We're Number Five! We're Number Five! - The 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[brewmann04]

A top five guy needs to be an impact player no matter what position.

[TheCrew07]

I remember Verlander couldn't control his 100mph arm at all and the Tigers still took the gamble..... Paid off well. Your buying lottery tickets. No such thing as a sure thing, any of the top 4 could easily bust or be injury plagued. Pint is most raw and has pitched by far the least. He is s 2-3 sport stud, who I think is an outstanding ball player. Parents never really let him put the wear & tear on his arm that most do. Very limited showcases & code games I believe. Has the arm you die for, it's very fresh, never had spent much time just focusing and being coached as to how to pitch. Groom, Hansen, Puk all taken already..... Pint or Lowe are way to go, maybe Perez

 

I understand your main point here, in that it's all about trying to project where a player will end up, it's not necessarily about where they are today.

 

However the Brewers have never developed a pitcher with filthy stuff and control problems into an ace so I cringe when people go to the Randy Johnson, or Justin Verlander, or any other Hall of Fame pitcher for justification of an argument. As I've mentioned many times I abhor the extremist examples used in support of any argument, I'd rather evaluate situations based on the whole picture and argue around most likely scenarios.

 

For me I'd rather the Brewers draft pitchers with plus stuff, control, decent command, and 2nd tier velocity rather than trying to hit HRs with flamethrowers who have the arm and stuff, but little control or command. That's why my list of pitchers is extremely short every year and that's why I've gravitated towards HS pitchers like Groome and Aiken way before the draft since most college pitchers fitting that profile would be long gone before the Brewers had a chance to select them. As it turned out the Brewers didn't/won't have a chance to select either if healthy, and yes I realize they passed on Aiken last year after TJ for Clark (which is fine, well I hope it turns out fine).

 

We don't need aces, we just need impact pitchers, and no I don't believe Medeiros is in that class. Yes he generates a ton of strikeouts and ground balls, but he does it pitching up in the zone which is completely atypical. People are drawing conclusions based on his statistics that are difficult to support with observation.

 

To me the arm is secondary to the rest of the package, I'll happily take a #2 type pitcher who tops out around 95 and is going to give you 180 IP+ per season rather than all or nothing flamethrower which the Brewers haven't had much historical success with. However that doesn't mean I'm looking to draft Jungmann type #3s either, I'm not looking for "safe", I'm looking for legitimately talented pitchers with some polish, and yet some upside left as well.

 

For HS pitchers mechanically I like Jason Groome and Reggie Lawson the best. Most every pitcher in this year's HS class has issues that I'd like them to address. Groome is far and away the cleanest to home plate mechanically, though I could do without his exaggerated knee raise out of the windup, I'd simplify it to make it quicker to the plate and more like his stretch for consistency sake (as an example of things I would nitpick on a pitcher). Generally I'm not a fan of guys with mixed tempos, like a Chris Archer from TB, who are super slow then explode towards the plate. I'm looking for a smooth tempo and delivery, with a higher arm slot, good foot placement, and a direct path with the body toward home plate (no rounding). Since I highly doubt Groome lasts to 5, he's out of the mix.

 

College wise AJ Puk has a decent lower half and comes from a true 3/4 arm slot, rounding out his delivery at the end. Alec Hansen is basically a RH Groome, but as noted he's had a poor start to the season, and his control has been relatively inconsistent over the course of his career. He's a guy I'd like to see in person because just based on limited video and stats I'd question his athleticism as his control has never really settled in. I've never liked Funkhouser, I talked him about him in depth last year. Connor Jones is another UVA pitcher (we drafted Kirby last year), true 3/4 slot, delivery is pretty smooth and clean, though he has an interesting mini squat thing to start out of the wind up.

