Lind to Pirates?

[nate82]

 

By Mike Oz

February 21, 2014 2:38 PM

But since Montero arrived in Seattle, it's been disappointment after disappointment. That culminated this week when — according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times — Montero arrived at Mariners camp 40 pounds heavier than his target weight.

 

What's more? Montero is coming off a 2013 season that ended with a PED suspension as part of MLB's Biogenesis scandal. A number of players are trying to make amends this season because of that, but Montero thus far has flopped the hardest.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/jesus-montero-arrives-at-mariners-camp-40-pounds-overweight-after-ped-suspension-193833974.html

 

Yes in 2014 he came in overweight but if you read the article that I linked to you will see that he came in in shape this year and it looks as though Jack Z has regained some faith in him.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Montero is hitting pretty well right now but nearly 2 seasons of lind is worth more than him. I still can't believe we got him for Estrada. Edwin Diaz and Patrick Kivlehan are who should be targeted for a rebuild. Ryan Yarbrough would be great also (brewers drafted him in 2013 but he didn't sign).

[brewcrewdue80]

What is Montero's future position? 1b? This is a former PED user mind you already caught. Does the team need to go that route? His numbers look nice if he were a Catcher like when he was on PED's and a top 10 prospect at....but 1b? I feel his upside would be to reach .800OPS 20HRs at .280/.340 Jason Rogers would appear to have a higher upside with the Bat for 1b.

 

Lind is on his way to a 4WAR if not better season. At a 1b position that is weak in all of Baseball. Only owed 8mil next season. That's cheap for his production. Toronto mis-stepped on trading him away for just Estrada, but they're a team that for Lind's 1b/DH position with Encarnacion/Bautista using up many of those lineups in game(interleagues Lind is out always for Encarnacion) And then add that he was limited to less than 100games in 2 of the last 3 seasons. With the stats of being a platoon LHB. Makes sense at 7.5mil to trade him away for a cheaper Swingman and replace with cheaper 1b option in Smoak.

 

I'd wonder about Miami or Houston at this point with Boston as team's who decide to look to improve their 1b situation. Boston just sent down Allen Craig(thank goodness we didn't go after him!) Mike Napoli is having one of his poor seasons. Take Napoli from Boston from them swapping the difference in cash for this season. And send Milwaukee a top tier prospect in return. Margot and Cecchini would be the target.

From Houston, Chris Carter is Mark Reynolds essentially. 3TO below the Mendoza line. Jon Singleton hasn't progressed. To have such a talented young core coming up, Lind makes sense to put together that push. Asking for Velasquez seems about right in this trade. Maybe you can net a Lance McCullers as well by trading away your supplemental pick? Sending Lohse. Houston could be a great trade target for Depth in prospects and to the ML team's future because they have that 80s to 130s type prospects that aren't going to be insane to ask for. Note. Houston does have their own supplemental pick #37 that could be used in trade. That would make an interesting draft for Milw at their pick.

Miami took their chance on Michael Morse. He's failed. One of those seasons he's not a surpise hero to a team and explains why he's a Year to year type player. Miami lacks the ideal prospects though. Only have 2 in the top 100 in Kolek and Realmuto an already called up replacment for Saltamacchia at Catcher. Miami's a team that's traded away 1st round picks in Colin Moran and Andrew Heaney and that leaves their top half of prospects fairly weak. Justin Nicolino and Jose Urena are the next in line prospects. Each with their own kinds of warts to not get overly excited about in upside.

 

 

I like Houston as a fit for Lind. They're a team that could move away from Carter and supplant him with Lind with more time to let Singleton mature in to a ML player as a backup. That competitive balance pick sounds like a very reasonable trade piece under both franchise's circumstances. Houston could keep the better in their minds of Velasquez or McCullers by sending the pick with the worse off thought of prospect.

[chickinbrickin]

I would love to see the Brewers trade Lind. This would be a great example of selling high on someone. Hopefully he can keep up his production for the next couple months to really garner a nice return. The Brewer's have had multiple opportunities to cut ties with guys at the height of their value, but have failed to do so. See Hart and McGehee, and even throw Gomez. It would be nice to see that Melvin even has the ability to properly manage a small market roster.

 

Rays and A's do this type of thing almost every year without even thinking about it, and they are always somewhat competitive, and always have a farm system full of young difference makers coming up. At some point Melvin needs to man up and trade high on a guy, and start to retool.

[wildcat2237]

Angels could be a landing spot for Adam Lind.

 

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/5/12/8594573/angels-may-be-looking-to-add-offense-in-trade-market

 

Not really sure what kind of a return we could net there. I'm not really too high on the halos farm system right now.

