We're Number Five! We're Number Five! - The 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[paul253]

curious what others top five lists look like

 

I'd say for me its:

1) Groome

2) Pint

3) Puk

4) Perez

5) Senzel

 

I just can't get excited over another outfielder and an electric arm like Groome or Pint would bring another exciting pitching prospect to follow.

[SRB]

#1 on my draft board is Delvin Perez, because I would prefer to get an underslot deal and spend more later in the draft. Unfortunately for us in the year we are picking #5, by all accounts this draft class is deep rather than stacked at the top. None of the top prospects are without flaws (I wouldn't even be surprised if Perez is in play at 1-1 for Philadelphia).

[ZBTMP]

Yikes, this article puts top prep arms in perspective...

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-prep-arms-risky/#FdtEBTPAjuKzei92.97

 

Around 10 really impact HS arms since 2000 taken in the top 20 picks.

 

I think a big part of it is developing which the Crew has not been good at, but we'll see if Stearns can turn that around and if he will take one of the top prep arms if available.

7 of 15 HS pitchers since 2010 taken in the top 20 have had TJ surgery so health is a major issue as well....

 

 

Great post and list. It's a very telling list. You have a ton of the top pitchers in baseball coming out of high school on that list: Bumgarner, Fernandez, Kershaw, Grienke, Hamels, Giolito, Miller et al. There will always be that Mike Fiers 22nd rounder who makes it in the mid-to back of the rotation, but if you want a dominant ace that can win multiple games in a playoff series, drafting a high school ace is the way to go, as this list shows.

 

Its probably not that simple when you figure Price, Harvey, Strasburg, Scherzer, Nola, Cole, and Sale (Verlander, Lincecum, and Weaver have also been "ace" caliber and drafted in the last 12 or so years) were all high 1st round college selections. Puk certainly has that level of upside as well though far from a certainty or finished product.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Not sure I am really enamored with any particular player at this point. So I would lean towards taking Dakota Hudson as a slight under slot (rated #10 by BA and MLB) and take a couple of tough sign guys later.

 

Hudson may not be a sexy pick but looks like he could be a Jimmy Nelson like bulldog starter who could reach the big leagues by 2019.

 

To me a draft of Hudson #1 and then 3 HS Pitchers (where the strength of this draft lies) in rounds 2, 2s, & 3 would be ideal for the Brewers.

[Austin Tatious]

Yikes, this article puts top prep arms in perspective...

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-prep-arms-risky/#FdtEBTPAjuKzei92.97

 

Around 10 really impact HS arms since 2000 taken in the top 20 picks.

 

I think a big part of it is developing which the Crew has not been good at, but we'll see if Stearns can turn that around and if he will take one of the top prep arms if available.

7 of 15 HS pitchers since 2010 taken in the top 20 have had TJ surgery so health is a major issue as well....

 

 

Great post and list. It's a very telling list. You have a ton of the top pitchers in baseball coming out of high school on that list: Bumgarner, Fernandez, Kershaw, Grienke, Hamels, Giolito, Miller et al. There will always be that Mike Fiers 22nd rounder who makes it in the mid-to back of the rotation, but if you want a dominant ace that can win multiple games in a playoff series, drafting a high school ace is the way to go, as this list shows.

 

Its probably not that simple when you figure Price, Harvey, Strasburg, Scherzer, Nola, Cole, and Sale (Verlander, Lincecum, and Weaver have also been "ace" caliber and drafted in the last 12 or so years) were all high 1st round college selections. Puk certainly has that level of upside as well though far from a certainty or finished product.

