We're Number Five! We're Number Five! - The 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[paul253]

I don't buy that all at. I don't buy that an MLB team wouldn't limit innings on young pitchers (Jungmann has already pitched more innings than last year, Nelson would still pass his inning total from last year even if he was limited to five inning starts are Peralta is probably past the point where we need to concern ourselves with building up his innings), let young guys like Jason Rogers (who tore up AAA) play, or allow their starting catcher, who plays darn near every game behind the plate, to get a little extra rest at the end of a disappointing season.

 

And why would letting Jeffress and his 97mph fastball and 2.63 ERA, or Smith, a hard throwing lefty with a 2.79 ERA, actually try to close games, look bad? I'm guessing one of them is our future closer anyway (and should be next year). What harm does getting them experience, however little it may be, do?

[MrTPlush]

I don't buy that all at. I don't buy that an MLB team wouldn't limit innings on young pitchers (Jungmann has already pitched more innings than last year, Nelson would still pass his inning total from last year even if he was limited to five inning starts are Peralta is probably past the point where we need to concern ourselves with building up his innings), let young guys like Jason Rogers (who tore up AAA) play, or allow their starting catcher, who plays darn near every game behind the plate, to get a little extra rest at the end of a disappointing season.

 

And why would letting Jeffress and his 97mph fastball and 2.63 ERA, or Smith, a hard throwing lefty with a 2.79 ERA, actually try to close games, look bad? I'm guessing one of them is our future closer anyway (and should be next year). What harm does getting them experience, however little it may be, do?

 

These guys need to build innings not get to where they were last year or close to it. Jungmann looks like he will get to about 180innings and last year he had 150innings...perfect. Inning limits come into play with guys coming off serious injury or guys who pitched very little the year prior(<125innings typically). Maybe if someone gets injured you can use it as an excuse to shut them down completely, but presently they are all healthy and going to throw as much as they can.

 

It has nothing to do with those guys. It is the fact K-Rod is on this team still. You don't just pull away the job from him like that. Even if you plan to trade him it still wouldn't be wise. You would basically be telling all of baseball you intend to trade him in the off season. I see no point and as you said the experience they would get is very minimal...why even risk negative consequences?

[MrTPlush]

And let me say this. Our problem we need to worry about for next years draft is not where we are drafting, but finding the good players at that pick. There will be future all stars at pick #7 and I will almost bet a future Cy Young will also be on the board.

 

Just for giggles I decided to go to a recent draft by random just to prove my point. Hilariously I picked 2006 and I honestly had no idea who was in that draft, here are some of the picks in the first round:

 

#7 Clayton Kershaw

#10 Tim Lincecum

#11 Max Scherzer

 

There is talent at every single pick in the Top 10. Each of those teams could easily walk away with a franchise player. You guys should be more worried about the effectiveness of our scouting department. Because chances are there will be multiple future aces when our turn comes up. The Kansas City Royals got to pick before EVERYONE else in 2006 yet came away with a pitcher who has less than 3 WAR in his career.

[paul253]

The draft is different now because of the slotting system. On top of earlier drafting teams having the advantage of having more players to choose from they also have the advantage of having more money to spend. So theoretically the Brewers could end up with the same guy at 7 as they would get at 4 but if they pick him at 4 and sign him for under slot they'll have more money to spend on later picks.

 

Look you can slice it any way you want but it's better to pick higher. Obviously you still have to do your homework and draft the right guy but in general the right guy is easier to find when you have more options. We could very well up with an ace at #7 but the liklihood of ending up with an ace at #3 is greater because at 7 four potential options are gone. Things may very well change between now and June but from what I've read there are four pitchers who have a chance of going first overall. With a top four pick you get one of those guys. Picking 7 or 8 you probably don't Again you could still wind up with the best player picking at 7 or 8 but it's not as likely. You are more likely to get a guy whom scouts aren't quite as high on.

