Open for business (part 1)

[paul253]

.500 at the all star breaks means a lot of the question marks that surround this team are trending towards the positive.

 

If the best we can hope for is a hot streak that gets us to around .500 at the all-star break and maybe we can possibly make a playoff run then I think we are really grasping for straws here. The team as it is set up now is not a team that can consistently win. It hasn't been a team that has been set up to consistently win for as long as I can remember. It's been a team that took a shot in 2008 and another one in 2011.

 

There just isn't enough talent here. And the talent we do have, mainly Braun, Lucroy and Gomez, is either in their prime now or just coming out of their prime. History tells us that players do not generally get better once they hit the 29-30-31 age mark. If we continue to think that we can compete for a World Series what is going to happen is that we are going to lose the opportunity to move the few players we have that could actually bring talent back. Other than Lucroy and Gomez and maybe Peralta we have nobody that could bring back multiple high ceiling prospects. And Gomez is likely gone after 2016. We have a few guys in the minors that could end up being all stars (Arcia and Coulter) but just like the major league team what he have in the minors is a lot of average ceiling type guys. Guys that could be regulars but probably won't be all-stars. That has got to change if we are to ever compete on an annual basis. We need to obtain young, high ceiling talent, use that talent until they are just about out their prime (just like Lucroy and Gomez are now) and then move them for younger guys that can help us for 5 or 6 more years. We need to recycle talent, not hang onto it until they have nothing left.

 

The window is closing very quickly for them to do something to turn this franchise around. I really, really hope they don't miss it because they think there is a chance they can sneak into the playoffs this year. As a fan, I'd be more excited to see them trade Lucroy and Gomez for high ceiling prospects than to see them play out the season in an attempt to make the playoffs.

[brewcrewdue80]

The thing with Lohse and giving up the pick is that Melvin could have signed any number of SPs to 1 or 2year deals for half or less money than he paid Lohse for 2013 such as: Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Kevin Correia, Roberto Hernandez, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Kazmir, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard and Joe Saunders. But he didn't. And thus Milw wound up signing Lohse giving their Division Champion Rival StL Cardinals their 1st rd comp pick and removing the Brewers 17th pick that season.

 

It wasn't set in stone that Lohse was going to be signed prior to the draft. There just weren't any takers when he signed. If he hadn't StL wouldn't have gotten that Pick. Now, based on the stats to date only Stl pick of Marco Gonsalves, Corey Kneble, and the recently called up Michael Lorenzen of Cincy have made it to the Bigs.

 

It's just that they absolutely missed on picking up insurance for Pitching when they should have. It would have been cheap but allowed younger SPs to be put in AAA if they didn't perform. Meanwhile the team had their #5 to trot out there. A small market team could have made their small market move and instead made the 3/33mil splash of cash plus lost their 1st rd pick.

 

Lohse worked out, but that doesn't make it a good signing. It's poor thinking on Melvin's part/MA to not have gone and spent 1-6.5mil on any number of those pitchers as insurance. Gallardo/Peralta was not a Playoff TOR pair to begin with. The team just needed a warm body to fill innings (like the Cubs have now in Hammel besides others) to get them to the AS break and the trade deadline and figure out their strategy in that month. It would have been sell after that May as it was, and maybe if they'd signed Kazmir or McCarthy or Slowey/Hernandez even they may have gotten a prospect in return WHILE saving that draft pick.

 

Just over-estimating the team's true talent.

[superfly]

The thing with Lohse and giving up the pick is that Melvin could have signed any number of SPs to 1 or 2year deals for half or less money than he paid Lohse for 2013 such as: Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Kevin Correia, Roberto Hernandez, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Kazmir, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard and Joe Saunders. But he didn't.

 

That list is like a horror show of pitching. McCarthy is OK, but now has tommy john. Blanton, Slowey, Bedard, Saunders, and Correia are downright terrible & not even in the majors. Pelfrey was horrific last year with the Twins (I witnessed he and Correia firsthand), but has been ok for a few weeks this season. Kazmir is the only one on the list that rivals Lohse imo.