 

Good point. I'd agree that a stud pitcher with a high pick, whether high school or college, is the way to go. It goes to scouting the individual. Nothing's easy at any position. The numbers bear out you have your best shot at putting a stud pitcher out there with a high draft pick. We can study pitchers after round one and find a very high percentage that bomb out or are not aces. I think Jordy Zimmerman may have been a second rounder but I'm going off memory. Between your list and mine, between high school and college elite pitchers taken with high picks, you see the who's who of top pitchers in baseball. High level talent pitcher with a high draft pick, sooner or later, is almost essential if you follow these studies. You may bomb out with Mark Rogers but it's an investment that needs to be made successfully at some point, if you want a true dominant ace.

[Eye Black]

Interesting that in the most recent MLB Pipeline podcast Jonathan Mayo brings up that the Brewers have held workouts for Georgia outfielder Taylor Trammell and mentioned him as a possibility at #5 in what would be a draft pool savings deal.

 

Mayo also mentions hearing the Brewers linked with Delvin Perez and Josh Lowe. Callis said he has heard many possibilities at #5 with Corey Ray the strongest at the moment.

[And That]

My top five right now would be:

 

1. Groome

2. Pint

3. Perez

4. Rutherford

5. Senzel

 

Due to all the issues the Brewers have had with college arms at the top of the draft, I'm a little preconditioned to be leery of Puk.

 

Considering Montgomery's first draft with the Brewers and Stearn's/Arnold's seeming preference for younger "lottery tickets" in trades, I would be a little surprised to see them go with a college guy at #5. If they go underslot, I think it's more likely they go with a guy like Josh Lowe or Ian Anderson or Braxton Garrett (though I'm not sure how underslot any three of those guys would actually be).

[Austin Tatious]

I don't agree with selling yourself at number 5 with a draft pool savings concept to try to get better players at subsequent slots. You have the fifth overall pick. You earned it. Now capitalize with an elite talent. Our top 30-50 is littered with solid prospects. What's missing is elite talent, particularly pitching. Go get a top 5 talent at 1.5. Don't get a lower talent, pay him less and then at the next pick hope to get a nice prospect.

 

We can't be making those moves now.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Due to all the issues the Brewers have had with college arms at the top of the draft, I'm a little preconditioned to be leery of Puk.

So your saying the Brewers have had better success with HS arms in the 1st rd? Listen I understand the reluctance of a college arm, but some of those bad picks we think about were late 1st rd or Supplemental Rd picks (Arnett, Heckathorn, Fredrickson). Here is a complete list of pitchers drafted in the top 16 picks by the Brewers in the last 20 years:

 

K.Petersen (13) - College - Bust

J.M. Gold (13) - HS - Bust

B.Sheets (10) - College - Great pick

M.Jones (12) - HS - Bust

M.Rogers (5) - HS - Bust

J.Jeffries (16) - HS - Success but in Bullpen not a starter

D.Covey (14) - HS - Never signed

T.Jungman (12) - College - Not good but still has a chance to contribute

J.Bradley (15) - College - Bust (but technically could still make it as reliever)

K.Mederios (12) - HS - Jury still out

 

So, College one great pick out of 4. HS one good pick (and one yet to see) out of 5 or 6 depending on if you count Covey.

 

You can make the argument that the Brewers should never take a P high in the draft based on the past but you cant say that they should only avoid College P's.

[And That]

So, College one great pick out of 4.

I guess I don't see any connection between Ben Sheets, who was picked 17 years ago (!), and the current Brewers' draft process.

 

Also arbitrarily not including Arnett, Heckathorn, and Frederickson doesn't make sense to me. I would consider any first round pick to be at the top of the Brewers' draft. Maybe you don't. Semantics I guess.

 

Here's how I see it, since Zduriencik left in 2006 (also admittedly arbitrary, but it's about 10 years and that seems like a good line of demarcation in my head):

 

Taylor Jungmann - I personally think he stinks, though I guess the jury is still out

Jed Bradley - bust

Eric Arnett - bust

Kyle Heckathorn - bust

Evan Frederickson - bust

 

That's not good.

 

Edit: I also didn't say they should avoid Puk. Just that given recent history, it would make me personally hesitant.

