We're Number Five! We're Number Five! - The 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[Jenkins5]

Have heard some speculation that the Phillies are in on both Moniak and Rutherford, with idea of paying them both in the $4.5-$5.5 million range. In the scenario Moniak would likely be their first pick and Rutherford would go at #42. If they pull it off it would be an impressive haul. Have to think the Brewers are one of the few teams that could throw a wrench in the plan.

 

I see no possible way Rutherford slips 42 picks.....I have hard time seeing him out of top 10. He's not a signability issue. Unless he tells every team that he will absolutely not sign with them....he's already 19 & hasnt switched to a JUCO.... No way he's going to college

[Eye Black]

Have heard some speculation that the Phillies are in on both Moniak and Rutherford, with idea of paying them both in the $4.5-$5.5 million range. In the scenario Moniak would likely be their first pick and Rutherford would go at #42. If they pull it off it would be an impressive haul. Have to think the Brewers are one of the few teams that could throw a wrench in the plan.

 

I see no possible way Rutherford slips 42 picks.....I have hard time seeing him out of top 10. He's not a signability issue. Unless he tells every team that he will absolutely not sign with them....he's already 19 & hasnt switched to a JUCO.... No way he's going to college

If the Phillies were to guarantee him nearly $5 million then there is certainly a chance he becomes this year's Daz Cameron by making it cost prohibitive for other teams to be able to match the Phillies money (with a few exceptions).

 

The Phillies first two selections combine for over $10.5 million in slot value.

[Jenkins5]

Well issue there is that everyone & there mother knew for whole draft process that Daz was a huge signability issue, he was worthy of top 5 pick but every team knew he was way to risky. That is why he fell. I have yet to hear ever the slightest whisper that Rutherford is a signing liability. Some even claim he could be an underslot pick even at 5. He doesn't want to play college ball. Leverage isn't there for him. Doubt day before draft he jacks up his price & becomes some huge signing liability.....free falling out of first & the comps

[MrTPlush]

Rutherford isn't as popular as some think. If he starts slipping out of the Top 10 he could easily become a signability issue. I think it was BaseballAmerica that said the Mets very possibly might be the last team that would take him. If they don't it may open him up to the Phillies second selection.

 

I don't think he would slip that far, but he could slip to a team that can give him $4mil later in the first or comp round.

[DR28]

I still want Collins... We need that legit bat that will move very quickly.

 

This could be a great top of the lineup:

 

Arcia

Phillips

Braun

Collins

 

Or flip Arcia and Phillips

 

Speed and power!

[beekay414]

I want Collins mainly due to the under slot value we'd get from him. Think we'd be able to nab a potential front line starter with our 2nd.

[DR28]

I want Collins mainly due to the under slot value we'd get from him. Think we'd be able to nab a potential front line starter with our 2nd.

 

Yep I totally agree!

[beekay414]

I want Collins mainly due to the under slot value we'd get from him. Think we'd be able to nab a potential front line starter with our 2nd.

 

Yep I totally agree!

 

In fairness, I'm a Kyle Schwarber stan and Collins reminds me a lot of him. The only difference between the two is speed, which, with Collins likely ending up at 1B, it doesn't really matter. Just compare their college numbers...

 

Schwarber

697 AB, .341/.437/.607, 40 HR, 149 RBI, 41 2B, 12 3B, 23 SB, 91 K, 116 BB, .265 ISO

 

Collins

623 AB, .316/.467/.589, 39 HR, 177 RBI, 37 2B, 8 3B, 8 SB, 159 K, 168 BB, .273 ISO

 

Collins has a higher K rate but he's also got a way higher BB rate. The power is similar but seems to be in Collins' advantage. Collins also isn't done racking up numbers with Miami (FL) still being in the NCAA tournament.

[Mudville9]

I want Collins mainly due to the under slot value we'd get from him. Think we'd be able to nab a potential front line starter with our 2nd.

 

Yep I totally agree!

 

While normally I would be all for this, I think there are teams that have way more cash than we do and therefore we should get more bang for our buck at #5. I wouldn't be crushed if we picked Collins, but I would definitely want some big money savings if we are passing on Pint/Groome/Puk/Hudson. While I agree that you don't draft for need, I think its always good to have frontline pitching.

[SRB]

Collins

623 AB, .316/.467/.589, 39 HR, 177 RBI, 37 2B, 8 3B, 8 SB, 159 K, 168 BB, .273 ISO

 

Wow, I'm sure Collins is within the range of reasonableness for our pick, but no way am I taking a guy with those college K numbers at #5 overall.

