We're Number Five! We're Number Five! - The 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[Jenkins5]

We can't wait for a HS ace to develop? It took 2 years for Kershaw to hit the majors and 3 to become a force...how is that waiting too long?

 

This rebuild is going to take 4 years at least realistically. Not picking an elite pitcher because he won't be in the majors next year would be an epic fail on our part.

 

Agreed, how's Danny Hultzen looking right now? Can't miss college ace.... No one is a sure thing because they went to college.... No one is a sure thing cause they went to high school. You simply take the one you feel has the best makings of being a future Ace.

 

Why do we need this player to be ready in 2-3 years? Our goal is to build the best system, with the best talent, who will give us most sustainable future. I could care less if our #1 pick gets here in 2 years or 5 years, as long as they get here and produce in time is all that matters. It is that kind of thinking that landing us the great Eric Arnett. Taylor Jungmann was suppose to take almost no time to to develop...

[clancyphile]

Any thoughts on Joe Rizzo for the #5 overall pick? Third baseman, bats left-handed...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ulysses-cantu-joe-rizzo-catching/

[Jenkins5]

Any thoughts on Joe Rizzo for the #5 overall pick? Third baseman, bats left-handed...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ulysses-cantu-joe-rizzo-catching/

 

Has rise a bunch and shine like no other. You don't spend a top 5 in a loaded pitching class for a guy who looks like he will be going late 1st - Mid 2nd round. Plenty of time to do so but as of now no. Rutherford as Colby would say is the only prep bat that is really in the conversation as of right now.

 

Joe Rizzo, 3B, Oakton HS (Virginia)

 

Rizzo doesn't have the prototypical baseball body, being rather short at 5'11" and quite broad, but there's an innate ability to barrel up baseballs that I can't help but fall in love with. He's a hitter, as I've said of a few other players over the years, and what do hitters do? Hitters hit. Joe Rizzo is going to hit. The rest of his game is solid, but it's the bat that's swoon-worthy.

 

Kid can hit, no doubt about that but is him being able to hit with out many other tools enough to use a top 5 pick on.

 

From Fangraph ratings

3. Blake Rutherford (19.0), CF, Chaminade Prep HS (CA), UCLA commit: Rutherford was noticed as early as his freshman or sophomore year as an elite hitting prospects and the track records of those type of players is very good (Bryce Harper, Eric Hosmer, Alex Jackson, Nick Gordon, etc.). He’s 6’3/190, a plus runner with effortless actions in all phases, advanced feel to hit from the left side and above average raw power that he gets to in games already. He’s basically a slightly toolsier version of Banks with some track record for scouts, given his performance in events/games as an underclassman in a highly-scouted area of the country.

 

17. Brad Debo (18.8), C, Orange HS (NC), South Carolina commit: Debo wont MVP of the loaded Jupiter tournament last October and is drawing comparisons from scouts to other first round prep backstops like Chris Betts (2015) and Nick Ciuffo (2013). All three show above average raw power, advanced feel to hit from the left side and the pure tools to stick behind the plate.

 

20. Drew Mendoza (18.7), SS, Lake Minneola HS (FL), Florida State: Mendoza was a skinny shortstop with some feel to hit from the left side that was a solid follow, then he hit two homers this spring off RHP Brady Singer, who will likely go in the first 50-60 picks this summer. Mendoza has filled out his lanky 6’4 frame a bit but still looks like as shortstop for now, with the bat showing more impact.

 

More High School Position Players (16)

 

SS Nolan Williams (KS, None), 1B T.J. Collett (IN, Kentucky), LF Seth Beer (GA, Clemson), RF Jalen Harrison (VA, Virginia), SS Nick Quintana (NV, USC), SS Delvin Perez (PR, None), SS Gavin Lux (WI, None), 3B Garrett Milchin (FL, Florida), CF Keenan Bell (FL, Florida), 2B Carlos Cortes (FL, South Carolina), SS David Hamilton (TX, Texas), SS Grant Bodison (SC, South Carolina), 3B Bo Bichette (FL, Arizona State), C Herbert Iser (FL, Miami), C Thomas Dillard (TN, Ole Miss) and C Michael Amditis (FL, Miami)

 

So only 3 HS bats ranked in their top 30....which is pretty common from most lists I have seen so far. Just not a tone of high bats in the picture right now.

