We're Number Five! We're Number Five! - The 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[logan82]

Brewers better get Lohse back in the rotation. Sitting 4/5th but Atlanta is only a game back and Oakland is only a game and a half back. Boston and Oakland are 4 games back. So we still could screw this up and end up picking 9 (or later).

Like we did a couple years ago.

[And That]

Having to go through April of this year and then winding up with like the 12th pick would be so Brewers.

[logan82]

The ending of the 2013 season made me sick to my stomach. That whole season made me sick. Still does thinking about it.

[Outlander]

They have a better chance at 1 than 9. It will be a very pathetic September.

[logan82]

They have a better chance at 1 than 9. It will be a very pathetic September.

I will feel much better about that than a late season surge to drop our pick out of the top 10.

[brewcrewdue80]

Brewers just won't tank like Philly/Cincy/Atlanta have been doing Miami had Fernandez, Stanton, Yelich all on the DL up til Yelich was able to start today. Miami is trying to win their stars can't stay healthy. I'm thinking Milwaukee 4th or 5th worst at season's end. Philly, Cincy, Atl, Milw/Mia, Oakland/Mariners

 

Cincy could end up at #1 they have worse pitching now than Philly w/o Cueto/Leake and Philly Starting Aaron Nola.

Atl has been in tank mode since January.

Miami does get back Stanton and Fernandez I believe which should add wins for Sept. I'm sure they get Phi/Atl 10games in Sept. Probably win 8of them and that is how Milw gets 4th behind Phi/Atk but ahead of Mia.

Sept is Division month so maybe there's hope as Atl/Phi/Mia all play each other that someone has to win. Milw by far has the toughest schedule remaining of any team forthcoming

[MrTPlush]

It would be so baseball not Brewers. Teams go through hot streaks and cold streaks. I highly doubt the Brewers could have such a hot streak to push them down past 5th or 6th. Not only would they have to play well, but the teams around them would have to really tank.

[And That]

It would be so baseball not Brewers.

A few points:

-Like Logan alluded to, the Brewers were 20 games under .500 on 9/3/13, and couldn't even manage a top 10 pick out of it. There is recent history.

-I'm guessing the number of teams to play <.250 WP% baseball in the first month who went on to not pick in the top third of the first round (as in my hypothetical) is pretty small.

-Most franchises have won a World Series. The Brewers have not, making the frustration level of many fans higher than fans of teams that have won titles, especially recently.

-Maybe even more frustratingly, the Brewers have been neither good nor terrible for the majority of their existence. Case in point, the team has had the #1 draft pick exactly once in franchise history, and has won even fewer World Series titles. They haven't even picked in the top 10 in almost 10 years. And in that time frame, the best we got was kinda/sorta close to the World Series in 2011.

-Four playoff appearances and two top two picks in 47 years. One #1 pick and no World Series titles. I think it's perfectly rational to not expect success, nor to expect abject failure. How many other franchises can meet this level of not-quite middle of the roadness?

[LouisEly]

-Most franchises have won a World Series. The Brewers have not, making the frustration level of many fans higher than fans of teams that have won titles, especially recently.

Yes, but the Cubs haven't even been to the World Series in my 67-year-old father's lifetime, and that makes me smile. Hell, the Cubs couldn't make it to the WS for decades when there were 10 or fewer teams in the NL.

 

Unfortunately I think that lack of revenue sharing & a salary cap have made it a very un-level playing field. In the 19 years since the 1994 strike that canceled the WS, only nine different teams have won the WS. Many of the "most franchises" that have won a WS did it more than 20 years ago. Only twice in the last 19 years has the winner of the WS not been among the top 13 teams in payroll, and only five of the last 19 winners have not been in the top 10 in payroll. Only FLA in 2003 and LAA in 2002 had a payroll that wasn't in the top 13 (and LAA was 16th). When ARI and the first time that FLA won the WS, they each were 8th in payroll.

 

Having the highest payroll doesn't correlate with winning, but having a top 10 payroll sure as heck does.

[brewcrewdue80]

This is the Reds starting 4 currently: Anthony DeSclafani as their Ace(Respectable 3.84ERA), Raisel Iglesias #2 at rookie 3.93ERA, Keyvius Sampson #3 at 5.55ERA, John Lamb #4 at 6.06ERA and David Holberg #5 at 7.62ERA.

