We're Number Five! We're Number Five! - The 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[Jenkins5]

In a response I got from Ellis, all his sources have lead him to believe Rutherford to Brewers is a sure thing regardless who is on the board still. My comment to him (that he responded to was) I have a tough seeing the Brewers pass on Groome at #5 if he falls, however, I could see them go Rutherford over Pint, Perez, Moniak.

[DR28]

In a response I got from Ellis, all his sources have lead him to believe Rutherford to Brewers is a sure thing regardless who is on the board still. My comment to him (that he responded to was) I have a tough seeing the Brewers pass on Groome at #5 if he falls, however, I could see them go Rutherford over Pint, Perez, Moniak.

 

I would be good with Blake if Groome is already gone.

 

Otherwise if Groome is still on the board... I would take Groome over anyone.

[Jenkins5]

In a response I got from Ellis, all his sources have lead him to believe Rutherford to Brewers is a sure thing regardless who is on the board still. My comment to him (that he responded to was) I have a tough seeing the Brewers pass on Groome at #5 if he falls, however, I could see them go Rutherford over Pint, Perez, Moniak.

 

I would be good with Blake if Groome is already gone.

 

Otherwise if Groome is still on the board... I would take Groome over anyone.

 

Same, my board is:

 

1. Groome

 

 

2a Perez

2b Pint

2c Rutherford

2d Moniak

 

3a Lewis

3b Puk

 

4a Senzel

4b Garrett

4c Ray

4d Manning

4e Collins

4f Lowe

[narwhalattack]

In a response I got from Ellis, all his sources have lead him to believe Rutherford to Brewers is a sure thing regardless who is on the board still. My comment to him (that he responded to was) I have a tough seeing the Brewers pass on Groome at #5 if he falls, however, I could see them go Rutherford over Pint, Perez, Moniak.

 

I'm pretty skeptical whenever someone claims stuff like this. The Brewers have been generally very good at keeping draft strategies to themselves.

[MrTPlush]

Then I hope Rutherford is picked before us. No offense to him, but he profiles as an above average corner outfielder. At #5 they should take a player with superstar potential. Groome, Pint, and Perez should all be before him. Perez could also save them some money if that is what they are wanting.

 

Picking Rutherford just seems like a move to go way underslot and sacrificing the opportunity to get an elite prospect.

[DR28]

I'm really liking to Correa comparsion for Perez... But does Perez have the power and frame to move to 3B?

 

Since we'll have Arcia roaming SS for years to come.

 

I would be good with Groome or Perez.

[Austin Tatious]

I asked a similar question about Perez. From what I've seen, Perez is a middle infielder and not a third baseman. He's a twitchy athlete. There are very significant questions about Perez's ability to ever hit.

 

There is no comparison with Correa other than they are both athletes at short. Correa is a couple of orders of magnitude better. Perez lacks the frame, strength, and hit toolbox that a kid like Correa has.

[CheezWizHed]

Since we'll have Arcia roaming SS for years to come.

 

We hope, but the future promised to no one. Never draft based on we have our we need. Trades can fix that.

[MrTPlush]

First thought, Arcia could easily end up being Jean Segura offensively. He would still be a starter due to his glove, but not anything special.

 

That being said if you draft Perez I am guessing he would project as the 2B with Arcia still at SS some day. Not like a Carlos Correa at 2B is something bad. Would still be a superstar.

[paul253]

The only way I'll be ok with Rutherford is if Puk, Perez, Groome and Perez are all gone. And even then I'd prefer Senzel and Lewis. In other words I really hope he's not our pick.

[wichmae]

I guess Law said were down to Ray, Perez, or Lowe. Take that for what you will. Its Keith Law.

[UMBrewer]

Is anyone at all excited for Braxton Garrett at #5?

 

He has pretty dang good stuff, is polished, has a ceiling of a #2 starting pitcher, and has a much higher floor than guys like Groome or Pint have.

 

I am not impressed with Perez at all. I wonder if he will ever hit. And the other name associated with the Brewers at five, Corey Ray, profiles, for me, as an every day regular, average player for a ceiling.

 

I just think they have to take an arm here.

[narwhalattack]

Is anyone at all excited for Braxton Garrett at #5?

 

He has pretty dang good stuff, is polished, has a ceiling of a #2 starting pitcher, and has a much higher floor than guys like Groome or Pint have.

 

I am not impressed with Perez at all. I wonder if he will ever hit. And the other name associated with the Brewers at five, Corey Ray, profiles, for me, as an every day regular, average player for a ceiling.

 

I just think they have to take an arm here.

 

Groome and Pint have higher ceilings and I'm not as enamored with floor.

[Jenkins5]

Like Garrett a lot, he has forced his way into a top 10-15 lock. If he can bump from 90-93 to 92-95 as his body matures.... With his skill set & natural stuff on the mound, he could be a great front line guy! I still go Groome first since he already has the FB & one of the deadliest curveballs in a long time for a prep pitcher. Garrett I think is more of the sure thing to contribute in the MLB even if it is just a back end guy.