[TooLiveBrew]

The thing with Lohse and giving up the pick is that Melvin could have signed any number of SPs to 1 or 2year deals for half or less money than he paid Lohse for 2013 such as: Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Kevin Correia, Roberto Hernandez, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Kazmir, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard and Joe Saunders. But he didn't.

 

That list is like a horror show of pitching. McCarthy is OK, but now has tommy john. Blanton, Slowey, Bedard, Saunders, and Correia are downright terrible & not even in the majors. Pelfrey was horrific last year with the Twins (I witnessed he and Correia firsthand), but has been ok for a few weeks this season. Kazmir is the only one on the list that rivals Lohse imo.

Well good thing we signed Lohse to help finish in the middle of the pack of the NL every year. Imagine if we wouldn't have signed him -- we'd have missed the playoffs each season & would still have the first-round pick we forfeited! That would be awful.

[superfly]

The thing with Lohse and giving up the pick is that Melvin could have signed any number of SPs to 1 or 2year deals for half or less money than he paid Lohse for 2013 such as: Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Kevin Correia, Roberto Hernandez, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Kazmir, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard and Joe Saunders. But he didn't.

 

That list is like a horror show of pitching. McCarthy is OK, but now has tommy john. Blanton, Slowey, Bedard, Saunders, and Correia are downright terrible & not even in the majors. Pelfrey was horrific last year with the Twins (I witnessed he and Correia firsthand), but has been ok for a few weeks this season. Kazmir is the only one on the list that rivals Lohse imo.

Well good thing we signed Lohse to help finish in the middle of the pack of the NL every year. Imagine if we wouldn't have signed him -- we'd have missed the playoffs each season & would still have the first-round pick we forfeited! That would be awful.

 

I'd quit whining and moaning about signing a 3.50ERA pitcher signed at a modest salary of 11 mil & begin whining and moaning about the 6 foot 5 300 pound reliever we have making 10 mil per to blow games up.

[trwi7]

I'd quit whining and moaning about signing a 3.50ERA pitcher signed at a modest salary of 11 mil & begin whining and moaning about the 6 foot 5 300 pound reliever we have making 10 mil per to blow games up.

 

Broxton sucks, we all admit that but that's not the subject.

 

Yes, the first two years he was a 3.50 ERA pitcher costing us $11 million. He also cost us a 1st round pick and in terms of team success, that 3.50 ERA didn't really help us. So we basically got a 3.50 ERA for nothing other than a couple of .500 seasons, the loss of a 1st round pick and a third season where it looks like he's done.

 

So what exactly did it get us? We're not going to get good value in a trade, we didn't make the playoffs and we lost a 1st round pick. How exactly can this be judged as positive for the franchise?

[PeaveyFury]

We're not going to get good value in a trade,

 

This is not fact yet. There's still the possibility that he'll be traded for something to help offset the loss of the pick.

[trwi7]

This is not fact yet. There's still the possibility that he'll be traded for something to help offset the loss of the pick.

 

Forgive me for thinking other teams aren't going to be knocking down our door for a 36 year old pitcher with a 7 ERA who has pitched every bit like he should have a 7 ERA and if for some reason a team is knocking on our door, they certainly aren't going to be offering anything of value player wise.

[pacopete4]

This is not fact yet. There's still the possibility that he'll be traded for something to help offset the loss of the pick.

 

Forgive me for thinking other teams aren't going to be knocking down our door for a 36 year old pitcher with a 7 ERA who has pitched every bit like he should have a 7 ERA and if for some reason a team is knocking on our door, they certainly aren't going to be offering anything of value player wise.

 

You're forgiven.

 

Considering he has about 13-16 starts (guesstimate) until the trading deadline, I think we can hold off on saying we wont' get anything for him. He could completely turn it around and be a 3.50 pitcher and keep the ball in the park and return us a nice piece. He could also start pitching well and we continue to win and by the all star break we are only a couple games from a wild card spot and we go for it. Or he could completely suck, we can't trade him, we don't sign him again and we thank him for the two years he pitched very well for us and move on. It's pretty silly to get up in arms about a situation we really do not know yet. If only we had a crystal ball...

