The Dynamic Should They or Shouldn't They, Who's In Charge Around Here Anyway Thread

[splitterpfj]

This thread is inspired by the Kyle Lohse signing's ability to take over any thread it wants, three years after the fact. Honestly, I'm amazed by its stamina and versatility.

 

Let's use this discussion to debate the direction of the team, the "should they or shouldn't they" side of Sabathia, Greinke, Lohse, etc. Do you never trade prospects for veterans, do you always trade star players, to stay young?

 

I'll begin by saying, I would have done the Sabathia trade, I would have done the Marcum trade, I would have done the Greinke trade, and I support the Lohse signing.

 

If the right offer is there, I would trade Carlos Gomez, in-season, this year.

 

Oh, I also hated the 90s logo, I still can't believe they let Molitor leave, telling him he was a part-time player, and I also still can't believe my dad ducked and covered instead of reaching for that ball Roy White hit right at him in County Stadium in '77. (That one is still a fun topic in the family).

[danzig6767]

I have a hard time believing that Melvin has the authority to make major trades involving guys like Gomez, Lucroy, and Segura without Attanasio first telling Melvin to do so.

 

Melvin is in the final year of his contract and Attanasio has played a major role in the signing of every major free agent from Suppan, Lohse, Ramirez, KRod, and Garza. To think he could just blow up the team without Attanasio first giving the green light strikes me as unrealistic. Clearly those two talk a lot so it likely would have to be some sort of joint decision, but unless Attanasio himself is ok with trading guys like Gomez and/or Lucroy, i just can't see it happening.

 

Attanasio was interviewed a few games after Counsell was hired and he said that for now he was mainly just focused on seeing if the team could start winning again. Granted, most people in that situation weren't going to say in public that hey, we are going to put up a for sale sign for every player on the roster if the price is right. Given how Attanasio has operated overall though for years now, it can be hard to envision him telling Melvin to shop anyone and pull the trigger if good offers come in.

 

I guess we'll find out sometime in July assuming the team is still buried in the standings. If say only guys like Lohse and K-Rod are traded, we'll know that Attanasio simply can't stomach the idea of a serious rebuilding plan.

[paul253]

Sabathia trade: I would have done it. The farm system was loaded at the time. And the future was finally, finally starting to look brighter. A playoff birth that season with the core still young and under control gave a lot of us a lot of hope. It's really a shame that Sheets and Gallardo both got hurt that season. It could have been a special year.

 

Marcum trade: Wasn't big on moving Lawrie but you needed pitching. He was signed for two years and at the time it looked like you could always flip him after the season if you wanted. Would have done it.

 

Greinke: They already acquired Marcum so why not. I loved the trade at the time. Like Marcum he had two years left. I think the 2011 team was the best team since at least '92. That was a fun year.

 

Lohse: Absolutely not. It reeked of panic. You lost a first round pick. I know Mark doesn't care about that but maybe if they had actually been drafting quality players in the first round he'd have had a different opinion. His first picks up until that time included Laporta, who was traded, Lawrie, who was traded, Covey, who didn't sign, and Jungmann and Bradley, which had been a major disaster. Only Braun and Coulter were quality picks up until that time and the Coulter pick was way too early to know if it was any good. He didn't value the first round pick like he should have. And plus, while Lohse was an above average pitcher he was certainly not the kind of player that would put you over the top.

 

I'll add another few moves:

 

Ramirez: Wouldn't have done it. Like Lohse I think it was a panic move. They had just lost Fielder and were desperate for power. I think they'd have been better off resigning Hairston or, and I know hindsight is 20/20, but giving Taylor Green a shot. He was the Minor Year POY the year before after hitting .336/.413/.583 with 22 home runs in Nashville.

 

Matt Garza: Wouldn't have done it. I didn't see what problem it solved at the time. Another pitcher past his prime who may get you some more wins but isn't going to get you to the playoffs because the rest of the team just isn't good enough. I really, really wanted Tyler Thornburg to get a shot at the rotation but this move pretty much killed that idea.