 

Many of the rest of the young men drag their arm behind their lower half or have a glaring flaw that suggests surgery in their future to me (Matt Krook as an example). Pretty much any pitcher who throws with the classic "C" motion where the ball drops to 6 o'clock, then around to 9, and finally up past 12 before coming forward is going to drag their arm behind their hips which saps velo and puts more stress on the shoulder and elbow. You can make it work if you sync everything up correctly but that's harder to do from a timing standpoint unless you exaggerate your kick because the arm has so much further to travel to hit a load position. Many pitchers who exaggerate their kick also tend do that glide thing with their foot where they extend out and then bring the foot back around towards home plate which adds that rotational element I talk about quite a bit. I'm into simple, clean, direct deliveries to home plate in the first round. After the 1st my standards will relax significantly but I'm not into missing on 1st rounders.

 

I'll stick to a top #4 from a pitching stand point and right now I'd go Groome (HS), Puk(4yr), Lawson (HS), and Jones(4yr).

 

Position player wise I like to wait until the HS season is mostly wrapped up before offering an opinion because those guys tend to be fairly volatile from my perspective. The best college hitters are OFs and we're loaded in the OF, not that we should be drafting for need, always BPA, but I'm still chasing legitimate impact pitching so that's my priority in every draft, all things equal from a talent perspective I'm taking the pitcher. In OF I do like Corey Ray, and he's a lefty, which we're slowing adding a nice stable of in the system. On the IF Nick Senzel is intriguing to me, but he's another bat without a true position at this point (going to play 3B this year), but with mixed reviews on his athleticism and fielding instincts he's a guy I'd like to watch a little before jumping on his bandwagon. If there was Schwarber type who I thought would make a good 1B I'd be all over him, but I'm just not seeing that out of the college ranks at this time. Hell even a high AVE SS, can never have too many middle IFs, but there's not a guy who jumps out me from the College ranks in the middle infield either(though I do like HS SS Delvin Perez from PR who's already been mentioned).

[TheCrew07]

Just a quick note on the hip/elbow thing I mentioned above. When you're watching video watch to see if the hips are open and square to home plate before the arm starts forward (easier with slow mo), ideally the hips stay closed (perpendicular to the target) until the elbow starts coming forward out of the load position. The hip and elbow should fire together regardless of sport when "throwing" anything.

 

That way the upper and lower halves of the body are in sync so all of the weight transfers and explosive motion are happening at the same time. Getting that part right makes everything on the down side of throw simpler as there's nothing extra the muscles need to compensate for and also greatly improves arm health. It was one of the major things I did wrong and contributed to the arm issues I had up until my late 20s.

[sfl2hnq17]

TheCrew07,

 

What do you think of Ian Anderson?

[TheCrew07]

In the first round? No.

 

Here's his profile pic from PG, see the hips already open and the arm is still loaded?

 

He's got a high arm slot which I prefer to the low 3/4, he's steps a little bit across himself (left foot comes down on the right side) and like all pitchers with that they rotate around the plant foot and fall off towards the glove side (part of that is also his arm slot as well). However for his age and the extra motion in his delivery he locates very well.

 

He doesn't have a plus secondary pitch right now (flashes plus based on multiple scouting reports), but he's got a nice arm and plenty of upside. If you're willing to dream on him you think he's at least a #3 with a decent chance to add more velocity and sharpen his stuff ascending to a #2 or maybe better.

 

I'm not sure I'd take him prior to 75, it would depend who else was there at 46, as far as where he gets drafted all it takes is one team to really like you but I'd guess late 1st to early 2nd if he has a good senior year. Colby probably has some insight on his commitment to Vandy and if he's falling that would be why if he's healthy.

[sfl2hnq17]

TC07 thanks for the response.

 

What do you think of the Brewers taking a gamble on a guy like Keegan Thompson with the Comp B pick?

[The3rdManIn.com]

I've been interviewing and writing profiles on a lot of the top draft prospects in this year's class, including Riley Pint, Mickey Moniak and Corey Ray. Feel free to check them out if you're interested at http://www.the3rdmanin.com

 

Thanks!

