We're Number Five! We're Number Five! - The 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[splitterpfj]

Keep an eye on Dakota Hudson - he may actually pitch his way ahead of the Brewers' pick, with a hot streak, but he's a guy who has a shot to be right in the Brewers' range.

 

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=dakota+hudson&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#q=dakota+hudson&tbm=nws

[Austin Tatious]

Three to six months ago, some Brewers fans were lamenting, "I wish there was a way that Jason Groome could fall to five." Implicit in that wish was that something (negative) would make him fall. Now it may actually happen.

 

I could see picking Riley Pint over Groome, but I'm still willing to take a chance on whoever the scouts feel is better between the two. How else are we ever going to get our TOR guy, the guy who can win a couple of games in a post season series? Yes, we could end up with Mark Rogers but that's the deal on taking high end high school pitchers. Aside from a high draft pick, it's tough to get your ace. Jake Arrieta type trades don't fall out of the sky often.

 

You can pick apart any high school pitcher for any reason. Possible arm troubles, poor adjustments, etc. It's a risk. But we need to hit on ace. Pint and Groome still seem like mega-talented, precocious arms. That to me trumps everything.

[MrTPlush]

Dakota Huson is pretty underrated among fans. His Fastball/Slider combo is nasty and it sounds like the Curveball/Changeup are both decent. Probably a pretty good pitcher that can move through the system fast. He may not have the ceiling of some of the other options, but he is a lot less risky than a HS arm and still has frontline potential.

[paul253]

I hope they don't settle for another high floor guy. Not saying Hudson isn't good but his ceiling isn't as high as a Pint or a Groome. I want to see them go for the home run. My top 3 are still Groome, Pint then Puk, with Lewis#4 probably.

[JDBrewCrew]

Another mock with the Brewers landing Perez.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/177741112/kyle-lewis-at-no-1-in-latest-mlb-mock-draft?topicid=151437456

[And That]

Another mock with the Brewers landing Perez.

With Senzel and Pint and Rutherford still on the board no less. Perez does seem like more of a Brewers-y pick I guess.

 

Fangraphs has a mock as well, with the Brewers taking Pint.

[reillymcshane]

With all the mock drafts it seems the consensus pick is that there is no consensus pick.

 

No matter. Can't wait to see what happens.

[JDBrewCrew]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/169000/#XcR7KSdZ6AMrWqWs.97

 

New BA Mock has Brewers taking Ray, with Groome and Perez also being coveted by the team and there at the pick.

[reillymcshane]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/169000/#XcR7KSdZ6AMrWqWs.97

 

New BA Mock has Brewers taking Ray, with Groome and Perez also being coveted by the team and there at the pick.

Groome dropping all the way to 7th. That would be fascinating to see happen.

[TheCrew07]

I talked about Ray in my original post, I like him, I just like the idea of impact pitching more. I know I say that every year, but the truth is that the no player has more control over the game than the pitcher. Therefore nothing is more important in baseball than cost controlled impact pitching.

 

If you want to build a foundation that will last and provide more than just a single playoff series win it has to be based on pitching. That's why I highlight pitchers every year for that #1 pick, that's why my list is much narrower than others including the Brewers, and that's why I will continue to look for pitchers. We need a steady stream of impact pitching, not 1 legit pitcher every 5 or 6 years.

[CheezWizHed]

So if Groome is there, is the consensus to pass on him?

 

Also, is Perez a possible underslot pickup since he isn't committed to any college?

[brewcrewdue80]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/169000/#XcR7KSdZ6AMrWqWs.97

 

New BA Mock has Brewers taking Ray, with Groome and Perez also being coveted by the team and there at the pick.

 

Grade this a poor mock. So for Cincy Ray is knocked down for having no Defensive future. Then throw Ray at the Brewers because having a draft year plus cold weather roots? (does the guy know Miller Park is in existence?) This upon mentioning Brewer ties to Perez and Groome with Ray the 3rd mentioned. Get to Marlins and it's they take Groome because he has Front Line Starter upside? LOL

 

Come on! Trent Clark last season as 1st rd pick. So we draft another OF? Ignoring the desperation need of "Front Line Starter" within the club's minors? The Marlins have Fernandez and Kolek. So let's continue the build for them with another Front Line Starter as we are continuing the Brewers build with another OF? I haven't done my video scouting like last year. I'll say this based on early Mock and draft write-ups. Delvin Perez or a SP with upside. There isn't another option for me at this point. Groome, Pint, Hudson, Wentz, Whitley and Puk. These are all taller players so obviously the HS ages bring future projections with Puk/Hudson being more filled out.

Ray at 5'11" doesn't bring that nor is he HS aged.

 

Forrest Whitley his readup. Already a guy who's filled up his size for his height.

What's the lack of mention going on with him? If he's offering 3 pitches with plus potential? 6'7" touching 97? from 92 the year before? Curve/Change. Kinda reads as someone that should be on the rise, yet he's not even in this mock.

[MrTPlush]

The cold weather comment was referring to him having more potential than he is showing because he plays in cold weather so much. I don't know if I really agree...but that is what the mock draft was trying to say.

 

 

What gets me is the fact the Brewers reportedly covet Groome and Ray, but we pick Ray. Why would we pick Ray over Groome if we really like both? Sorry if there is a pitcher we really like available I can't imagine the Brewers passing up that opportunity. Not to mention our scouting director has a thing for HS upside vs. college kids.

