're not winning the World Series every year, but an occasional appearance in the Series would be nice.

[The stache]

My patience is gone. I have already walked away from the Brewers,

 

Seriously? Pretty much stopped reading your long post after this statement because apparently you were never really a fan to begin with.

 

I've been a Brewer fan for close to 40 years. I've seen much worse than this.

 

I've been a fan of the Brewers since I was about 7 years old, about 1977/78. Calling somebody out for not being a "true fan" is pretty cold, man. I'm as diehard a fan as there is, but I've stopped watching the games of late because I can't stomach what this team has become.

[The stache]

Guys, my initial post was written just as I was starting to get sick..real sick. For the past few days, I've been throwing up everything I've had to eat or drink, so I apologize if it was a bit disjointed. I'm a bit better tonight...hoping to keep some rice and apple sauce down /fingers crossed.

 

Let me try to be a little more clear. You have to remember that my perspective is not only one of being a Brewers fan since about 1978 (and a diehard one at that), but a Brewers fan living 15 minutes from Arlington, Texas, where the Texas Rangers play.

 

Everything that Doug Melvin has done, he did while he was the GM in Texas, too. So, not only have I seen his efforts up close for going on thirteen years as a Brewers fan, I got to see his bumbling moves on the ten o'clock news for years while he was with the Rangers. Those Rangers were a carbon copy of the Brewers-a team that occasionally made the playoffs, but was really never a threat to go all the way. Those Rangers teams were loaded with offense, too. They could hit the ball out of the park with any team in the Majors. But they lacked fundamentals. They made dumb mistakes running the bases. Defensively, they were pretty much inept, though they did have the best catcher in baseball, who Melvin inherited.

 

When I saw we need to build a strong core, I mean to include starting pitching within that construct. And it is clear, or at least, it should be, that Doug Melvin is incapable of finding pitching talent. Either he is incapable, or he is incapable of hiring people to accurately gauge pitching talent at a young age. Either way, the end result is the same. In order to get those great pitchers you need to challenge for a world title, you have to trade away a boat load of prospects.

 

There is no way we were going to keep all those players I cited, and nowhere was I suggesting that we could have. It was merely a way of showing how much talent he's let go. No, we couldn't have known what Cruz was going to do. And perhaps we wouldn't have waited for Brantley to blossom the way he did. Maybe they would have dumped him like JJ Hardy after one bad season. Who knows. The point is, though, that Melvin is a poor judge of pitching, which is one half of your baseball team. And, too often the moves he does make are wasteful.

 

Now, it sucks being a small market team. We'll never compete financially with the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. But it is very possible for a small market team to compete, and win, with the right management team in place. They haven't won a World Series since 1989, and they're having a down year, but look at what the Oakland A's have done since 2000. While we've made two playoff appearances in the new millennium, they've made the playoffs eight times. And a 19-32 record isn't so hot (not much better than Milwaukee), but I'd bet the house that they rebound before we do. The three years prior, they made the playoffs, winning 88, 96 and 94 games. Unlike the Brewers, they draft and develop great young pitchers. When they get hurt, or traded, they find more. I mean, in the early 2000s, the A's had Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder. Those three won 485 games, and had Mulder not blown out his rotator cuff after winning 88 games in 5 seasons, that total would have been higher. They also brought Huston Street to the Majors, and he's at 290 saves. More recently, they've drafted studs A.J. Griffin, Jarrod Parker and Sonny Gray. Griffin goes down and needs Tommy John after going 21-11 with a 3.60 ERA, 235 K in 282 IP, and Jarrod Parker steps up. Parker goes 25-16 over a few seasons with a 3.68 ERA, and needs not one, but two Tommy John surgeries. Eventually, hopefully, one of them at least comes back. They'll join Sonny Gray, one of the best young pitchers in the game.

 

Look, too, at the Twins. After a pretty bad four year run, they're 28-19, a game out of first place. They're a home grown club, too. No big trades there. Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Torii Hunter...all drafted by the Twins. Kyle Gibson, their best pitcher, drafted by the Twins. And wait until their minor league players start coming up. The Twins system is stacked. The #1 prospect in baseball, Byron Buxton, a masher third baseman in Miguel Sano (#11 MLB.com prospect), two starters in Alex Meyer and Jose Berrios--both top 30 prospects in baseball, shortstop Nick Gordon is the #31 prospect in the game, and Kohl Stewart is the #33 prospect. Six of the top 33 prospects in baseball are in Minnesota. Milwaukee has one top 100 prospect.

 

The Twins and A's haven't won it all lately. But I think every Brewers fan would trade their level of success for our lack of.