[FVBrewerFan]

What did it get us? That sort of hindsight isn't productive. He was signed for a reasonable salary and lived up to his contract until this year. If they won the World Series, I'm guessing you would have said it was a great signing?

 

But they didn't win the World Series, true. Then again, they never have- which means every contract they ever had in the history of the organization was bad.

[logan82]

The Lohse deal was not to popular with many people when it occurred. Unfortunately, if he plays like this all year, this will turn out just as poorly as expected. It was about giving up a pick when we really didn't have a reasonable expectation of getting into the playoffs unless we got really lucky. The only hope was that we would be able to trade him at some point and get back a good young player.

 

Gave up a pick, which sucked.

Were about a .500 team, as expected.

Decline in last year, hopefully he gets better.

[trwi7]

What did it get us? That sort of hindsight isn't productive.

 

It's not hindsight if I was against the deal from the beginning, which I was.

 

He was signed for a reasonable salary and lived up to his contract until this year.

 

So that's what we're going to base it on? Well two out of three ain't bad, so it worked out! Sorry, I'm never going to agree with that reasoning. He gave us a couple extra wins per season to push us from 71 to 74 wins and from 79 to 82 wins. Yay, I guess. Not his fault but nothing I'm going to go and praise the front office about either. Especially at the cost of a draft pick.

 

If they won the World Series, I'm guessing you would have said it was a great signing?

 

It definitely would help. Even a playoff appearance would help. As it is we got a mid rotation starter that got us just over .500 and 14 games below .500 and now it looks like he's toast and if he is we're not going to get any value in a trade. Might not even be able to trade him unless we take on pretty much all the money and accept basically nothing in return.

 

But they didn't win the World Series, true. Then again, they never have- which means every contract they ever had in the history of the organization was bad.

 

I guess I don't see the point of signing players like Lohse if you're not going to push all in. What good is signing a 3 win player to a 75 win team if you stop there? You're better off just saving the money and not signing the player, especially when that player costs you a much needed draft pick.

[brewcrewdue80]

The thing with Lohse and giving up the pick is that Melvin could have signed any number of SPs to 1 or 2year deals for half or less money than he paid Lohse for 2013 such as: Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Kevin Correia, Roberto Hernandez, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Kazmir, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard and Joe Saunders. But he didn't.

 

That list is like a horror show of pitching. McCarthy is OK, but now has tommy john. Blanton, Slowey, Bedard, Saunders, and Correia are downright terrible & not even in the majors. Pelfrey was horrific last year with the Twins (I witnessed he and Correia firsthand), but has been ok for a few weeks this season. Kazmir is the only one on the list that rivals Lohse imo.

 

I didn't list these names as 3year deals. Most of them got 1year deals that offseason if not all of them when I looked it up. And that's just it, they all pretty much performed admirably for a 1year contract to be a #4/5 arm that fills innings if needed. Which is what Milw needed as well as that draft pick. The year was 2013 not 2015 which your comment is basing your horror show of pitching on. Go look at the stats they all put up in 2013. While none of them gave 198IP they also weren't 4.5+ERA blowouts. I think I seen all had 120+IP on the season and under 4.5ERA. That 4.5ERA was something we couldn't have guaranteed Lohse of breaking when he signed based on his history. Pretty sure I commented that back then. He was 4.5ERA+ or 3.7ERA and better. Good or disastrous nothing in between which is what those guys would be relied upon as providing. Again, it was the prices for performance and no draft pick cost to your interdivision rival. You get Roberto Hernandez for 6mil, McCarthy for 6.5mil Slowey for under 1mil. We are a Small Market team and that is the type of Inning filling signings they should be making when you need to fill out a rotation or are concerned about the rotation providing you with all the innings you need. Melvin got it wrong and only in trade can he maybe get it right, nevermind the additional cost it was to pay Lohse.

[monty57]

What good is signing a 3 win player to a 75 win team if you stop there?

 

The signing got some additional fans to buy tickets, which is what seems to drive Attanasio, and the expected dropoff of ticket sales going forward is probably the reason the aforementioned Lohse and other expensive players' names have already come up in trade rumors.

 

The Lohse deal was not to popular with many people when it occurred.

