We're Number Five! We're Number Five! - The 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I guess Law said were down to Ray, Perez, or Lowe. Take that for what you will. Its Keith Law.

That's exciting!

[trwi7]

The problem with that 20/20 type of OF in Ray is Milwaukee has Phillips, Trent Clark, Demi Orimoloye, and potentially Rymer Liriano and Monte Harrison that mold in near that 20/20.

 

Clark is in A ball, Orimoloye is in rookie ball, Liriano was picked up off the waiver wire, Harrison is struggling badly in A ball. These players should not get in the way of us taking Ray. Would it be an exciting pick given where we're picking and what will likely be on the board? Probably not but saying we have guys who are in rookie ball and struggling in A ball or picked up off the waiver wire who could do that isn't really a reason not to take a player.

 

I mean, we shouldn't take Delvin Perez because of Arcia and Villar using that logic.

[brewcrewdue80]

The problem with that 20/20 type of OF in Ray is Milwaukee has Phillips, Trent Clark, Demi Orimoloye, and potentially Rymer Liriano and Monte Harrison that mold in near that 20/20.

 

Clark is in A ball, Orimoloye is in rookie ball, Liriano was picked up off the waiver wire, Harrison is struggling badly in A ball. These players should not get in the way of us taking Ray. Would it be an exciting pick given where we're picking and what will likely be on the board? Probably not but saying we have guys who are in rookie ball and struggling in A ball or picked up off the waiver wire who could do that isn't really a reason not to take a player.

 

I mean, we shouldn't take Delvin Perez because of Arcia and Villar using that logic.

 

Except the difference is Ray is either turning 21 or is 21. Putting his bat right in the mix on Clark, ahead of the others. And Perez is still 17 come draft day. That's 4years-Sept/2019 the earliest one would expect Perez to reach ML. Plus Perez is premium position at SS, could be Super Utility. Villars team control will be up the next year? And that's if Milwaukee hasn't traded him away.

Ray doesn't bring enough to the table to add to Milws minors on an area that's filled with prospects on the same time line as him.

I'd be different if I thought he was BPA. A Ryan Braun appearance. But he's just reading a future Solid ML OF. Not Perennial AllStar. Harrison is still younger, Demi O. I don't get why he's not playing already. Deserves more to be in Brevard playing. Along with Clark, those three still have a higher ceiling if they figure it out.

I'm just sure we'll regret taking him over one of the next 3picks more than likely than selecting anyone else and not selecting him.

[MrTPlush]

Harrison- I hope he can just make it to the major leagues. That guy has struggled badly. Like really bad. He is young, but he has not shown much promise. Calling him anything at this point is wishful thinking.

 

Orimoloye-He is way off and very raw. Not a guy I would pencil in as a part of the future yet.

 

Clark-Probably the best of the bunch. He isn't anything amazing though.

 

Point being none of these guys are a sure thing or better than Corey Ray. Also why can't Corey Ray be an All Star? He sure has the potential and tools to be one. Has as good of a chance than any of these guys. We have no OF spots locked up right now for the future. Braun should be traded, Phillips has struggled this year, and Santana hasn't proved to be more than average yet(OK offense with horrid defense). Regardless in 4 years if we have a roadblock Santana could easily be traded for something else.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, I'd have no problem with Ray. Just take BPA is all I ask, whatever the board says. I'll trust this scouting team until I see a reason not to.

[MrTPlush]

Yeah, I'd have no problem with Ray. Just take BPA is all I ask, whatever the board says. I'll trust this scouting team until I see a reason not to.

 

Which in my opinion should take into consideration risk. Pint/Groome have the best potential in the draft, but each has a ton of risk. Usually high school players have a lot more risk than college guys too.

 

You have to balance out each one and pick your risks wisely. Everyone says we HAVE to get his elite player at #5, but what we need even more is to not have a player totally flop. Jason Groome is great until he turns into Mark Rogers.

 

Point being we don't have to take a big risk at #5. That isn't the only spot to find good players. There are other avenues and that's Stearns job to figure out. Not saying I support Ray over someone like Groome, but if we go Ray I am sure it is apart of a bigger picture/plan.

[Eye Black]

In a response I got from Ellis, all his sources have lead him to believe Rutherford to Brewers is a sure thing regardless who is on the board still. My comment to him (that he responded to was) I have a tough seeing the Brewers pass on Groome at #5 if he falls, however, I could see them go Rutherford over Pint, Perez, Moniak.

LINK: Audio version of Jeff Ellis and Taylor Blake Ward explaining on their podcast why they believe Blake Rutherford is going to Brewers (podcast link also available via this TWEET). The Rutherford to the Brewers discussion begins at the 1 hour and 1 minute mark (1:01:00). Also worth noting that Ellis believes Rutherford is the best player available in this year's draft which is an opinion that does not appear to be shared by many others currently.

