Garza to the Red Sox?

[nate82]

With the Red Sox scuffling especially their starting pitchers this makes sense for the Red Sox it gives them another mid rotation starter and will not cost as much in terms of prospects like it would in trading for Hamels.

 

Brewers get:

3B/1B Rafael Devers

LHP Trey Ball

 

Red Sox get:

Matt Garza and $5m

 

Ball is a work in progress but he could become a middle of the rotation starter while Devers looks to be a really good offensive player but I am not sure he will stick at 3B he may have to move over to 1B at some point. Defensively Devers reminds me of Sandoval. The Red Sox have a lot of good positional players in the minors so losing Devers wouldn't hurt as much as losing Swihart would.

[MrTPlush]

From what it sounds like I don't think we are getting a Top 100 prospect for Garza if we trade him. We would have to add more than $5mil and he would have to pitch much better.

[brewcrewdue80]

Garza to Boston is a fit in my opinion. Devers would be a nice get too. I'm not sold on Ball. If I recall, he was ranked higher as a batter than he was a pitcher and he was the one who took the stance he was going to be a pitcher if he signed. I'd rather the Brewers went after Michael Kopech Boston's 1st rd pick last season. I think I liked what I saw in him in video and he's the kind of low A young HS arm to add to the minors. Just like Devers.

 

Again, as to the Garza not netting a top 100 prospect...Puhleeze! He's on a 4 game Quality Start run. This was a man who as a rental brought the Cubs: CJ edwards, Mike Olt, Justin Grimm, and Neil Ramirez. As a Rental! Garza's contract alone is worth something. It's amazing, and should be a ML contract requirement in FA the option clause. He was also signed cheaper than expected. Who would you rather have? Garza or Rick Porcello? Garza is making less than half what the Red Sox are paying Porcello. For essentially the same results.

 

The Red Sox should be so lucky to only have to part with Devers/Ball or Kopech and keeping the top of the highly regarded prospects. And forget money. The Brewers could take Justin Masterson from them to get through this season and solving a Red Sox problem.

[MrTPlush]

All I am saying is not many in the business are sold on Garza being very tradable...or valuable for that matter. I will stick with the professional position for now.

[pacopete4]

All I am saying is not many in the business are sold on Garza being very tradable...or valuable for that matter. I will stick with the professional position for now.

 

 

We really do not know what GM's think and we probably won't know. All we hear are some beat reporters opinions. And if these beat reporters are hearing that from GMs it could easily be GM speak trying to down play any interest which is a very smart move. Never seem desperate for someone. Drives the price up and you compete against yourself.

[Austin Tatious]

I feel like there are some, certainly not all, Brewer fans with defeatist attitudes toward the values of Brewer assets as compared with assets of big market clubs. The national media has always been locked into the likes of the Redsox, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Angels, etc. In the media and public, their assets are inflated and Brewer assets are under appreciated.

 

But, look at what the Brewers got for Greinke on a rental. Solid. Look what they got for Gallardo for one year. A top 100 guy at a premium position in Sardinas and high draft pick with a power arm in Knebel plus a lottery ticket in Diplan.

 

Garza is not old and his contract is not onerous. He is a middle of the pack starter with a bulldog attitude. Teams trying to compete need tough starters who will battle. His contract is going rate. He had a few rocky starts. Big deal. General managers realize veterans have some ups and downs but Garza has a track record. Last year, he started cranking and got on a roll. We are seeing signs of that again. He's, what, 31? C'mon.

 

I'm confident that Melvin is not giving Garza away. A team trying to contend will have to give back some good prospects to get him. The package for Gallardo is in the zone of what I'd expect. Garza is older but under longer control. It could be an interesting negotiation. Time will tell but I have hopes.

[JohnBriggs12]

All I am saying is not many in the business are sold on Garza being very tradable...or valuable for that matter. I will stick with the professional position for now.

 

You've been paying too much attention to the opinions on mlbtraderumors site who for no apparent reason are down on him. Garza's the exact same guy he's always been and that's a solid mid rotation starter. He's not a dominant guy, but he's posted 4 straight quality starts and he's under contract for next year too at what these days is fairly reasonable terms. Any big market team that fancies itself as a contender that finds itself in a bind for a starter will be interested.