[IndyCrew]

1. Puk

2. Groome

3. Rutherford

4. Pint

5. Perez

[Jose Cardenal1]

You said you were leery on Puk because of the Brewers history with College arms.

 

I used actual history (20 years worth!, wanted a better sample size) to make the point that the Brewers have sucked taking P's whether it was College or HS at the top of the draft. They have been an equal opportunity offender.

 

To compare who to take at 5 this year with who we took at 26, 35, & 47 (Arnett, Fredrickson & Heckathorn) seemed to be a stretch. I suppose a better comparison would be what P's the Brewers have taken in the top 10. That would be Sheets and Rogers.

[And That]

You said you were leery on Puk because of the Brewers history with College arms.

Right, as in a personal feeling on the subject. I'm not saying

 

that they should only avoid College P's

anywhere.

 

And what happened 20 years ago is, to me, irrelevant to recent history. Maybe not to you. And that's fine. Thankfully, we are all free to frame our personal opinions in the manner we choose.

[reillymcshane]

As Milwaukee really could use pitching, and many want us to get a pitcher, and we are discussing our lack of success in drafting pitching, I wanted to see how successful Top 10 draft picks (pitchers only) have fared. I looked at a decade of picks (2000-2009) to do this. I figured we are, mostly, going to know if these guys have been successful or not.

 

I listed the year, the pick’s name, draft spot, if the were picked from high school (HS), and then the bWAR they have accumulated thus far in their career. If they have no number next to them, then they never reached the majors or have a negative WAR.

 

2000

#2 - Adam Johnson

#4 - Mike Stodolka (HS)

#7 - Matt Harrington (HS)

#8 - Matt Wheatland (HS)

#9 - Mark Phillips (HS)

#10 - Joe Torres (HS)

 

2001

#2 - Mark Prior - 16.5

#3 - Dewon Brazelton

#4 - Gavin Floyd (HS) - 16.4

#6 - Josh Karp

#7 - Chris Smith

#8 - John Van Benschoten

#9 - Colt Griffin (HS)

 

2002

#1 - Bryan Bullington

#3 - Chris Gruler (HS)

#4 - Adam Loewen (HS) - 0.3

#5 - Clint Everts (HS)

#6 - Zack Greinke (HS)

#9 - Jeff Francis - 9.3

 

2003

#3 - Kyle Sleeth

#4 - Tim Stauffer - 3.5

#8 - Paul Malholm - 12.1

#9 - John Danks (HS) - 20.9

 

2004

#2 - Justin Verlandet - 44.1

#3 - Phillip Humber - 0.9

#4 - Jeff Niemann - 4.1

#5 - Mark Rogers (HS) - 1.1

#6 - Jeremy Sowers - 1.6

#7 - Homer Bailey (HS) - 7.3

#8 - Wade Townsend

#10 - Thomas Diamond

 

2005

#6 - Ricky Romero - 9.7

#8 - Wade Townsend (2nd time selected in 1st round)

#9 - Mike Palfrey - 5.6

 

2006

#1 - Luke Hochevar - 3.1

#2 - Greg Reynolds

#4 - Brad Lincoln - 0.5

#5 - Brandon Morrow - 8.1

#6 - Andrew Miller - 2.3

#7 - Clayton Kershaw (HS) - 51.5

#10 - Tim Lincecum - 22.7

 

2007

#1 - David Price - 28.8

#4 - Daniel Moskos - 0.2

#6 - Ross Detwiler - 0.6

#8 - Casey Weathers

#9 - Jarrod Parker (HS) - 6.1

#10 - Madison Bumgarner (HS) - 24.5

 

2008

#4 - Brian Matusz - 3.0

#9 - Aaron Crow - 2.4

 

2009

#1 - Stephen Strasburg - 16.1

#5 - Matt Hobgood (HS)

