Clint Coulter

[igor67]

So within the last week Baseball prospectus ran a little feature http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26253

The whole point of which was to take a look at fringe prospects, as in players who get less attention. They did one from each team focusing on Coulter, which struck me as an odd choice, but on the larger prospect stage he certainly gets less ink than other guys. The more surprising thing was that he rated out currently as a platoon bat, with a ceiling of an average OFer. I couldn't recall anyone being that critical of him before. They stated that his platoon split was unusually large, but in both of the last 2 years there is about a 100 point spread in OPS which is not unusually high for a guy who is posting .900+ OPS. I was inclined to let that go but yesterday's chat was also dismissive of him as a prospect.

Are we missing some actual flaw in his game? I mostly think the BP guys are ridiculously wrong here, but thought I'd toss it out for discussion

[TheCrew07]

I don't really have more to add than what I've said about him previously but I guess I can reiterate it since I've likely watched him more than most.

 

He's not as athletic as some would lead us to believe, he's average, maybe a tick above for a professional athlete but he does have a strong arm. I don't have any personal observations regarding his OF play, though I was hoping he could be a 3B since I knew catching wasn't in his future, but he was so bad there in instructs the Brewers immediately moved him to the OF. So I can see where he'd be viewed as a guy without a position, but we're still very early on in this OF transition.

 

At the plate with last year's approach I thought he was in that .230-240 range for AVE as a MLB player, he needed to make adjustments to be more than that as he swung through way too many hittable fastballs, but best case he could be .280+ guy if he would continue to improve. Every coach or person who's been interviewed about him has raved about his work ethic in the past, so I think there's legitimate reason to dream on him a bit. The power is absolutely for real, I have no doubts in that regard.

 

I think that when you get publications who are doing mostly statistical analysis based on very limited scouting opinions/observations it's easy to be dismissive, especially when a system has a negative reputation. I ignore a player's inaugural campaign by default and I'd just throw out his 2013, I don't think it's relevant at this juncture, he's a completely player at the plate in just 2 years. His platoon split for 2015 is currently exactly the opposite as it was in 2014, so I'd call any platoon split analysis on so few ABs as misguided at best and lazy at worst.

 

Am I fully on his bandwagon as a prospect like I am for say Orlando Arcia? No, but then again I'm much tougher on prospects than many, I'm not certain of anything regarding Clint other than his power is for real. As to the rest of his game, there are still too many moving variables for me to definitively nail an accurate prediction of his future. There are very few players in the Brewers system whom I'd be confident predicting as MLB players and their ultimate role, it's much tougher to do when most of your prospects are in the C-B range on Sickels' grading system. If you have a Tyler Glasnow or Kris Bryant... well those young men are easy.

[igor67]

It's not too hard to say that any A-ball player could end up a platoon guy (plenty have over the years), as you said you tend to be very sober in your prospect analysis and I just couldn't figure out where the scouting angle was coming from because it is so qualitatively different from what we see other places, and the numbers don't really back it up either. Now if they had written that up for Roache it would have seemed a lot closer to the mark.

[MrTPlush]

I would say Khris Davis is a nice ceiling comparison...so a 2 WAR player.

 

His defense doesn't figure to ever be very good which limits quite a bit of value...though playing RF would be a plus. That really leaves his offense to give him all the value he will provide. The article actually says he has a ceiling of a 2nd tier RF which I would say is pretty accurate.

 

I do think Brewers fans overrate him to a certain degree.

[TheCrew07]

I would say Khris Davis is a nice ceiling comparison...so a 2 WAR player.

 

His defense doesn't figure to ever be very good which limits quite a bit of value...though playing RF would be a plus. That really leaves his offense to give him all the value he will provide. The article actually says he has a ceiling of a 2nd tier RF which I would say is pretty accurate.

 

I do think Brewers fans overrate him to a certain degree.

 

I have no doubt he's overrated by some, that's true of any player in the entire Brewer system, even on the MLB team.

 

They provided no supporting evidence other than his splits and for all we know the entire premise could have been based on the opinion of a single scout, or maybe no scouts opinions other than Jordan Gorosh which may be based on the viewing of a maybe a single series of games, and he's no more reputable than I am.