 

Value? Well Boston got Joe Kelly AND Allen Craig for John Lackey (who's older and more expensive than Garza) last year. Kelly's struggled recently but I'd take him. Nobody saw Craig falling off a cliff.

[MrTPlush]

All I am saying is not many in the business are sold on Garza being very tradable...or valuable for that matter. I will stick with the professional position for now.

 

You've been paying too much attention to the opinions on mlbtraderumors site who for no apparent reason are down on him. Garza's the exact same guy he's always been and that's a solid mid rotation starter. He's not a dominant guy, but he's posted 4 straight quality starts and he's under contract for next year too at what these days is fairly reasonable terms. Any big market team that fancies itself as a contender that finds itself in a bind for a starter will be interested.

 

Value? Well Boston got Joe Kelly AND Allen Craig for John Lackey (who's older and more expensive than Garza) last year. Kelly's struggled recently but I'd take him. Nobody saw Craig falling off a cliff.

 

The value on Garza is just a huge question mark. He is not all that young, comes with injury risk(though we have yet to see a major injury in his Brewers contract), and isn't all that cheap. By no means is he expensive, but near market value doesn't help his trade value. I surely wouldn't trade him for less than a Top 100 prospect as I think he is worth it, but then again it doesn't really matter what I think. Like you stated there is always a ton of desperation for mid rotation starters every year. There definitely should be some desperate teams on the prowl.

 

As for the Red Sox trade I am pretty sure most agreed it was a bad deal for the Sox from the get go. They got Joe Kelly who is about to hit arbitration not to mention not that great anyway and an expensive Allen Craig who fell of the cliff last year. Quite sad they got that for a solid starter making $1mil this year.

[Roderick]

I'm confident that Melvin is not giving Garza away.

 

I would assume not.

 

I would assume Lohse is traded off for whoever gives them the most salary relief. Which means they already will be in the market for another free agent pitcher next year unless Thornburg shines when given that spot.

 

Plus you still have to see if Nelson and Fiers deserve a spot in the rotation next year.

 

I doubt Melvin wants to try and fill more than one rotation spot considering his lack of starting pitching options on the farm. It's okay to have Jungmann as a second or third option as a rotational filler, but I wouldn't want to rely on throwing him out there 32 times next year unless the Brewers have a fire sale this year.

[monty57]

I'm confident that Melvin is not giving Garza away.

 

I would assume not.

 

I would assume Lohse is traded off for whoever gives them the most salary relief. Which means they already will be in the market for another free agent pitcher next year unless Thornburg shines when given that spot.

 

Plus you still have to see if Nelson and Fiers deserve a spot in the rotation next year.

 

I doubt Melvin wants to try and fill more than one rotation spot considering his lack of starting pitching options on the farm. It's okay to have Jungmann as a second or third option as a rotational filler, but I wouldn't want to rely on throwing him out there 32 times next year unless the Brewers have a fire sale this year.

 

This is why I feel that if the Brewers trade Garza they will go into "full rebuild" mode. There is no way they are going to pretend to go for it if they lose both Lohse and Garza from the rotation. If they hold on to Garza, they'll probably throw a little more duck tape on the jalopy (sign someone like Uribe to play 3B and another 35-year-old SP for the rotation) and tell the fans we're shooting for the playoffs in 2016. When it doesn't work, they'll look to trade Gomez a few months before he hits free agency next year.

[reillymcshane]

A few weeks ago, most people would have been really wary of trading for Garza. He just looked bad - serving up taters and passing out walks - and then add in a declining K rate and a long term contract - it would have been hard to justify giving up much for the guy. However, he's gradually overcome the early poor starts and is starting to resemble the pitcher we had last season - a solid, middle of the pack starter (note that he had a slow start last year - he produced ERAs of 5.00 and 4.65 in April and May before coming around in June).

 

For reference, the average NL starter has an ERA of 3.97 this year. In 2014, it was 3.74. Garza's ERA the past two years is 4.04 and 3.64, respectively.

 

There's value in what Garza has done - and what he will likely do going forward. The key is finding the right buyer - a club that wants a solid, (mostly) reliable pitcher, who's not that old (31), for the next 2.5 years. It's all about finding someone at the right time and situation. For some teams, the 2.5 years will be a detriment. For others, it's potentially a positive. It's finding the right situation.