 

Would Kyle Kubitza and his .405 OBP at AA be a reach?

[bill hAll Star]

Adding in PCL inflation (and not knowing much about other things) it seems like a good comparison for Kubitza is Brock Holt? I don't know if Kubitza plays other positions but basically a guy that will be 10 HR, .360 OBP, lefty. Maybe a little more power than Holt but a bit less on the position flexibility?

 

Depending on his defense, that seems like a pretty fair return. Not a stud prospect but probably a cheap, good 3B or at least platoon corner guy.

[wildcat2237]

Adding in PCL inflation (and not knowing much about other things) it seems like a good comparison for Kubitza is Brock Holt? I don't know if Kubitza plays other positions but basically a guy that will be 10 HR, .360 OBP, lefty. Maybe a little more power than Holt but a bit less on the position flexibility?

 

Depending on his defense, that seems like a pretty fair return. Not a stud prospect but probably a cheap, good 3B or at least platoon corner guy.

 

Kubitza put up a .295 average and .405 OBP line last year at AA Mississippi.

 

This year he is putting up a .321 average and .384 OBP at AAA Salt Lake.

 

Because of the lack of power I dont think he is going to be a world beater at 3B. That said, I like the high OBP numbers and left handed bat at 3b. Could be an option with Ramirez retiring.

[jerichoholicninja]

Angels could be a landing spot for Adam Lind.

 

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/5/12/8594573/angels-may-be-looking-to-add-offense-in-trade-market

 

Not really sure what kind of a return we could net there. I'm not really too high on the halos farm system right now.

 

Would Kyle Kubitza and his .405 OBP at AA be a reach?

 

Angels already have Cron and Pujols. Not sure another 1B is going to be very good for that organization.

[MrTPlush]

Angels could be a landing spot for Adam Lind.

 

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/5/12/8594573/angels-may-be-looking-to-add-offense-in-trade-market

 

Not really sure what kind of a return we could net there. I'm not really too high on the halos farm system right now.

 

Would Kyle Kubitza and his .405 OBP at AA be a reach?

 

Angels already have Cron and Pujols. Not sure another 1B is going to be very good for that organization.

 

Have you seen the production from their DH spot?

[bill hAll Star]

Adding in PCL inflation (and not knowing much about other things) it seems like a good comparison for Kubitza is Brock Holt? I don't know if Kubitza plays other positions but basically a guy that will be 10 HR, .360 OBP, lefty. Maybe a little more power than Holt but a bit less on the position flexibility?

 

Depending on his defense, that seems like a pretty fair return. Not a stud prospect but probably a cheap, good 3B or at least platoon corner guy.

 

Kubitza put up a .295 average and .405 OBP line last year at AA Mississippi.

 

This year he is putting up a .321 average and .384 OBP at AAA Salt Lake.

 

Because of the lack of power I dont think he is going to be a world beater at 3B. That said, I like the high OBP numbers and left handed bat at 3b. Could be an option with Ramirez retiring.

 

Right, he basically has Brock Holt-esque numbers at those ages in the minors, just with a slight bump in power (but he's in the PCL) so I figured he'd be a low/mid .700s guy but he'd bat lefty and play 3B. Definitely would be nice to have in the organization.

[wildcat2237]

Adding in PCL inflation (and not knowing much about other things) it seems like a good comparison for Kubitza is Brock Holt? I don't know if Kubitza plays other positions but basically a guy that will be 10 HR, .360 OBP, lefty. Maybe a little more power than Holt but a bit less on the position flexibility?

 

Depending on his defense, that seems like a pretty fair return. Not a stud prospect but probably a cheap, good 3B or at least platoon corner guy.

 

Kubitza put up a .295 average and .405 OBP line last year at AA Mississippi.

 

This year he is putting up a .321 average and .384 OBP at AAA Salt Lake.

 

Because of the lack of power I dont think he is going to be a world beater at 3B. That said, I like the high OBP numbers and left handed bat at 3b. Could be an option with Ramirez retiring.

 

Right, he basically has Brock Holt-esque numbers at those ages in the minors, just with a slight bump in power (but he's in the PCL) so I figured he'd be a low/mid .700s guy but he'd bat lefty and play 3B. Definitely would be nice to have in the organization.

 

I'm having a really hard time getting a feel for Lind's value.

 

To get him we gave up a fringe number 5 starter/long man with a propensity for giving up gopher balls.