 

Thanks for the link Logan. I'll quote myself a couple of times

 

Re Lohse: "Sorry, I was adding a year. I thought he was 35 now, which seems to be the age most pitchers collapse. I feel a little better, but I still don't expect much in year three... really anything better than a "here, we'll pay you not to play" would probably be good. I'm hoping for an ERA sub-4 this year (please!!), sub-5 next year and "don't bring the ship down with you" in the final year."

 

Re "the future" (this was in 2013): "As I said, I want to just focus on this season. Although we're less talented than we were 12 months ago, we still have a shot at the playoffs. Even though we'll be less talented 12 months from now (albeit with a $100MM+ payroll), we may still have a shot at the playoffs next year. I just don't want to think beyond that anymore. It gets me sad, and I want to be excited as a new season is about to begin."

 

Lohse outplayed my expectations last season, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's "hit the cliff" this year. Hopefully he can turn things around at least somewhat, and isn't a 7 ERA guy all year. As to "the future," I think I was pretty easy to see all this coming. I went into a lot more detail in the linked thread, and I think I was pretty spot on.

 

I had forgotten about the CBA rule change regarding the draft, which is probably the reason we started to get better in the drafts. Prior to that, we put all our money to max the MLB payroll, refusing to pay "overslot" value. This led to us settling for "signability" picks, which is probably a big reason we had such terrible results in the draft during our "window" years. Meanwhile, teams like the Pirates took full advantage of the ability to sign good talent later in the draft and pay them more money, building up the farm system they're now feeding off of.

[brewcrewdue80]

But that's just it Monty. So Lohse signing sold a few more tickets. He cost 11mil to do so. How much money was he adding to in ticket sales? Vs any of the 6.5mil or less SPs would have? He'd have to sell 5.5mil or more in money just to offset his cost vs what those others would have cost. I think there's a strong 2mil in attendance whether the team is Playoff bound or winning in the 70s. What kind of seats is the casual fan who's drawn only by competitiveness going to be buying anyway? General admission? Bleachers? Not the field levels most likely when adding 250k-450k at the end of the season in attendance difference. That would be a great figure to be come up with. What 100k in additional vs less attendance is sold among tickets.

[superfly]

Riiiiiight. Because Melvin and MA knew before signing Lohse that Ryan Braun, our league MVP, was going to get suspended for steroid use, and then have a season lost with a weird thumb injury.

 

Lohse was signed to be a QUALITY innings eater and serve as a mid rotation option. Did anyone seriously think the guy was going to carry us to the playoffs? Come on. It's a draft pick...even the mighty Green Bay Packers have had their share of 1st round draft busts.

[reillymcshane]

Out of curiosity, I looked at what the 17th pick in the draft was worth (the pick we gave up for signing Lohse). Used Baseball Reference. They had 50 years of picks listed. I ignored the last 5 years due to the fact those players are just starting to produce.

 

My estimate is that when we signed Lohse, we could have (assuming good health) made a guess at producing 7.0-9.0 WAR. With that in mind, here's a look at the players picked 17th who have a WAR above 5.0 for their career.

 

Player/bWAR

 

Roy Halladay - 64.6

Cole Hamels - 42.7

Gary Matthews - 30.1

Charles Nagy - 25.3

Jeromy Burnitz - 19.7

Cal Eldred - 16.2

Brian McRae - 14.1

Dennis Rasmussen - 11.4

David Murphy - 10.4

A.J. Pollock* - 8.5

Brad Lidge - 8.2

Nick Esasky - 8.2

Steve Brye - 5.5

Don Hood - 5.3

 

Of the 45 players selected 17th, here's some results:

 

- 69% never reaching the big leagues, or were a scrubs (producing anywhere from negative WAR to 3.1 WAR)

- 51% didn't make the majors, or if they did, provide positive WAR

- 18% become scrub major leaguers (0.1 to 3.1 WAR)

- 27% ended up as good or better than Lohse (8 WAR or higher)

- 22% were better than Lohse (10 WAR or higher)

- 11% of an all-star (top five guys made all-star teams)

- 5% chance of getting a superstar (Hamels and Halladay)

 

* I included Pollack in the '10 WAR or higher' group due to his youth, and the prediction he will reach this level of production.

