We're Number Five! We're Number Five! - The 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[trwi7]

Glad we're picking up these garbage time wins again to hurt our draft pick. After tonight's win the highest we can pick is 4th. The Rockies will most likely finish ahead of us, having a two game lead and the tiebreaker with 4 to go. We have the tiebreaker with Oakland but they're 2.5 ahead of us with 5 to go for them and 4 for us.

 

At this point I'm just hoping we can hold off Miami who we are 1 game ahead of but they have the tiebreaker.

[LouisEly]

The Reds losing 11 straight, the A's losing 9 of their last 11, and the Rockies going 3-7 in their last 10 have more to do with the Brewers draft position than picking up a few garbage wins.

 

Yes, they've won three in a row, but they went 5-15 over the previous 20. They've shut down Braun, Peralta, and Nelson, have relegated Lucroy to PH and a few innings at 1B, and their starting rotation is all rookies (and they're giving Schafer a lot of playing time).

 

Aside from shutting down K-Rod and Lind (which will do nothing to help their trade value and only invite grievances from the players union), I don't see any more tanking that could possibly be done. The value they can get in trade with Lind proving he is healthy and K-Rod showing he is still an elite closer is much greater than the value of one or two slots in the draft.

[paul253]

It is what it is. It is nice to see guys like Davies and Pena pitching well but it is frustrating watching people like Segura finally decide to play well when all season he was pretty much garbage.

 

As for Lind and Krod. I doubt their trade value is affected much either way by their performance over the last two weeks of the season. I'd argue it's more important for the future of the franchise to see if Jason Rogers can hit well enough to play every day next season and to see how Jetemey Jeffress or Will Smith perform when they try to close out a one run game. I think it's a bit ridiculous to suggest not playing Lind more than once or twice a week over the last two-three weeks or having someone other than KRod close out games will invite a grievance. The explanation would be so obvious it wouldn't even be worth arguing against.

[colbyjack]

Had some fun going through some names to think about between now and next June. Obviously a lot can and will happen between now and then, but here's a list of guys most likely to be in the discussion for the early picks:

 

College arms:

Alec Hansen, rhp, Oklahoma (gaining steam as potential 1/1, huge righty with stuff to match)

A.J. Puk, lhp, Florida (still has some command issues to work out but can dial it up to 97 as LHP)

Robert Tyler, rhp, Georgia (missed some time last year due to injury, but very easy 97-99 w/ life)

 

Keep an eye on: Mike Shawaryn, rhp, Maryland (personal favorite of mine, cons. 93-94, command of 3 pitches)

Wildcard: Cal Quantrill, rhp, Stanford (was candidate for 1/1 prior to TJ surgery last spring, coming back strong)

Wildcard #2: Matt Krook, lhp, Oregon (had TJ surgery fresh. year 2 years ago, looked very good on Cape w/ low-90s heat, big hook)

 

College bats:

Nick Banks, of, Texas A&M (polished LH swing, good all-around athlete, could play CF, better fit in RF)

Bryan Reynolds, of, Vanderbilt (switch-hitter is a great all-around athlete, plays CF, can play all 3 positions)

 

Keep an eye on: Nick Senzel, 2b/3b, Tennessee (could soar up thanks to huge summer on Cape, good, not great all-around player)

 

High School arms:

Jason Groome, lhp, NJ (current #1 prep player, big arm, command, keeps getting better)

Riley Pint, rhp, KS (not as much of a slam dunk right now, big-time arm but inconsistent)

Ian Anderson, rhp, NY (mid-90s now, keeps getting better, very good secondaries, really on the rise)

 

Keep an eye on: Reggie Lawson, rhp, CA (live and easy RH arm strength keeps getting better at big, national events)

 

High School bats:

Blake Rutherford, of, CA (huge power potential, very good all-around athlete, my personal fave for #1 pick)

Josh Lowe, 3b/rhp, GA (Exciting 2-way prospect, preferred by most now as LH hitter w/ good speed, big arm at hot corner)

 

Keep an eye on: Drew Mendoza, 3b, FL (looks like a big-league player physically, huge upside w/ LH swing)

Keep an eye on: Cole Stobbe, ss/3b, NE (also passes eye test, ball really jumps off RH bat)

Keep an eye on: Luis Curbelo, ss, PR (keeps moving up with solid tools across, not as dynamic as Correa but not far off)

