Ron Roenicke relieved of managerial duties (Craig Counsell named new manager, 3 yr contract)

[brewcrewdue80]

Yes. And if the Brewers didn't hire him though? How'd you think Craig could react?

 

 

Who gives a crap? When did Craig Counsell become some hot managing prospect? He's never done anything before to suggest he'd be a really good manager.

 

It's not the Managing part. It's the GM grooming part. Front office type part. That's the what if. IF Tampa hired him or the next franchise. All franchises considered. If you're moving up in the sport, I'd think Milwaukee is mostly the bottom rung. And Milw's chances are suddenly gone to use him.

[FVBrewerFan]

adam, the problem is that if you take away all aggressiveness from Gomez, Braun, and Seggy, we may not win as many. The aggressiveness of those guys can be frustrating, but we win more as a result of their play than they cost us. I think Counsell is talking about playing smarter. Take risks, but not unnecessary risks.

 

We've gone round and round about this in the past, but it's not the aggressiveness that needs to be eliminated. It is the flat-out bone-headed base running blunders. Trying to go 2nd to third on a grounder hit in front of you. Getting picked off 2nd base with no outs.

 

Good example is when Sedar waived Lind around the other day and was thrown out by 89 feet at home. That's the kind of thing that hopefully Counsell can drastically reduce.

[brewtank34]

adam, the problem is that if you take away all aggressiveness from Gomez, Braun, and Seggy, we may not win as many. The aggressiveness of those guys can be frustrating, but we win more as a result of their play than they cost us. I think Counsell is talking about playing smarter. Take risks, but not unnecessary risks.

 

If an out leads to a higher percentage of us scoring a run, I'm all-in on giving up one of my precious 27 outs. Risking the odds of this Brewer team with say runner's on 1st and 2nd and no outs..to actually move the runners over or score the runners is low. Giving up an out so that they move over to scoring position and allowing the other two batters swing away is more along the line of the way I hope they change things up. Hoping that a sub .300 hitter can swing the bat appropriately and either get a hit or not strike out or hit into a double play is just that...sub 30%. Give me a bunt and move the runners over and allow the next guy to score them.

[ImScafering]

The team seems like they are doing a better job at the plate and the effort level has risen. I think getting rid of Roenicke and hiring Counsell is just what this team needed. I honestly think this team is capable of getting back to .500 by the end of June as long as they decide, as a group, to buy in and become a more fundamentally sound ball club.

[reillymcshane]

I honestly think this team is capable of getting back to .500 by the end of June as long as they decide, as a group, to buy in and become a more fundamentally sound ball club.

That's tough to do. The Brewers have 48 games between now and July 1. To reach .500, they'd have to go 29-19 in that time span - a winning percentage of 60%. That's a pretty hefty goal.

 

This team, even if things are going well, just isn't that good. Any climb back to .500 will probably be more gradual.

 

If you give the team until August 1 (74 games), they need to go 42-32 in that time frame. Still a winning percentage of 57%. Tough, but more manageable.

 

If they keep up that 57% for the rest of the year, they reach 85 wins - in wild card range. Again, not impossible, but difficult. Winning 57% of your games makes you one of the top 5-6 teams in the league.

 

I realize we could go on a nice streak, but on the flip side, we could also go on a losing streak as well. Again, I just don't think we are good enough to sustain that kind of winning.

[pacopete4]

Again, I just don't think we are good enough to sustain that kind of winning.

 

Most people don't which will make it that much sweeter!

 

 

I did enjoy your breakdown through. It's a good breakdown of how deep of a hole they dug.

[wildcat2237]

It's amazing what a competent manager can do. I'm just hoping and praying that this team now playing up to its potential doesn't delay the rebuild.

[trwi7]

It's amazing what a competent manager can do.

 

A competent manager doesn't leave Broxton in for the entire 8th inning tonight. The only reason we got out of that inning tied is because Ventura is a complete idiot and had Shuck bunt and Gomez making a great play on a 390 foot rocket to center that would've scored two runs.

[TGOTJ]

I think that bullpen usage will be something to watch going forward. But if your "8th inning $9 million" reliever continues to sport an ERA north of 7...well, there's not a lot you can do. Bring up Wang? :-)

[sveumrules]

Yesterday Counsell did the competent thing and relieved Broxton with Smith to face Rizzo. It didn't work, he gave up a hit and Chicago tied the game. Luckily, we came back to get the win.

