Open for business (part 1)

[reillymcshane]

Heyman's new article has quotes from Melvin saying that he is pretty much open to anything, but trading Lucroy and Segura would be the most difficult, with Lucroy likely the most 'untouchable' of any player on the team.

 

"Those are two tough positions to fill," Melvin said. "I guess you have to be open to everything. But you'd have to be overwhelmed."

 

The big news would be making Gomez available, as he's a premium talent.

 

With all the pitching injuries, Lohse would have some interest, despite his rough start. Garza would be a tough sell due to his large contract and diminished performance. The usual suspects (Broxton, K-Rod, Parra) would probably find trade partners.

 

One other interesting note was a comment about Scooter - it looks like the Angels inquired about him this past off season. I suspect it happened after we acquired Sardinas - perhaps the Angels thought he would become our 2B, thus making Scooter available. But that's just a guess.

 

I hope Melvin keeps an open mind regarding Lucroy and Segura. It doesn't hurt to listen to offers.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25177627/inside-baseball-trade-possibilities-for-likely-seller-brewers-plus-more-mlb-news

[splitterpfj]

Take a look at the trade the Cubs made with Oakland last year - Hammel and Samardzija for Oakland's best two prospects at the time, and Dan Straily.

 

Addison Russell is already in Chicago, and outfielder Billy McKinney is in High-A, with a .949 OPS at the moment - that's the kind of deal that we're all hoping for.

 

If Kyle Lohse gets going, the Brewers can offer Gomez and Lohse, for a package like that one. Gomez is a stud, on a nice contract, who is signed through next year. Lohse, is a good, dependable pitcher, who is signed through this year....as I said, this hinges on Lohse's performance.

 

I have no idea if LA would have interest in Gomez, since they have Pedersen in that spot in the first place, but supposing they did, my compare for that deal is Gomez and Lohse for Pedersen and Grant Holmes.

 

Holmes is an excellent prospect, who is years away, as was McKinney - Russell was an elite prospect at the time, as is Pedersen now, the difference being Pedersen is already in LA, not nearing MLB.

 

Gomez and Lohse have to play well, and LA has to want Gomez out there for this idea to work, but even if it's not LA, this is the sort of deal that may be possible later in the season. The Brewers are saying they won't deal Lucroy, and they probably won't move Segura, which makes Gomez easily the primary target for other teams, and of course the Brewers would deal Lohse, since he's a pending free agent on a team that needs to get younger now.

 

Root for Lohse, and heck add Aramis, Parra and Broxton to the list - someone who gets hot and fills a need for the rest of the season somewhere. If the Brewers have that second piece they may get two top prospects, if they don't the offers may be one top prospect and some maybes. If it's the latter, I hope the Brewers keep Gomez until the winter, and then try again.

[FVBrewerFan]

KRod is under-valued too. There is always a team or two who really needs a closer down the stretch, and KRod is a proven commodity. Will he blow a save here and there? Sure, they all do. But for the most part, he's a veteran closer that's "been there, done that." I hope they don't settle for a Delmonico type guy, they should be able to get a top prospect for him.

 

Lind is another guy who could be more valuable than we think, if there's a few teams looking for a LH bat.

 

No matter how hot Lohse is, he still is nothing more than a #4/5 starter for a true contending team so I wouldn't expect a big return.

 

splitter makes a good point, with some of these guys they don't need to jump on just any offer at the deadline. They have the hot stove league to maybe put together a bigger trade with guys like Gomez, Segura, Scooter, Garza,...whoever they want to put on the table. I still believe Braun can be part of that if he can put together an .800+ OPS year.

[bill hAll Star]

I have no idea if LA would have interest in Gomez, since they have Pedersen in that spot in the first place, but supposing they did, my compare for that deal is Gomez and Lohse for Pedersen and Grant Holmes.

 

I'm never saying never, because when he's right, Gomez is the best of the bunch, but they already have:

 

CF: Pederson

RF: Puig

LF: Ethier (coming back around)/Van Slyke platoon

 

With Carl Crawford as an expensive, yet capable rotation guy and are trying to find ABs for Alex Guerrero out there.

 

The Dodgers are tough to trade with because it feels like they have minimal needs other than more pitching. 3B/SS could be improved but they have highly paid veterans there already and have their "next up" waiting in the wings for next year either in AA/AAA or Guerrero up in the majors right now.

[reillymcshane]

I think the Dodgers may be a tougher nut to crack with the management team in place. I think those guys are going to value their top flight minor leaguers. That said, you never know.

 

I'd love Hoffman. He's coming off TJ and low in the system, so it might be the kind of big upside player who a team would be willing to give up (especially a pitcher). Guys who are ready to contribute in the majors are harder to give up (not impossible to give up, but harder).

[bill hAll Star]

I feel like Garza is being a bit undervalued in some of these articles. Yeah, he's not a front-line starter, but if he was hypothetically a free agent after 2015, he'd probably still find a 3 year/35 million dollar deal or maybe even get a 4th year.

 

It seems as though his option may vest, so he's got 3 left after this.

 

Garza will be a bit different type of a trade. He'll be going to somebody like the Astros or Mariners who think they are on the rise this year but still think they have a 2-3 (or more) year window after this. He's not a "get you over the top" guy, and he's not somebody that the Dodgers and Yankees may drool over as much because they know they could just sign somebody like him next year, though those teams aren't out of the question either.

 

Brewers could offer to pay this year's salary and maybe a small fraction of next year's. That way, the other team is getting him for below market cost. In return they could send 1-2 guys that are higher up in the minors or older for their class that are likely just good depth guys but have lower ceilings. I feel like teams are less willing to part with stud prospects or even high-ceiling, yet low-level prospects for a guy like Garza. Maybe the Brewers strike gold and get a very good all-around player like Kiermaier (note: not Kiermaier, but a trade for somebody with his pedigree and 2 years behind in progression) or a Kole Calhoun. By that, I mean prospects that are not bursting at the seams with high-level upside but provide a very nice WAR either with great defense and solid hitting like Kiermaier or being a very good hitter like Calhoun. Of course, in this box of goodies there could be a Logan Schafer as well.

