Trading partner: Kansas City Royals

[LouisEly]

The Royals starting pitching hasn't been doing them any favors. 36-year-old Jeremy Guthrie got shelled today and his peripherals have been terrible anyway. Danny Duffy just landed on the DL with shoulder soreness (and was struggling before that), Jason Vargas wasn't good before landing on the DL, and Chris Young doesn't have a track record of staying healthy. All of their top pitching prospects are in the lower levels, so there probably isn't going to be any help internally. Depending on how long Duffy and Vargas will be out, they may need to make a move sooner rather than later.

 

Obviously two things would need to happen: 1) the Brewers would need to pick up a significant portion of Lohse's or(and) Garza's contract, and B) given Lohse's and Garza's rough starts to the season it would likely need to be for a PTBNL with options depending on their performance (if that is allowed). But with the Royals' top pitching prospects in the lower levels, with two in the first two rounds of last year's draft, a PTBNL might be a very good fit for both teams. The Royals also have Hunter Dozier who struggled at AA, but has Moustakas ahead of him anyway.

 

A low-risk expiring contract like Lohse's probably would be more appealing, but with their top pitching prospects a few years away and filling holes with journeymen such as Guthrie and Vargas, having a solid #3 such as Garza under control for a couple more years until reinforcements arrive might be very appealing to them.

 

Dozier and Griffin for Lohse and Garza, if the Brewers pick up enough of the contracts?

[MrTPlush]

I have to laugh every time I see a trade proposal regarding Lohse/Garza. We talk about other teams having a pitcher getting shelled or having bad peripherals, but we want them to trade for an expensive guy with the same garbage showings?

 

I think we should put all this talk about Lohse/Garza on the backburner until they can pitch somewhat well. Until then any trade would be a salary dump at best no matter who we are trading with.

[nate82]

Hunter Dozier should be enough just for Lohse alone without even throwing in any money for Lohse. Another player from the Royals who is in the same position as Dozier is Cheslor Cuthbert both are B-/C type prospects.

[brewcrewdue80]

I have to laugh every time I see a trade proposal regarding Lohse/Garza. We talk about other teams having a pitcher getting shelled or having bad peripherals, but we want them to trade for an expensive guy with the same garbage showings?

 

I think we should put all this talk about Lohse/Garza on the backburner until they can pitch somewhat well. Until then any trade would be a salary dump at best no matter who we are trading with.

 

 

All you do is make negative comments on anyone's ideas. Maybe it was because likely your one trade proposal to accept was this:

With the Padres looking for shortstop help, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron sees the Brewers’ Jean Segura as a realistic trade target. Cameron speculates that a deal of Segura for Odrisamer Despaigne, Brandon Maurer and one of Alexi Amarista/Clint Barmes could give both teams an overall roster upgrade. Beyond Segura, Cameron doesn’t see the likes of Troy Tulowitzki, Elvis Andrus, Starlin Castro or Jose Ramirez as plausible San Diego trade targets for a variety of reasons.

 

 

Where is the accept button...has Segura even hit a ball in the air? Ground ball machine...

 

You were excited about getting Odrisamer Despaign for Segura.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/despaod01.shtml

 

This guy's stats on the season. a 59 ERA+ on the season for a ML Shortstop with upside and team control. I think you've learned your lesson from the outcry against such a pathetic deal for Segura and now all you do is downplay every single trade idea without making any suggestions of your own. You're absolutely Small Sample Sized opinion. Ignore the Lohse/Garza of 2014 and only count their 2015 Games started as your definite opinion of lousy value. Forget about Innings limits or health and just focus on ERAs. Lohse today getting beat up on that with his bullpen Jeffress allowing all 3 runners Lohse was responsible to score when a single Double play ball would have given him a 5.1 3ER outing. All the damage today in the 6th inning coming on Singles on Lohse. Tough Luck. Find a fielder and maybe it's a Double Play ball. These weren't HRs or line drives for doubles. Singles.

 

Also, don't ever take in to account ballpark factor. Nothing like pitching in Miller park for your home games when it's regularly in the top 6 hitters ballparks. Meanwhile the Dodgers/Padres pitch in regularly the top 6 pitchers ballparks.