#6 - Zack Wheeler (HS) - 1.8

#7 - Mike Minor - 3.9

#8 - Mike Leake - 12.1

#9 - Jacob Turner (HS)

#10 - Drew Storen - 5.1

 

Some Results

 

- Total # of players - 54 (I only counted Wade Townsend once)

- High School picks - 20

- College picks - 34

- Guys never made the majors (or had a negative bWAR) - 22 (41% completely failed, 59% had positive WAR)

- Guys who had a WAR of less than 5.0 - 36 (67.7% failure rate)

- Guys who produced 10+ WAR - 11 (20.3%)

- Guys who produced 20+ WAR - 6 - (11.1%)

- HS guys who produced 5.0+ WAR - 6 (30.0%)

- College guys who produced 5.0 WAR - 13 (33.3%)

 

I realize that some guys are going to improve - Strasburg, Price, Bumgarner, etc. are all still good pitchers. And some of the guys with lesser numbers - guys like Storen (a reliever) and Wheeler (who has been injured but has shown promise) will improve as well.

 

Also, the slotting of the draft picks probably makes things less volatile than they were during the time frame I am looking at. People are making picks based on money as much as they used to.

 

Still, it's an interesting list. The odds of getting a really, really good player aren't great - maybe 10%. The odds of getting a flop are pretty high - roughly 2/3.

[Jenkins5]

Jim Callis said he is hearing more than five different names for the Brewers. Link: http://www.the3rdmanin.com/qa-mlb-coms-jim-callis-2/

 

10 out of 10 times I pick Mickey or Blake over Ray. Lewis is a beast so I have no issue him. I have never bought into Ray. He has never been best CF on his own team, doubt he will be in the minors. His arm can only play in left then. To me he is Michael Reed type player. Reed very well could be a good every day starter in the MLB like Ray but I don't see Ray ever being the can't miss guy you want at #5. To me, he doesn't have any tools that really pop. Mickey can flat out rake and run. Ray has a good hit tool and good speed but Mickey if he adds some pop could be special. Rutherford is just that all around guy who can hit for average, power, has good enough arm for right, and could develop into an All-Star caliber player that I don't see in Ray.

 

Perez is so young and glowing with upside. He will be 17 all his first rookie season. Next year he could play all of Helena at 18. By 19 be in Wisconsin (Rutherford is already 19). His projections are through the roof with his body type and natural abilities.

 

Pint and Groome......Don't see how you pass on either. Pint maybe but Groome, you don't even think of passing on imo. Brewers need a guy with his star potential too much.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Excellent post Reilly.

 

Even though it doesn't make me feel good about the chances of getting a true ace.

[And That]

Narrowing reilly's list down to the top 5 picks for fun:

 

2000

#2 - Adam Johnson

#4 - Mike Stodolka (HS)

 

2001

#2 - Mark Prior - 16.5

#3 - Dewon Brazelton

#4 - Gavin Floyd (HS) - 16.4

 

2002

#1 - Bryan Bullington

#3 - Chris Gruler (HS)

#4 - Adam Loewen (HS) - 0.3

#5 - Clint Everts (HS)

 

2003

#3 - Kyle Sleeth

#4 - Tim Stauffer - 3.5

 

2004

#2 - Justin Verlandet - 44.1

#3 - Phillip Humber - 0.9

#4 - Jeff Niemann - 4.1

#5 - Mark Rogers (HS) - 1.1

 

2005

 

2006

#1 - Luke Hochevar - 3.1

#2 - Greg Reynolds

#4 - Brad Lincoln - 0.5

#5 - Brandon Morrow - 8.1

 

2007

#1 - David Price - 28.8

#4 - Daniel Moskos - 0.2

 

2008

#4 - Brian Matusz - 3.0

 

2009

#1 - Stephen Strasburg - 16.1

#5 - Matt Hobgood (HS)

 

College: 17 picks, 5 of which produced a 5+ WAR to date (29%), 13 of which produced any + WAR to date (76%)