[MrTPlush]

Point being everyone is so concerned over something so small and ignoring the most important thing. If we continue to draft the way we have it won't matter if we draft #1 or #30

[TheCrew07]

Point being everyone is so concerned over something so small and ignoring the most important thing. If we continue to draft the way we have it won't matter if we draft #1 or #30

 

Actually I think you are missing the point, most players from college who become superstars are drafted in the first 10 picks, usually the top 5. The Brewers haven't drafted a HS kid who panned out as a 1st division player since Odorizzi. Our best shot at young top of the rotation pitching is to draft in those top 5 slots since the Brewers won't trade for it. We have plenty of 3s, we need some 2s.

 

Our best prospect was a cheap international signing and while I have high hopes for some of the recent HS draftees all of them still have significant warts with Trent Clark being the exception(at least on paper since I haven't gotten to watch him as a pro).

[nate82]

 

Actually I think you are missing the point, most players from college who become superstars are drafted in the first 10 picks, usually the top 5. The Brewers haven't drafted a HS kid who panned out as a 1st division player since Odorizzi. Our best shot at young top of the rotation pitching is to draft in those top 5 slots since the Brewers won't trade for it. We have plenty of 3s, we need some 2s.

 

 

 

If you are looking for a #2 like pitcher then Mike Shawaryn would be your guy and he should be available in the 5-10 pick range. Robert Tyler is a name to watch as he may bypass all of the players on the list already he has a Plus Plus fastball and maybe the 1st pick in the draft depending on how good he pitches. He looks to be a max effort type of a pitcher though so I would stay away from him. Jason Groome could be available also in the top 10 somewhere. I like Riley Pint and AJ Puk the best but both could be gone before the Brewers pick even if they were in the top 5 both could easily go #1. Connor Jones is another player who will be available in the top 15 who profiles close to a #2 but will probably ultimately become a #3 type pitcher.

 

As long as the Brewers stay in the top 10 I don't see a problem with the Brewers getting a pitcher like you describe. Though it is way too early to tell who is going to go in the top 10 as injuries, performance, and other things that may happen make it difficult to truly say who the Brewers could even draft right now. A pick in the top 10 is almost guaranteed right now. The Brewers will be picking in the 6-10 range that is a given and they still have a possibility to finish with a top 5 pick.

[MrTPlush]

Without a doubt many top of the rotation pitchers are being picked in the Top 15, but many if not more are actually picked outside of the Top 5 and somewhere else in the Top 15. I went back to the late 1990's and honestly teams outside the Top 5 were having better luck finding an ace.

 

Since 1999

 

Top 5:

Gerrit Cole

David Price

Justin Verlander

Josh Beckett

 

Picks 5-15:

Jose Fernandez

Matt Harvey

Chris Sale

Madison Bumgarner

Tim Lincecum

Clayton Kershaw

Max Sherzer

Jared Weaver

Zack Greinke

Barry Zito

Ben Sheets

 

I don't see where picking in the Top 5 makes you more likely to walk away with an ace. Now I understand a lot of this can depend on a teams specific needs, but it isn't like pitchers aren't being selected in the Top 5. Many are being selected and many are just turning into total busts(Mark Rogers!).

[brewcrewdue80]

Without a doubt many top of the rotation pitchers are being picked in the Top 15, but many if not more are actually picked outside of the Top 5 and somewhere else in the Top 15. I went back to the late 1990's and honestly teams outside the Top 5 were having better luck finding an ace.

 

Since 1999

 

Top 5:

Gerrit Cole

David Price

Justin Verlander

Josh Beckett

 

Picks 5-15:

Jose Fernandez

Matt Harvey

Chris Sale

Madison Bumgarner

Tim Lincecum

Clayton Kershaw

Max Sherzer

Jared Weaver

Zack Greinke

Barry Zito

Ben Sheets

 

I don't see where picking in the Top 5 makes you more likely to walk away with an ace. Now I understand a lot of this can depend on a teams specific needs, but it isn't like pitchers aren't being selected in the Top 5. Many are being selected and many are just turning into total busts(Mark Rogers!).