 

Ray just doesn't have the upside of the other guys we can take. We aren't in a position to play it safe. We need game changing talent that can transcend. Groome, Pint, Perez, Moniak all have a or multiple game breaking tools. Rutherford is a guy many scouts believe is in same boat. Even Lowe has the power tool & defensive tool (his arm is unreal at 3rd) to be a stud.

[MrTPlush]

I feel Corey Ray might be a bit underrated by fans. He has the power and speed to be really special if he can play centerfield. I know some scouts have questioned that, but I don't think it is a far fetched possibility. Heck even if he ends up at a corner spot he still has good upside.

 

At the very least I think he projects higher than an average everyday player. Last time I checked 20/20 players are almost non existent. Not to mention Corey Ray has the potential to do better than 20 in both categories.

 

Now I wouldn't pick Corey Ray over a Groome/Pint, but I don't think he is as bad as we are making him out to be. He has All Star potential in my mind.

[brewcrewdue80]

I feel Corey Ray might be a bit underrated by fans. He has the power and speed to be really special if he can play centerfield. I know some scouts have questioned that, but I don't think it is a far fetched possibility. Heck even if he ends up at a corner spot he still has good upside.

 

At the very least I think he projects higher than an average everyday player. Last time I checked 20/20 players are almost non existent. Not to mention Corey Ray has the potential to do better than 20 in both categories.

 

Now I wouldn't pick Corey Ray over a Groome/Pint, but I don't think he is as bad as we are making him out to be. He has All Star potential in my mind.

 

The problem with that 20/20 type of OF in Ray is Milwaukee has Phillips, Trent Clark, Demi Orimoloye, and potentially Rymer Liriano and Monte Harrison that mold in near that 20/20. Maybe it'd be 15/25 or 25/15 but if 20/20 makes one excited viewing that there's a handful with that kind of excitement to develop. What does he really add to the Brewers Organization? Now say he was a 30HR or 30+SB guy with .300+BA, one could be okay with it. You can only play 3 OFs a game. You need 5 SPs, 3 of them to be good to give your team playoff hopes. 4 and 5 just adds to the likelihood.

 

And if we switch gears and say well how about the defense? I don't read a Jason Hayward type of Defense projection. Just that he has the arm to play all 3. Another negative, personally is he's listed 5' 11". Would be the only one of that group of 5 under 6'. I'm telling you, height results in higher ceilings. 6' 3"-6'6" especially seems to be a magic spot in that regard. 6'7"+ has the awkward balance issues seem to begin.

 

Delvin Perez is 6'3" currently. He could grow still. Milwaukee needs to continue with high ceiling choices and not solid floor/ceiling settles. They will always be behind in MLB payrolls. You hit on a few of these youngest with high ceilings together in a period this team can make a run for multiple seasons at a division title. Don't? well, bad results will result in high picks to keep churning on the upside choices. You trade away the ML pieces in the time you're building such an event.

[Never Outhustled]

I feel Corey Ray might be a bit underrated by fans. He has the power and speed to be really special if he can play centerfield. I know some scouts have questioned that, but I don't think it is a far fetched possibility. Heck even if he ends up at a corner spot he still has good upside.

 

At the very least I think he projects higher than an average everyday player. Last time I checked 20/20 players are almost non existent. Not to mention Corey Ray has the potential to do better than 20 in both categories.

 

Now I wouldn't pick Corey Ray over a Groome/Pint, but I don't think he is as bad as we are making him out to be. He has All Star potential in my mind.

 

The problem with that 20/20 type of OF in Ray is Milwaukee has Phillips, Trent Clark, Demi Orimoloye, and potentially Rymer Liriano and Monte Harrison that mold in near that 20/20. Maybe it'd be 15/25 or 25/15 but if 20/20 makes one excited viewing that there's a handful with that kind of excitement to develop. What does he really add to the Brewers Organization? Now say he was a 30HR or 30+SB guy with .300+BA, one could be okay with it. You can only play 3 OFs a game. You need 5 SPs, 3 of them to be good to give your team playoff hopes. 4 and 5 just adds to the likelihood.

 

And if we switch gears and say well how about the defense? I don't read a Jason Hayward type of Defense projection. Just that he has the arm to play all 3. Another negative, personally is he's listed 5' 11". Would be the only one of that group of 5 under 6'. I'm telling you, height results in higher ceilings. 6' 3"-6'6" especially seems to be a magic spot in that regard. 6'7"+ has the awkward balance issues seem to begin.

 

Delvin Perez is 6'3" currently. He could grow still. Milwaukee needs to continue with high ceiling choices and not solid floor/ceiling settles. They will always be behind in MLB payrolls. You hit on a few of these youngest with high ceilings together in a period this team can make a run for multiple seasons at a division title. Don't? well, bad results will result in high picks to keep churning on the upside choices. You trade away the ML pieces in the time you're building such an event.

 

We're not looking for 20/20 guys, we're looking for high OPS performers. We have very few OFs who fit that description, but Ray doesn't either.

 

Ray is simply not a great hitter, and hasn't progressed much in his 3 years of college ball, so there's no reason to belive he'll suddenly make a big jump with the bat.