 

All that said, $12.5M for a middle of the pack starter isn't cheap (it's not that expensive either). And Garza has had some injuries over the years that might make someone take pause. I think we can get something decent for him, just how much is another good guess. If Garza can put together a few more good starts (lower the walk rate a bit, up the K rate a bit, lower the ERA a bit), I wouldn't be shocked if we could get a fringy Top 100 type prospect. Like with all these trade ideas, I just hope we look for a player(s) with decent upside. If that means dipping down into the lower levels of the minors, then so be it. I don't want a guy who profiles as a back up infielder - but we take him because he's 'major league ready'.

 

We also have to remember we can wait with Garza. If not one is offering what we want, he'll still be worht something this off season (assuming he pitches okay). No one is holding a gun to our head, forcing us to make a deal. The team just needs to wait for the right offer.

[MrTPlush]

I think it is a bit more realistic that his deal is for 3.5 years. There is a somewhat plausible chance his $13mil option vests and if that doesn't vest I would imagine any team is picking up the $5mil option unless he falls off a cliff. There is also the possible $1mil option...but that would mean missing nearly a year.

 

A lot of variables a team needs to consider when trading for Garza.

[reillymcshane]

I think it is a bit more realistic that his deal is for 3.5 years. There is a somewhat plausible chance his $13mil option vests and if that doesn't vest I would imagine any team is picking up the $5mil option unless he falls off a cliff. There is also the possible $1mil option...but that would mean missing nearly a year.

 

A lot of variables a team needs to consider when trading for Garza.

Thank you. I didn't know the details of the option. I found it all here: http://www.brewcrewball.com/2014/1/28/5354550/matt-garza-contract-details-Brewers

 

I'm probably inclined to think the option is more a hindrance than a help, but that's just a guess.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think the deal is a plus. Already he's missed about 6 Games you figure on a 33 avg per season. So from 132 he's at 126. 17 starts more missed over these 3seasons means his option is only 5mil. If you're trading for him, youre trading for a Pitcher to be on the mound. Any 60 day DL stint will pretty much put that guarantee that option at 5mil. I'm sure 8mil over these 2+seasons would gladly be forked over if it meant your team would make the playoffs in just 1 season. We acquired Broxton under that impression taking on his salary of over that amount.

 

And as Reilly put it, his start is just about average still for an NL starter(thanks Lohse/Kershaw) for that likely almost between them two alone!

While Garza had that 3.74ERA last season, it's like I put it, he was unlucky having 5 or 6 runs I believe allowed to score maybe even more. I think his ERA had they not been allowed to score(Kintzler most culprit) it would have been 3.35 ish. I know I figured it out one day and posted it here but not going to redo that.

He's better than the ERA tells. It's been dropping and it won't take all that much for it to drop to 3.5. Only 2ER in next 11.2IP would set him at 3.5. And he pitches at Pitcher friendly Mets/Braves his next two starts. It's well within reason he could be leaving after the next 2 starts with a 3.4-3.6ERA type era and suddenly he's well worth investing in.

[MrTPlush]

It is easy to say it will likely be good and almost likely be $5mil...but it could also easily become one brutal $13mil burden.

 

What if he stays healthy and his velocity drops with age causing him to become a 4.50 ERA+ pitcher? That is a big gamble to assume he will miss enough starts to not get it to vest. He only needs to average 27.5 starts for that to happen.

[monty57]

We acquired Broxton under that impression taking on his salary of over that amount.

 

I would be wary of using our acquisition of Broxton as an example of why something is a "plus." :-)

 

I think the debate here is likely what's going on in other GM's offices. Some probably see him and his contract as a positive addition while some will see him and his contract as something to steer clear of. Good for the Brewers that if they decide to trade him they only need to get one GM/owner on a playoff hopeful team to see Garza as a good acquisition.

[bill hAll Star]

It is easy to say it will likely be good and almost likely be $5mil...but it could also easily become one brutal $13mil burden.

 

What if he stays healthy and his velocity drops with age causing him to become a 4.50 ERA+ pitcher? That is a big gamble to assume he will miss enough starts to not get it to vest. He only needs to average 27.5 starts for that to happen.

 

That's the risk any team takes on when they sign a pitcher, though.

 

At his age, let's say he finished off the season (or hit the trade deadline) as a ~4 FIP guy as he mostly has been in his career.

 

If, in theory, if he was a free agent pitcher this offseason, you don't think a team would sign him 2/$25 with a $13 mil option that is likely to vest? Most guys around 31 years old and a 4ish FIP sign four year deals.