[reillymcshane]

Baseball America has story on the early success of Tennessee 3B Nick Senzel:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/solid-showing-hot-corner-sends-senzel-draft-boards/

 

BA has moved him to #2 on their overall 2016 prospect list:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2016-top-100-draft-prospects-3/

 

The articles note that Senzel has made the move from 2B to 3B without any problem, but say that some scouts are concerned about how much power he will develop.

[billymac]

Thoughts on if Jordan Sheffield would be considered at 1.5? Guy knows how to pitch and has been lights out this year.

[The3rdManIn.com]

Who do you want the Brewers to select with the No. 5 pick in June's MLB Draft? Here are the top 10 draft prospect: http://www.the3rdmanin.com/2016-mlb-draft-top-10-prospects-3/

[JohnBriggs12]

Kyle Lewis looks the part and he's gone from off the radar to All American so his ceiling is tremendous.

[colbyjack]

The way Jordan Sheffield is pitching this spring he won't be around at 1.5. He may be positioning himself to be a realistic option for #5 overall.

[sfl2hnq17]

After reading Chris Crawford's draftbook, I still like Quantrill (if a clean bill of health) and Lowe at number 5.

[ZBTMP]

Riley Pint was impressive in his debut, I guess it was a week ago, but this is the first I had seen. Its early, but with Puk's mediocre start to the season, could be high school pitchers going 1-2.

 

Overall, it was as impressive a pitching performance as I ever recall seeing for a high school pitcher, especially considering the time of year and location. It brought to mind Josh Beckett in high school, when Beckett would regularly throw 94-96 with an unhittable curveball. Except Beckett would always throw two or three changeups between innings to show scouts that the pitch was there. Pint went out and showed that changeup in the game with outstanding effect.

http://www.perfectgame.org/blogs/Entry.aspx?entry=42082

[brewcrewdue80]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/first-mock-draft-march-30/#SVTXLldxLWVTuCDk.97

 

BA had their first mock posted. And your new Brewer is....Delvin Perez

"Milwaukee has not shied away from the high school demographic in recent years, taking prep players with its first pick in each of the last four drafts. Brewers scouting director Ray Montgomery previously served in the same position for Arizona, and notably used the Diamondbacks’ first six picks of 2014 on high school players. Perez’s massive upside could be too much to pass up on here."

 

Really I'm just reading, BA has no clue what Milw will do, there aren't good rumors to tie them to anyone and based off of past 2 years here's the guy to fit Milw's pick. Massive upside apparently. A video I watched he went from back of the plate front foot to ahead of the plate front and back again. Had a solid stance a little less wide than maybe would want but looked stable. Then watching another video he's got the batter's box stance as wide as can be. So I dunno. He doesn't have a basic approach. May be tinkering with his approach a long time. Awkward to figure out. I'd be a little pause that he's always going to try tinkering and go through spells of bad. He's fluid looking defensively, strong arm so how the bat comes along will be his ceiling.

 

Add: I'll add that I don't recall seeing one ball hit center field and opposite field. All pulling.

[brewmann04]

I am looking for this draft still hope to find that top line pitcher.

[Jenkins5]

At 5, if Pint or Groome are not there, as of today, you pass on pitching.

 

Puk continues to be Puk with zero consistency and is all over the place.

Hansen has been in a free fall all season.

Connor Jones is a talented pitcher but is a middle of rotation talent.

Sheffield has upside but not sold him as a #5 impact pitcher.

Dakota Hudson scares me since he literally has done nothing until Cap Code & now this spring.

Matt Krook is rebounding from injury and has shined enough

Cal Quantrill is still out and a risk

 

No other high school pitchers have really broke into top 10-15 range to discuss

 

Overall I think pitching is deep and there should be a nice arm there for us at #46

 

To me if Pint or Groome are gone, Lowe & Perez should be top targets.