 

DeSclafani: 143IP

Iglesias: 73.1IP

Sampson:24.1IP

Lamb:16.1IP

Holmberg: 28.1IP

 

This Season's totals for that staff. TANK MODE. Worst team in baseball and it's not even close. Doubt they'd win 50games over the entire season if that was the Opening day Rotation with whomever they have to replace that's even worse. Reds #1 Pick unless the Brewers can forfeit all games vs the Reds starting today.

Philly is a no brainer #2.

3-6 will be between Milw/Mia/Atl/Colo Sadly though seeing as Milw now has about 7wins if not 8 locked in vs the Reds that's just too many cancelling out that hopeful .500 play between the 3 NL East teams to keep them up in wins.

[MrTPlush]

You seem very confident the Brewers can dominate the Reds...I am not so sure we will do so.

[LouisEly]

I was thinking the same thing as brewcrewdue80 - despite their recent struggles, I'll take Nelson, Jungmann, Garza, Peralta, and a random 5th starter from the minors over Cincy's five.

 

And even if they don't, Cincy has a brutal schedule.

[brewcrewdue80]

You seem very confident the Brewers can dominate the Reds...I am not so sure we will do so.

 

Yeah. I'm guessing the Brewers are about to average 8.5runs per game vs the Reds down the stretch...A lot like how they scored at will vs the Phillies.

 

Also Pitching Matchups. Reds Ace not pitching in either the first two series should projection hold. Iglesias, Sampson, Lamb and Sampson, Lamb and Holmberg.

[LouisEly]

Atlanta is 1-9 in their last 10 games, and now the Brewers have one more win than ATL. "Up" to sixth position now. A's two wins ahead, BOS and DET five wins ahead, so it will be difficult to be picking worse than 7th.

[paul253]

It seems like this happens every friggin year. It's so frustrating. We sit through a terrible terrible season with a high draft pick as our only solace only to see that disappear as well because the Brewers insist on playing their regulars everyday. I'd love to see Jason Rogers playing three out of four games from here on out, as well as Braun and Lucroy sitting out at least twice a week. I'd also like to see Knebel and/or Jeffress close games the rest of the year to see how they handle it.

[reillymcshane]

It seems like this happens every friggin year. It's so frustrating. We sit through a terrible terrible season with a high draft pick as our only solace only to see that disappear as well because the Brewers insist on playing their regulars everyday. I'd love to see Jason Rogers playing three out of four games from here on out, as well as Braun and Lucroy sitting out at least twice a week. I'd also like to see Knebel and/or Jeffress close games the rest of the year to see how they handle it.

I told my wife last Friday, "Now's the time when the Crew goes on a tear and win 20 of the next 30 games."

 

3-1 since then!

[JohnBriggs12]

It seems like this happens every friggin year. It's so frustrating. We sit through a terrible terrible season with a high draft pick as our only solace only to see that disappear as well because the Brewers insist on playing their regulars everyday. I'd love to see Jason Rogers playing three out of four games from here on out, as well as Braun and Lucroy sitting out at least twice a week. I'd also like to see Knebel and/or Jeffress close games the rest of the year to see how they handle it.

 

I'd like to see Perez playing everyday, and gasp, Gennett getting another start against a LHP (he had 2 in April all season). Counsell knows that managers own their records and making excuses like we were rebuilding and my bosses wanted to look at and develop young players doesn't fly when interviewing for that next job. Ask Dale Sveum.

 

That being said, it's unlikely they'll slip lower than the 6th or 7th pick. Remaining schedule is a tough and Garza's still in the rotation.

[paul253]

My prediction is the 7th pick. Not bad but still disappointing considering they've been in last place almost the entire year.

[pogokat]

I don't think this team can rattle off many wins---there are some terrible players on the field every night. A couple years ago, when they had the great September, they had some legitimate talent. Not so this year my friends, not so. Also, Lind and Braun will definitely rest some down the stretch, and so will Luc, so I have a really hard time seeing this team suddenly winning a bunch of games.

[LouisEly]

I don't think this team can rattle off many wins---there are some terrible players on the field every night. A couple years ago, when they had the great September, they had some legitimate talent. Not so this year my friends, not so. Also, Lind and Braun will definitely rest some down the stretch, and so will Luc, so I have a really hard time seeing this team suddenly winning a bunch of games.

I don't agree with this assessment. Among those with at least 300 PAs:

 

Braun is 7th (of 32) in OPS

Davis is 9th (of 26)

Lucroy is 12th (of 25, even with his horrible start)

Lind is 8th (of 27)

 

Gennett is 19th of 31 and Segura 24th of 31, both below average but not terrible. The only position that I would consider "terrible" would be 3B (Herrera/Perez would be about last) and maybe SS (but I think Segura has above-average defense). Then you have Santana, who certainly is talented.

