2015-05-19 Brewers (Nelson) at Tigers (Sánchez), 6:08 PM CDT [Brewers win, 8-1]

[The stache]

I don't have any stats to back it up, but wouldn't the fact that nearly all of his HR have been to center or right seem to indicate that while he still has power....he's lost the ability to really turn on a baseball? He crushed that hanging slider in NY, but the only other pitches he seems to drive are on the outer half where he can hit them the other way.

 

I don't know why teams don't just bust him inside pitch after pitch until he shows he can actually do something with it.

 

Because, if he's standing off the plate, and teams pitch him inside, it's a ball, and he can just take it.

 

I'm not so concerned about where the pitches are flying out of the park. They're flying out of the park.

 

At bats per home run:

 

2007 451 AB 34 HR 13.26 AB/HR

2008 611 AB 37 HR 16.51 AB/HR

2009 635 AB 32 HR 19.84 AB/HR

2010 619 AB 25 HR 24.76 AB/HR

2011 563 AB 33 HR 17.06 AB/HR

2012 598 AB 41 HR 14.59 AB/HR

2013 225 AB 09 HR 25.00 AB/HR

2014 530 AB 19 HR 27.90 AB/HR

2015 135 AB 09 HR 15.00 AB/HR

 

Right now, Ryan Braun has the third highest home run frequency of his career. But, where is he hitting them? I think this is interesting.

 

I looked at five of his seasons. His rookie year of 2007, his MVP season of 2011, his 2012 season where he was MVP runner up, his 2014 season where he was injured, and this season.

 

2007: 34 home runs

left: 16 home runs

left-center: 8 home runs

center: 4 home runs

right-center: 2 home runs

right: 4 home runs

 

2011: 33 home runs. National League MVP

left: 4 home runs

left-center: 13 home runs

center: 4 home runs

right-center: 7 home runs

right: 5 home runs

 

2012: 41 home runs. National League MVP runner-up

left: 11 home runs

left-center: 8 home runs

center: 10 home runs

right-center: 7 home runs

right: 5 home runs

 

2014: 19 home runs

left: 6 home runs

left-center: 3 home runs

center: 2 home runs

right-center: 4 home runs

right: 4 home runs

 

2015: 9 home runs through May 19th

left: 1 home run

left-center: 1 home run

center: 2 home runs

right-center: 1 home run

right: 4 home runs

 

Now, what this means long term remains to be seen. But here's what this analysis shows. As a rookie in 2007, Ryan Braun hit a whopping 70.6% of his home runs to either left field, or left-center field. Only 17.6% of his home runs went to right-center or right field.

 

In 2011 and 2012, his two best seasons overall, he combined to hit 74 home runs. Of those, 15 went to left field, 21 went to left-center, 14 went to center field, 14 went to right-center field, and 10 went to right field. This means that 48.6% of his home runs went to left field, or left-center field, down from 70.6% as a rookie. 32.4% of his home runs went to right-center field, or right field, up from only 17.6% in his rookie season.

 

In 2014, Braun's spray chart was the most balanced of his career. He only hit 19 home runs, but 9 went to either left field or left-center, and 8 went to either right field, or right-center.

 

Now, compare where he's hitting them in 2015. Of his nine home runs thus far, 2 have been to left field or left-center. That's 22.2%. 5 of his 9 home runs have gone to right, or right-center, 55.6%.

 

What does all this mean yet? I don't know. Though he didn't hit a lot of home runs last year, it's clear that those 19 were getting hit to all different parts of the ball park, and unlike his rookie season, where 7 of every 10 home runs was going to left or left-center field, Ryan Braun has clearly learned to use the entire field. And, that has made him a much more complete offensive threat.

 

I'm not ready to declare that Braun is now an opposite field home run hitter. You can't make a statement based off of 9 home runs. Point in case. In 2012, when he hit a career high 41 home runs, of his first 9 home runs, only one went to right or right-center field. All the others went to center field (2), left-center (3), or left (3). Of his last 32 home runs, 12, or 37.5%, went to right-center or right field.

 

Here's one more thing to consider, unrelated to Braun's home run chart. His BAbip is only .272. His career BAbip is .335. He's had some terrible luck with the balls he's put into play. We know he's hitting the ball hard. Simple math tells us that some of these balls coming off of Ryan Braun's bat, that have been outs until now, are going to start falling for extra bases. That means his average is going to rise. His doubles and triples are going to rise. His ISO and his WAR is going to rise.

 

Ryan Braun has been unlucky thus far. He's starting to turn that around. It's too early to declare Braun is back yet, but these last twenty games, which are more than just a small sample, are a great indication of where a player is going.