[LouisEly]

Any free agent signing that doesn't involve a) giving up a first round draft pick, b) blocking a top prospect who's ready (key word - "ready"), or c) trying to turn a <70 win team into a 75 win team I'm pretty much 100% for. You can't overspend on draft picks or international free agents (except Cuba) anymore, and it isn't my money. There are two ways to build up a farm system - the draft, and signing free agents and flipping them for prospects. They still have two years to flip Garza for prospects. And I think people forget how good Ramirez was in 2012, and how bad 3B was in 2011 when they were two games from the World Series. The Brewers weren't a 70-win team making those signings; they were an 80-something win team and they tried to go for it. Kudos for them for going for it and not trying to be a .500 team.

 

I think people misunderstand my stance on Lohse. My stance is and has always been, let's wait until he's gone before evaluating the move. If they are not able to trade him for prospects, then I will lean towards the people who objected to his signing. But that hasn't happened yet. Let's see what happens first.

 

100% on the Sabathia trade. They knew they would get a pick back when he left. Nobody foresaw Brantley, a 6th round pick, developing into what he did. Ultimately it ended up being Sabathia for Brantley, and if Teixeira had gotten one less hit in 2008 it would have been Brantley for Trout. And would Brantley even have been given a shot with Braun here?

 

I have no problem going all in for Marcum and Grienke. I really don't think you can reload/recycle and compete for a World Series with the Brewers payroll. You have to have a few years of top 10 picks. People point to Tampa and their ability to reload/recycle, but if they didn't have Price (#1 overall) and Longoria (#3 overall) they wouldn't have competed or been to the World Series. And if you keep dumping guys, fans won't attach to the team and you end up with the low attendance that the Rays have had.

 

I say go for broke, take chances, and then get the 3-4 years of top 10 picks you need to compete.

[lcbj68c]

I have a hard time believing that Melvin has the authority to make major trades involving guys like Gomez, Lucroy, and Segura without Attanasio first telling Melvin to do so.

 

I think MA's involvement in team construction is not as significant as some believe. That said, for the man who rescued us from Wendy Selig and brought us a couple of playoff appearances, he can do whatever he pleases with his money without complaint from me.

[splitterpfj]

For those of you who favor a total rebuild for the Brewers, take a look at what the Braves have done since the end of last season.

 

They traded both Uptons, Craig Kimbrel, Evan Gattis, and minor leaguer Victor Reyes, they allowed Ervin Santana to leave via free agency, and they took on salary from Arizona, by dealing for Trevor Cahill.

 

So, what does all of that mean?

 

It means, Atlanta's farm system, which had been ranked 29th out of 30 teams, got several good young players immediately, and it means Atlanta is set up to dominate the upcoming draft.

 

Teams are allowed to trade, "Competitive Balance Picks", which take place after round one, and after round two. Teams get compensation picks after round one, if they lose a free agent, after making him a, "qualifying offer." The Braves exploited every level, getting a comp pick, (pick 28), for losing Santana, getting a first round competitive balance pick. (pick 41), from the Padres, and getting a second round competitive balance pick, (pick 75), from Arizona.

 

The Braves have six of the top 89 picks in this draft, which obviously gives them a chance to load up on young talent, but look deeper than that. Under the current, "slotting system", each draft pick is assigned a cash value, the team is given a pool of money to sign their picks in the first ten rounds, the amount of cash available is based on which picks you have, the higher the pick, the more cash allotted to sign the player.

 

This means, Atlanta will not only pick a lot of players, but they will also have the money to gamble on players if they want to. If they want to take a chance on a talented pitcher who is currently injured, of if they think they can entice a kid who would otherwise enroll in college, they can do that - they can spend big to get specific players if they want to.

 

Atlanta's work is not done, all of those picks and dollars won't mean anything if they don't draft wisely, but if they do well, they will have moved their farm system from the bottom to at least the middle in one year.

[igor67]

I read some of the pre-draft stuff, but not enough to remotely be an expert but I thought this was something of a down year in the draft. Which suggests a rather big tactical swing and a miss to me on the part of the Braves. In the current rule system I love the strategy, but if you don't even have a chance to actually get 2 or more cornerstone players because he talent isn't there that doesn't sound super exciting.

