Ron Roenicke relieved of managerial duties (Craig Counsell named new manager, 3 yr contract)

[Thurston Fluff]

Sometimes you make the "right" decision, it either works or doesn't and you either win or lose the game because of it. Sometimes you make the "wrong" decision, it either works or doesn't and you either win or lose the game because of it. Sometimes the difference is so marginal there truly is no right or wrong decision. Ahhhh, baseball.

 

Doesn't that just lend to the argument that in game managerial decisions are not all the important to winning games? The number of times the right thing works vs the wrong thing not is so insignificant to team talent it renders such things irrelevant. Not that the right thing shouldn't always be done but it just isn't all that important overall. Which is why I think spending 90% of the time arguing a manager's competence by how well they do it is so off base.

[Baldkin]

The manager makes ~1000 decisions (say, 6 a game, which is probably an underestimate when you include the daily lineup) over the course of a season. If he plays the odds correctly he's the casino in Vegas over the course of a season. If he doesn't, then he's the poor sap hoping to get lucky at the craps table.

[Thurston Fluff]

Several problems with that estimate. First off virtually all of those six decisions a game are so basic everybody makes the exact same choice. Pulling Mat Garza last night was a choice. Yet very few would not have done so. So your 6 per game number is already on suspect ground. When you break it down to the choices that are actual choices I'd say you are lucky to have one per game. Of that most do not effect the games outcome. I seriously doubt the number of choices that are not garden variety everyone makes the same choice and could effect the outcome of the game it averages out to be one every other game. It's probably closer to a couple a week. but for the sake of argument, not to mention doing math in my head, lets assume one every other game. At that rate you are down to 82 choices that matter over the course of the season. Now even the worst of managers do not make the wrong choice every time. So lets say he makes the wrong choice 75% of the time. That is a lot but for the sake of argument lets go with it. That brings us down to around 60 bad choices per season that could effect the game. Of those 60 bad choices many of them turn out well while some of the good choices don't. My guess is the best of choices have a 60% rate of working vs 40% of the poor choices. So the difference is about 12 choices a year that might actually effect the outcome of a game of a really terrible strategic manager vs a great one who makes all the right choices. If you really want to go there, since no manager makes every choice correctly, we should compare them to good managers, not a hypothetical one who makes every decision correctly. Lets say 75% is a valid number of correct choices to be considered good. That leaves us with 8 games where a good strategic manager makes a difference from a terrible one. But that also assumes those decisions that do effect the game come in the games when they are facing a manager who makes the right choices. What are the odds that the few times a year a bad choice that matters will coincide with the other manager making the right choices that turn out well? While my numbers are not meant to be scientific I think it does show the idea that a manager's choice actually matters around six times a game is suspect at best. All in all I'd say managerial decisions are so far down on the totem pole of managerial success as to be irrelevant.

[Baldkin]

Just because a choice didn't end up with a 7-run home run doesn't mean it didn't effect the game, or A GAME over the course of 162 games. These are simple things that managers consistently get wrong (like hitting the pitcher 9th, hitting a low OBP guy who happens to be fast leadoff, hitting a veteran 4th because he's a veteran, etc) which are amazingly simple and managers mess up constantly.

 

It's about the long play, it's about those 1,000 decisions, and it's about playing the 52% instead of the 48% odds. About putting your players and your team in the best position to succeed on a game-by-game and play-by-play basis.

 

Decisions like bringing in the righty in the 8th to face two lefties in the line up, instead of the lefty because he's the 8th inning guy. Even if he gets them out, it was still the wrong decision.

[monty57]

Can someone give me reason to believe that we are an underperforming team that is bound to improve, or are we really overvaluing guys who just aren't that good, and we don't have enough talent around our good players to really be that good?