 

He seems, however, like a pretty darn good hitter. Good patience, good power. Have to wonder if Melvin didnt get a steal there. It would be nice to essentially turn Marco Estrada into two or three quality young players.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think Lind's going anywhere. First his value isn't all that high. Most contending teams already have productive 1B/DH. Secondly, I believe they are beginning to see enough from the guys they control beyond this year like Braun, Lucroy, Gomez, and Lind and they are getting enough development from talent in their system particularly at Biloxi, that they aren't going to reflexively unload guys especially at positions where they aren't deep that could help them contend in 2016 just to boost their farm system a bit unless there's a surplus at the position. I don't see a surplus at 1B.

 

The first 20 games might have sabotaged this year though that's not entirely determined yet, but it's still just a 20 game stretch and you don't conclude you have no hope going forward based on that. Forget the collapse last year. Lots of reasons for that that have either been resolved (manager gone, Braun's thumb healed, 1B spot filled), or can be resolved with one or two shrewd moves with some of the money they'll have to spend.

[monty57]

but it's still just a 20 game stretch and you don't conclude you have no hope going forward based on that

 

Just like you don't conclude you have a playoff team based on a hot stretch to start last year.

 

We're losing Lohse, Ramirez, and Parra, and seem to be desperately trying to rid ourselves of Garza. The guys everyone was calling studs (Gennett and Davis) are proving that the scouts were probably right about them. They, like most of the Brewer minor leaguers, are guys that can have a MLB career, but aren't special. There are a few guys in the system with upside, but they still have a lot to prove, and our best prospect (Arcia) is sitting in our deepest position. We don't have any Braun's or Fielder's (or in today's vernacular Syndergaards or Bryants) in our system, and we need to find some of them somewhere. Our best chance at finding them is in realizing that our playoff hopes for the near future are extremely slim, so we should use our premiere trading chips to bring in elite prospects.

 

To topic with Lind, he is sporting an OPS over .900 and has been tearing things up all year. Getting off the turf seems to have helped his recurring back problem, which has not been an issue this season. He is also disproving the theory that he is strictly a platoon player, as he is hitting well as an everyday guy for Milwaukee. Plus, Toronto had too many players to fill the 1B/DH roles, so he was expendable. I know we got him cheap, but I would think that he has greatly improved his trade value, and 1.5 years of his service should now be appealing to any team looking to add a powerful left-handed bat to their lineup. He was a good find by Melvin, but his best value to the team right now should be in trade.

[bill hAll Star]

but it's still just a 20 game stretch and you don't conclude you have no hope going forward based on that

 

Just like you don't conclude you have a playoff team based on a hot stretch to start last year.

 

We're losing Lohse, Ramirez, and Parra, and seem to be desperately trying to rid ourselves of Garza. The guys everyone was calling studs (Gennett and Davis) are proving that the scouts were probably right about them. They, like most of the Brewer minor leaguers, are guys that can have a MLB career, but aren't special. There are a few guys in the system with upside, but they still have a lot to prove, and our best prospect (Arcia) is sitting in our deepest position. We don't have any Braun's or Fielder's (or in today's vernacular Syndergaards or Bryants) in our system, and we need to find some of them somewhere. Our best chance at finding them is in realizing that our playoff hopes for the near future are extremely slim, so we should use our premiere trading chips to bring in elite prospects.

 

I mostly agree with you, though I'm not sure anyone was calling Davis and Gennett studs. I also don't think they are "desperately" trying to get rid of Garza. If you're rebuilding, a "league average" veteran pitcher with slightly below market value contract is someone that you're going to try to deal away, though.

 

If the Brewers were theoretically forced to try to "win now" again next year, I'd like to keep Garza.

 

There is probably a special set of teams that is willing to trade for Garza. If the Brewers are rebuilding, 3 years/$40 million remaining is probably a complete waste. For a competing team, 3/$40 is below what it costs to get somebody like Garza. However, they'd have to throw in some prospects. If the Brewers were theoretically giving him away to save money, I'll bet there would be a line of teams willing just to pay his contract.

 

To topic with Lind, he is sporting an OPS over .900 and has been tearing things up all year. Getting off the turf seems to have helped his recurring back problem, which has not been an issue this season. He is also disproving the theory that he is strictly a platoon player, as he is hitting well as an everyday guy for Milwaukee.

 

His splits are .968 vs RHP and .584 against LHP. Are you sure about that?

[logan82]

I mostly agree with you, though I'm not sure anyone was calling Davis and Gennett studs. I also don't think they are "desperately" trying to get rid of Garza. If you're rebuilding, a "league average" veteran pitcher with slightly below market value contract is someone that you're going to try to deal away, though.

No but there was a lot of "our minor leagues are not as bad as people are saying because we are bringing up guys like Gennett and Davis."