 

Lowe will be a star. I'm completely sold on him. http://www.the3rdmanin.com/intriguing-two-way-player-josh-lowe/ (nice article) Moreover, his brother (a junior 1B at Mississippi State 6'4 245) Nathaniel should be considered as well between rounds 4-8. Drafted in 10th last year as one of the elite JC bats in the country. Great approach, so far 17bb to 12k.

 

Perez keeps growing! One report said that there are rumors he is nearing 6'5 now! I hope not but he has the upside you are looking for. Overall elite defense, and a bat that people are starting to project to become pretty special. Will be 17 until fall as well making him one of youngest players in draft. With his helium I says he is gone by #5.

 

Nick Senzel can flat out hit but his line drive approach with most likely never lead to much power numbers. Could be a Jeff Cirrillo type who will hit .330 but only 10-15 HRs in a season. I won't be excited with the pick but will be fine with it for sure.

 

Cory Ray I have never been sold on. Even in college he can't get time in CF and will be a LF in MLB. Not much of an arm, Power will be nothing more than average there.

 

Nolan Jones I haven't read enough on but I know he is gaining traction.

 

Buddy Reed is Dexter Fowler, don't need that at 5

 

Mickey Moniak speed, will walk, oh and he will out hit anyone in this draft class. If not for us having 200 OFs loaded in our lower levels, I'd be all over Mickey.

 

Blake Rutherford I think moves to left or right. Arm is not outstanding. His bat will carry him though and could be a .300 hitter with 25 bombs a year. Once again, I'd be more sold if our whole system wasnt OF's already.

[ZBTMP]

 

No other high school pitchers have really broke into top 10-15 range to discuss

 

 

Isn't Ian Anderson close to that range right now?

 

Thoughts on Kyle Lewis? I have some unjustified fear of small school players with the contact problems Roache and to a lesser degree Weeks have had, but he seems to be hitting a ton right now.

[Austin Tatious]

I agree that Josh Lowe is very intriguing. It would be awesome if we could get a Scott Rolen type of athlete over there. It sounds like Lowe is an athletic guy.

 

I wish we could somehow get Groome but it does not seem likely. Watch him turn into a Kershaw.

 

I would probably take Pint if he were there. If he turned into a Verlander type, that would be phenomenal. We have a lot of young talent, but I really want to see us get an elite pitching prospect, a front line ace. I think Groome in particular, but also Pint, could have that possibility, although any pitching prospect turning into a true ace has an obvious element of a crapshoot. You always have that fear of another Mark Rogers at the 5th pick. I am not sure Pint is a pitcher yet as much as a thrower. But Verlander was that once and you're betting on talent.

 

Puk and Hansen seemed like good prospects, but how do we really know they wouldn't just be in between a Taylor Jungmann, the Ga Tech lefty whose name is not on the tip of my tongue now, or gasp, Eric Arnett.

 

So, if you don't feel really confident about a front ace at 1.5, then I would seriously look at Lowe. He looks like a natural third baseman. Maybe you strike gold. We could use another Braun/Fielder type of stud. 3rd base is also a position where there aren't enough top guys to go around, so you could really have a distinguishing factor there. I'd love a Rolen or Corey Seager at 3rd.

 

Senzel interests me. He has a Matt Carpenter feel about him. If he can legitimately play 3b, he is interesting. But Lowe seems to have more upside.

[Jenkins5]

Ian Anderson is climbing up but still mostly considered outside of the top 15. Think mostly because he sits in low 90's (even though projectable) he doesn't have that standout power arm most scouts are craving from a HS pitcher in the top 10. Still plenty of time for him to creep in there.

 

Forgot to mention Lewis but I love the potential there! But like all other OFs, I'd like use to draft something outside of OF. At 5 BPA should be close enough to have position factor in. I would just like to see us go with high upside at a different position. We have so many exciting ones that it would be nice to get more arms or infielders. Lowe is a stud who could be a plus defender at 3B. He could play 1b if blocked by Gatewood or Lara and is good enough athlete to go out to RF. His arm is about as good as it comes at the hot corner...be a waste to move him off to 1B though.