 

As far as our making the playoffs in 2008 goes, it was basically a miracle. CC Sabathia had one of the best half-seasons by a Major League starter in recent history. If he pitches just great, we don't make the playoffs. He started 17 games for Milwaukee, and 15 of those were quality starts (6 innings or more pitched, 3 or fewer earned runs allowed). By comparison, in 50 games this year, we have 18 quality starts. Sabathia pitched out of his mind, and basically willed us into the post season. We sneaked in. We've really only had one great season in the thirteen that Doug Melvin has been here.

 

It's just time for him, and this entire coaching staff, to go. I hope Mark Attanasio has the wisdom, and the courage, to make this move.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I guess I don't get the frustration with DM now. If someone was already frustrated with him due to the philosophy they've had by trading away the future to maximize the present, that's rational. However, f someone agrees with that philosophy, this season is simply the payback for what was traded away. No reason to be anymore frustrated now than before IMO.

 

I'm not necessarily opposed to what they did. I really enjoyed 08 & 11. I just hope they draft better and they seem to be on a better track there. I also hope they realize they aren't going to win in any near term timeframe so they need to be aggressive sellers of any sale able part.

 

Also...to the poster who compared how he runs money compared to baseball, I don't think the analogy works. If you run money and wind up in the 50th percentile every year, you'll actually do quite well since you won't have blown your clients up. Many may do better in a given year but you'll be well ahead over a long time. I'd rather have you running my money than running my baseball team ;-) In baseball, 50 pct every year means no flags on the wall.

[WV Brew]

Here you go 'stash:

 

During Melvin's tenure, Brewers have won 48.82% of their games. For the next smallest cities during that time:

 

KC: 44.30%, Clev: 49.07%, Cinc: 49.00%, Pitt: 44.90%

 

So Melvin is squarely in the middle and Milwaukee has greater challenges than some of these towns in terms of broadcast revenues. Now I'm not a huge Melvin backer but he has gotten decent results during his tenure given the circumstances. He will have to be replaced by somebody. That somebody will have a lot of hurdles to fielding a winning team. I wish baseball were fairer but it's not.

[The stache]

I guess I don't get the frustration with DM now. If someone was already frustrated with him due to the philosophy they've had by trading away the future to maximize the present, that's rational. However, f someone agrees with that philosophy, this season is simply the payback for what was traded away. No reason to be anymore frustrated now than before IMO.

 

I'm not necessarily opposed to what they did. I really enjoyed 08 & 11. I just hope they draft better and they seem to be on a better track there. I also hope they realize they aren't going to win in any near term timeframe so they need to be aggressive sellers of any sale able part.

 

Also...to the poster who compared how he runs money compared to baseball, I don't think the analogy works. If you run money and wind up in the 50th percentile every year, you'll actually do quite well since you won't have blown your clients up. Many may do better in a given year but you'll be well ahead over a long time. I'd rather have you running my money than running my baseball team ;-) In baseball, 50 pct every year means no flags on the wall.

 

The frustration is 13 years into Melvin's tenure, we're about as bad now as we were when he came in, with nothing to show for it. And considering how easy it is to make it into the playoffs in the Major Leagues now, to not at least have more appearances is an embarrassment.

 

"I enjoyed '08 and '11"

 

So because we made the briefest playoff appearance in history one year, and had one decent playoff run in another, you're willing to gloss over the other 11 years where we did nothing? You referenced the money analogy being a bad one (as a stockbroker, I agree). But show me anywhere in the world, any industry, any sport, where success in two years out of thirteen is at all acceptable. And I have a hard time calling 2008 a success. We caught lightning in a bottle (Sabathia's unbelievable second half), and that lightning dried up once we made our five minute appearance in October.

 

Herein, folks, is the difference between the Brewers and the Packers. I love both teams, so please don't even bother questioning my loyalty. But the Packers are winners, and the Brewers are losers.

 

It's that simple. Do you think two playoff appearances in a thirteen year span would stand in Green Bay now? No way. I realize the Packers stunk in the 70s and 80s. I also realize that Green Bay had just had perhaps the greatest dynasty in NFL history in the Lombardi years, winning five World Championships, including the first two Super Bowls. But even when the Packers were stinking it up in those two decades, how long did they stick with any one general manager? Not long. Nowhere near thirteen years. Even then, the Packers didn't settle.