 

I realize this isn't very scientific, but I was sort of wondering what we missed out on with giving up the draft pick for signing Lohse. Essentially, 2/3 of the picks wash out. A small percentage are contributors, but don't reach the level of what was expected of Lohse. Roughly 1/4 of the picks are as good or better than what Lohse was expected to do.

 

Again, this is not designed to show a right or wrong way. Just how things turned out. And even that is flawed (but interesting). There's the simple fact that players produce their WAR over many years. And I assign some anticipated WAR from Lohse - maybe that's too high or two low - and there's no real thought to a potential injury to him. So it's not a great comparison, but it is what it is.

 

Essentially, the Brewers took a 7-9 WAR player and swapped him for a draft pick that had a 1/4 of being as good or better - and varying odds of having the player be a lot better. I don't know what's a better bet. There's that tantalizing chance of landing Roy Halladay - tempered by the fact that 2/3 of the players do squat. What's better?

 

The money is interesting as well. You give up $33M to get the 7-9 WAR (actually a pretty nice deal). How much a player would make (signing bonus for being the 17th pick), and then salaries in arby years, really depends on how good he is.

[brewcrewdue80]

Riiiiiight. Because Melvin and MA knew before signing Lohse that Ryan Braun, our league MVP, was going to get suspended for steroid use, and then have a season lost with a weird thumb injury.

 

Lohse was signed to be a QUALITY innings eater and serve as a mid rotation option. Did anyone seriously think the guy was going to carry us to the playoffs? Come on. It's a draft pick...even the mighty Green Bay Packers have had their share of 1st round draft busts.

 

And the Green Bay Packers play on a level playing field amongst all the NFL. The Brewers do not. Can't be compared on the draft losses of Green Bay's 1st round when they can monetarily cover that loss. And I find it funny that the Packers built their team "Through the draft" consistently having around the youngest team's in all of the NFL.

 

Milw on the other hand being in the middle of Baseball salaries cannot afford to sign FAs like Green Bay or extend an Aaron Rodgers if wanted to record amounts. Due to that, they should be building their successful teams through the draft. As doing so is a cheaper option than signing Aged vets to 11mil per year. What bothers me the most is that Lohse netted the Cardinals that comp pick. It was late March when they signed Lohse, all the club had to do was wait til the June draft to sign him keeping their pick while the Cardinals lost theirs.

 

When Lohse was brought in Milw became a team thought to be around 75wins to maybe 80wins. It's as you said, he was brought in as a quality innings eater. Not a Franchise leading player that the 17th pick could have been.

That 17th pick was Tim Anderson a top 100 prospect today.

18 was Chris Anderson not top 100 yet but this blurp:Both Anderson's slider and changeup have the potential to be solid pitches. His slider climbs into the mid 80s, and his changeup comes with deceptive arm speed and fade. He could be a frontline starter if he refines his control, and a closer if he doesn't.

19 was Marco Gonzales StL's top 100 prospect with ML experience already.

 

Those 3 alone sound like better to build around than Lohse was to fill out the ML roster at over 10% the team's payroll.

 

Corey Seager/Michael Wacha were 18/19 in 2012. Lucas Giolito 16 If say some team signed lohse drafting ahead of Milw

Sonny Gray was 18 in 2011. CJ Cron 17

 

Those are some strong arms teams built around(one being StL)

If only the Lohse signing was for him to be a quality innings eater SP, then that makes the decision even worse. He was brought in clearly for Milw to contend for not only the Playoffs but the Division title. It's the only way to justify making that signing, and it's failed to accomplish that.

[Ennder]

If the best we can hope for is a hot streak that gets us to around .500 at the all-star break and maybe we can possibly make a playoff run then I think we are really grasping for straws here. The team as it is set up now is not a team that can consistently win. It hasn't been a team that has been set up to consistently win for as long as I can remember. It's been a team that took a shot in 2008 and another one in 2011.