 

Zack Collins, Kyle Lewis, and Will Craig are the 3 best bats available. Craig will be under-drafted because he's likely a 1B only. Collins might be too.

 

Senzel is a ways behind those bats, and is a Boras client, so he's not on my Brewers list.

[Never Outhustled]

I asked a similar question about Perez. From what I've seen, Perez is a middle infielder and not a third baseman. He's a twitchy athlete. There are very significant questions about Perez's ability to ever hit.

 

There is no comparison with Correa other than they are both athletes at short. Correa is a couple of orders of magnitude better. Perez lacks the frame, strength, and hit toolbox that a kid like Correa has.

 

 

Well said Austin Tatious. Perez has been compared to Correa way too much simply because theyre both from PR. Perez is way too raw with the bat to go top 5 in this draft.

[Never Outhustled]

I wondered about the Zack Collins possibility the other day. It could be somewhat similar to when the Cubs blindsided everyone two years ago by taking Kyle Schwarber at the #4 overall selection and then signing him for $1.5 million less than slot value. They were able to use the pool savings to sign some pitchers (including Dylan Cease) for significantly overslot.

 

In this draft which has some good high school players (especially arms) further down the draft board I wonder if that is something the Brewers are considering trying to emulate. One thing that could be tricky however is it seems like there are enough teams that are going to be playing with extra pool money (i.e. Atlanta, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, San Diego) that it may make counting on overslot signings a risky proposition. In a sense they may be able to keep each other somewhat honest because they all have extra money to allocate as needed on an elite player that falls down the board.

 

Even without the savings Collins could be a great selection. He compares perfectly with Schwarber (maybe even a little better as he plays in a better conference with slightly better production ).

 

Who wouldn't want a middle of the order hitter? The Brewers system is devoid of a single impact bat. Teams have been extremely successful picking top collegiate hitters since the change in bats allowed at that level. Collins is a low risk selection with All-Star upside because of his bat.

[paul253]

If Collins could stay at catcher id be all for it but he's another all hit no defense player who you'd likely have to stick in RF or First Base and get below average defense. It's players like him, and Schwarber, that get me so irritated that MLB doesn't fix the DH issue. It's BS that an NL team has to find somewhere for those guys, and guys like Khris Davis and Prince Firlder, to play while AL teams can just DH them.

[MrTPlush]

How do we know the Brewers are looking for OPS performers? Knowing their scouting director and rumors they are looking for a toolsy guy. Corey Ray is probably the best 5 tool player in the draft. Not to mention he has an OPS in the high .900s. Corey Ray has no obvious weakness and that will fair him well come draft day. As said before he may not have a superstar ceiling, but there is plenty of high upside with a high floor.

 

It is easy to say go with the guy with superstar talent until that guy falls flat on his face and we never see him take the field. Countless times teams draft that superstar guy with lots of risk and he never even makes the MLB roster in his career.

 

Now as I said before I probably wouldn't draft Corey Ray in any scenario. I would rather nab a bigger risk higher ceiling player. However, for me it easy to see why a team might like Corey Ray and why I wouldn't immediately hate the pick.

[Never Outhustled]

How do we know the Brewers are looking for OPS performers? Knowing their scouting director and rumors they are looking for a toolsy guy. Corey Ray is probably the best 5 tool player in the draft. Not to mention he has an OPS in the high .900s. Corey Ray has no obvious weakness and that will fair him well come draft day.

 

High 900's is low compared to the top guys. It's over 300 points lower than Craig.

 

Most recent news has Ray dropping as draft day approaches. Appropriate for him, as he's just not in the same class as the top guys.

 

How do we know the Brewers want OPS performers? I'm assuming they want good players. The greatest part off a players value is tied to their bat.

[Austin Tatious]

Granted, I'm not personally scouting these guys. So, there's that. But I'm reading and listening to anything I can get my hands on about the draft. And I'd take Collins over Ray without a second thought, and possibly Collns over Perez.

 

When Schwarber was coming into the draft, I was on this site hoping for him. In that case, I was surprised the Cubs took him 4th as there weren't many projections of him way up there. I had actually seen Schwarber play (on TV) and loved his hit tool box. Used the whole field, was strong, smart hitter with average and power. We had threads on here where I remember mentioning Schwarber. I bring this up because the reports I'm hearing is that Collins can hit like that. Even if he's a first baseman, if he can hit like that, it would fill a tremendous need.

[MrTPlush]

And I have heard Ray is going up draft boards. So back to square one of having no idea what is actually true.

[splitterpfj]

My exchange with Jonathan Mayo ...

 

@JonathanMayo @MLBDraft @MLBPipeline Is Corey Ray a, "safe pick" who will play in the big leagues, or does he have true MLB star potential?"\

 

 

Jonathan MayoVerified account

‏@JonathanMayo

@bballintheblood I think he has impact player potential

 

If Ray is, "falling", it's into the 6-10 range, instead of possibly top five.

 

This draft has several players who have been projected all over the top ten, and nothing close to, "consensus." I think it's a great year to be picking in the top ten, more so than a great year to have the first pick.