 

Here are the Packer executives post Lombardi:

 

Phil Bengston 1969-1970 Head Coach, General Manager

Dan Devine 1971-1974 Head Coach, General Manager

Bart Starr 1975-1980 Head Coach, General Manager

Tom Miller 1981-1983 General Manager

Forrest Gregg 1984-1986 Head Coach, General Manager

Tom Braatz 1987-1991 Executive V.P, Director of Football Operations (no GM listed)

Ron Wolf 1992-2000 General Manager

 

Even when the Packers were God awful, they didn't stand pat. Now they didn't bring in anybody better. The Packers languished under the control of Dominic Olejniczak as President until 1981, and then Robert Parins from 1982 to 1988. It wasn't until Bob Harlan became President, Chairman and CEO in 1989 when the Packers started to turn it around.

 

But notice, there were no Doug Melvins in Green Bay. When a GM didn't produce, he was gone. The Packers were the Siberia of the NFL after the Lombardi era, but losing was not acceptable. The Brewers are another animal altogether.

 

I liken Milwaukee baseball to being stuck on a deserted island for years. You haven't had fresh water for years. You've had to build some contraption to either purify sea water, or collect condensation to drink. When you're rescued, and on that ship, and have a glass of water that you didn't have to labor to produce, it tastes so good, that, well, it's the best water you've ever had!

 

The Brewers went so long without any kind of playoff appearance--twenty six years--that just making the playoffs in 2008 was such a huge switch, that Brewer fans recall that season with an uncanny amount of affection. Hell, the 2005 season was the first in thirteen years where we even finished at or above .500, and Brewer fans were dancing in the streets.

 

We've lowered our expectations so much that we're willing to basically accept these few scraps Doug Melvin has given us, and we're content. When you haven't had any success at all for a quarter century, seeing the Milwaukee Brewers name in the sports section in October is just incredible! But that's just sad.

 

I am just amazed by the laissez-faire attitude I am seeing from some Brewer fans. "Hey, we had a little fun for two seasons, things will just work themselves out. Doug Melvin hasn't really been that bad. I mean, look at all the other General Managers Milwaukee has had. Why, Melvin has the second best winning percentage in Brewers history. We should keep him because replacing him will be difficult."

 

Melvin was GM in Texas from 1994 until 2001. The Rangers, like the Brewers, had no post season success. Under Melvin, Texas had made the post season for the first three times in franchise history. As recently as 1999, the Rangers had won 95 games, and won the AL West. They lost to the Yankees 3-0 in the American League Divisional Series. Yet at the end of a 73-89 2001 season, he was canned. Why? Because the Rangers identified that they would never win it all with Melvin at the helm. This team who had tasted the first post season experience in franchise history (they were the Washington Senators from 1961-1971, and the Rangers from 1972 forward), who had just won their division two years before, wanted more. And they canned the guy in charge. Melvin was a consultant for the Red Sox in 2002 before the Brewers grabbed him. And, he's basically continued on with the same status quo in Milwaukee that he started in Texas. "Hey, this franchise has never won anything at all. I'll dump prospects, get us in the playoffs once every six years, and I'll have job security."

 

Why not? There's no demand for excellence in Milwaukee, certainly not from the owner, and apparently, not the fans, either. We say we want to win in Milwaukee, but we don't back it up. And while other small market teams enjoy success with far more frequent playoff, we just keep chugging along, accepting mediocrity.

 

Those Rangers teams that made the playoffs three times under Melvin? They won one game in ten. Three times they went against the Yankees, who were, admittedly, a great team. But they were walked over because the Yankees could hit and pitch. After four years wasted with Jon Hart, Texas brought in Jon Daniels, the youngest man ever hired to General Manage a Major League Baseball team. Daniels arrived in 2005, and for the first four years, while building the team through the draft, and some carefully constructed trades, the Rangers were a below .500 team. But then starting in 2009, the Rangers won, including back to back trips to the World Series. They were one caught fly ball from winning it all. After a terrible 2014 season, where their team was absolutely decimated by injuries, they are back to .500, playing great ball as of late. And the Rangers have done it, largely, by having one of the best minor league systems in the Major Leagues. They can trade away for players and it doesn't greatly diminish their organizational depth because they have so many good players in the pipeline. They are one of the top two or three teams in all of baseball when it comes to scouting Latin America and beyond.

 

And while the Rangers have been making moves at the General Manager position, even going through bankruptcy in 2009 (only to appear in the next two World Series), the Brewers keep chugging along with the same General Manager, just so happy with any little taste of success that we get.

 

We've become Oliver Twist...

 

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2011/8/24/1314207708786/oliver-twist-007.jpg

 

"Please, sir, I want some more playoffs."