 

No more than you can give me a reason to believe that we are not under-performing. Almost every single player on the team is performing under their 3 year average by a pretty large amount. It was a high variance team going into the season which is why I said they weren't really a projectable bunch. I'd believe a .750 OPS out of Braun, I'd believe a .900 OPS too. I'd believe a .750 OPS out of Aramis, I could see an .850 OPS too.

 

I could see an entire rotation of sub 3.60 ERA guys, I could see any or all of them at 4.00 ERA+ too.

 

I mean I'd be shocked if Maldenado is really a .479 OPS player. I'd be surprised if Scooter was at a .474 OPS at the end of the year. Those 2 alone have massively under-produced. I'd be shocked if Lohse remained a 6 ERA pitcher all year. These are so far off of expectations that they seem like flukes. Lohse could just lose it and be a high 4 ERA guy, I doubt he will but he could, but a 6 doesn't seem reasonable.

 

That's what I was getting at. When I looked at the stats, I expected a bunch of players to jump off the page as to how their underperformance was sinking the ship, and by them simply playing more to their average the team would naturally be better. I've said all along that given time this team would get hot and, if no changes are made, they would end up just short of .500, even with the cold start. I'm starting to wonder if that's true, or at least if that's the likely outcome. There are a couple of guys that surely will improve (Gennett, Lucroy), but there are a couple that have overperformed (Lind, Parra). I expect a few more to play better, but none are really "givens," and none are such huge leaps that they will turn the team around, unless Braun goes completely nutty and posts a 1.000 OPS the rest of the season, or Ramirez realizes he isn't retired until after this season. The starting pitching has gotten worse since I wrote that post last week, so I guess getting to where I hoped would be an even bigger improvement than it was a week or so ago.

[danzig6767]

I noticed that Counsell is now also adding a Y to the last name of many Brewers players.

 

Why the hell does every manager the Brewers hire have to have this annoying habit?

[3and2Fastball]

I noticed that Counsell is now also adding a Y to the last name of many Brewers players.

 

Why the hell does every manager the Brewers hire have to have this annoying habit?

 

I blame Ed Sedar

[pacopete4]

And he wants to follow suit in putting a pitcher in high leverage situations only because his paycheck says he should be. Ridiculous

[BrewCrewForever]

Broxton should not be used by Counsell in high leverage situations for a while now, if he knows what he's doing.

[brewmann04]

I totally agree that Broxton needs to be pulled from a set up role this is just not the first time with him.

[monty57]

I agree that Broxton stinks and shouldn't be the "setup guy," but as soon as someone else is put there and blows a lead, people will get up in arms that we're using {insert "unproven" guy's name} when have a "proven" guy like Broxton on the team.

[brewmann04]

Just because he getting 9 Million he should not stay in that role time to try someone new at least for now. they should give Broxton the Wang Treatment

[I Heart Brewers]

What's there to lose at this point? Might as well keep trotting Broxton out there. The team isn't going anywhere so either he loses them more games and improves their draft position or he turns it around and becomes a pitcher they can deal at the deadline for some minor league depth.

 

I just thought perhaps Melvin would have learned his lesson with Gagne. Guess not.

[yoyo49]

So the contact play is still happening with Counsell?

[monty57]

Just because he getting 9 Million he should not stay in that role time to try someone new at least for now. they should give Broxton the Wang Treatment

 

If that means kick him in the nuts and send him packing, I'm all for it :-)

[danzig6767]

Just because he getting 9 Million he should not stay in that role time to try someone new at least for now. they should give Broxton the Wang Treatment

If that means kick him in the nuts and send him packing, I'm all for it :-)

I totally get removing Broxton from the 8th inning spot and this may sound odd given the results, but i've seen some potentially promising signs of late from Broxton.

 

When he came over from the Reds last year, if my memory is correct, his velocity was down to more in that 91-93ish range. Same early in this season. In his last few outings though, his fastball has been sitting consistently in the 95-98 range. The best velocity in can remember since he got here and the same velocity as in his days with the Dodgers. The main problem though is a lack of command of his slider, so hitters mainly are just sitting on his fastball.