 

For those interested in listening to the entire podcast, earlier in the show they mention having information that Delvin Perez's stock is currently dropping.

[SRB]

Are those the same guys who said Delvin Perez to Milwaukee was an absolute lock not much more than a week ago?

 

I think the answer is: the Brewers are looking at a lot of players, and nobody knows.

 

(I like everything I've read about Rutherford though, sounds like he would be a great pick if none of the top-3 pitchers are available or if the Brewers think they are too flawed)

[Eye Black]

Are those the same guys who said Delvin Perez to Milwaukee was an absolute lock not much more than a week ago?

 

I think the answer is: the Brewers are looking at a lot of players, and nobody knows.

 

(I like everything I've read about Rutherford though, sounds like he would be a great pick if none of the top-3 pitchers are available or if the Brewers think they are too flawed)

No, Scout's Ellis and Ward have been saying the Brewers were all over Rutherford for quite some time. The 2080 Baseball guys along with Perfect Game's Bryan Sakowski were the Delvin Perez to the Brewers crowd.

[Eye Black]

Another very interesting podcast LINK (The Felske Files, episode 51). The guest is Baseball America's John Manuel and at the 26:30 mark he discusses why teams are moving on from Jason Groome, and at 32:00 he discusses Blake Rutherford in-depth. At the 34:00 minute mark he mentions that Rutherford, Moniak, and Pint are the only high school players he hears in the top 10 picks currently, and mentions that Groome could fall to #14 "if the Indians deem him signable".

[SRB]

Another very interesting podcast LINK (The Felske Files, episode 51). The guest is Baseball America's John Manuel and at the 26:30 mark he discusses why teams are moving on from Jason Groome, and at 32:00 he discusses Blake Rutherford in-depth. At the 34:00 minute mark he mentions that Rutherford, Moniak, and Pint are the only high school players he hears in the top 10 picks currently, and mentions that Groome could fall to #14 "if the Indians deem him signable".

 

Maybe I'm a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder how much these very public "makeup" concerns are just a way of coercing a high school kid who is demanding too much money (say, slot value...) into breaking down and accepting a few million less than he ostensibly deserves.

[Eye Black]

Well I guess we will know more about how prevelant the concerns are once we see where Groome is actually selected. The talent is undeniable so if he falls outside of the top 5-10 picks than there is probably some legitimacy to the concerns beyond teams trying to gain negotiating leverage. I am quite skeptical that Groome will fall as far as John Manuel suggests is possible, but he went further down the road of explaining specific issues than most have thus far. It is starting to feel like Groome's ceiling and floor are moving towards the extremes (boom or bust). I still lean towards viewing him as a future ace.

[MrTPlush]

He could start to plummet if he gets past #7. At that point the signing bonus starts to get pretty low. It's doubtful he wouldn't sign, but when the bonus starts getting towards $3mil he could just opt to go to college. If he is confident in his skills he could easily go to school and go #1 in a few years. It should be noted he left (IMG?)Academy to go back home to play baseball with his friends. Wouldn't put it past him to go to college for some reason if he isn't happy with where he is drafted.

 

Though even if he goes towards #10 he is probably better off signing.

[ZBTMP]

One thing I've wondered is if a prep pitcher at the top of the draft would tell the Rockies at 1.4 not to draft them even threatening to go to IMG or a JC for a year if they do select them. I realize it would come off very poorly and self-absorbed, and teams want to see some appreciation and humility from prospects. But even Kershaw and Bumgarner have ERAs over 4 for their careers in Coors, its just not a good place for the longterm good of your career.

[Jenkins5]

He could start to plummet if he gets past #7. At that point the signing bonus starts to get pretty low. It's doubtful he wouldn't sign, but when the bonus starts getting towards $3mil he could just opt to go to college. If he is confident in his skills he could easily go to school and go #1 in a few years. It should be noted he left (IMG?)Academy to go back home to play baseball with his friends. Wouldn't put it past him to go to college for some reason if he isn't happy with where he is drafted.

 

Though even if he goes towards #10 he is probably better off signing.

 

Groome has done an awful job leveraging. He has said in multiple interviews he doesn't like school, doesn't want to play in college, & he wants to start his pro career. He's incredibly signable.

[Eye Black]

I listened to another radio appearance from John Manuel recorded yesterday (with an Atlanta radio station) and he mentioned he expects Groome to go in the top ten with picks #3, #4, #6, and #8 being the most likely. So much for the idea of sliding outside the top ten picks he mentioned previously. I do think the Padres at #8 are Groome's floor, they have a lot of financial resources in this draft and appear to be heavily weighting upside. Unless they have some other under-slot deal worked out already it seems like they would jump at Groome.