 

Groome/ Pint / Lowe / Perez are my top 4

[paul253]

Yeah I'm disappointed that a top of the rotation pitcher is not likely to be available at 5 (this, along with things like Lucroys conclusion is why I root for veterans to sit towards the end of a lost season). I'll just have a hard time getting excited for yet another outfielder or shortstop. But, I do agree you take BPA unless two players are so close. Either way we should get a very talented player at 5.

[Jenkins5]

Perez I have no concerns with drafting even though he is a SS.

 

One) he is so gifted defensively, his bat is making huge gains, really good speed, and his age is appealing.

 

Two) Young talent SS have such value, either Arcia or him (whoever is not future at the time) can be moved a center piece in a major trade to upgrade elsewhere.

 

Three) You can build his versitility to include 2b, 3b, & OF if he keeps growing, power keeps developing, and he stays as athletic ( the anti Hanley Ramirez who just let self go)

 

OFs,definitely just Corner guys, don't have the type of value as a SS if bat & defense is above average to really good.

[Eye Black]

In the most recent Scout.com MLB Draft Podcast (Jeff Ellis and Taylor Blake Ward) first allude to Blake Rutherford working out several times with the Brewers (7:30 mark), and then they go into further explanation including the comment that the the Brewers' scouts "are not all that quiet on liking him" (10:30-to-12:15 mark).

 

The podcast dissects their most recent mock draft, Scout's 2016 MLB Mock Draft, 2.0.

[reillymcshane]

As always, thanks to everyone for posting updates on potential draft picks. I just don't follow college/prep players, so this is the best way for me to read about these players.

[Austin Tatious]

In the most recent Scout.com MLB Draft Podcast (Jeff Ellis and Taylor Blake Ward) first allude to Blake Rutherford working out several times with the Brewers (7:30 mark), and then they go into further explanation including the comment that the the Brewers' scouts "are not all that quiet on liking him" (10:30-to-12:15 mark).

 

The podcast dissects their most recent mock draft, Scout's 2016 MLB Mock Draft, 2.0.

 

Great article and podcast. Unlike the NFL and even NBA, both of which have a phenomenal amount of draft coverage, I wish there were more MLB draft coverage to be honest. Very interesting about the Brewers being all over Rutherford. The analysts also really liked Ray Montgomery's draft. One of them said Trent Clark was his favorite prospect in all of baseball.

 

I'm admittedly a recipient of information, and not an analyst. But, I was surprised they had Senzel way up at 1.1 and 1.2 overall, respectively, in their two mocks. I like him as I indicated in a post above. One of them even made the same comp I did, i.e., Matt Carpenter. However, on Groome, they thought he was behind where Aiken and Allard were as high school lefties. One had him dropping to 4 which is close to Crew territory especially if he trends down further. They had the Crew passing on Pint although they love his upside.

 

I'd be very satisfied if we got Groome or Pint which has been the prevailing view on this board since last summer. I'm not personally scouting these guys, but going off of the consensus of reports I've found. I mean, Pint is hitting 101 or 102 on the gun. Risk there for sure, but how else do you get your Verlander or Kershaw?

 

Last year I was on here arguing for Aiken despite the injury. He came off the board soon after the Crew so I wasn't off base. Now, I like Clark so there's that. But I really want strong 1 and 2 starters. Hopefully we can get some top shelf starters out of Hader, Ponce, Lopez and others. Maybe Kirby when healthy. But you need to keep cranking on it and increase your odds.

 

We shouldn't draft for need especially in baseball. But I sure hope we can get a 1b, 3b, and C. In the OF, we already have Mav, Demi, Clark, and Monte, among others, brewing. I think we are getting a couple of good players out of that group. But 3b and 1b. I gotta say I love how the Royals trot out Moustaskas and Hosmer. They are solid everywhere. That's what I want.