HS: 7 picks, 1 of which produced a 5+ WAR to date (14%), 2 of which produced any + WAR to date (29%)

 

And to bring it forward a few years:

 

2010

#2 - Jameson Taillon (HS) - a number of injuries but still well regarded

#5 - Drew Pomeranz - 4.7

--

#6 - Barret Loux - no longer even in affiliated ball

#7 - Matt Harvey - 11.3

#9 - Karsten Whitson (HS) - did not sign, drafted again a few years later, no longer in affiliated ball

 

2011

#1 - Gerrit Cole - 8.2

#2 - Danny Hultzen - injuries, injuries, injuries

#3 - Trevor Bauer - 3.1

#4 - Dylan Bundy (HS) - 0.5

--

#7 - Archie Bradley (HS) - -0.9

 

2012

#4 - Kevin Gausman - 2.7

--

#5 - Kyle Zimmer - has underperformed expectations

#7 - Max Fried (HS) - missed last year due to injury

#8 - Mark Appel - should debut this year

#9 - Andrew Heaney - 1.3

[SRB]

I don't agree with selling yourself at number 5 with a draft pool savings concept to try to get better players at subsequent slots. You have the fifth overall pick. You earned it. Now capitalize with an elite talent. Our top 30-50 is littered with solid prospects. What's missing is elite talent, particularly pitching. Go get a top 5 talent at 1.5. Don't get a lower talent, pay him less and then at the next pick hope to get a nice prospect.

 

We can't be making those moves now.

 

The theory would be that there is no elite talent at #5 in this year's draft, so it makes sense to get a very good player (like Perez) and then 1-2 additional very good players later on. Though maybe Perez wouldn't even be underslot for us, I'm just going off the fact that he has no college commitment.

[DHonks]

I'm of the idea that college hitters are preferred early in the draft, then high school hitters, the high school arms, then college arms.

 

Based on what exactly? The success we had with Braun and because Weeks had a high floor?

 

Oops, my mistake. I meant HS hitters than college, followed by pitchers.

 

My reason is that I feel like the floor for a hitter is higher. I feel like if a hitter does well in the minors, he can always be swapped for pitching. I also like the typical approach of the Brewers over the last decade to load up on pitching in rounds 3-10.

 

On a side note, is Jimmy Nelson the best pitcher the Brewers have developed? Sheets was great out of college. Gallardo always was effective. I don't remember a pitcher ever having the Nelson track where we were mostly disappointed with his early performance and wrote him off, then to have him become a stud.

[brewcrewdue80]

As Milwaukee really could use pitching, and many want us to get a pitcher, and we are discussing our lack of success in drafting pitching, I wanted to see how successful Top 10 draft picks (pitchers only) have fared. I looked at a decade of picks (2000-2009) to do this. I figured we are, mostly, going to know if these guys have been successful or not.

 

I listed the year, the pick’s name, draft spot, if the were picked from high school (HS), and then the bWAR they have accumulated thus far in their career. If they have no number next to them, then they never reached the majors or have a negative WAR.

 

2000

#2 - Adam Johnson

#4 - Mike Stodolka (HS)

#7 - Matt Harrington (HS)

#8 - Matt Wheatland (HS)

#9 - Mark Phillips (HS)

#10 - Joe Torres (HS)

 

2001

#2 - Mark Prior - 16.5

#3 - Dewon Brazelton

#4 - Gavin Floyd (HS) - 16.4

#6 - Josh Karp

#7 - Chris Smith

#8 - John Van Benschoten

#9 - Colt Griffin (HS)

 

2002

#1 - Bryan Bullington

#3 - Chris Gruler (HS)

#4 - Adam Loewen (HS) - 0.3

#5 - Clint Everts (HS)

#6 - Zack Greinke (HS)

#9 - Jeff Francis - 9.3

 