[The stache]

Here you go 'stash:

 

During Melvin's tenure, Brewers have won 48.82% of their games. For the next smallest cities during that time:

 

KC: 44.30%, Clev: 49.07%, Cinc: 49.00%, Pitt: 44.90%

 

So Melvin is squarely in the middle and Milwaukee has greater challenges than some of these towns in terms of broadcast revenues. Now I'm not a huge Melvin backer but he has gotten decent results during his tenure given the circumstances. He will have to be replaced by somebody. That somebody will have a lot of hurdles to fielding a winning team. I wish baseball were fairer but it's not.

 

And yet, Kansas City has is 28-19, leading the A.L. Central a year after losing the World Series to the Giants in seven games. They also have five of the top 100 prospects in baseball, including Raul Adalberto Mondesi. Hey, maybe we can get Alcides Escobar back in 2017! Yay!

 

Cleveland? 23-26. The last two years they have gone 177-147. And, they have some of the best young talent in the game. Jason Kipnis is a blossoming star at second base, as is Michael Brantley. And there are few rotations I'd rather have than Cleveland's. Cy Young winner Corey Kluber was 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA last year, and 269 Ks. Trevor Bauer, who was one of the top 50 prospects in baseball two years ago, is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 65 Ks in 63 IP at age 24. Danny Salazar, 25, is 5-1 with a 3.65 ERA and averaging 12 Ks per 9 IP. Carlos Carrasco, 28, is 6-4 with a 4.24 ERA, and averages 10.4 K per 9 IP. And Kluber is averaging 11.3 Ks per 9 IP this year. Kluber is 29. That foursome, baring injury or a trade, is going to be outstanding for the next four years. They also have the #3 prospect in baseball in shortstop Francisco Lindor, who will be up soon, and a real power bat in Clint Frazier, who will be hitting bombs in Cleveland a year from now.

 

Cincy? Really? Let's look at them. Three playoff appearances in the last five years. 91 wins in 2010, 97 in 2012, and 90 in 2013. Last year was a down year, and thus far, they are five games below. But their offensive talent is deep, and their stud catcher, Devin Mesoraco, hasn't played at all this year to speak of. He hit 25 home runs in 393 at bats, with an .893 OPS last year. Joey Votto is showing signs of being the superstar he was. Todd Philips is a stud third baseman. Johnny Cueto was the Cy Young runner up last year. And when Toni Cingrani and Robert Stephenson are both up full time, they could have one of the best 1-2-3s at the top of any rotation in the National League.

 

Pittsburgh? Besides currently having seven of the top 100 prospects in baseball, they have a wealth of young talent already at the Major League level. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco were both top 25 prospects, and they are already showing their abilities. With 2013 NL MVP in center, Andrew McCutchen, they may have the best starting three soon. They have other bats on the way. And their pitching? Gerrit Cole is already a Cy Young contender now. 7-2, 2.11 ERA and 72 Ks in 64 IP. And wait until Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon get called up. Like Cleveland, they will have one of the best young rotations in the Majors. Pittsburgh is 26-23 now, they went 88-74 last year, and 94-68 in 2013. Clearly they are a team on the rise.

 

Every single small market franchise you listed...every single one...is in a MUCH better position than Milwaukee for the future.

 

Milwaukee has one top 100 prospect. And they have the worst record in baseball. How you can even compare Milwaukee to these other teams is a real head scratcher. What happened ten years ago is completely irrelevant. Ten years ago, the Brewers were drafting Ryan Brauns, Prince Fielders, etc. I don't see anybody in our minor league system with that kind of impact potential. And pitching? Every single team you listed is light years ahead of the Brewers. Peralta and Nelson might both have good careers. Every other team you listed has at least one Cy Young contender, if not two. I don't see a single pitcher like that in Milwaukee, and I don't trust the development our coaching staff will provide to turn them into that level of a starter.

 

Today, and the future is what matters. And all those teams you listed have much brighter futures than we do. Now, will they win? Time will tell. But if you asked me to GM the Brewers, the Reds, the Pirates, the Royals, or the Indians, given the current Major League talent level, and the minor league talent, guess which team I would choose last?

[Austin Tatious]

Honestly, the biases against small market teams are simply not as strong as they used to be. You can build effectively in a small market and be competitive. There are competitive balance picks, compensatory picks, and other trade offs. Look around at smaller market teams being competitive. Basically, build a young core and profit. If you run your organization properly, it's not hopeless like we once felt it was.