 

Josh Lowe and Seth Beer are usually ranked pretty high

 

3B/OF Josh Lowe

has been flying up charts and now is the #4 overall high school prospect according to Perfect Game

6'3 210 Incredible athlete. Mid 90's on the mound, with good breaking ball, 6.5 runner, 95 across the IF and 100 mph exit velos at PG National. Huge power potential PGAA

 

Seth Beer, OF, Lambert HS (Suwanee, Ga.):

It might be tough to find a better athlete than Beer in the 2016 Draft class, as he was a nationally renowned swimmer in the past, one who held the national record in the 50-meter backstroke for 11-12 year-olds. On the diamond, the Clemson commit, who played in the Under Armour All-America Game as an underclassman last summer, has a very good bat from the left side, with wiry strength and power. Beer could fit the profile in right field well. His summer will start at the Perfect Game National Showcase next week.

 

Some other Top Preps

 

Mickey Moniak, OF, Encinitas HS (California)

 

At this crazily early juncture, Mickey Moniak might be my very favourite player going in to the 2016 draft cycle. If I were to throw out Dustin Ackley as a potential comp, you would probably find that very underwhelming, and deservedly so. However, remember that Ackley, at the time he was drafted second overall, appeared to represent the height of non-slugging offensive dynamism, combined with an ability to man multiple premium positions with aplomb. Moniak appears to be more of a pure center fielder than Ackley (though the latter's dalliances at second base were at least initially the result of necessity, as he had arm troubles in his college career if I remember correctly), but the dynamic, wide base of offensive tools isn't entirely dissimilar. Amazing pure hitter.

 

Nolan Jones, INF, Holy Ghost Prep (Pennsylvania)

 

One of the more raw talents in the draft, the result of pursuing multiple sports throughout most of his high school career, Jones nonetheless has enormous tools, including big-time raw power and an arm that should guarantee him a spot on the left side of someone's infield. He plays shortstop for now, but at 6'4" and close to 200 lbs, he has the kind of frame that just begs for a prospect writer to say he'll move to another position down the road. I love this guy, and I'll have a whole lot more on him later on.

[Jenkins5]

Overall If I am going bat at 5 it is Rutherford or Lowe. The more I read about Lowe, the more he becomes my favorite! Great size, incredible athlete, power potential though the roof, cannon for an arm....oh and he can play 3B and OF.

[Jenkins5]

Mayo and Callis have put out their 2016 mock draft and top 50. Much different than what I was previously seeing. Same Groome, Hansen, Puk, Pint, Rutherford talk at the top but outside of that, they have it all shuffled up.

 

Mock Draft

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/158643882/callis-mayo-predict-top-10-picks-in-mock-draft

 

Top 50

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/158672524/jason-groome-no-1-on-2016-top-50-draft-list?topicid=151437456

 

 

They have a who bunch of college hitting OF's at the top of the draft which as of right now I most don't touch. Ray doesn't excite me at all nor does Reynolds, high floor type guys with good not great ceilings. Reed & Lewis are raw high ceiling guys. Reed is a switch hitting Cain to me that may take awhile to figure out his swing. Lewis is a small school guy who could be a stud RF down the road. Banks will be in discussions as well. Only 3 HS OF bats as of now appear to be striking distance (they didn't even include Beer in top 50 so Pint and Beer could still happen!) Rutherford appears to be a lock in the top 5-10. Mickey Moniak appears to be this years Trent Clark pure professional hitter. Benson is said to have scouts crying Hayward and at 6'6 220 has massive power potential from the corner. To me if I am going to go OF at #5 (which as of now Rutherford maybe Reed/Lewis if they go nuts this spring):

 

Rutherford

Reed

Lewis

---------

Moniak

Ray

Banks

Benson

Reynolds

 

At 3B a lot of good HS bats there, some that may slip to 2nd round

Lowe is my favorite, I think he is one to consider at 5 if you are going Bat

Mendoza, Kieboom, Jones all stand chances of dropping to 2nd round

 

Really this draft is all about the arms. They have Tyler, Anderson, Bergner ranked 26, 28, 31.....few months ago those guys were getting top 10 love.

 

I know everyone loves Arcia, however I still consider taking Perez at #5. I think he will be a top prospect in the near future. Never draft based on position right?

[MrTPlush]

I know A LOT can(and will) change, but I would be really surprised if we drafted a bat #5. There are 4 pitchers who are usually considered 1-4 in rankings. Past that the best bats available are mostly OFers. Not that we should draft based on need(or lack of), but we are loaded with OFers up and down the minors. That would be a questionable pick if you ask me.

 

At this point it would be an easy pick of Groome, Puk, Hansen, or Pint depending on who dropped to us. I can't fathom the Brewers not going with a potential ace with their first pick.

[CheezWizHed]

Past that the best bats available are mostly OFers. Not that we should draft based on need(or lack of), but we are loaded with OFers up and down the minors.

 

Exactly. Not on need. BPA. Most of our OFers fall into one of two categories:

- High AVE/OPB types that can or may play CF. (Maverick, Taylor, Reed, Clark) - Clark and Maverick have a chance at above average power for a CF or average power for a corner OF.