 

I think Coulter's offensive floor is that of Kris Davis, but that's not his ceiling. As I said he needs work on his mechanics and all hitters need work on pitch recognition which is why I'm always worried about any position player hitting "enough" once they get to the bigs. For some reason I just can't get past that fear, not even with guys like Braun and Fielder who I was certain of, I still had that apprehension.

[SRB]

Coulter is a first round pick who put up a .930 OPS season followed now by a 1.034 OPS season so far, that's all I need to know to know he's a legit prospect.

 

As fans we need to try to piece together different clues to figure out how the actual professional scouting departments value him (i.e. not just fan-oriented publications), and in that respect the fact that Coulter is a first-round pick and someone like Khris Davis was a seventh-round pick makes a huge difference. Every single team passed on Davis 6+ times, so even if he tears up minor league pitching that says something about his tools and ultimate ceiling.

[MrTPlush]

Coulter is a first round pick who put up a .930 OPS season followed now by a 1.034 OPS season so far, that's all I need to know to know he's a legit prospect.

 

As fans we need to try to piece together different clues to figure out how the actual professional scouting departments value him (i.e. not just fan-oriented publications), and in that respect the fact that Coulter is a first-round pick and someone like Khris Davis was a seventh-round pick makes a huge difference. Every single team passed on Davis 6+ times, so even if he tears up minor league pitching that says something about his tools and ultimate ceiling.

 

Except for the fact Coulter was drafted as a catcher and intended to be used that way. He had enormous value as a possible .270 and 20+ homer Catcher...as an iffy defense corner OFer...not so much.

[igor67]

I guess I see Coulter's ceiling more like Jeromy Burnitz/ Corey Hart with numbers adjusted for the current era. Not a great average hitter, but with enough power and patience to post some very good OPS' but has a relatively short peak at that rate with a number of other solid seasons.

[SRB]

Coulter is a first round pick who put up a .930 OPS season followed now by a 1.034 OPS season so far, that's all I need to know to know he's a legit prospect.

 

As fans we need to try to piece together different clues to figure out how the actual professional scouting departments value him (i.e. not just fan-oriented publications), and in that respect the fact that Coulter is a first-round pick and someone like Khris Davis was a seventh-round pick makes a huge difference. Every single team passed on Davis 6+ times, so even if he tears up minor league pitching that says something about his tools and ultimate ceiling.

 

Except for the fact Coulter was drafted as a catcher and intended to be used that way. He had enormous value as a possible .270 and 20+ homer Catcher...as an iffy defense corner OFer...not so much.

 

Yeah, somebody like Hunter Pence has no value. [sarcasm]Wish we could get that Coulter pick back![/sarcasm]

[MrTPlush]

Coulter is a first round pick who put up a .930 OPS season followed now by a 1.034 OPS season so far, that's all I need to know to know he's a legit prospect.

 

As fans we need to try to piece together different clues to figure out how the actual professional scouting departments value him (i.e. not just fan-oriented publications), and in that respect the fact that Coulter is a first-round pick and someone like Khris Davis was a seventh-round pick makes a huge difference. Every single team passed on Davis 6+ times, so even if he tears up minor league pitching that says something about his tools and ultimate ceiling.

 

Except for the fact Coulter was drafted as a catcher and intended to be used that way. He had enormous value as a possible .270 and 20+ homer Catcher...as an iffy defense corner OFer...not so much.

 

 

 

Yeah, somebody like Hunter Pence has no value. [sarcasm]Wish we could get that Coulter pick back![/sarcasm]

 

Yes because I totally said that...

 

Clint Coulter has value...just not the enormous value he had that made him a 1st round pick. I am sure Clint Coulter would have dropped a lot if teams knew he couldn't catch...however most scouting reports were confident he could catch.

[Jenkins5]

I think it is very unfair for them to write him off so much as a prospect. He has made great strides with his approach at the plate and not to mention how much more time he has to work on his offensive game now he is no behind the plate. He has hit 4 good average, great power, and takes walks. He is only 21 and that includes his lost season 2 years ago where he just never was healthy, was overmatched at A and wasn't on field enough to find a grove.