 

Playoff hoping teams like KC/Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox they need SPs that can pitch in September for them(due to injuries/performance) if they really want to make it through this season. Talents in Single A ball that are 2+ if not 3+ years away arent going to be that answer neither will their AAA guys that are #4/5 pitchers with an innings cap. But those talents in single A can be offered in a trade. In a perfect world these teams wouldn't have needed this help for pitching. Now the teams can pick their poison, do they want to offer up their top prospects less than 2 if not 1 season away from joining the team to get the help or do they offer up those single A talents? Now, the Cubs could offer up Javier Baez for a Hamels. And the Phillies now ask for Seager or Urias, though the ceilings on these two would appear a full level if not 2 higher than the K volatile already sent back to AAA Baez. Offering Holmes or De Leon would likely just be laughed at by the Phillies with Baez being offered. It'll be based on the ranking of Baez as a prospect and the rankings of Seager/Urias being about the same supposedly. Holmes/De Leon don't rank that high yet/or ever. Some team will overpay in prospects for the supposed Studs in trade deadline...as Garza was less than 2 years ago as a rental, not the 2+seasons remaining on his "Stud" contract for a #3 price tag.

 

Garza's had 4 of 6 runners score that the Brewers bullpen has inherited. All 4 could have been negated if a double play was instead made or a K+3out occured. Garza would have a 5.01ERA if those relievers did their jobs. And remove his 10ER performance the 2 inherited runs also allowed outside of that and he's at 3.88ERA Which is about what a #3 should be.

 

Not counting today's Lohse line/remove his worst outing and Lohse is at 4.47ERA while avg 6.1IP in 8starts. When guys like Lohse and Garza have a long history of Games started you would remove that 1 start as an aberration vs what to expect. Not like Despaigne or Frias who were already deemed #4/Swingmen Starters who have those ugly starts.

 

3.88 and 4.47 and that's with them having ugly starts to this season. Imagine if they revert back to their career norms, especially if they are moved to Pitcher friendly parks. And obviously at Hitter friendly parks you have your worst case idea what they'll pitch to.

[TooLiveBrew]

Let's keep this thread on topic & stay away from the ad hominem posts. If it goes too far, we'll have to lock it.

[MrTPlush]

Since you think I am being so negative let me explain why I don't think either to the Royals make a whole lot of sense. I feel like with their struggles their eventual landing spot will be with a team that wants a veteran rotation guy despite some struggles. I don't see why a Royal's team already with some struggling vets wants another one. I just don't see them taking on another expensive guy who is struggling.

 

Bottom line they both need to start pitching better. I don't think they are worthless, but right now I wouldn't expect much in return. But like I have said MANY times in the past they can change that very quickly over the course of a month.

 

Also I tend to not throw names out this early that we may target. like other do. Actually I prefer not to throw out names until real rumors or interest from other teams comes about.

[MNBrew]

It's funny how we're conditioned to think on this board over time. We undervalue many of our own assets, but if it were the Brewers looking to trade for SPs like Lohse & Garza, much of the talk likely would be re: how many Top 15 prospects we'd have to give up to acquire a healthy, proven arm like those guys both have. They're not a Greinke or Sabathia, but their career norms still point to 1.5 to 2 assets of the caliber we traded 3 of to get each of those guys -- and goodness knows we never asked KC or CLE to pick up part of the salary of either of those guys.

 

It's a side point, but Lohse & Garza are both getting paid salaries a bit under Qualifying Offer levels, so it's not like in today's market they're on absurd contracts (meaning that comparable FA replacements for them would likely get paid more than those two guys are presently getting).

 

I think if the Brewers hit the "significant rebuild" button, Lohse & Garza are significant assets to trade, and one thing Melvin's proved quite well over time is that he usually's pretty on target with his timing and maximizing the return on a trade given the circumstances at the time.

 

I like that KC has some assets that might be worthwhile, but I wonder if the Brewers might do better trying to do business with teams more likely to make a move to put themselves over the top AND who have plenty of appealing & worthwhile younger players (teams like LAD, Houston, MN, & the Cubs are some teams that come to mind, maybe Washington).

[LouisEly]

A big chunk of the value of Lohse and Garza will be based on supply and demand. I put this in another thread, but when I look at 2014 NL starting pitchers (I even dropped the innings filter to 120 IP), Lohse was in the top 30 in ERA (a #2 starter) and Garza was just outside the top 30 (#33 - a high #3). A vast majority of the guys ahead of them are either not going to be available, are hurt, or are pitching in pitcher-friendly ballparks and are likely not better. So back to supply and demand - who is better that a) is going to be available, b) is healthy, and c) doesn't come with a huge contract? Cueto? Hamels is better, but comes with at least $76.5M owed for the next three years. I don't think KC will take that on. If you don't trust Lohse or Garza, then you probably aren't going to trust 37-year-old Aaron Harang either, but I think Harang is the biggest competitor for Lohse or Garza.

