We're Number Five! We're Number Five! - The 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[ebmackenzie]

If Sterns is dead set on getting pitching coming back in any possible Braun or Lucroy trade instead of getting the best player available...isn't this setting the stage for taking a position of need over the best player available in the draft?

 

Aside from the obvious time between transaction and potential MLB call up, what is the difference in passing on BPA for pitching in trades and doing so in the draft?

[MrTPlush]

Totally agree Paul. I would really prefer a pitcher over an OFer. Also would prefer someone who will project better at their position(Senzel/Collins). Ray/Rutherford/etc. just don't have the ceiling I would personally prefer at #5.

 

However the Brewers scouts probably know more and maybe they think Rutherford is the next great thing. I am fine with that then. However I don't support an underslot deal where they take a guy lower on their board. I want the guy they think is the best.

[CheezWizHed]

Just a comment on our current outfielders. I agree that after Clark and Phillips the talent level goes down. I'm extremely disappointed by Taylor and Coulter This year. But the opportunities to get good outfielders are so much more prevalent than the opportunities to get good pitchers. Solid outfielders are usually cheaper in FA. Teams are generally more willing to trade outfield prospects. And it's usually easier to get one inthe draft. Plus you can stick someone in the outfield if they can't cut it in the infield (Braun and Coulter for example) Look at last year we got Clark at 15. Unless the draft is absolutely stacked you're not getting a potential #1 at 15. I just think we HAVE to take Groome Pint or Puk if available, maybe even Garrett if they think he's TOR potential.

 

One minor disagreement here. Demi Orimoloye and Monte Harrison are equally (or more) talented. But also have a lower floor as Monte is currently demonstrating.

[Warning Track Power]

Totally agree Paul. I would really prefer a pitcher over an OFer. Also would prefer someone who will project better at their position(Senzel/Collins). Ray/Rutherford/etc. just don't have the ceiling I would personally prefer at #5.

 

However the Brewers scouts probably know more and maybe they think Rutherford is the next great thing. I am fine with that then. However I don't support an underslot deal where they take a guy lower on their board. I want the guy they think is the best.

Amen. If the Brewers are fully committed to a rebuild and building a team through the draft and one of Puk, Groome or Pint are there, you have to take the chance at a top of the rotation starter rather than the all star bat. Put another way, if we could see the future and Rutherford became the next Trout and Groome the next Kershaw, who would you be praying the Brewers take? I know who I would be praying for and it isn't even close.

[SRB]

I don't want them to pick Ray either, but let's keep things in perspective. I don't want Ray because there are several players I find much more intriguing, not because I think Ray is bad. Just as a *draft prospect* (who knows what he turns into), Corey Ray would almost surely be the best player drafted by the Brewers since Ryan Braun. There's a reason he's a consensus top-5 or top-10 talent in every mock, and it's not because he's boring or because he has a low ceiling. You don't get picks like Eric Arnett at #5 overall.

[mlloyd10]

Forrest Whitley is who i want - 3 plus pitches - Plus dude is 6'7"

[Surhoff5]

I know I am in the minority on this board, but I would much prefer a hitter over a pitcher this year. I think it is more important that the Brewers don't miss than getting a potential front line pitcher. There is just too much volatility with all the choices this year. Based on their history, I also don't trust the Brewers minor league instructors to develop said pitcher correctly.

 

I do 100% agree with Plush though in that I don't want it to be an under slot signing. If they think Ray, Rutherford, or whomever is the best bat available, then that is who I want them to take.

[CheezWizHed]

Groome at #5: People talk about sign-ability concerns, but how does the 2017 draft look? I've heard this year is a bit of a down year. So if next year projects to be better, having the #5 pick next year wouldn't be the end of the world. Of course you have to pick someone "safe" next year, but still could be better.

 

I'm leaning to Groome as my preference as long as he doesn't have a Lawrie attitude...

 

Edit - And in the back of my mind, I wonder about a Groome/Perez #1/#2 where Perez is the underslot pick due to the drug test. But I wonder if Perez will really drop that far.

 

If yes, it might make sense for Perez to go to JC and "clean up" his act. Then come back in the 2018 draft.

[MrTPlush]

It was reported Groome wants $4mil minimum so we wouldn't/shouldn't have trouble signing him. Also if we fail to sign the #5 guy this year we get next years #6 pick.

[Jenkins5]

So from all that I have gathered:

1. Puk or Moniak..... Lewis outside shot

2. Puk or Senzel

3. Anderson, Garrett, Lewis, or Ray

4. Moniak or Pint

 

So I predict either

Puk, Senzel, Lewis/Anderson, Moniak

Or

Moniak, Puk, Lewis/Anderson, Pint

 

Braves & Brewers are most difficult to peg in top 5

[Boomer5]

Is this a quantity or quality pick at 5? Quantity where you go underslot and make it up in the later picks or quality where go for a Groome/Puk and build from there?

 

The question really is how does the Brewers FO view the farm right now? I would have to imagine they cant be as happy today as we all thought they would be when the season started.