[Jenkins5]

I see Colliens as a LaPorta, mashing college catcher from state of Florida who will be a 1b.Drafted a little higher than most have him. Will advance fast, be a top 50 prospect & be a piece of the future. Now will he flame out like Matt? I hope not but solely looking at him as a prospect, I think LaPorta is very fair. LaPorta got us CC, all signs pointed to him becoming something special.

 

I pick LaPorta over Schwarber more due to size & positions. Offensively I think fits but complete package, Colliens just reminds me of LaPorta. (Good thing)

[fridaysfrontrow]

I want Delvin Perez way under slot at #5. With the failed drug test any team picking in the top half of the first round should be able to leverage him to take a significant discount since he really has no options (won't be going to college).

[MrTPlush]

Collins

623 AB, .316/.467/.589, 39 HR, 177 RBI, 37 2B, 8 3B, 8 SB, 159 K, 168 BB, .273 ISO

 

Wow, I'm sure Collins is within the range of reasonableness for our pick, but no way am I taking a guy with those college K numbers at #5 overall.

 

Yah I second that. There are plenty of other players we can pick who will save money. I don't think Collins would save as much money as some think.

[Jenkins5]

Issue is its a PED & not a recreational drug. Sure the last thing Brewers want to deal with is another PED situation after the Braun one has finally blown over. Actually even if it is recreational, another Jeffress situation isn't much better at #5. Even at under slot, there is too much talent to pass up for a kid (who is year younger than most in class, will only be 18 all next season, 17 rest of this season) that has these types of issues... Maturity was already an issue, now toss in PED test results.... Take him in 2nd if still there, not 5.

 

This draft is just depth. There is no 1a or 1b it's 1a to 1g or 1h! There are 6-8 guys who really could all equally slot in as rightful #1 picks in this draft. What you are getting at 1, isn't much better than what you are getting at 5-7 except more options

[reillymcshane]

BA is saying that Perez's failed drug test was for a 'performance enhancer'. This could be something like Adderall - but nothing further is detailed.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/perez-shelby-fail-mlsb-drug-tests-2/#u6GSRFefWrMopuW2.97

 

They also noted that Kentucky third baseman/second baseman JaVon Shelby, #260 on their Top 500 list, tested positive for Adderall.

[Jenkins5]

If Perez is adderrall, his camp needs to get that word out asap! He could walk into his doctors office today & get a prescription to use that as an excuse... Play it off as dumb. If it was a REAL PED, that is a bigger issue.

[paul253]

If we don't get Groome or Pint then I'm fine with Collins. I think Puk and Lewis are definitely gone before our pick. But I want a pitcher.......bad.

[wichmae]

If you want a pitcher bad then I think the name we need to target is Braxton Garrett

[Jenkins5]

If you want a pitcher bad then I think the name we need to target is Braxton Garrett

 

I said like three times so far on here but I love Garrett. Safer & may end up best of the 3! He could be the Mark Rogers. We all talked Homer Bailey to death like we have Pint & Groome but we never even really mention Rogers or thought he was a real option at 5 like Garrett. Really if he can bump up to sit 93-94 in a few years to go with his command and natural stuff..... You got a possible Ace!

[reillymcshane]

Collins

623 AB, .316/.467/.589, 39 HR, 177 RBI, 37 2B, 8 3B, 8 SB, 159 K, 168 BB, .273 ISO

 

Wow, I'm sure Collins is within the range of reasonableness for our pick, but no way am I taking a guy with those college K numbers at #5 overall.

Not knowing that much about college baseball, I was curious what other numbers some guys put up in the college ranks. I just used the MLB Pipeline, and there are 6 college bats ranked in the top 30. Here are their strikeout rates:

 

Kyle Lewis #3: 19.7% career, 21.5% for 2016

Corey Ray #6: 20.3% career, 15.0% for 2016

Nick Senzel #7: 13.9% career, 10.0% for 2016

Zack Collins #14: 25.5% career, 27.3% for 2016

Bryan Reynolds #23: 22% career, 25.9 for 2016

Buddy Reed #30: 22.1% career, 24.3 for 2016

 

I'm not sure it says anything, but I figured I'd share.

 

For several of the players, the K rates went up in their final year - perhaps as they go for more long balls they K more. Not uncommon.

 

For some reason, I had this vision of these top guys striking out a lot less. But it seems like they strikeout just as much as the pros.

 

This seems like a weak year for college bats - but maybe it's always like this.

[wichmae]

College bats are terrible this year. Its a massive prep year with a focus on prep pitchers.

[sfl2hnq17]

I'd be all for Garrett, unfortunately the Brewers haven't been connected to him at all.

[Jenkins5]

I'd be all for Garrett, unfortunately the Brewers haven't been connected to him at all.

 

As I said before, neither was Rogers. All hype surrounded Bailey & him being Brewers top target

[markedman5]

[ewitkows]

I really hope we get Senzel