[MrTPlush]

I have a hard time believing that Melvin has the authority to make major trades involving guys like Gomez, Lucroy, and Segura without Attanasio first telling Melvin to do so.

 

I think MA's involvement in team construction is not as significant as some believe. That said, for the man who rescued us from Wendy Selig and brought us a couple of playoff appearances, he can do whatever he pleases with his money without complaint from me.

 

Oh I think it is. First of all it is Attanasio's choice whether we go for it or reload/rebuild. He also fields waaaay too many calls from agents. He was a big part in the Lohse signing and always a big reason why K-Rod returns.

[Thurston Fluff]

I was for the Marcum and Greinke deals at the time but in hindsight I and not so sure they were the right moves. Sure it gave us one great season. Key word one. Had we kept those players we would now be in the middle of a pretty great run of talent with no end in sight. I think we would have ended up with more playoff appearances if we had traded Fielder for prospects and moved on with what we had.

The Sabathia deal I think is a bit different. Mainly because of the place the franchise was at back then. This franchise needed to show it was a serious player in the league after decades of being a farm system for other franchises. That deal did exactly that. And it really only cost us one player who turned out to be any good. At a position we had someone as good as he was at anyway.

[trwi7]

For those of you who favor a total rebuild for the Brewers, take a look at what the Braves have done since the end of last season.

 

They traded both Uptons, Craig Kimbrel, Evan Gattis, and minor leaguer Victor Reyes, they allowed Ervin Santana to leave via free agency, and they took on salary from Arizona, by dealing for Trevor Cahill.

 

So, what does all of that mean?

 

I think many of us would be ecstatic if the Brewers did what the Braves have done this past offseason leading right up to the start of the regular season. Unfortunately, for the Brewers to get the pieces that the Braves did we would have to trade Gomez and Lucroy. Many of us don't think the Brewers would consider that, especially with Lucroy.

[logan82]

In 2008 when we traded for CC I didn't hate the move. I can see how someone would have wanted to trade for a long term alternative instead of a summer rental. Overall though I don't think that move hurt us to much. We had a lot of depth at the time and one or two bad moves wasn't likely t hurt us much.

 

I know I was against the Marcum trade at the time. I think I was 50/50 on the Greinke deal. Those moves gutted our system. We knew they would at the time. From that point till the Garza deal the franchise made some terrible decisions and we are seeing the results over the last few seasons.

 

Starting with the Garza deal I think things have been going in a positive direction. No for the present obviously but for a couple years from now. It would be nice to see a couple more trades made in the next few months to strengthen out MLB club and minor league system. I don't expect much of a team in 2016 but if we can move a few players I think our future looks bright in 2017 and beyond.

[homer]

I was pro Sabathia at the time and in retrospect I would have done it 100 out of 100 times even knowing what Brantley turned into. That summer was electric at MP. I doubt you'll ever see a half season like that again. The guy basically willed the Brewers to the playoffs. something I'll never forget.

[splitterpfj]

I read some of the pre-draft stuff, but not enough to remotely be an expert but I thought this was something of a down year in the draft. Which suggests a rather big tactical swing and a miss to me on the part of the Braves. In the current rule system I love the strategy, but if you don't even have a chance to actually get 2 or more cornerstone players because he talent isn't there that doesn't sound super exciting.

 

Hi Igor. This draft, as a whole, isn't down, but it lacks the true standout guys at the top. Here we are, within a few weeks now, and it's still anybody's guess as to who the very first pick will be, much less locking in the top five or ten. The issue was compounded by an unusually high number of injuries among the kids who are looked at as potential top 10-15 guys this time around.

 

The guy who was picked first overall last year is back in the draft, healing from Tommy John. The guy who may have gone first overall this year is also healing from Tommy John. For example, the Braves may end up with a guy like that, because those players will slide, but if Atlanta believes in them, they could pay them like a higher pick, and come home with talent above their draft position.