2003

#3 - Kyle Sleeth

#4 - Tim Stauffer - 3.5

#8 - Paul Malholm - 12.1

#9 - John Danks (HS) - 20.9

 

2004

#2 - Justin Verlandet - 44.1

#3 - Phillip Humber - 0.9

#4 - Jeff Niemann - 4.1

#5 - Mark Rogers (HS) - 1.1

#6 - Jeremy Sowers - 1.6

#7 - Homer Bailey (HS) - 7.3

#8 - Wade Townsend

#10 - Thomas Diamond

 

2005

#6 - Ricky Romero - 9.7

#8 - Wade Townsend (2nd time selected in 1st round)

#9 - Mike Palfrey - 5.6

 

2006

#1 - Luke Hochevar - 3.1

#2 - Greg Reynolds

#4 - Brad Lincoln - 0.5

#5 - Brandon Morrow - 8.1

#6 - Andrew Miller - 2.3

#7 - Clayton Kershaw (HS) - 51.5

#10 - Tim Lincecum - 22.7

 

2007

#1 - David Price - 28.8

#4 - Daniel Moskos - 0.2

#6 - Ross Detwiler - 0.6

#8 - Casey Weathers

#9 - Jarrod Parker (HS) - 6.1

#10 - Madison Bumgarner (HS) - 24.5

 

2008

#4 - Brian Matusz - 3.0

#9 - Aaron Crow - 2.4

 

2009

#1 - Stephen Strasburg - 16.1

#5 - Matt Hobgood (HS)

#6 - Zack Wheeler (HS) - 1.8

#7 - Mike Minor - 3.9

#8 - Mike Leake - 12.1

#9 - Jacob Turner (HS)

#10 - Drew Storen - 5.1

 

Some Results

 

- Total # of players - 54 (I only counted Wade Townsend once)

- High School picks - 20

- College picks - 34

- Guys never made the majors (or had a negative bWAR) - 22 (41% completely failed, 59% had positive WAR)

- Guys who had a WAR of less than 5.0 - 36 (67.7% failure rate)

- Guys who produced 10+ WAR - 11 (20.3%)

- Guys who produced 20+ WAR - 6 - (11.1%)

- HS guys who produced 5.0+ WAR - 6 (30.0%)

- College guys who produced 5.0 WAR - 13 (33.3%)

 

I realize that some guys are going to improve - Strasburg, Price, Bumgarner, etc. are all still good pitchers. And some of the guys with lesser numbers - guys like Storen (a reliever) and Wheeler (who has been injured but has shown promise) will improve as well.

 

Also, the slotting of the draft picks probably makes things less volatile than they were during the time frame I am looking at. People are making picks based on money as much as they used to.

 

Still, it's an interesting list. The odds of getting a really, really good player aren't great - maybe 10%. The odds of getting a flop are pretty high - roughly 2/3.

 

So how did Zach Grienke(6th selection 48.4WAR) the Ace and I know Jacob Turner(9th selection -.5WAR) has sporadic playing time....Omitted?

[brewcrewdue80]

I get that were looking at only a 30% chance of 10+WAR for Pitchers. But at the same time the general overall rate for 1st rd picks to reach the ML level is under 50% I believe. So many aspects to consider. Pre Money Allotments. Teams like the Rays, Pittsburgh, and Brewers weren't going to put up the asked money amount for certain players so you draft what you can sign. Brazelton had 1.125mil for his rookie year appearance on Rays.

 

Also, it's not that the talent isn't there, it's usually a result of arm injuries that keep the Pitchers from performing. Hultzen was so much prized and he can't make a roster due to injuries. Mark Prior was certainly on his way to 20+WAR. Injured. So it's tough to put down a bunch of these picks as being terrible when injuries deteriorate their talent potential at draft day.

Covey is currently the A's #15 prospect and now doing fairly well in AA. I realize not part of this top 10 list but he's a blackmark on here on HS pitcher picks. Like it was a terrible choice. He still has a future to make it in the Bigs. And that will make the Brewers picking of him more assuring.