Keep an eye on: Mickey Moniak, of, CA (best pure hitter in draft, more gap power at this stage, good all-around athlete)

Keep an eye on: Joe Rizzo, 3b, VA (maybe the best pure hitter available in draft after Moniak, big power, baseball rat)

Keep an eye on: Avery Tuck, of, CA (huge upside, just not as polished/experience as other players listed, great oppo power)

 

Obviously there's a lot of prep bats in this year's class. One I really like is Ben Rortvedt who is a catcher from New Glarus that really helped himself with a huge summer. I agree with the comments shared above that there's a pretty big organizational hole at the position, and while I wouldn't go too far out of the way to address it (as others have also mentioned), I think Rortvedt could be an excellent target for the team's 2nd pick.

 

Gavin Lux is another Wisconsin prep (2b/ss) to keep an eye on from the Kenosha area. And rhp Kyle Cody of Kentucky is back for his senior year after he opted not to sign with the Twins this past year. Cody has a huge arm, he just needs to pull everything together. Overall it's a good year for Wisconsin and there's more to come in future years as well.

[nate82]

If the Brewers stay where they are at I think it is extremely likely that Shawaryn who is my #1 pick if I am the Brewers will be available but anything and everything can and probably will happen between now and next June.

[paul253]

Two games left one game behind Colorado and Oakland.

[splitterpfj]

The Brewers will pick fifth in the 2016 draft, following Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Atlanta and Colorado.

 

I know some of you aren't happy about this, but I am. The Brewers will pick early in a draft with solid depth, and they'll have plenty of cash to use on whoever slips to them in round two.

[paul253]

It's not that we aren't happy. It's that one less win and we pick fourth. One less win means absolutely nothing. Literally nothing. And it would give one more option plus more money to sign draftees. But it is what it is. It could have been worse. I'm really hoping Groom falls but I have a feeling if he's healthy he's gone.

[logan82]

The Brewers will pick fifth in the 2016 draft, following Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Atlanta and Colorado.

 

I know some of you aren't happy about this, but I am. The Brewers will pick early in a draft with solid depth, and they'll have plenty of cash to use on whoever slips to them in round two.

We lost a significant amount of money for the draft in just the last week. $837,000 with just one more loss. Two more losses and we would have picked 3rd and gained $2,034,600 for the draft. That is a significant amount of money.

[homer]

Top five is fine. No reason to be upset at all. If they had won one more game they'd have passed Oakland.

[brewmann04]

happy to get a top 5 pick should get a very good ball player. Really trust what Ray is ging to do in 2016 draft.

[jw5511986]

On the plus side, based on last year's draft we should have 4 picks inside approximately the top 80, so plenty of opportunity to stock up.

[Jenkins5]

With a top 5 pick we are set to get a front line/ Ace ceiling prospect or one of the few elite bats in draft.... Not a bad situation. However, as of now, if the draft had any combo of these 4 guys: Hansen, Groome, Rutherford, Pike off the board already.... I'd be less than thrilled. Lot of depth though up front in this draft.

[brewcrewdue80]

5th probably truly is the best (valued) pick to have for the draft. Cough up 4mil for your choice vs 5,6,7,8 among the top 4. Let's face it, likelihood is the pick will sign to slot. Odds most likely are the team is drafting a ML player. Just like the 4 ahead of them, but half the price as #1 and 1-3mil less as 2-4.

 

I'm happy to have the 5th pick. the worry of climbing beyond 7th didn't come true. Should be a fun prediction game every month we draw closer. Will be easier to draw down what will likely be there and potential draft choice compared to last season.

[jw5511986]

Last decade's worth of #5 picks for posterity's sake: Kyle Tucker, Nick Gordon, Clint Frazier, Kyle Zimmer, Bubba Starling, Drew Pomeranz, Matt Hobgood, Buster Posey, Matt Wieters, Brandon Morrow, and of course Braun. Not counting Braun that's a 5/5 split between College and HS and 6/4 Bats vs Arms. Based on that I'm going to make the way too early and not at all scientific prognostication that we end up with top HS bat Blake Rutherford.

[clancyphile]

My pick?

 

Bryan Reynolds, the switch-hitter. Sorry, just like that.

[paul253]

I really hope we go pitching. There are just so few opportunities to get a pitcher with #1 or even #2 potential. I'd hate to see this opportunity be missed.