[reillymcshane]

I didn't like the Lohse signing at the time mostly because I wasn't sure of what kind of pitcher we were getting. He was good in 2011-12, bad in 2009-10. He was aging, coming to a tougher pitcher's park, leaving a successful club that seems to nurture pitchers well. Even with out the draft pick we gave up, I didn't like the deal. I envisioned Lohse regressing. I also didn't think we were that good. I figured he'd help, but we needed more than just a little help.

 

To Kyle's credit, he did very well the last two years. And while he's struggling now, I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out with an okay year.

 

While I wouldn't have done it, I understand why the Brewers made the move. They saw themselves as contenders. I'd argue fringe contenders (at best), but whatever. The club was in it to be a winner, and adding Lohse helped them toward that goal (although they didn't actually attain that status). In the grand scheme of the club's plans (try and make the playoffs in 2013-15), it made sense. It was part of similar moves - sign A-Ram, sign Garza, sign K-Rod, etc. They are sort of all part of the same package.

[logan82]

If I remember correctly they had an incredibly hot finish to the year just before they signed Lohse. They had a pretty poor year most of the year despite having Greinke to start the year. I think they put too much stock in a hot finish that year.

[SomewhereInTime]

The Sabathia trade, Greinke trade, and Marcum trades were great. Those were talented teams in '08 and '11 and those trades helped make them post-season teams. It's worth the prospects to take a good shot.

 

I wasn't a huge fan of the Lohse signing because of the first round draft pick, but he's been solid, hopefully he's tradeable at the deadline.

 

I've got no problem with signings that don't cost the draft pick like the Ramirez and Garza signings, there may be better ways to spend the money, but it's not my money, and if you end up losing a bunch, they're tradeable assets.

[Bombers]

The worst part about the Greinke trade(s) is how we unloaded so much talent and only got Segura in return. Not surprising though that Doug got fleeced. He seems to always get the bad side in a trade.

 

As for the Sabathia trade and other pitcher related moves, maybe if Doug could actually draft talented pitching we wouldn't have to give up so much. Like drafting Matt LaPorta instead of Madison Bumgarner who went 3 picks after Matt. Once we had already drafted Braun, fielder, weeks why did we continue drafting hitting? And then once we do finally start drafting pitching, Doug whiffs on all the picks outside Jake. 2011 is case and point; we should have drafted Jose Fernandez or Sonny Gray but nope. 2 top 15 picks and nada

[MrTPlush]

The worst part about the Greinke trade(s) is how we unloaded so much talent and only got Segura in return. Not surprising though that Doug got fleeced. He seems to always get the bad side in a trade.

 

How was that a bad return? What did we give the Royals? Jeffress...no lost value. Escobar...pretty comparable to Segura. Odorizzi...a nice asset lost. Cain...alright a little loss here, but he was still a big question mark.

 

Most people I know thought they got a pretty good deal for half a season of a guy who couldn't get a QO. Royals traded 2 years and we only trade 2 months. We got a pretty good return all things considered. Actually most people think he does great in trades.

[3and2Fastball]

The trades themselves, prospects for players, were OK. Sabathia got us into the playoffs. Greinke trade turned out OK. Marcum trade was stupid. Lind trade was fantastic. Aoki for Smith was fantastic. Would've been even better if Smith wasn't abused

 

The biggest mistake the Brewers have made is in signing all these free agents over the age of 30. Lohse, Ramirez, Suppan, Garza. All completely asinine signings that show that either the game has passed Melvin by or that Mark A is a meddling owner playing fantasy Baseball with monopoly money. If none of those signings had taken place and the Brewers had instead invested that money in international signings, the team as a whole would be in much much better shape

[SomewhereInTime]

The worst part about the Greinke trade(s) is how we unloaded so much talent and only got Segura in return. Not surprising though that Doug got fleeced. He seems to always get the bad side in a trade.

 

As for the Sabathia trade and other pitcher related moves, maybe if Doug could actually draft talented pitching we wouldn't have to give up so much. Like drafting Matt LaPorta instead of Madison Bumgarner who went 3 picks after Matt. Once we had already drafted Braun, fielder, weeks why did we continue drafting hitting? And then once we do finally start drafting pitching, Doug whiffs on all the picks outside Jake. 2011 is case and point; we should have drafted Jose Fernandez or Sonny Gray but nope. 2 top 15 picks and nada

 

That's a lot of misinformation.