 

If you put the same top 10 graph for Position players the rate overall probably doesn't improve much. Especially the 20+WAR players sans 2005draft which may be best ever this decade on position player WAR. Mccutchen was 11, Bruce 12. Only the Catcher didn't produce over 9WAR and 7/9 15+WAR in top 12.

 

I'll take the BPA Pitcher at #5 on the Brewers draft board. Even if they have Perez or Lewis or Ray 1 spot ahead of them. Team needs to luck in to one of those 20+WAR SPs.

[paul253]

I'll take the BPA Pitcher at #5 on the Brewers draft board

 

I agree with this. While the odds of our pick turning into an ace are slim you still have to try. The likelihood of getting an ace may be low but it's still higher than getting one after the first or second round. I know it's hardly scientific but I just glanced at the best pitchers in terms of ERA so far this year. Almost all of them are either first round picks, second round picks, or international FAs. That kind of mirrors our success with developing above average to good pitchers. Sheets (first round) Gallardo (second round) Nelson (second round) and to a much lesser extent Peralta (FA) and Jungmann (first round), plus still a fair amount of hope for Williams (second) Medeiros (first) Kirby (comp) and Lopez (second). So while our pitcher development has been ok lately, it's almost been non existent with guys picked after round 2. I'd like to see high ceiling pitchers picked with at least two of our top three picks, then shoot for position players later.

[reillymcshane]

As Milwaukee really could use pitching, and many want us to get a pitcher, and we are discussing our lack of success in drafting pitching, I wanted to see how successful Top 10 draft picks (pitchers only) have fared. I looked at a decade of picks (2000-2009) to do this. I figured we are, mostly, going to know if these guys have been successful or not.

 

I listed the year, the pick’s name, draft spot, if the were picked from high school (HS), and then the bWAR they have accumulated thus far in their career. If they have no number next to them, then they never reached the majors or have a negative WAR.

 

2000

#2 - Adam Johnson

#4 - Mike Stodolka (HS)

#7 - Matt Harrington (HS)

#8 - Matt Wheatland (HS)

#9 - Mark Phillips (HS)

#10 - Joe Torres (HS)

 

2001

#2 - Mark Prior - 16.5

#3 - Dewon Brazelton

#4 - Gavin Floyd (HS) - 16.4

#6 - Josh Karp

#7 - Chris Smith

#8 - John Van Benschoten

#9 - Colt Griffin (HS)

 

2002

#1 - Bryan Bullington

#3 - Chris Gruler (HS)

#4 - Adam Loewen (HS) - 0.3

#5 - Clint Everts (HS)

#6 - Zack Greinke (HS)

#9 - Jeff Francis - 9.3

 

2003

#3 - Kyle Sleeth

#4 - Tim Stauffer - 3.5

#8 - Paul Malholm - 12.1

#9 - John Danks (HS) - 20.9

 

2004

#2 - Justin Verlandet - 44.1

#3 - Phillip Humber - 0.9

#4 - Jeff Niemann - 4.1

#5 - Mark Rogers (HS) - 1.1

#6 - Jeremy Sowers - 1.6

#7 - Homer Bailey (HS) - 7.3

#8 - Wade Townsend

#10 - Thomas Diamond

 

2005

#6 - Ricky Romero - 9.7

#8 - Wade Townsend (2nd time selected in 1st round)

#9 - Mike Palfrey - 5.6

 

2006

#1 - Luke Hochevar - 3.1

#2 - Greg Reynolds

#4 - Brad Lincoln - 0.5

#5 - Brandon Morrow - 8.1

#6 - Andrew Miller - 2.3

#7 - Clayton Kershaw (HS) - 51.5

#10 - Tim Lincecum - 22.7

 