 

Basically you're showing exact same odds. 5 within top 5 and 11 with 6-15 Or is it 1-4 and 5-15 then it's better odds 4 picks to get 5 vs 11picks to get 11.

 

 

It's not the lack of quality as it is the lesser chance to pick that quality player. My favorite two player for this year's draft Allard/Whitley went both just before the Brewers picked. The Trout miss easy example. Sure there could be a stud player to select, but there's less studs likely to select from. And how well does your draft team do when the player they are targeting is picked just ahead of your selection? Eric Arnett is out of baseball. #1 player to a nobody. Shows why picking higher up if possible should be considered. 2010 Chris Sale went ahead of Dylan Covey. 2011. George Springer ahead of Jungmann and Jose Fernandez ahead of Bradley.

 

Trout, Sale, Springer, and Fernandez. in 3 years. for Jungmann to show for it.

[LouisEly]

It has been well documented that Jose Fernandez would have only signed with Miami or Tampa, thus why he was still available where he was.

 

The Brewers could have had Trout... if Teixeria had one less hit in 2008. The Brewers would have had the Yankees comp pick, which turned into Trout, and still made the playoffs (and generated the playoff revenue).

 

I'm working on an analysis of the impact of the draft bonus pool implementation in 2012 and unsigned pick compensation in 2010 by looking at the 2011 and 2009 drafts. If you rank players based on signing bonuses in the 2011 draft, Jungmann comes in at #16 and Bradley comes in at #21. Remember, the Bradley pick was not protected because it was a comp pick from the year before, and thus it didn't matter what the Brewers did, that pick spot could not change. (And there was no way the Brewers could have taken a HS kid with that pick since it was not protected. Any halfway competent agent would have leveraged that to the hilt.)

[brewcrewdue80]

Okay can scratch Fernandez. True loss is Sale with the Covey pick.

[MrTPlush]

Okay can scratch Fernandez. True loss is Sale with the Covey pick.

 

Or maybe we would have picked Covey regardless...never know. Maybe we really wanted a righty, really wanted a prep arm, or we didn't like Sale's arm slot.

 

Sometimes the guy you would rather have had turns out to be a bust and you take the less touted guy who turns into an ace. Sometimes you don't get the guy you wanted, but down the road it turns out to be good. Really I think anywhere in the Top 8 picks is pretty good. No matter what you are going to have quite a selection of high profile guys. Sure there might be less to pick from, but it it won't be as big of a deal as good scouting and pure luck will be.

 

Also with next years draft be so pitcher heavy I wouldn't be surprised to see some teams focus on offense more and get pitching in the later rounds. I also see a few teams I don't think would consider taking a pitcher Top 5(Reds, Rockies). In the end I would much rather be picking Top 3, but Top 7 ain't too shabby.

[Mass Haas]

MLB Trade Rumors added the Reverse Standings page for 2015 today, so add to your favorites.

[LouisEly]

Okay can scratch Fernandez. True loss is Sale with the Covey pick.

Melvin has said that the reason they didn't draft Bumgarner was because of his arm slot. So it wouldn't surprise me if that was the case with Sale.

 

A funny story about Sale is that the reason the Mets drafted deGrom was because they were scouting Sale and deGrom was the opposing pitcher in that game. deGrom, having been converted from a SS that season and recently moved to the stating rotation, wasn't real high on anyone's radar until that day. They take a flyer on him in the 9th round, and the rest is history.

 

Sometimes scouting is about being at the right games at the right time. You can't have scouts watching every game.