 

I think the Royals are a good fit because 1) they have a couple starters on the DL, B) they have no depth - all of their top pitching prospects are in the low levels of the minors, and 3) they've made big trades between the two teams recently so there's some comfort and familiarity.

 

The best thing that could happen is for all the teams MNBrew mentioned to be in need/want mode and for not much else to be available/healthy. No better way to inflate the value of assets than for demand to go up and supply to go down.

[JohnBriggs12]

There's a number of guys that look to me to be likely be available, healthy and better than Lohse or Garza. I'm excluding Hamels because only the largest market teams can afford him. Royals would not fall into that category:

 

The list:

 

Cueto

 

Samardzija

 

Kazmir

 

Haren

 

Harang

 

 

The list may change between now and July, but all these guys seem more attractive right now than Lohse (even Harang) and I don't think anyone will bite on Garza with the money left on his deal.

[igor67]

I have doubts that when it comes to money Gaza or Lohse represent any significant hurdle. Average veteran starting players seem to be worth about 15/million on the market these days, so assuming normal performance both guys are arguably underpaid. Conversely the commitment is small enough that it wouldn't be too hard to imagine the Brewers off setting some of the salary if there truly was a budget issue with a team. It does seem like there might be more starters available than usual at the deadline this year, but I do think both are pretty useful assets good enough to potentially make a difference and also not really expensive in terms of prospects. And the relatively short term of the money could look quite attractive to a team like the Royals, paper over the hole on the roster without giving up too much in either money or prospects.

[MrTPlush]

I think a team that doesn't really have prospects, on the fence about competing, or not motivated to move better prospects might be a good fit.

 

Those types of teams might be open to giving up Mitch Haniger type prospect for Lohse/Garza since they don't want to spend on a big time pitcher, but still need that veteran pitcher. So tricky to predict what a player will eventually go for. You find the perfect match and you have a surprsing return. On the flip side sometimes you can't find a good match and you have to settle on a dissapointing return.

[reillymcshane]

NL starters in 2014 had a 3.74 ERA. Lohse had a 3.54 ERA and Garza had a 3.64 ERA. That put them just above average. Solid #3 guys performance wise, but nothing more.

 

This year they have both been terrible. While 10 starts is a small sample, it's to the point where you can't dismiss them either. Whether its age, injury, mechanics or whatever, you have wonder what's up with both players.

 

Perhaps a team can see things in those players that they think they can correct to get either guy back on track. If so, maybe someone would want them. But to me, it's hard to see anyone really giving up much of anything for either guy - at least at this point. Maybe if they can put together a nice string of starts they'll draw some serious interest.

 

I think there are two examples from last year - the trades of Jake Peavy and Justin Masterson. The Giants gave up a solid pitching prospect in Edwin Escobar to get Peavy, who had a 4.90 ERA at the time. They also got Boston to pay $2-3 million of Peavys remaining salary.

 

Masterson was having a worse year 5.51 ERA at the time of the trade. The cards gave up James Ramsey, a nothing special OF.

 

I think the Peavy deal shows that if the club picks up some salary, we can improve the quality of the prospect in any deal.

 

I'm the end, Lohse and Garza's track record (something teams value) might be enough to draw some serious trade interest. But without improved performance, I don't see a lot coming back to the club.

[LouisEly]

I'm curious about Haren. The last two years his ERA has been higher than Lohse, especially considering last year he was pitching in a very pitcher-friendly park (LA) while Lohse has been pitching in a very hitter-friendly park (and in a very good division). He's off to a better start than Lohse, but it's only 9 starts (I don't know if Miami is a hitter's park, pitcher's park, or neutral). It's reasonable to expect Lohse to start to decline a little, but why would a 36-year-old Lohse be expected to regress but a 34-year-old Haren expected to improve? The bigger sample says Lohse has been the better pitcher; Haren might just be a bigger name on a hotter streak.

 

Now that being said, Haren is a threat to go back to LA, and he's probably trying to broker a deal himself (considering he threatened to retire when he was traded to the Marlins). The Marlins got some cash to pay for Haren's contract, but are they going to give that cash to whomever they trade him to? I don't know that Haren has the clubhouse presence that Lohse has either to offer a young team without much veteran leadership.

 

Cueto with a MRI on his elbow today. Might be crossing him off the list. And I don't know that the White Sox are going to dump Samardzija after trading for him in the offseason. Someone will definitely give up a draft pick to sign him, so I don't know that the White Sox aren't going to try to extend him with the draft pick compensation as the return if they can't. Wouldn't say 100% that he's available.

[bill hAll Star]

Miami is a pitcher's park and the NL East is a horrendously bad offensive division save for Bryce Harper and Stanton.