 

Tonight the option wasn't quite as obvious with Smith already used and only Cotts available to face Eaton. We'll never know what might have happened had Counsell brought in Cotts, but clearly Broxton didn't hold the lead. Luckily, we came back to get the win.

 

Sometimes you make the "right" decision, it either works or doesn't and you either win or lose the game because of it. Sometimes you make the "wrong" decision, it either works or doesn't and you either win or lose the game because of it. Sometimes the difference is so marginal there truly is no right or wrong decision. Ahhhh, baseball.

[pacopete4]

Why not make Jeffress your 8th inning guy. He's been very consistent and seems like he's earned that opportunity. Don't care how much guys are paid.

[homer]

I prefer not to have a designated guy just for a particular inning. You end up with Ned Yost bullpen management that way.

[monty57]

A competent manager doesn't leave Broxton in for the entire 8th inning tonight.

 

I figured he was hoping by throwing so many pitches Broxton would throw his arm out and he could get a competent RP on the roster.

[pacopete4]

I prefer not to have a designated guy just for a particular inning. You end up with Ned Yost bullpen management that way.

 

 

Me too but more likely than not, you'll have the same collection of guys doing those type of roles. As the season has gone, Jeffress has earned a shot at later innings while Broxton should be pitching in the 6th when the game is out of control one way or another.

[FVBrewerFan]

Jeffress hasn't exactly been a world beater either. He's been better than Broxton, but has a pretty high WHIP for a late inning guy, high BB rate, etc.

 

Bottom line, the bullpen is pretty bad and you need more than one guy pitching in late innings anyhow. It's not Counsel's fault (or RR's fault for that matter) there's guys like Cotts in the bullpen.

[Ennder]

This team, even if things are going well, just isn't that good.

 

Worse teams than this have gone 29-19 many times in history.

 

Picking a random cruddy Brewer year.

 

The 2001 68 win Brewer team had a stretch where they went 25-18 as an example. Pick out just about any bad year and you'll find a good 20-25 game stretch where they played like a playoff team. It is doing it consistently that is the issue.

[AKCheesehead]

The 2001 68 win Brewer team had a stretch where they went 25-18 as an example.

 

So true. Like in 2003 when our currently 48-75 club banged out 10 in a row. That was big fun.

[TURBO]

I prefer not to have a designated guy just for a particular inning. You end up with Ron Roenicke bullpen management that way.

 

Fixed that for you...

 

[monty57]

Pick out just about any bad year and you'll find a good 20-25 game stretch where they played like a playoff team. It is doing it consistently that is the issue.

 

Yeah, this team over the past few seasons has just seemed to be more "streak-prone" than most, and the timing of the big hot streak and big cold streak has determined whether they are buyers or sellers at the deadline. I don't know what has caused this excessive "streakiness." Maybe it was the manager, maybe an over-reliance on home runs, maybe the lack of a true "Ace" (although they had Greinke for one of the streaky years), maybe something completely different.

 

I still think that if left alone, this team will end up somewhere just shy of .500, but I don't think that relying on a super hot streak to get to the playoffs would be their best course of action at this time. It would require their annual "big hot streak" to come before the break to get them around .500, and then another "hot streak" in the second half to get them from around .500 to being a playoff team. The odds are pretty small of that happening, so I think they're much better off at least finding trade partners for some of the big salaries that are going to be FAs, not that any of them other than maybe Parra are helping their trade status.

 

To topic, I think a big part of bringing Counsell on is to help mentor the young guys that come up as the old guys are traded off. I hope the thought process doesn't change just because they have a bit of a hot streak leading up to the trade deadline.

[TheCrew07]

I don't think it's outrageous to believe that the Brewers could ultimately end up at or around .500 this year, but that's not just not my measure of whether or not the team is competitive, nor do I view that as any reason to stick with the status quo. My personal bar is set much higher than that, if we aren't a 90-92 win team on paper I'm just not going to be excited. Even in 2011 it was hard for me to stay up because there was literally no depth at all behind the MLB roster so I spent all year fearing that a couple of players would get hurt and have it all come crashing down.

[FVBrewerFan]

Anything is possible, but I would be shocked if this team can get to .500. The bullpen is just plain old bad, and it's not like there's reason to believe it can suddenly be better. Rotation, yea, I can see maybe they can be a little better. But with no depth at all, only a matter of time for someone to go down with nobody to step in. Thornburg?? Maybe....I guess so. After that? Nothing. The hitting will come and go, get Lucroy back and maybe they can score enough runs and carry the team to .500. I just don't see it when you look at the whole picture.