 

Personally, I think the Brewers need a complete organizational overhaul. From a teaching standpoint, we have a low baseball IQ across the board. It's a virus that has infected the entire organization. All aspects are affected. Batters do not work counts properly. Make the opposing pitcher work. Consistently, we don't do that. Pitchers and catchers do not manage games properly. The number of gopher balls are a testament to that. It's not just "execution." Base running gaffes can be embarrassing at times. I'd take a look at every single minor league coach, manager, roving instructor, guru, etc and get the entire organization working in concert. It's obviously not happening properly right now. The only thing that is consistent is that the entire organization is dysfunctional. There has to be a teaching problem, from the bottom up. The players aren't just showing up in Milwaukee with a wrong mentality. It hasn't been properly drilled into them from the beginning.

 

I'd get a baseball czar from a first class organization like the Giants or Cardinals who takes a look at every instructor we have from the bottom up and gets this organization fixed from a baseball IQ standpoint. I'd also get more math and analytics in here. We can't get Andrew Friedman or Theo, but maybe Mark A can find someone of that ilk who is up and coming.

 

Certainly, our player acquisition needs improvement. That's part of it. But, our baseball operations needs an entire restructure on the player development side too, and I'd like our new GM and baseball President to spearhead this with a fervor.

[yfinn6]

I guess I don't get the frustration with DM now. If someone was already frustrated with him due to the philosophy they've had by trading away the future to maximize the present, that's rational. However, f someone agrees with that philosophy, this season is simply the payback for what was traded away. No reason to be anymore frustrated now than before IMO.

 

I'm not necessarily opposed to what they did. I really enjoyed 08 & 11. I just hope they draft better and they seem to be on a better track there. I also hope they realize they aren't going to win in any near term timeframe so they need to be aggressive sellers of any sale able part.

 

Also...to the poster who compared how he runs money compared to baseball, I don't think the analogy works. If you run money and wind up in the 50th percentile every year, you'll actually do quite well since you won't have blown your clients up. Many may do better in a given year but you'll be well ahead over a long time. I'd rather have you running my money than running my baseball team ;-) In baseball, 50 pct every year means no flags on the wall.

 

The frustration is 13 years into Melvin's tenure, we're about as bad now as we were when he came in, with nothing to show for it. And considering how easy it is to make it into the playoffs in the Major Leagues now, to not at least have more appearances is an embarrassment.

 

"I enjoyed '08 and '11"

 

So because we made the briefest playoff appearance in history one year, and had one decent playoff run in another, you're willing to gloss over the other 11 years where we did nothing? You referenced the money analogy being a bad one (as a stockbroker, I agree). But show me anywhere in the world, any industry, any sport, where success in two years out of thirteen is at all acceptable. And I have a hard time calling 2008 a success. We caught lightning in a bottle (Sabathia's unbelievable second half), and that lightning dried up once we made our five minute appearance in October.

 

Herein, folks, is the difference between the Brewers and the Packers. I love both teams, so please don't even bother questioning my loyalty. But the Packers are winners, and the Brewers are losers.

 

 

 

 

You cannot compare NFL and MLB franchises when it comes to player development, or really other type of success. It is an apples to oranges comparison. I apologize that I didn't read the rest of your post except for the end when you - again - tell us how we should or shouldn't look at this situation.

[MNBrew]

A few thoughts/responses:

 

- Above all, inadequate development has cost the Brewers more than any other flaw.

 

- The A's haven't been to the World Series under Billy Beane. Sure, he makes headlines and won the winter press clippings battles this year, but his team's worse than last year. Outside OAK he's darn near achieved sabermetric sainthood, but he's not always the best GM in the world, either.

 

- Re: the small-market GM comparison: Of those teams, only KC has made the World Series in this millenium, but their playoff drought was also longer than the Brewers', and they also only made it as the Wild Card like the Crew in '08. Those other teams are going off promise big-time now, though PITT's delivering on it better than the others. In the end, some of these teams will realize their potential but more will fall flat far sooner than they should've. . . . The comparison's really ultimately not too valid at the moment, though, because it's all matter of "snapshots" and MIL's trending downward and the other teams cited are trending upward. A few years ago that looks totally different. Ten years ago it was the Brewers who were everyone's "player development darlings" due to Weeks, Fielder, Hardy, Braun, Hart, Gallardo, etc. and the other teams cited here generally weren't anywhere close to being constant & viable threats to achieve lengthy success.

 

- Hasn't in been re-hashed countless times that the Farm Director makes the calls re: drafting? It's Reid Nichols who should be fired first, not Doug Melvin. I don't understand why he's relatively teflon-coated re: the vitriol here while yet again Melvin's getting shelled for the poor drafts during his tenure. Jack Z gets credit for the success of his drafts (way too much, IMO, since his track record in MIL w/ pitching is mostly crapola) but Melvin should get fired for "overseeing" the lousy drafts? You can't have it both ways.