 

He isn't even in AA yet and he has made strides every season

[homer]

I get that he had much more value as a catcher, but I also think his ceiling is higher than 22 homers.

[JohnBriggs12]

His strikeout rate to walk ratio and OBP is that of a complete offensive player. He makes a lot better contact than most of the premier power prospects in baseball. He already has 4 outfield assists so he has the arm to stay in RF. His ceiling is higher than Burnitz' was at a similar stage. I think he's takes over for Braun in RF a couple months into 2017 season with Braun moving to 1B and will make the biggest offensive impact of any Brewer rookie since Braun 10 years earlier.

[Jenkins5]

His strikeout rate to walk ratio and OBP is that of a complete offensive player. He makes a lot better contact than most of the premier power prospects in baseball. He already has 4 outfield assists so he has the arm to stay in RF. His ceiling is higher than Burnitz' was at a similar stage.

 

Agree. Forgotten fact in this is look where he is doing his damage! BC is pretty anti hitter park and he is hitting .333 at home with a mere .733 slugging % that takes some true power! He isn't doing this in high dessert or Colorado Springs. He is only 3-18 vs lefties with 2 hrs and a double I believe to go with like 8 walks. So yeah I'd like to see him hit a little better vs them but I agree his floor is Davis his Ceiling through is solid .260-280 hitter I believe who can crank out 30+ hrs with 80-100 RBIs

 

Corey hart is a very fair ceiling IMO. Borderline all-star core of the team type guy

[splitterpfj]

When the Brewers took Coulter, they said he had power in his bat, and a strong arm - those are his strengths.

 

They tried him at catcher, which didn't work, so they've moved him to right field - ok, take it from there.

 

This is a very young player who isn't even out of A-ball yet, learning and growing are what the minor leagues are for - relax, and let the young man do his work. The idea is to maximize his strengths - get the most out of what he does best, and work on the rest. He's in right field, because he can throw - now work on reading the ball off the bat, etc.

 

Coulter's ticket is hitting for power, that's why the Brewers wanted him. Don't assume you know he'll be a 20 homer guy, or a 25 homer guy, etc - you don't know, he's still working, and at his age, that's not a problem. Maybe he keeps getting better and he's a 30 homer guy, maybe advanced pitchers find something they can exploit and he's a 20 homer guy, prone to streaks and slumps - we don't know yet.

 

Right now, there's nothing that says Coulter can't be a perennial 25 homer type, with league average defense at his position - OH, to have a lineup full of such problems!

 

You have to let the young guys play before you write about, "always", and "never" - there are two full steps ahead of where Coulter is, still in the minor leagues, before we even talk about Milwaukee, and he's still a very young man - let him play, and be a fan, he's a good prospect who may very well help your favorite team win ballgames.

[TheCrew07]

I just wanted to add that being a 1st round pick has nothing do with ultimate ceiling. For example the 2 of 3 players the Brewers acquired for Lyle Overbay were 1st round picks. Gabe Gross was the 15th overall selection and his standout tools were his arm and his power but he could never hit enough to take advantage of his power. Jach Jackson was the 32nd overall and he was average across the board from his FB to his secondary stuff, I was surprised to see that he's still toiling away, now in Indy ball at 32 years old.

 

Different teams will pick players for different reasons, there were a bunch of teams that adopted the Moneyball philosophy of drafting players on likely hood of reaching the Majors rather than the players ultimate ceiling. The Cardinals still do that focusing more on polish than ceiling early but they are also willing to take changes on players late in the draft and on the international market which has worked out tremendously for them. Well out of a notable drunken driving incident.

 

I'd like a good mix of talent; 2-3 pitchers with significant upside, the same with hitters, and then a bunch of good baseball players, as well as a fair number of polished players as well.