[brewmann04]

Groome has issues like I said being a teenager who is getting courted as a potential #1 Pick.

[splitterpfj]

This sums it up .... just three days away, this was published today, addressing the team with the first pick in the draft:

 

The Phillies have narrowed their choices to these seven players: Barnegat (N.J.) High School left-hander Jason Groome, Mercer University outfielder Kyle Lewis, La Costa Canyon (Calif.) High School outfielder Mickey Moniak, Puk, Louisville outfielder Corey Ray, Chaminade (Calif.) College Prep outfielder Blake Rutherford and Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel.[/i]

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/182030812/phillies-could-go-hitter-with-no-1-pick

 

This is why we're all right about who the Brewers should take, and none of us are right about who the Brewers should take. Everywhere you look, there are nine guys listed in the top ten, with one wildcard. I don't think I've ever seen that before, the industry is trying to sell us the top nine guys, concrete, good to go, but with no separation, they're basically all in a pile.

 

Alphabetically, "Blue Horseshoe Loves..." (please tell me someone gets the reference):

 

Groome

Lewis

Moniak

Perez

Pint

Puk

Ray

Rutherford

Senzel

 

The tenth guy interchanges a lot, but those nine are in the top ten over and over again.

 

I'll say the wildcard is taken at pick nine, with the White Sox following by taking the best college player still on their board, whether he's one of those nine, or not.

[Jose Cardenal1]

"Blue Horseshoe Loves..." (please tell me someone gets the reference).

[/b]

 

"This is the kid, calls me 59 days in a row, wants to be a player. There ought to be a picture of you in the dictionary under persistence kid."

 

 

As for me, I was never in love with any of the top guys, partly because nobody can sort them out. Also the longer the lead up to the draft the more time to look at the warts which is natural and something I imagine is hard for people who actually get paid to evaluate players.

 

That is why I would lean towards picking a guy not currently in the top 10 (Collins, Lowe, Wentz, Garrett) and save some money for a tough sign or two from rds 2-4.

 

In any event the only guys I would complain about are Ray & Senzel because the ceilings are not high enough and Perez because his floor is too low.

[paul253]

I'm starting to get a bad feeling about this draft. I'm feeling as though we're going to wind up with an OF or an under slot guy when I think we need a high end pitcher. I believe Puk Pint or Groome will be there and I believe we should take whichever one is. With a better than expected team so far this season I don't think we can count on getting a high enough draft pick next year to get a front end starting prospect. This may be our best shot.

[splitterpfj]

Paul, drafting pitching will always be the curse of the Scouting Director - it's the fastest way to get rich, and the fastest way to get fired.

 

There's no doubt, the Brewers would be well-served to take one of the top three arms in this draft, but their system surely doesn't have, "too much" of anything. What's wrong with an outfielder, if they truly think he'll be a star?

 

I do think one of those pitchers will last to their pick, and possibly two of them, with only Puk seemingly sure to go ahead of Milwaukee. I won't mind one bit if the team takes one of those pitchers, but I also wouldn't argue with a guy who may be a middle of the order hitter in the future.

 

My favorite hitter, not all-around player but strictly hitter, in the Brewers' system right now is Trent Clark. I think if Clark reaches his ceiling, he chases 200 hits a year, with plenty of extra base hits. The problem there is, he's still years away, and he could also turn out to be a .285 hitter, with 15 homers.

 

Get me either a pitcher or a hitter who truly pans out, and Jules and Vincent are happy.

[wichmae]

Yeah I agree. Go with who you think will be the best prospect and figure it out later. Trades can always happen and eventually things get straightened out. The issue I would have with us taking a HS pitcher is that we have never really developed a pitcher. There is no track record there. Honestly I trust Stearns and Montgomery to get this right. Whomever we take Ill get behind.

[DR28]

Think Lewis will be available at #5?

 

I'm really starting to grow on Collins or Lowe at #5... Either would give us a impact bat.

[brewcrewdue80]

I really believe Lowe will go to Atlanta at #3. Because he's coming from a GA HS. He has helium building to be a top 12 pick and Atl's usual GA picks over the last few years just makes sense. They'll then use the money they save on the 40/44picks or as well on their 77/80 picks. Since you're not in agreement on a top 10 draftboard they just get the upside talent such as a Joey Wentz who falls due to signability and grab 4 guys who all fall in draft boards top 25-35 in a draft that lacks true star power to gamble on.

 

What this means for Milwaukee is a certainty that 1 of Groome, Pint, and Perez will be there at #5. Looking forward to Thursday! Can't wait on the Brewers pick.

[brewmann04]

An Impact arm would be very welcomed.