 

- Furthermore on Jack Z & the analogy to the current Twins.... The current Twins' success came a bit out of the blue, but they're so strong from the farm standpoint because they've been at/near the very top of the draft for 4 years now -- much like the Brewers were when Jack Z hit on all those top picks. . . . Terry Ryan's background is in scouting and yet is also a dang good GM, which is finally bearing out again this year after Bill Smith ran the organization into the ground before getting canned. . . .

 

- Furthermore (again), teams are on the shakiest ground when they earn lots of top picks but don't develop them. What I wish they'd done when they hired Ray Montgomery is either or also done a raid on some of the shining stars from the Cardinals' player development ranks. If the Cardinals can win with chronically low-round picks, any team can IF they do it right. . . . To use a hockey analogy, any GM can look good when his team drafts Toews & Kane in consecutive first rounds after being one of the worst teams in the league. The greater key is to develop all-stars and consistent high-end players year after year when you're near the top of the league. So if there's a model team to follow, it really should be St. Louis (which as a 1980-onward fan still really pains me to say).

 

- The premise at the start of this thread that Melvin should be faulted for Fielder's leaving is ridiculous. The Brewers offered $20+MM/yr. contracts to Fielder, Sabathia, & Greinke. Yet they got even better offers and left. At least Greinke was serious about considering MIL's offers. Everyone's going on and on about responsible contracts and payroll limitations, yet the Brewers were supposed to top Detroit's offer to Prince?

 

- It took Cruz a few years to find success in Texas, even going through waivers when ANY TEAM could've claimed him, yet NONE did. Per some of the logic present, that's huge evidence that all 29 non-Rangers GMs should've been be fired.

 

- Neither Cain nor Brantley could hold a steady spot in their team's lineup in spite of repeated golden chances for at least the first couple years after they were traded. I'm not discrediting their current abilities and they'd both look quite good in MIL these days. However, that it took so long for them to develop into reliable & good MLB players shows that there were no guarantees with them, not ever.

 

- CLE chose Brantley over Taylor Green as the PTBNL. Had Brantley fought the injuries and been re-sentenced to AAA due to his team signing a "proven vet" because they didn't trust him to develop sufficiently while playing in the bigs and so forth... in other words, lived out Taylor Green's fate instead of Green, Melvin would look even smarter. Green's star rose sooner & faster, including an incredible 2011 season AND displacing a proven vet to make the 25-man playoff roster. Then a series of bad luck, bad turns, plus a major year-killing injury ended any chances he had. I'd still love for him to turn his career back around and live up to his original top billing (he loyally returns to the Brewers' organization every year and is playing 3B for AA these days), but the odds obviously don't favor that happy ending at age 28 with very uninspiring numbers at Biloxi.

[tmwiese55]

Regarding the discussion of the other teams that are currently better than us with better systems. Who's to say they're going to be able to maintain it for more than 7 seasons like MKE did? What I'm getting at is all those teams could have been having the same argument in say 08 and their fans could have been using us the example of 'good'. We had a bunch of young guys all coming up and ready to play well.

 

The hurdle is making it long term like STL does. Heck, KC did the trade for Shields just like we did for Greinke, giving up more than we did for not as good of a pitcher(I assume they get SD #1 pick this year though). I feel like the way TB has traded their pitchers over the years should have them set up to keep it going longer term but we'll see, those younger players have to perform now, and they we terrible last year.

[3and2Fastball]

Regarding the discussion of the other teams that are currently better than us with better systems. Who's to say they're going to be able to maintain it for more than 7 seasons like MKE did? What I'm getting at is all those teams could have been having the same argument in say 08 and their fans could have been using us the example of 'good'. We had a bunch of young guys all coming up and ready to play well.

 

Maintain what for 7 years? 2 playoff appearances?

[tmwiese55]

Being generally in playoff contention from 07-14. That's all I meant.

 

Of course it's frustrating they only made it twice. I was actually just talking yesterday about 2012 being a frustration and something to remember regarding RR. The 2011 team essentially only lost Fielder and replaced him with Ramirez (who played great and led the league in doubles). I think that was the year they got Aoki and Hart ended up moving to 1B. Still had Greinke and Gallardo, yet they started bad and really didn't have a shot at the playoffs in spite of a late surge.