 

Finally, as far as the whole discussion on streaks.... Sure they will have a hot streak. But streaks work both ways, and they could very well have another 5-21 streak.

[monty57]

Anything is possible, but I would be shocked if this team can get to .500. The bullpen is just plain old bad, and it's not like there's reason to believe it can suddenly be better. Rotation, yea, I can see maybe they can be a little better. But with no depth at all, only a matter of time for someone to go down with nobody to step in. Thornburg?? Maybe....I guess so. After that? Nothing. The hitting will come and go, get Lucroy back and maybe they can score enough runs and carry the team to .500. I just don't see it when you look at the whole picture.

 

Finally, as far as the whole discussion on streaks.... Sure they will have a hot streak. But streaks work both ways, and they could very well have another 5-21 streak.

 

What's worrisome is that I was just looking at the team's stats, and I don't see a huge chunk of what could easily be called "underperformance."

 

On the pitching side, Lohse has been bad, but is that underperformance or age? We didn't know what Fiers would do, so a 5 ERA isn't certain to drop. Nelson and Garza are just above 4, so maybe they drop that a little, but it's not far out of line of what we may expect, and Peralta is around 3.5 which is about what's hoped for. In the bullpen, Broxton has stunk, and Cotts has an ERA over 5, but the rest of the guys (at least from an ERA standpoint) have pitched fairly well. I know ERA is probably a bad judge, especially in small samples, but they also generally have decent K:BB numbers. Really a drop in HRs is the only thing I could see making a significant difference.

 

On the hitting side, Lind and Parra have overperformed and Davis is about up to expectation. Braun and Gomez have probably underperformed, but aren't bad. Herrera and H Gomez have actually done fairly well as subs. Segura is right around his career levels, and I didn't count on much more from Ramirez than he is providing. Gennett should improve, and getting Lucroy back (and hitting better) will help.

 

All in all, there is certainly room for improvement, but I don't see a whole lot jumping out that says "we're bound to improve."

 

I guess this really depends on people's expectations. I don't expect a lot from guys who are well past their prime, so Lohse and Ramirez don't surprise me. Segura, Davis and Gennett are very different types of players, but I don't expect any of them to be .800 OPS players, and I wouldn't be surprised of Segura and Gennett are in the high .600's to low .700s (especially if Gennett hits vs LHP). Braun, Gomez, Lind and Lucroy should all be above .800, so there is some room for improvement there, but probably a drop off from Lind.

 

Can someone give me reason to believe that we are an underperforming team that is bound to improve, or are we really overvaluing guys who just aren't that good, and we don't have enough talent around our good players to really be that good?

[Ennder]

Can someone give me reason to believe that we are an underperforming team that is bound to improve, or are we really overvaluing guys who just aren't that good, and we don't have enough talent around our good players to really be that good?

 

No more than you can give me a reason to believe that we are not under-performing. Almost every single player on the team is performing under their 3 year average by a pretty large amount. It was a high variance team going into the season which is why I said they weren't really a projectable bunch. I'd believe a .750 OPS out of Braun, I'd believe a .900 OPS too. I'd believe a .750 OPS out of Aramis, I could see an .850 OPS too.

 

I could see an entire rotation of sub 3.60 ERA guys, I could see any or all of them at 4.00 ERA+ too.

 

I mean I'd be shocked if Maldenado is really a .479 OPS player. I'd be surprised if Scooter was at a .474 OPS at the end of the year. Those 2 alone have massively under-produced. I'd be shocked if Lohse remained a 6 ERA pitcher all year. These are so far off of expectations that they seem like flukes. Lohse could just lose it and be a high 4 ERA guy, I doubt he will but he could, but a 6 doesn't seem reasonable.

[endaround]

Every pitcher not named Peralta is striking batters out by the ton. So by basically the one pitching stat that can even be gauged at this point you would expect a huge improvement in pitching results. Smith, Broxton, Fiers and KRod each have a K/9 over 11.

[Ennder]

I don't know what has caused this excessive "streakiness.

 

If I had to guess it was the lack of OBP. SLG is very streaky while OBP is pretty consistent. Add to it the fact that the pitching is hit or miss and not always dominant and I just think when we aren't hitting for power we aren't winning. A team like the cardinals which is built around OBP is just going to be more consistent when the HR isn't there.