 

As for pitching, you have Nelson, Jungmann, and Peralta who certainly are talented and nowhere near terrible. Garza is having a terrible season, for sure. But the bullpen is stellar - MIL has the 3rd highest save % among all 30 teams. K-Rod is one of the best in the game, as are Smith and Jeffress, and Thornburg and Knebel have been solid. Some 7th/8th relievers have been terrible (Guilmet, Wooten, Kintzler, Broxton, Goforth), but all except Goforth are gone. Jimenez has done his job so far; in a very small sample he hasn't been terrible. But almost every team has a bad 5th starter and 7th/8th bullpen guys.

 

"Terrible" - except for 3B, Garza, and Goforth - I just don't see.

[paul253]

And Craig counsel is managing for a job. He's not going to rest Lind Lucroy or Braun unless he's told to. I fully expect to see them in the lineup every day until maybe the last week of the season. Every win counts......apparently.

[Roderick]

They have a better chance at 1 than 9. It will be a very pathetic September.

 

Well we are solidly in 7th place now, but it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to see 2 of Boston (3 back), Detroit (3), Seattle (4.5), White Sox (4.5) fall apart and the Brewers end up picking 9th.

[MrTPlush]

MLB teams don't tank or attempt to lose games. The Brewers won't do it and it will never happen. Right or wrong that is how it is. Counsell is not playing for his job right now they are just doing what any normal MLB team does...try to win.

[paul253]

Every team tries to win but after a certain point for some teams they realize playing for the future is more important. And while Brewers are playing for the future in some respects they are still playing for the present in others, which I think is dumb. Things I would like to see done:

 

- limit Jungmann Nelson Peralta and any other young starter to five innings. With expanded rosters and AAA team also going nowhere they should have plenty of bullpen arms to cover the innings.

 

- play Jason Rogers every day. I think it would be wise to get him experience to see if he can cut it because he's the closest thing to and in house option we have at first base. I believe Lind should be traded in the offseason and Rogers could be your every day first basemen.

 

- sit Lucroy and Braun at least three days a week each. why even risk serious injury with absolutely nothing to play for? What harm does letting Makdonado and Pederson/Schafer play do? You might lose a game? Oh no. It's not like We haven't been seeing that happen all year long.

 

-let Jeffress and/or Smith close games. KRod is another guy who I think should be moved in the offseason. So let someone else get a taste of closing just in case he's needed next season.

 

All of these things, i think, would be more beneficial to the future. Who cares if they cost us a game or two this year?

[MrTPlush]

Every team tries to win but after a certain point for some teams they realize playing for the future is more important. And while Brewers are playing for the future in some respects they are still playing for the present in others, which I think is dumb. Things I would like to see done:

 

- limit Jungmann Nelson Peralta and any other young starter to five innings. With expanded rosters and AAA team also going nowhere they should have plenty of bullpen arms to cover the innings.

 

These pitchers need to build innings...and honestly this is extremely minimal regardless.

 

- play Jason Rogers every day. I think it would be wise to get him experience to see if he can cut it because he's the closest thing to and in house option we have at first base. I believe Lind should be traded in the offseason and Rogers could be your every day first basemen.

 

Rogers can only play 1B...Lind plays there.

 

- sit Lucroy and Braun at least three days a week each. why even risk serious injury with absolutely nothing to play for? What harm does letting Makdonado and Pederson/Schafer play do? You might lose a game? Oh no. It's not like We haven't been seeing that happen all year long.

 

Not happening...this isn't the NBA

 

-let Jeffress and/or Smith close games. KRod is another guy who I think should be moved in the offseason. So let someone else get a taste of closing just in case he's needed next season.

 

No way this happens. That would just look bad on the organization and most likely would make no difference in a short span of time.

 

All of these things, i think, would be more beneficial to the future. Who cares if they cost us a game or two this year?

 

I totally get what you are trying to say, but what I am getting at is these are just things no MLB team would do. It just isn't apart of the game.

 

The only thing I really think they could do is maybe give 3B to someone outside of Herrera...maybe Dominguez or maybe if they really wanted to Olt. Maybe you sit some star guys 1-2 games a week, but 3 may be a bit much. Other than that they are really just doing what any other MLB team would likely do.