 

This is a team that from 2008 (Braun's start) until the all star break of last year had the 8th most wins of any team in the league and 2nd most in the division. Every year since 2007 we have come into spring training knowing the team at least has a shot at the playoffs and then anything can happen. It is probably the best 10 year stretch in team history. That is with Braun's various issues that probably cost the team at least 3 wins a year the past 2 years now. I have no problems with how much talent has been on this team in recent history whatsoever.

 

Lohse was brought in Milw became a team thought to be around 75wins to maybe 80wins

 

This statement is also not really factually correct, at no point in the past 10 years have the Brewers had a 75 win team going into the season. They might have had a 75 win result due to things out of their control but they were always better than that talent wise.

 

It very well may be time to rebuild but this past decade has been anything but a failure for this franchise.

[brewcrewdue80]

Sorry Ennder I was suggesting Vegas O/U odds. Probably a 75.5 to 79.5 when Lohse signed. I just remember the Brewers pretty much being O/U the last 3 years under 80 wins.

[RobertR]

It would have helped in Lohse's tenure if there weren't historically awful first baseman on the team. Honestly, I've no issue with the signing of Lohse. He performed well the first two years and he might still turn things around and fetch something at the deadline.

 

Meanwhile, it was a weak draft. I don't see much on the board where the Brewers would have drafted that looks like its going to make an impact.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Major_League_Baseball_Draft

 

Arguably, the Brewers gave up not much in value in that draft pick.

[pacopete4]

No matter the argument anyone makes here it will not change those people's opinions who see draft picks as the end all for building a team nor will it change the opinion of someone who is okay with giving up a draft pick for a steady, above average pitcher for 2-3 years.

[Ennder]

Sorry Ennder I was suggesting Vegas O/U odds. Probably a 75.5 to 79.5 when Lohse signed. I just remember the Brewers pretty much being O/U the last 3 years under 80 wins.

 

Vegas odds are built to promote betting. Baseballprospectus has generally pegged the team as low 80s wins since Fielder left the team. It is heavily regressed so that generally means 'in the playoff mix'. Last year they actually got over a 90% playoff odds at one point, it took a really huge collapse to not make it. A collapse largely caused by most of the lineup getting nagging injuries at the same time, not due to lack of talent.

[jerichoholicninja]

No matter the argument anyone makes here it will not change those people's opinions who see draft picks as the end all for building a team nor will it change the opinion of someone who is okay with giving up a draft pick for a steady, above average pitcher for 2-3 years.

 

If you go back and read the original Lohse signing thread I was hardcore against it and said some very mean things about him and the Brewers organization. However, watching him pitch has changed my mind. If I look at it as simply the numbers Lohse out up, he was worth the money and the pick. When considering the fact that it didn't even lead to a Brewer's playoff appearance, though, it maybe wasn't the best use of resources. Not that I have any faith in this organization that they would have drafted the right player and developed him correctly though.

[monty57]

No matter the argument anyone makes here it will not change those people's opinions who see draft picks as the end all for building a team nor will it change the opinion of someone who is okay with giving up a draft pick for a steady, above average pitcher for 2-3 years.

 

Nor will it change the fact that when the contract was signed Lohse was already at an age where most players have retired, and he was signed to a 3-year deal, taking him to an age that gave him a really good chance of falling apart before the contract ended. That he pitched as well as he did his first two years has defied the odds. It was far from certain that they were signing a "steady, above average pitcher for 2-3 years."

 

Had the Brewers signed a pitcher similar to Lohse, who was 28-years old to the same deal, I doubt many people would have been too upset. Had they signed him to a shorter deal, it would have made more sense. At the time of the signing, I figured we'd probably cut him in his final year, eating his salary while he faded into retirement just like all the other 30-something FA pitchers we've signed to multi-year deals. If he does better than that, I guess we "win."

 

If Melvin continues to sign average-ish 30-something year old pitchers to 3-4 year deals, we will continue to get a year or two of decent pitching followed by a year or two of a worthless over-the-hill lump, and I'd guess we'll still have people giving all sorts of justifications as to how it's worth it to waste money in the final year(s).

 

To date, Lohse has turned out to be one of the better of the 30-something free agents Melvin/Attanasio has signed, but I can't agree that it's a good long-term strategy that should be continued. That this particular deal also cost us a draft pick is just icing on the cake for me.