2007

#1 - David Price - 28.8

#4 - Daniel Moskos - 0.2

#6 - Ross Detwiler - 0.6

#8 - Casey Weathers

#9 - Jarrod Parker (HS) - 6.1

#10 - Madison Bumgarner (HS) - 24.5

 

2008

#4 - Brian Matusz - 3.0

#9 - Aaron Crow - 2.4

 

2009

#1 - Stephen Strasburg - 16.1

#5 - Matt Hobgood (HS)

#6 - Zack Wheeler (HS) - 1.8

#7 - Mike Minor - 3.9

#8 - Mike Leake - 12.1

#9 - Jacob Turner (HS)

#10 - Drew Storen - 5.1

 

Some Results

 

- Total # of players - 54 (I only counted Wade Townsend once)

- High School picks - 20

- College picks - 34

- Guys never made the majors (or had a negative bWAR) - 22 (41% completely failed, 59% had positive WAR)

- Guys who had a WAR of less than 5.0 - 36 (67.7% failure rate)

- Guys who produced 10+ WAR - 11 (20.3%)

- Guys who produced 20+ WAR - 6 - (11.1%)

- HS guys who produced 5.0+ WAR - 6 (30.0%)

- College guys who produced 5.0 WAR - 13 (33.3%)

 

I realize that some guys are going to improve - Strasburg, Price, Bumgarner, etc. are all still good pitchers. And some of the guys with lesser numbers - guys like Storen (a reliever) and Wheeler (who has been injured but has shown promise) will improve as well.

 

Also, the slotting of the draft picks probably makes things less volatile than they were during the time frame I am looking at. People are making picks based on money as much as they used to.

 

Still, it's an interesting list. The odds of getting a really, really good player aren't great - maybe 10%. The odds of getting a flop are pretty high - roughly 2/3.

 

So how did Zach Grienke(6th selection 48.4WAR) the Ace and I know Jacob Turner(9th selection -.5WAR) has sporadic playing time....Omitted?

Boo boo on my part.

 

I remember typing in Turner's name. I must have accidently cut it at some point - probably when I went in and inserted the (HS) next to all the high school players' names.

 

It's the curse of longer lists. Cut and copy and paste so fast - you end up messing something up.

[Austin Tatious]

It's a relevant point and all that you have a good chance of whiffing in the first round at pitcher. Arm injuries, lack of secondary offerings, poor makeup. Any of these things can scuttle a player's development.

 

But, let's not overlook a few points. First of all, you can whiff badly at position players too. More importantly, once you get out of the first round, you don't have much chance at all to get an ace. If you ran a study of pitchers drafted after round one, the number of elite pitchers slims down to a minuscule percentage.

 

The list of front line aces that come out of the first round lists is pretty encompassing. Milwaukee needs to grow its own aces. Certainly, they won't be signed in free agency. The Brewers could sell the farm in a trade as we've seen, but drafting our own ace is the best way to go. It needs to be done with a high pick, and that high pick needs to be converted into success.

 

Position players are more easily found in later rounds compared with a top of the rotation starter. The ace starters by and large come out of the 1st round.

 

Drafting middling guys like Corey Ray over a potential ace does not seem like you're getting value. Ray may have a higher floor and likely won't completely flame out. But he wouldn't ever be the value an ace pitcher would be. So, you take the risk on ace, full well knowing the risk of failure is there.

 

Can you imagine the fall out if the Brewers drafted a high floor guy like Corey Ray and pass on Pint or Groome, and then Pint or Groome become an ace pitcher, while Ray becomes an ok dime a dozen outfielder? The Brewers would be a complete laughingstock. And that could happen.

 

On the other hand, if the Brewers draft Groome or Pint and they never develop, while Corey Ray is batting .280 with 15 and 65 playing left field for the Marlins or somebody, the sell would be the Brewers took the necessary chance on an ace pitcher.

[brewmann04]

If an Arm fall to them think that has to be their choice need a potential ace .