 

(OK, I got lazy on the last one as he went for 3 years).

 

It would have to be a team like the Dodgers that just completely doesn't care about the money or a team that wants to improve this year and have a nice piece on a fair contract going forward.

 

Astros?

Mariners?

Red Sox?

Maybe the Yankees?

Giants (probably not but it's possible with Hudson and co. on their way out)?

Angels?

O's if their patience wears thin with Norris/Tillman.

Blue Jays if their patience wears thin with their younger guys.

Mets or Marlins have a good enough influx of minors guys but maybe want to have him replace Colon or Haren respectively to slot as the #5 veteran that holds a spot while their younger studs rotate who is having Tommy John.

Cubs? (OK, bridges probably burned there).

Tigers have completely depleted their farm system of arms (so not sure who they'd give back) but they are relying on some C or D level MLB prospects to fill the back of their rotation like Shane Greene and Lobstein.

 

Maybe if Cleveland gets back in it they may listen. D-Backs may listen if they're hanging around.

[LouisEly]

It is easy to say it will likely be good and almost likely be $5mil...but it could also easily become one brutal $13mil burden.

 

What if he stays healthy and his velocity drops with age causing him to become a 4.50 ERA+ pitcher? That is a big gamble to assume he will miss enough starts to not get it to vest. He only needs to average 27.5 starts for that to happen.

Porcello has a career ERA of 4.30 (Garza's is 3.80) and K/9 of 5.6 (Garza's is 7.5) and Porcello got 6 years, $115M.

 

If you want younger than Garza, it will cost $100M or you're rolling dice on a guy off of the scrap heap. Garza's remaining contract is very low risk, especially for an up-and-coming team that is expecting to compete for the next 2-3 years.

[trwi7]

Porcello got 6 years, $115M.

 

Why do you keep saying this? He got 4/82 and he's only 26 and improved each of the last three years he was pitching.

[bill hAll Star]

I kinda see it as in-between what you guys do.

 

They knowingly traded for him on a 1 year, $12.5 million deal for 2015 and then extended that by 4/$82.

 

So, in theory, they acquired him and turned the contract into just short of 5/$95.

[reillymcshane]

Jon Heyman says the Brewers are interested in moving Garza:

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25186170/inside-baseball-tulo-needs-to-go-and-here-are-the-options-plus-mlb-news

 

"The Brewers are playing better under Craig Counsell, but they still look like a likely seller. Kyle Lohse, a free agent after the year, is a natural to go (though they love him as a clubhouse guy). The team also seems especially interested in moving Matt Garza, rivals report, and Garza has two more years left."

[MrTPlush]

Rick Porcello is either nothing like Matt Garza or such an outlier that he really shouldn't be in this conversation.

[LouisEly]

Porcello got 6 years, $115M.

 

Why do you keep saying this? He got 4/82 and he's only 26 and improved each of the last three years he was pitching.

 

Copied directly from BR.com:

 

2015 26 Boston Red Sox $12,500,000 5.170

 

2016 27 Boston Red Sox $20,125,000

2017 28 Boston Red Sox $20,125,000

2018 29 Boston Red Sox $21,125,000

2019 30 Boston Red Sox $21,125,000

30 Boston Red Sox $21,125,000

Earliest Free Agent: 2020

Career to date (may be incomplete) $36,231,000 Does not include future salaries ($103.6M)

[Kelbysdaddy]

The deal boston gave porcello is absolutely,incredibly,unbelievably insane. It make no sense at all. Imagine what Jordan Zimmerman will get next year if that is used as a benchmark.

[nate82]

I would rather get a soon to be top 100 player who has the potential to be a top 10 player than just get a top 100 player in a trade. Take Appel for example former #1 pick and his ceiling is that of a #3 who is also ranked in the top 10 currently. I am sorry but if the Astros said hey you can have Appel for Garza and the Red Sox said you could have the deal I posted earlier I would take the Red Sox deal every time.

 

Top 100 players are for fans to go oooh and aaahhh over kind of like fireworks they go boom and bang and then they are gone. I would rather trade on potential than some silly top 100 prospect ranking which has so many flaws and has a near 100% bias on how prospects are ranked.

 

Let me ask you this would you trade Garza for Lara today or even Garza for Arcia last year?