 

There are reasons to dislike Melvin but his ability to make trades is not one of them. The only real mistake trades I can think of he's made have been late season relief pitcher trades, like the Broxton deal, or Linebrink deal, or Weathers deal.

 

As for the draft it's usually the scouting director calling the shots. I'd blame Bruce Seid before I blame Melvin for poor drafts in recent memory. Why did we continue drafting hitting? Because it's pretty much BPA for the whole draft, that's how you approach a baseball draft.

 

The little what if game you're playing can be done with every team in every sport and every draft, if only we'd have known exactly who to pick. Give me your predictions for this year's draft and lets see if they all turn out to be super stars.

[rwa12]

We suck at developing pitching, it isn't that we haven't drafted talented players, we just haven't done anything with them. I think we're smart to follow Theo's plan in Chicago. Grab as many high level hitters as you can, and trade them for pitching as you need it. Actually, Theo's following Doug's plan (and I'm sure many before him), it's just not considered revolutionary until Theo does it.

[tmwiese55]

I was fine with CC at the time. I think Greinke was a great trade. At the time I didn't like Marcum trade because I thought Lawrie was going to be legit, turns out he's a headcase and that's why they did it, good trade. Overall, the only major trade Melvin has made that was a joke was Carlos Lee to TX. The other ones that can be picked on like Linebrink a Broxton are minor flyers that didn't work out. I was generally against Lohse because of losing the pick but he at least gave us 2 solid seasons and maybe can salvage this one to be ok.

 

The major reason the farm system is in trouble isn't the trades. It is bad, bad drafting and/or development. Would we have a drastically different view of our team right now if we had that Lohse pick, no. Escobar instead of Segura, no. Brantley or Cain instead of Davis, no? Lawrie, no.

[Boomer5]

I was fine with CC at the time. I think Greinke was a great trade. At the time I didn't like Marcum trade because I thought Lawrie was going to be legit, turns out he's a headcase and that's why they did it, good trade. Overall, the only major trade Melvin has made that was a joke was Carlos Lee to TX. The other ones that can be picked on like Linebrink a Broxton are minor flyers that didn't work out. I was generally against Lohse because of losing the pick but he at least gave us 2 solid seasons and maybe can salvage this one to be ok.

 

The major reason the farm system is in trouble isn't the trades. It is bad, bad drafting and/or development. Would we have a drastically different view of our team right now if we had that Lohse pick, no. Escobar instead of Segura, no. Brantley or Cain instead of Davis, no? Lawrie, no.

 

All of the trades except for Marcum and Lee were acceptable at the time they were made.

 

Lee was a forced trade to land ONLY major league assets. They were not in the prospect business then. Sad.

 

I never understood giving up Lawrie for a decent but not great starting pitcher. Then when Lawrie posted a 3.6 WAR in 43 games in 2011, I was about ready to pass out if I saw one more highlight. It was only in the offseason I learned of his absurd off the field behavior, so it became more clear. I still don't think they leveraged his asset value at the time, but ultimately I saw why they got rid of him. Since 2011, he has been a pretty average to bad player. Of course Marcum is long gone too, so it was much to do about nothing.

 

I can't say Im happy Cain and Brantley are gone now, but CC and Grienke were excellent here and served their purpose.

 

Actually, had MLB not valued Tex higher than CC, the Brewers would have wound up with Trout. Yes, I like to beat myself up over the past.

[logan82]

Odorizzi was the big loss in the Greinke trade.

[tmwiese55]

Yea I forgot Ordazzi, point holds true, would we have a different view right now with a mid level SP like him, no. Yes it would be better to have him than not but you have to give something up to get a Cy Young pitcher with 2 years of control left (this isn't a video game). Our minor league system would be the same it is now. Only one of Cain/Brantley would have seen the field in MKE with Gomez and Braun there.