[MrTPlush]

Brewers still have a shot at #3. They only trail that spot by 2 games. Of course there are quite a few other teams in between them and that pick. On the other hand they have a comfortable lead of 3.5 games over the Tigers for #7

[paul253]

Awesome day today if you're looking to move up in the draft. Every team currently behind us in the standings won except for Philly. I don't see any realistic chance we catch philly or Atlanta (who says you can't tank in baseball). Hopefully things work out and we end up at 3 but I'm thinking we end up in the 5-7 range.

[Outlander]

Definitely have a chance to pick up ground next week with a brutal 7 game stretch at Chicago and St Louis. Would be nice to lose a couple to the Reds this weekend.

[LouisEly]

I think the other thing we need to keep in mind is how tough of a division the Brewers play in. The NL Central houses three teams that are among the five best records in baseball. If you look at records against the rest of the NL excluding the NL Central:

 

STL (43-20) - .682 winning %

PIT (45-14) - a ridiculous .763 winning %!!

CHC (41-25) - .621 winning %

 

If you include interleague play, their winning % are .650 (STL), .734 (PIT), and .588 (CHC). That .588 winning % of the Cubs, compared to all non-NL Central team's overall winning percentages, would be second only to the Royals.

 

Yeah, it's easy to look bad against teams like that.

[logan82]

I think the other thing we need to keep in mind is how tough of a division the Brewers play in. The NL Central houses three teams that are among the five best records in baseball. If you look at records against the rest of the NL excluding the NL Central:

 

STL (43-20) - .682 winning %

PIT (45-14) - a ridiculous .763 winning %!!

CHC (41-25) - .621 winning %

 

If you include interleague play, their winning % are .650 (STL), .734 (PIT), and .588 (CHC). That .588 winning % of the Cubs, compared to all non-NL Central team's overall winning percentages, would be second only to the Royals.

 

Yeah, it's easy to look bad against teams like that.

Those teams are built on young players. Yet another reason we should be rebuilding.

[MrTPlush]

I could see us jumping up to 3 or 4. Over half our remaining games are against the Cubs or Cards...we could get bashed around pretty bad if the offense goes cold.

[Jenkins5]

Another quarter is vs Reds who seem to not even try against the Brewers

[Outlander]

Never like to see Braun or Lucroy hurt but the step down from those two is pretty steep. Top 5 seems more and more likely.

[Jenkins5]

Top 6 equals one of Pint, Groom, Hansen, Puk, Tyler, Bergner as of now. Plenty of other guys like Ruthledge/Banks/Beer could push those arms down further. The more I look at it, all these arms are fairly close right now. All tier 1 guys as of right now IMO. We finish top 7 we are in very good shape still

[And That]

Partly reposted from the "Can we please stop winning" thread in the Major League forum, here are the slot values for the first seven picks in this past June draft:

 

While the talent may be somewhat of a crapshoot between picks 1 through 7, the money you get is not. Here are the 2015 draft slot values for the first seven picks, along with 105% of that amount to represent how much the team could spend based on that slot value, without forfeiting a future draft pick, and along with the decrease in value from the next highest slot value:

 

1. $8,616,900 ($9,047,745)

2. $7,420,100 ($7,791,105) | -$1,196,800 (-$1,256,640) / -13.89%

3. $6,223,300 ($6,534,465) | -$1,196,800 (-$1,256,640) / -16.13%

4. $5,026,500 ($5,277,825) | -$1,196,800 (-$1,256,640) / -19.23%

5. $4,188,700 ($4,398,135) | -$837,800 (-$879,690) / -16.67%

6. $3,889,500 ($4,083,975) | -$299,200 (-$314,160) / -7.14%

7. $3,590,400 ($3,769,920) | -$299,100 (-$314,055) / -7.69%

 

So going by last year's rates, the Brewers have picked up $565k in slot value money in the past two days. Philly and Atlanta have slots 1 and 2 more or less locked down, but if the Brewers could "get to" #3, that would be huge.

[MrTPlush]

A lose to the Reds has tied us with the Rockies for the #3 pick...Rockies win tiebreaker due to worse record last year.