[Boomer5]

Here you go 'stash:

 

During Melvin's tenure, Brewers have won 48.82% of their games. For the next smallest cities during that time:

 

KC: 44.30%, Clev: 49.07%, Cinc: 49.00%, Pitt: 44.90%

 

So Melvin is squarely in the middle and Milwaukee has greater challenges than some of these towns in terms of broadcast revenues. Now I'm not a huge Melvin backer but he has gotten decent results during his tenure given the circumstances. He will have to be replaced by somebody. That somebody will have a lot of hurdles to fielding a winning team. I wish baseball were fairer but it's not.

 

And yet, Kansas City has is 28-19, leading the A.L. Central a year after losing the World Series to the Giants in seven games. They also have five of the top 100 prospects in baseball, including Raul Adalberto Mondesi. Hey, maybe we can get Alcides Escobar back in 2017! Yay!

 

Cleveland? 23-26. The last two years they have gone 177-147. And, they have some of the best young talent in the game. Jason Kipnis is a blossoming star at second base, as is Michael Brantley. And there are few rotations I'd rather have than Cleveland's. Cy Young winner Corey Kluber was 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA last year, and 269 Ks. Trevor Bauer, who was one of the top 50 prospects in baseball two years ago, is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 65 Ks in 63 IP at age 24. Danny Salazar, 25, is 5-1 with a 3.65 ERA and averaging 12 Ks per 9 IP. Carlos Carrasco, 28, is 6-4 with a 4.24 ERA, and averages 10.4 K per 9 IP. And Kluber is averaging 11.3 Ks per 9 IP this year. Kluber is 29. That foursome, baring injury or a trade, is going to be outstanding for the next four years. They also have the #3 prospect in baseball in shortstop Francisco Lindor, who will be up soon, and a real power bat in Clint Frazier, who will be hitting bombs in Cleveland a year from now.

 

Cincy? Really? Let's look at them. Three playoff appearances in the last five years. 91 wins in 2010, 97 in 2012, and 90 in 2013. Last year was a down year, and thus far, they are five games below. But their offensive talent is deep, and their stud catcher, Devin Mesoraco, hasn't played at all this year to speak of. He hit 25 home runs in 393 at bats, with an .893 OPS last year. Joey Votto is showing signs of being the superstar he was. Todd Philips is a stud third baseman. Johnny Cueto was the Cy Young runner up last year. And when Toni Cingrani and Robert Stephenson are both up full time, they could have one of the best 1-2-3s at the top of any rotation in the National League.

 

Pittsburgh? Besides currently having seven of the top 100 prospects in baseball, they have a wealth of young talent already at the Major League level. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco were both top 25 prospects, and they are already showing their abilities. With 2013 NL MVP in center, Andrew McCutchen, they may have the best starting three soon. They have other bats on the way. And their pitching? Gerrit Cole is already a Cy Young contender now. 7-2, 2.11 ERA and 72 Ks in 64 IP. And wait until Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon get called up. Like Cleveland, they will have one of the best young rotations in the Majors. Pittsburgh is 26-23 now, they went 88-74 last year, and 94-68 in 2013. Clearly they are a team on the rise.

 

Every single small market franchise you listed...every single one...is in a MUCH better position than Milwaukee for the future.

 

Milwaukee has one top 100 prospect. And they have the worst record in baseball. How you can even compare Milwaukee to these other teams is a real head scratcher. What happened ten years ago is completely irrelevant. Ten years ago, the Brewers were drafting Ryan Brauns, Prince Fielders, etc. I don't see anybody in our minor league system with that kind of impact potential. And pitching? Every single team you listed is light years ahead of the Brewers. Peralta and Nelson might both have good careers. Every other team you listed has at least one Cy Young contender, if not two. I don't see a single pitcher like that in Milwaukee, and I don't trust the development our coaching staff will provide to turn them into that level of a starter.

 

Today, and the future is what matters. And all those teams you listed have much brighter futures than we do. Now, will they win? Time will tell. But if you asked me to GM the Brewers, the Reds, the Pirates, the Royals, or the Indians, given the current Major League talent level, and the minor league talent, guess which team I would choose last?

 

What a great post. It all comes down to talent evaluation and development. I think that is probably the cheapest way to become competitive. How much extra would it cost to add 10 more high end scouts? Upgrade the coaching staff? Upgrade the facilities? I bet its not much more than one year of Garza or Broxton.

 

You know what is the actually the worst thing about our only top 100 prospect? He was signed for $95K, which means quite honestly it was an accident that he has become so great. Compared to the cost and assets used in 2009 and 2011 drafts which this board could have absolutely drafted better just by a vote?

[bill hAll Star]

2012 was such an odd year. It was blown almost entirely by the bullpen early in the season. Wolf was pretty bad, too.