[MrTPlush]

I agree the article is pretty critical on a fairly young guy in A-Ball, but his splits are a valid concern. His splits at A-Ball were scary bad the last two years. Not a great sign when even guys like Scooter Gennett put up decent splits back at that level. He will probably have to prove himself at AA before people really start to tout him a little more. Hard to really gauge a guy who in two years in Wisconsin struggled for a .250 AVG. vs. RHP, but now promoted to Brevard is mashing .370 vs. RHP

 

I like the ceiling of Corey Hart and I think his floor is a 3.5 OFer. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up struggling vs. RHP and becomes a fringe starter. Something between Hart and Davis would be a realistic expectation if you really believe in him. The quote in the article stating him as "probably a bench bat" is pretty negative. It is like he is already being labeled a Jason Rogers type guy.

[jerichoholicninja]

I was curious about all this talk about being worried about his splits so I had to look them up.

 

In 2015

1.112 vs RHP

.848 vs LHP

 

In 2014

.903 OPS vs RHP

1.019 OPS vs LHP

 

In 2013

.730 vs RHP

.661 vs LHP

 

In 2012

.846 vs RHP

1.001 vs LHP

 

2013 was clearly a down year all around but those numbers are great no matter who he's hitting against.

[TheCrew07]

I agree the article is pretty critical on a fairly young guy in A-Ball, but his splits are a valid concern. His splits at A-Ball were scary bad the last two years.

 

Again what's scary about a .903 OPS against RHP as a 20 year in A ball for 2014? It would be different if his RHP split was down in the low .800s, but it's not.

 

Also, as I've said numerous times already in this thread you can just throw out his 2013 where he was completely overmatched. He was a different player last year and has gotten better again for 2015.

 

Once again this highlights the folly of pure statistical analysis when it comes to prospects. Young players especially can be completely different players from 1 year to the next, which is admittedly part of the fun of following prospects in the first place. You're always hoping for the Coulter/Arcia jump up in production, sometimes it happens, most of the time of it doesn't. But Clint Coulter from 2013 has nothing to do with Coulter in 2015, the difference if you had watched him hit was that dramatic.

 

Please let the split thing go.

[WV Brew]

Coulter is a much better hitter than Corey Hart was at this stage. Check the numbers.

[Jenkins5]

Cory Hart also had High Desert helping in A+ but what Cory did at AA was pretty impressive and got him league MVP

[igor67]

The original comment on the 'splits' strikes me not as being about the writer being too into scouting by numbers, instead it is either just a mistake (got the wrong data/ scouting report from someone) or they don't actually have any idea what a reasonable platoon split is. It was also rather questionable because from the get go he was a bat first prospect, and from the get go there were questions about whether or not he'd stick at catcher, but he still had a bat that would play elsewhere.

[MrTPlush]

Again what's scary about a .903 OPS against RHP as a 20 year in A ball for 2014? It would be different if his RHP split was down in the low .800s, but it's not.

 

 

Please let the split thing go.

 

Pretty clear I was talking about his batting average. He has struggled quite a bit vs. RHP the past two years. Maybe it is fluky because like mentioned the power numbers are there still. His struggles with breaking pitches and his batting average split are still a concern though. Could be a nasty combination that causes him to hit a wall when he gets to AA. Dominating A+ isn't really anything to brag about or Single A...will be exciting to see how he fairs at AA.

[WV Brew]

At High Desert Corey Hart had .928 OPS, 9th in the league. League average: .739

Coulter this year: 1.062 OPS, 1st in the league. League average: .657

 

Hart was .809 in 2003 at Huntsville, good for 22nd in the Southern League. The comparison is not a good one. I understand that Clint has to keep this up for the whole year, which will be difficult.

[MrTPlush]

At High Desert Corey Hart had .928 OPS, 9th in the league. League average: .739

Coulter this year: 1.062 OPS, 1st in the league. League average: .657

 

Hart was .809 in 2003 at Huntsville, good for 22nd in the Southern League. The comparison is not a good one. I understand that Clint has to keep this up for the whole year, which will be difficult.

 

Corey Hart was 20 when he debuted at AA. Coulter !IF! he keeps it up will make it there a full year later...Coulter also played at A+ two years(part of the first was in Helena).

 

Probably should be taken into consideration a little bit...not that comparing two people in the minor leagues is even a good idea.