[MrTPlush]

Also, is Perez a possible underslot pickup since he isn't committed to any college?

 

Yes...that is why they had him going to the Padres at #7. It was mentioned in the tidbit that the Padres want to go underslot so they can get better names at their other two high picks.

[Jenkins5]

Ray is one of the few guys that will really disappoint me, too many high ceiling guys to gamble on. Don't play safe with the high floor OF who will not be much more than an average starting LF

[billymac]

Yikes, this article puts top prep arms in perspective...

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-prep-arms-risky/#FdtEBTPAjuKzei92.97

 

Around 10 really impact HS arms since 2000 taken in the top 20 picks.

 

I think a big part of it is developing which the Crew has not been good at, but we'll see if Stearns can turn that around and if he will take one of the top prep arms if available.

7 of 15 HS pitchers since 2010 taken in the top 20 have had TJ surgery so health is a major issue as well....

[JohnBriggs12]

Just saw interview with Zack Collins on MLB traderumors. What's not to like here? Power, patience, LH bat, from top program. Sure, he's projected to go lower, but so was Schwarber wasn't he? They invested a lot to get Nottingham but no reason not to have two stud catchers in the system and hope one can handle the job defensively and the other hits enough to play elsewhere.

[And That]

Don't know how well/often it's updated, may contain a number of questionable-source mock drafts, it looks like an HTML table from 1996, and they can't decide how to spell Jason Groome's last name, but thought this was a good resource to compare all of the mocks out there:

 

http://dcprosportsreport.com/MLBMocks.htm

 

For all of the mock drafts since the beginning of April, the Brewers' spread of players is as follows:

 

Delvin Perez: 8

Jason Groome: 3

Riley Pint: 3

Corey Ray: 3

Kyle Lewis: 2

A.J. Puk: 2

Blake Rutherford: 1

[Surhoff5]

Just saw interview with Zack Collins on MLB traderumors. What's not to like here? Power, patience, LH bat, from top program. Sure, he's projected to go lower, but so was Schwarber wasn't he? They invested a lot to get Nottingham but no reason not to have two stud catchers in the system and hope one can handle the job defensively and the other hits enough to play elsewhere.

 

I don't think there is any chance that Collins can stick at catcher, but his bat should play almost anywhere. He isn't my top choice at #5, but if he can transition to 1B, he will move quickly.

[Austin Tatious]

Yikes, this article puts top prep arms in perspective...

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-prep-arms-risky/#FdtEBTPAjuKzei92.97

 

Around 10 really impact HS arms since 2000 taken in the top 20 picks.

 

I think a big part of it is developing which the Crew has not been good at, but we'll see if Stearns can turn that around and if he will take one of the top prep arms if available.

7 of 15 HS pitchers since 2010 taken in the top 20 have had TJ surgery so health is a major issue as well....

 

 

Great post and list. It's a very telling list. You have a ton of the top pitchers in baseball coming out of high school on that list: Bumgarner, Fernandez, Kershaw, Grienke, Hamels, Giolito, Miller et al. There will always be that Mike Fiers 22nd rounder who makes it in the mid-to back of the rotation, but if you want a dominant ace that can win multiple games in a playoff series, drafting a high school ace is the way to go, as this list shows.

[DHonks]

I'm of the idea that college hitters are preferred early in the draft, then high school hitters, the high school arms, then college arms.

[The3rdManIn.com]

Jim Callis said he is hearing more than five different names for the Brewers. Link: http://www.the3rdmanin.com/qa-mlb-coms-jim-callis-2/

[CheezWizHed]

Jim Callis said he is hearing more than five different names for the Brewers. Link: http://www.the3rdmanin.com/qa-mlb-coms-jim-callis-2/

 

Can we draft 5 guys with one pick? That would help.

[TheCrew07]

I'm of the idea that college hitters are preferred early in the draft, then high school hitters, the high school arms, then college arms.

 

Based on what exactly? The success we had with Braun and because Weeks had a high floor?

[Eye Black]

Three weeks out from the draft now the Brewers likely have their the draft board coming into focus. With factors such as potential pool money cost savings not withstanding, curious what you think their top five targets should be? They are obviously guaranteed to get one of their top five prospects.

 

Subject to change, but my current top five (actually six) would be...

 

1. Jason Groome

2. Riley Pint

3. A.J. Puk

4. Corey Ray

5 (tie). Blake Rutherford / Delvin Perez

 

I don't know any actual facts regarding the speculation and rumblings surrounding Groome, so I am not willing to have it effect my opinion at this point. My opinion is that he is the clear-cut best selection in this draft.

 

I really hope one of the top three pitchers is available at the #5 selection. After the top three things seems to drop off.

 

I go back and forth between Blake Rutherford and Delvin Perez. Rutherford gets dinged by many for his older than typical age for a HS kid. One concern highlighted with Perez is that Baseball Prospectus' Chris Crawford (who has Perez rated his second best overall prospect) mentioned on a recent podcast appearance that there are as many maturity questions surrounding Perez as he can remember around a top five draft prospect in the past several years. He said one source referred to Perez as a "nitwit".

 

I am not yet a Kyle Lewis believer. I realize it is impossible to really get a good gauge on these guys from watching YouTube videos (a.k.a. couch scouting), but my impression of Lewis in limited viewing is he appears to have swing and miss in his swing that may be exposed against advanced pitching.

 

Curious what others top five lists look like?