[billymac]

I don't think it would be wise to go underslot and compete with the top 3 teams. With the possiblity of Moniak, Senzel and Anderson going underslot before we pick, they will have tons of cash(tons of cash already) to nab falling talent in the comp and 2nd round before us. Stick with best player available.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think it would be wise to go underslot and compete with the top 3 teams. With the possiblity of Moniak, Senzel and Anderson going underslot before we pick, they will have tons of cash(tons of cash already) to nab falling talent in the comp and 2nd round before us. Stick with best player available.

 

Yah that has been my thought for a couple weeks now. Between the teams you mentioned there is also the Padres who could easily do some underslot magic.

[dacrew101]

Looks like I'm alone in the Ray fan club, hope they pick him

[MrTPlush]

Looks like I'm alone in the Ray fan club, hope they pick him

 

You aren't alone. I like him too, think he is the top OFer, and possibly the best bat available.

 

Still would prefer a pitcher...but won't be too sad getting Corey Ray.

[And That]

John Manuel's T-4 Hour Mock

 

Has Corey Ray to the Brewers - also notes that it is Moniak's floor.

[rwa12]

This is the time, right before the draft, just like in every sport...that we amplify all the warts in these guys. Puk will only be a closer. Ray won't have power. Groome is immature. I think half this stuff is leaked just to lower prices. Braun had a huge hole in his swing. Couldn't hit anything on the hands. It was going to be the plague of his career. The MLB draft, more than any other, is blackjack. Even if you know how to play, even if you make the right decision, the odds aren't with you. Puk is a non-blackjack 21. Even if the dealer draws out, the worst is a push (a closer). Ray is a 19 against a 5. More often than not it'll win. Pint/Groome in my Opinion are like doubling down on 10 against a face card. There are three pretty common outcomes. The dealer gives you an Ace (TOR fulfilled), a face (closer/back end starter)(most likely a push against the likely dealer 20, or you draw garbage and the dealer crushes you (minor league washout). The decision in this case, is the judgment of doubling a 10 into a 10. By blackjack theory, you are hoping for a push. There is risk/reward, it isn't a no-brainer. If the Brewers feel they can bust on this pick, then take one of the volatile arms. If they feel they have to give themselves the best chance at risk mitigation, then the young arms (this year at least) are a bad idea. If we're still multiple years away, and will have many more chances to take risks, then go for it. If DS think we're maybe 2 years away, probably better to take a higher floor. Not advocating a Jungmann, but at #5, there are high floor/high ceiling guys available.

 

Sorry, didn't have time to fully flush out this train of thought, and not sure it ever gets anywhere...

[JackNicholson1974]

I dont like Ray simply because he reminds me a lot of former Brewers #1 draft pick, Chad Green. I don't know why but he just does, then I go look up Chad Green on wikipedia and holy smokes, he went to Louisville (although my memory was Kentucky). I think that's a sign.

[LouisEly]

If all goes well, here is what I would like to see:

 

1 (#5): any of Groome, Puk, Pint, or Lowe

2 (#46): Ben Rortvedt, John Duplantier, Lucas Erceg (can Joe Rizzo move to catcher?)

2b (#75): Hunter Bishop, Jameson Fisher, Ben Bowden

3 (#82): Zack Brown, Jesus Luzardo, Matt Krook

4 (#111): Logan Ice, Keegan Akin, Brigham Hill

Found a new 3rd/4th round guy - Will Smith, C, Louisville.

[JackNicholson1974]

John Manuel's T-4 Hour Mock

 

Has Corey Ray to the Brewers - also notes that it is Moniak's floor.

 

That's tough to read when the next 6 picks are pitchers.

[ZBTMP]

John Manuel's T-4 Hour Mock

 

Has Corey Ray to the Brewers - also notes that it is Moniak's floor.

 

Lux up to 13? I guess I can stop dreaming that he is on the board for round 2.

[Boomer5]

John Manuel's T-4 Hour Mock

 

Has Corey Ray to the Brewers - also notes that it is Moniak's floor.

 

If they pass up Puk and Groome to pick Ray....

[danzig6767]

I know I am in the minority on this board, but I would much prefer a hitter over a pitcher this year. I think it is more important that the Brewers don't miss than getting a potential front line pitcher. There is just too much volatility with all the choices this year. Based on their history, I also don't trust the Brewers minor league instructors to develop said pitcher correctly.

 

I do 100% agree with Plush though in that I don't want it to be an under slot signing. If they think Ray, Rutherford, or whomever is the best bat available, then that is who I want them to take.

I don't care much at all if a pitcher or position player is selected so long as that guy becomes a really good MLB player.

 

It's busts or guys who only become a mediocre MLB player who were picked top 5 that are killers for a franchise like the Brewers.

[MrTPlush]

Alright so we seem to be drafting an OFer.

[Oldcity]

John Manuel's T-4 Hour Mock

 

Has Corey Ray to the Brewers - also notes that it is Moniak's floor.

 

If they pass up Puk and Groome to pick Ray....

 

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