[3and2Fastball]

Lot of risk taking a pitcher that high. Tons of boom or bust in recent history.

 

Pitchers who were Top 5 Picks since 2010:

 

Jameson Tailon

Drew Pomeranz

Gerrit Cole

Trevor Bauer

Danny Hultzen

Dylan Bundy

Kevin Gausman

Kyle Zimmer

Mark Appel

Jonathan Gray

Kohl Stewart

Brady Aiken

Carlos Rodon

Tyler Kolek

Dillon Tate

 

Position Players who were Top 5 picks since 2010:

 

Bryce Harper

Manny Machado

Carlos Correa

Kyle Schwarber

Byron Buxton

Kris Bryant

Mike Zunino

Nick Gordon

Dansby Swanson

Alex Bregman

Brendan Rogers

Kyle Tucker

Clint Frazier

 

While I agree it would be awesome to have an ace, lately the players in the Top 5 picks making the biggest impact on their teams have been position players. Last year there was only one pitcher taken in the Top 5, not sure if that is a trend or unique to that draft.

[MrTPlush]

I feel offense has been a general trend recently.

[reillymcshane]

Drafting pitching vs hitting is tough. I think studies have shown picking hitters is more of a sure thing. The problem with that is that if you pick the more reliable guy (the hitter), how do you develop top flight pitching?

 

I don't have the answer to that. It's the problem every team has.

 

I think the Cubs went specifically after high end hitters - the kinds of players who could move quickly through their system and provide impact at the major league level - with every intention of buying starting pitching. Having Arietta become one of the league's best pitchers is a huge surprise, but I think their plan was pretty clear. Get the hitters in place via trades and the draft, then plug in pitching using the team's financial resources. Unfortunately, Milwaukee can't do this. We can't sign a pitcher like Lester and then a pitcher like Price in back-to-back years.

 

While I wouldn't shy away from a pitcher, I'm betting we focus on hitters. We should have a couple of years of high picks to go with the bats we currently have. Then continue to add arms in the later rounds, like Ponce and Kirby, and hope we can develop guys like the Cardinals do - perhaps not #1 types, but a stable of mid rotation guys. You hope a couple of those guys can be even better. Solid rotation, good bullpen and quality depth go with a good lineup. You can even supplement that by using your depth to make a deal when you feel the time is right - like when we added Greinke (but you do that because you have lots of minor league depth).

 

In the end, it's drafting well not just in the 1st round, but in other rounds as well. I know that's obvious, but

[sheetskout]

I see a lot of similarities in our situation now vs. the Cubs from a year or two ago. We need to remember the market differences, however.

 

Our main problem as I see it playing where we do is that there are very few avenues to gaining an ace. I'm sure most of you would agree with this. The Cubs didn't have that. They knew they had the luxury to draft high-end hitting in recent drafts because they have the wallet to later sign Jon Lester (...and David Price, and whomever). They happened to strike gold on Arrieta who was never scouted to show these results but that certainly doesn't happen frequently.

 

I just don't see how we couldn't draft Hansen or Puk at this point if they happened to fall as we also don't have the luxury to wait around for a HS-ace to develop (a la Kershaw) and we certainly can't afford to miss on the pick. Most of the initial mocks I have read show us going Robert Tyler (which I am against - delivery issues).

 

I am usually for a BPA-approach, but missing on this pick would stun this organization for another year, and at this point there really isn't a scouted IF'er that would go in the top-10. I believe Arizona's Bobby Dalbec would be the highest scouted one at the moment.

 

(Things are obviously going to change though)

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd have a hard time passing on Puk as well. He's a big strong lefty from not far away in Cedar Rapids, IA. Seems a natural to me. At worst he becomes a Will Smith type, but with a an upside to be that ace.

[BrewBalls]

I'm hoping one of Puk, Pint, Hansen or Bergner will be available at #5.

[MrTPlush]

We can't wait for a HS ace to develop? It took 2 years for Kershaw to hit the majors and 3 to become a force...how is that waiting too long?

 

This rebuild is going to take 4 years at least realistically. Not picking an elite pitcher because he won't be in the majors next year would be an epic fail on our part.

[paul253]

Personally I'm hoping for Jason Groom at this point. I agree that focusing on college guys because they should hit the big leagues quicker is a mistake. I'd rather have the pitcher with the highest ceiling, preferably one who already has good command. I've had enough of the hard throwing pitchers who can't throw strikes.