- High K types with power and lowerish AVE. (Santana, Roache, Coulter)

- Harrison looks like the only one with a legit chance at getting over 900 OPS in the MLB regularly.

 

If they get someone that can project for a high AVE/OBP/SLG, no one in the corner OF is going to block. If a 3B or 1B is there with the same ability, great. But don't pass on a great OF just because we have a bunch to take a lesser 1B/3B.

[Jenkins5]

Yeah I much prefer us taking one of the potential aces sitting right there for us. A lot can change by time draft comes though. Only real reason for taking a bat is that there are so few high impact ones as of right now. You have a better chance of hitting on an impact arm in the 2nd round than a bat. If you get Rutherford, Lowe, Perez in top 5, you may still steal a high ceiling pitcher who dropped a bit in the 2nd. This class is all about pitching with not much for bats.

 

Lowe I think has the talent to shot up the boards this spring and make himself worth consideration at 5. Rutherford has to have a terrible spring and show no ability to make contact in order top drop out of top 5-10 range. Reed & Lewis are very hit or miss. I'd gladly take a pitcher 10/10 times over even considering Ray and Reynolds. Reynolds may hit and get on base a lot but has a noodle arm, okay speed, limited power. He is a high floor guy. Ray is solid all around guy but doesn't have that 1 plus tool that makes his ceiling high enough for a top 5 pics.

[Austin Tatious]

I hope a couple of bats like Perez or Rutherford go ahead of us so we can get one of Groome, Puk, or Hansen. Those guys stand out as potential aces.

[Jenkins5]

I talked to Colby on Twitter last week about the draft and more particularly Lowe. It is looking like he may already be in consideration for top 5. I think Lowe is maybe the one bat that I would really struggle to pass on. His bat is explosive with ton of power potential and appears to be contact hitter. However, what really seperates him is he is said to be a good defender at 3B with maybe the most insane arm across the diamond. He is out there slinging it 94+ Mph 3rd to 1st.

 

I would love any of the aces but man, Josh Lowe could be special too. In a draft that lacks many possible elite bats, could be smart to grab one.

 

I repeat again though Groom Pike or Hanson I'd love. Puk needs to put in all together this season. He still more arm talented than pitching talented (if that makes sense).

[3and2Fastball]

Josh Lowe is, indeed, the play at # 5. He has the glove, the hit tool and the speed. Check out that Double @ 1:20 of the video. He can flat out fly. 95 mph across the diamond at 3B with an elite lefty bat and 6.6 60 speed. I wouldn't hesitate to pick that kid at #5. 6'3" frame too

 

Check it out around the 1:50 mark: he's almost at 2nd when the ball skips the fence.

 

[Jenkins5]

Josh Lowe is, indeed, the play at # 5. He has the glove, the hit tool and the speed. Check out that Double @ 1:20 of the video. He can flat out fly. 95 mph across the diamond at 3B with an elite lefty bat and 6.6 60 speed. I wouldn't hesitate to pick that kid at #5. 6'3" frame too

 

Check it out around the 1:50 mark: he's almost at 2nd when the ball skips the fence.

 

 

Exactly my point! This kid could be REALLY special! I'd be very hard pressed to pass on him even for an Ace. He could be our next Braun who can actually play 3B!

[brewcrewdue80]

For the love on Lowe, the video doesn't impress me. Definitely would work on it some. Loose and flippy I see. Which I'd attribute sapping his true power. Have to give him kudos though because I think every at bat in the video was vs a Lefty, and that may have to do more with his swing.

 

Extension is pretty much what I think isn't happening. Now that is probably a fairly easy fix and the Lefty bat with a 90+MPH arm from 3b may be the big thing to drool about.

 

Here's some Demi O.

 

I see the power stroke in the swing here. With Lowe, I see more of slap hitting stroke.

[BrewBalls]

Does anyone else hope Chris Okey is still on the board when we pick in the 2nd rd?

[MrTPlush]

Does anyone else hope Chris Okey is still on the board when we pick in the 2nd rd?

 

Only way we get him is if we spend the #5 pick on him, which with a great year wouldn't be unreasonable. He is the top catcher and a safe pick to stay behind the plate. Would be shocked if he was passed up that many times to make it to our second pick.

[Jenkins5]

Baseball America's Top 100 HS prospects

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/groome-pint-debate-headlines-class-16/

 

Nice piece on Rizzo & Cantu, both 3B's who could be there for us in 2nd round

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ulysses-cantu-joe-rizzo-catching/

 

Good chat on many of the top 100 near misses

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/high-school-top-100-chat/

[3and2Fastball]

As a Wisconsin Baseball fan it is exciting to see 2 Wisconsin kids, Ben Rortvedt & Gavin Lux, in the Top 50. I actually thought Rortvedt would be in the Top 15-20. I've heard he may go in the 1st Round. Not sure if he will stick at C in the pros, but he has a legit bat.