 

Looking at the stats, Roenicke dubbed Loe his "7th inning guy" and let a heavy R/L splits guy face 40% LH batters. Axford was tipping pitches (supposedly), K-Rod struggled out of the gates. Greinke was having off-and-on elbow issues.

 

They almost stormed back to the playoffs over the last month or two. It would have been interesting to see what that team would have done. Their pitching for the playoffs would not have been very good at all but that lineup was incredible by the end of the year.

[tmwiese55]

Yes I remember going to several late season games and how hard they were playing at the end as Segura was a sparkplug and Gomez had first come to be the Gomez we know now. It was one of the reasons I liked RR, that team could have went through the motions but he had them playing hard all year. I don't know what happened at the end of last year and beginning of this that the team just seemed to have no life, body language was brutal. Would be interesting to hear the behind the scenes story.

[brewcrewdue80]

Pittsburgh got ahead of the game with their Latin development and scouting. Same can be said with Kansas City doing a good job. Those two franchises will maintain success longer than Milwaukee has.

 

The #1 reason Melvin should be canned simply is, not one ace developed in pitching. He acquired Grienke at the cost of Escobar/Cain/Odorizzi/Montgomery. Odorizzi is breaking out this season. In return he got Segura, Hellweg, Pena. Absolute loss now in that trade. Probably 13WAR between Escobar/Cain/Odorizzi today to 2.5WAR in Segura. No World Series to show for it...KC has one now, having turned Odorizzi/Myers to Shields/Davis. So what must that have been? 0WAR on Odorizzi at the time to 6.5WAR added to KC? Off of a Brewers prospect and one of their own. KC had 2 Aces on their team to Milw's 1. Forget their developing ability. Melvin has failed to develop an Ace or even really a great #2. How many of the Cardinals done? Miller/Wacha/Martinez/Rosenthal. I mean just churning up top flight talents in pitching and now have the best record in the NL for doing so.

 

Montgomery, based on his previous draft classes seems to be a positive, but his hire? Would he be a part of this organization if Seid hadn't passed away? I don't think Seid was in line for being fired so I doubt Montgomery was being lined up as a replacement by Melvin. So Melvin appears to have improved(maybe) the franchise simply on circumstances and not on his own mental capacity.

 

The thing is, the team has had the 2 playoff appearances in 13 years. So that is 11 seasons of non playoff appearances. Where are the stud Prospects to show for all that losing mediocrity? 1 playoff appearance since 2008. That's 5 of 6 years you could look to add talent trading away your players on losing teams. But Melvin failed on doing so with Hart/Weeks/ARam/Lohse when the time was apparent and there. I'm sure among others, just not on the top of my tongue to write.

 

The Brett Lawrie debacle. Having multiple GMs not even have a clue he was available and Melvin settled on Marcum. What if the team got a better SP in trade. Matt Garza was traded by the Rays to the Cubs a few months later. How about a Grienke/Garza in prime duo with Garza having 3 years of team control? I don't know if the Tampa GM knew at the time if Lawrie was available but the trade for Marcum happened so early in the offseason.

 

The writing/history is on the wall, Melvin isn't leading this franchise to a WS future. And that writing was apparent with Roenicke who he gave a contract to for 2016 when he should have not been brought back for 2015. He paid the manager 2 years for less than 40games of managing. Decisions like that for a small market. Dumping money that shouldn't have been spent.

[Thurston Fluff]

When it comes to player development I am starting to wonder of there isn't some issues with our minor league philosophy going on. There is a reason the last two AAA affiliates didn't want to renew with us. We are now sitting in a place nobody wants to be in AAA. It was like musical chairs and we were left with out when the music stopped. I don't know if they skimp on things or if it's about how well the major league franchise helps draw customers to the AAA games but something unfavorable seems to be going on.

[3and2Fastball]

The Brewers as currently put together do not aquire, draft or develop the pitching needed to contend for a World Series title. That is why the entire front office, scouting staff and farm system needs to be significantly upgraded.

[Boomer5]

When it comes to player development I am starting to wonder of there isn't some issues with our minor league philosophy going on. There is a reason the last two AAA affiliates didn't want to renew with us. We are now sitting in a place nobody wants to be in AAA. It was like musical chairs and we were left with out when the music stopped. I don't know if they skimp on things or if it's about how well the major league franchise helps draw customers to the AAA games but something unfavorable seems to be going on.

 

Nashville is definitely the canary in the coal mine. They didn't see any reason to continue with us. That says a lot about what teams think of how we fill and incubate out talent pipeline. Something MAJOR has to change.