 

If Broxton can keep throwing 95-98, i wanna think he'll eventually get command back of his slider and in turn see better results, regardless of what inning he's pitching in. If that were to happen, maybe we could trade him at the deadline so long as the team ate most or nearly all of his salary. I'd just be more concerned that he had no hope of turning things around if his velocity was declining while seeing bad results vs the velocity increasing as it has been.

[brewmann04]

man i hope your are correct if we can get anything for him it be a miracle.

[brewmann04]

more and more i watch can't put this on RR being the reason this team is bad. Earl Weaver or Sparky Anderson could not win with this team

[danzig6767]

more and more i watch can't put this on RR being the reason this team is bad. Earl Weaver or Sparky Anderson could not win with this team

Hard for any manager to look smart when he has a bad bullpen with few reliable options besides the closer. Jeffress has been pretty good and Blazek decent outside of to many walks, but that's about it along with KRod.

 

This is yet another example of just how miserable the Brewers have been at drafting/developing their own pitching. Year after year we can't even grab any arms from the farm system to fill holes in the pen because the franchise can't figure out how to draft pitching. Pretty much every relief pitcher over a long stretch of time has had to come via free agency or trades except for Wooten and Kintzler type scrubs.

 

Granted, a sizable percentage of guys in bullpens across the league have bounced around from various teams, but most teams have had at least some of their quality relief pitchers come out of their farm systems, unlike the Brewers.

 

Think about it. Take roughly the last 10-15 years and all of the countless pitchers the Brewers have drafted over that time. It almost should defy the statistical odds that so few of those pitchers could have panned out good enough to be at least quality relief pitchers for a couple of years or longer.

[JohnBriggs12]

Counsell cost them the game today by giving the hottest hitter a day of "rest". Seriously Craig? Lucroy's out. Lind and Davis are slumping. Maldonado's not hitting his weight and you're already resting Ramirez. So you give Braun a day off and you lose 2-1 wasting a fine performance by your best staring pitching?

[trwi7]

Pretty sure Brian made a joke today about Counsell saying it was a scheduled day off for Braun and Ramirez. He said something like "maybe he can schedule different days off next time."

 

Was kind of surprised to hear that but it made me laugh.

[brewmann04]

yes it kinda stupid move here by our manager.

[brewmann04]

yes it kinda stupid move here by our manager.

[TURBO]

Counsell cost them the game today by giving the hottest hitter a day of "rest". Seriously Craig? Lucroy's out. Lind and Davis are slumping. Maldonado's not hitting his weight and you're already resting Ramirez. So you give Braun a day off and you lose 2-1 wasting a fine performance by your best staring pitching?

 

He learned that move from RRR, who often did the same exact stupid stuff...

[Thurston Fluff]

Think about it. Take roughly the last 10-15 years and all of the countless pitchers the Brewers have drafted over that time. It almost should defy the statistical odds that so few of those pitchers could have panned out good enough to be at least quality relief pitchers for a couple of years or longer.

 

It seems to me that last few years we have seen a pretty decent amount of home grown pitching come in and do well. Granted it was a problem over a longer period of time but the past few years we saw the likes of Nelson, Thornburg, Peralta, Jefferess and Fiers come in and do well. For a franchise that hasn't had a draft pick in the top 10 over that period of time to still manage to draft 3/5ths of it's starting rotation can't be as terrible at drafting pitching as you suggest. The problem was not doing very well prior to this group. But you do have to recognize what they are doing now is different than what they did then.

 

He learned that move from RRR, who often did the same exact stupid stuff...

 

You could insert any manager's name in that sentence and be accurate. So either all managers do really stupid stuff or we are missing something as to why they do it. When things like that occur I tend to think it's my ignorance that is the problem. Though, as sabre metrics showed, sometimes it is mass stupidity at work.