 

I've seen Cooper Johnson from Illinois play. I've heard scouts talk about how his arm and defense at C are MLB ready right now. Not sure if he'll hit well enough to be a MLB starter though

[baybeachbum1]

Young Geezy1 - Thank you for these links. I've just spent an hour and a half dreaming! Go Brewers!!!

[Jenkins5]

Another real good draft site

http://www.fueledbysports.com/2016-mlb-mock-draft/

 

I'd put money on Zack Collins being Jack Zs pick at 5 if he was here.

[reillymcshane]

Another real good draft site

http://www.fueledbysports.com/2016-mlb-mock-draft/

 

I'd put money on Zack Collins being Jack Zs pick at 5 if he was here.

I see they have Cal Quantrill going in the #6 spot to Oakland. Cal is the son of former major leaguer Paul Quantrill - who I remember more as last Wisconsin Badger to play in the majors.

[Eye Black]

The new site 2080baseball.com is a very exciting up and coming baseball scouting resource. Recently partnered with colbyjack's Perfect Game staff, seems like an excellent match.

 

From the 2080 site, here is a breakdown of current candidates to go first overall in this year's draft:

2016 MLB Draft early candidates for 1-1

 

The list contains nine players, so certainly some of the same guys the Brewers will be scouting for their first selection.

 

One noticeable omission from the list that I've seen mentioned as a candidate to go in the top 5-10 range, Puerto Rican SS Delvin Perez. In the chat linked above BA's Hudson Belinsky projects Perez as Milwaukee's selection. Curious if anyone has a good scouting report or more information on him? So far I have only come across a few short blurbs and a couple of videos. Sounds like his glove is ahead of his bat at this point, but I am intrigued nevertheless. I know Keith Law recently touted Perez as a candidate to be the top overall draft pick, but I haven't seen what scouting information accompanied his assertion.

 

The top pitchers are certainly taking the headlines at the top of this year's draft class. Barring injuries it looks possible 3-4 pitchers could go before the Brewers selection. Groome is the one guy I think I would consider drafting at #5 even if he suffered an arm injury this Spring. That is probably crazy, but everything I have seen, heard, and read paint him as an elite combination of stuff to paired with very good control and command.

[colbyjack]

Thanks Eye Black. Definitely give 2080baseball a look, as yours truly and some of my other PG compadres will also be contributing. There's some really good scouts working of them with a lot of folks that used to form the prospect team at Baseball Prospectus.

 

Delvin Perez is very intriguing. He defines projectability in a position prospect with a long, tall yet narrow and not yet physically filled out frame. Quick-twitch actions all over the place with 6.5 speed and a low-90s arm from across the infield. He's made good adjustments at the plate giving him a solid hit tool and budding power. That's a 5-tool profile from one of the most demanding positions on the field, so yes I would expect him to be in the top 5-10 conversation. No. 1 overall may be a stretch, but that has more to do with who else is available.

 

If you search YouTube you'll find an incredible play he made at our big national tournament down in Florida in late October. In that same game he led off with an absolute rocket off the wall to deep left-center field that looked to be just inches of clearing the fence. He flicked the bat out so easy and effortlessly, against a pretty good opposing pitcher and overall team to boot, and then turned on the jets for a triple. Upon getting up at third base one of his teammates razzed him a little (because Perez is predominantly Spanish speaking from Puerto Rico) asking him, "Hey Perez, do you know how to spell triple?" Perez responded with a smile with "no, but I know how to spell millionaire."

 

Obviously a very confident/cocky young man as well.

 

And Groome is one of the best amateur pitchers I've ever seen. So incredibly polished, consistently getting MLB OFP scores in the 63-68 range. That's overall on the 20-80 scale, which is just crazy, and he's still getting better. I agree with your assessment of taking him at #5 no matter how he gets that far (I can't imagine him falling past the top 2-3 picks, if he doesn't go No. 1 overall, unless like you said he's injured).

[Eye Black]

Great info and insight colbyjack, THANK YOU!

[3and2Fastball]

Heard that Riley Pint threw 102 mph last week. At this point I think he'll need to punch a nun in the face on National TV in order to drop to Pick # 5.

 

Who's gotta smack talking nun we can borrow?

[paul253]

He's got some control issues doesn't he? I'd prefer to stay from the hard throwing no control type guys. We didn't have much luck with Jones Rogers or Jeffress. I'm desperately hoping Groom falls but that's looking unlikely.