[monty57]

His splits are .968 vs RHP and .584 against LHP. Are you sure about that?

 

Wow, didn't realize that. He was hitting them better early. I guess things change quickly in a 23 AB sample set :-)

 

I also don't think they are "desperately" trying to get rid of Garza.

 

I got that from blurbs like this from MLBtraderumors: "Kyle Lohse seems like a natural candidate to be traded this offseason, but the Brewers are particularly interested in shedding Matt Garza‘s contract. "

 

No but there was a lot of "our minor leagues are not as bad as people are saying because we are bringing up guys like Gennett and Davis."

 

Yeah, that's really what I was getting at. For quite a while, the Brewers' top prospects projected to be guys who could have some success at the MLB level, but probably wouldn't be stars. My concern for quite a while has been that the Brewers have been losing talented players and replacing them with less talented players, while all the while getting more expensive. That can't lead to a good place.

 

Look at guys like Bryant and Syndergaard and it's easy to see why people who get paid to rate prospects put the Brewers' farm near the bottom. We don't have anyone even close to that good in our system, and we need to find them if we ever want to get back to the position of being serious playoff contenders. Spending a good portion of the payroll on guys who are past their prime, and staying under payroll budget by giving so-so prospects starting jobs isn't the way to reach the promised land.

 

That they are "particularly interested in shedding Matt Garza's contract" gives me hope that Attanasio is finally realizing this. Garza is key, because they wouldn't trade him if they were interested in trying to compete next year. With that knowledge, it makes sense that they will shop not only the dregs and free-agents-to-be, but also guys who could bring some real talent back into the system. To topic, Lind wouldn't bring back as much as a Gomez or Lucroy, but he has a good bat, and could really help a team's playoff chances, so that's worth something.

[torts]

Nick Kingham just had TJ surgery, so you can count him out of Pirates prospects to get.

[brewcrewdue80]

Nick Kingham just had TJ surgery, so you can count him out of Pirates prospects to get.

 

Man, I just feel bad for the Pirates. Because of all the teams in the division after Milw winning it, I'd prefer the Pirates to. Taillon should have already been on the ML staff, and he's been delayed by the TJ. Now Kingham. Luis Heredia with his own injury issues a former top 100 ranking. And even Glasnow is on the DL currently. Cole missed games in 2014.

 

It's stuff like that, that make GMs trade these prospects because long term health to even reach the Majors is so unknown.

 

That said, getting a former top 100 like Luis Heredia who's just 20 because of the injury and downward ranking but obviously with so much time to get back on track would be nice buy low for Lind.

[Mudville9]

I'm not sure if the Pirates' 1B are playing better, but I would make an offer for Lind before they play the Brewers on Monday. That alone takes away from one team and helps your needs. It could result in an extra win during the series and get you that much closer to the Cards.

[torts]

Pedro is hitting .244/.319/.782 with 9 HR's and 27 RBI's in 50 games at 1B this season... which is pretty close to what Lind is doing (.281/.358/.849)

[WV Brew]

Not only is Lind better than Alvarez but look at Harrison: .259/.298/.387 and Hart: .200/.214/.300.

 

Unless the Pirates get better production somehow out of 1st and 3rd, I don't see them making the playoffs. I know they don't want Alvarez back at 3rd but Harrison has been just awful.

[brewmann04]

Didn't they just pay Harrison to.

[bill hAll Star]

Harrison started off slow (and has been cool the past week or so) but put up a .760 in May. I wasn't a huge fan of him as it was with limited power, but he's fine in there as the super-utility guy. Everyday 3B may be asking a bit much because he's a .700ish guy but plays good enough defense.

 

I doubt they'd move Alvarez to 3B this year because he is always a -5 UZR/150 guy at 3B and last year was -19 UZR/150. They are sending in a late-game replacement of Sean Rodriguez at 1B for him...and that's 1B. Lind and Alvarez would be 2 bad defenders when they face righties.

 

If they feel like a mid-season move of Alvarez back to 3B is OK, then maybe platooning Lind/Hart (or another RH pickup instead of Hart) and Alvarez with Kang/Harrison while Harrison plays super-utility, that would be a modest improvement.

 

That said, I don't see that as what they'd be looking for. Finding a RH 1B for really cheap might be where they go if they think Hart is completely done at this point.

[torts]

They will not move Alvarez back to 3B. No way is that happening. He's a 1B for the rest of his time in Pittsburgh.

[brewcrewdue80]

They will not move Alvarez back to 3B. No way is that happening. He's a 1B for the rest of his time in Pittsburgh.

 

Yep. I'm surprised the Pirates haven't actually tried moving him to an AL team to be a DH.