[monty57]

I kind of like all of this attention surrounding the potential Brewer selloff. The more GM's drooling over the guys the Brewers could put on the market, the better chance a bidding war kicks in and the Brewers are able to get more value back.

[reillymcshane]

I kind of like all of this attention surrounding the potential Brewer selloff. The more GM's drooling over the guys the Brewers could put on the market, the better chance a bidding war kicks in and the Brewers are able to get more value back.

Exactly.

 

Right now, there is no market. Teams aren't trading players. We own the hot stove.

 

With that in mind, you start the trading process now. Don't wait two months to see if we can get back in the playoff race. This doesn't mean you have to deal someone - but it leaves the option open. Teams can overspend to acquire a player early - the A's got Samardzija last year at the all-star break. The Brewers did the same thing to get Sabathia back in 2008. In both cases, each team was willing to overspend to make the deal happen then and there instead of waiting until the end of July. It only takes one team to get antsy and pay a premium for a player. Again, you don't have to make a deal early (you don't even have to make a deal this season if there's nothing good on the table). But if a good offer is put on the table, don't be afraid to make the move.

[monty57]

I kind of like all of this attention surrounding the potential Brewer selloff. The more GM's drooling over the guys the Brewers could put on the market, the better chance a bidding war kicks in and the Brewers are able to get more value back.

Exactly.

 

Right now, there is no market. Teams aren't trading players. We own the hot stove.

 

With that in mind, you start the trading process now. Don't wait two months to see if we can get back in the playoff race. This doesn't mean you have to deal someone - but it leaves the option open. Teams can overspend to acquire a player early - the A's got Samardzija last year at the all-star break. The Brewers did the same thing to get Sabathia back in 2008. In both cases, each team was willing to overspend to make the deal happen then and there instead of waiting until the end of July. It only takes one team to get antsy and pay a premium for a player. Again, you don't have to make a deal early (you don't even have to make a deal this season if there's nothing good on the table). But if a good offer is put on the table, don't be afraid to make the move.

 

It also eliminates the possibility of an injury taking someone off the market. Plus, for someone like Lohse, GMs may still believe he's just going through a rough patch and will revert to his normal self. That may happen, or he may have hit a cliff. If I'm the Brewers and I get a good offer for Lohse, I trade him ASAP in case he doesn't regain his form. Ditto Ramirez. We may be able to convince someone he's just off to one of his normal slow starts before he puts up All Star numbers, but not if he's still hitting poorly at the deadline.

 

As a whole, the team should trade a lot of players, but each player will be a unique case. Some may be better to trade immediately, while others probably make sense to hold off on (like Garza, who won't get much now, but could be in demand at the deadline or in the offseason if he starts pitching well).

[3and2Fastball]

With how many pitchers are going down with injuries in MLB already this year, I think some of the posters here are grossly underestimating the trade value of Lohse & Garza. Factor in that in recent years there are way more buyers than sellers at the trade deadline and those two could actually bring back some fairly strong prospects.

[FVBrewerFan]

Not that you want to reach for prospects, but it would be nice if we can get some "lefthandedness" into the system. You look at the Brewers from MLB down to rookie ball and there is a very little in the way of LH talent- either on the mound or position players.

[TheCrew07]

Not that you want to reach for prospects, but it would be nice if we can get some "lefthandedness" into the system. You look at the Brewers from MLB down to rookie ball and there is a very little in the way of LH talent- either on the mound or position players.

 

Chris Mehring (the T-Rats broadcaster) pointed out during a game recently that the Rattlers had something like 6 lefties in the line-up, I was surprised by that even though I had watched all of those guys bat this year. I started going down the list and Denson, DeMuth, Neuhaus, Meyer, McCall, Leal, and Munoz are all lefties and Gennett was rehabbing with them at the time as well. Somehow it hadn't gotten through to me that the Brewers had begun to address that issue.

 

I agree that some impact lefties, both pitching and hitting, would be huge.

[reillymcshane]

With how many pitchers are going down with injuries in MLB already this year, I think some of the posters here are grossly underestimating the trade value of Lohse & Garza. Factor in that in recent years there are way more buyers than sellers at the trade deadline and those two could actually bring back some fairly strong prospects.

I think it all depends on how well those two guys can start playing.

 

Justin Masterson was playing poorly last year, then at the deadline netted OF James Ramsey from the Cardinals. Ramsey is a solid, but unspectacular prospect. Sort of a C+/B- type guy. That's just one example. Nothing wrong with that kind of player - some really can blossom into starters. Others can be contribute as back ups, relief arms. You need those kind of guys to pan out.

 

As some people have argued, the team could target players deeper in the minors - guys who might have more upside, but being so young are hard to judge.

 

Garza, I think, is tougher to trade due to his contract. He really needs to pitch better to attract a suitor. No one wants to take on $30M in salary for a guy like him unless they feel he's going to play better. Lohse has a nice track record of 4-5 years of solid pitching, plus the expiring contract. He's not a big risk for a team. He's been pitching better, so someone could see him as a nice option due to the short term commitment. It can't hurt either that he's a solid hitter, plus has a good rep as a the kind of guy who has a positive influence on other pitchers.

 

Let's hope clubs need the arms - the more tight races, the better. It will only boost the value of these guys.

[LouisEly]

Garza, I think, is tougher to trade due to his contract. He really needs to pitch better to attract a suitor. No one wants to take on $30M in salary for a guy like him unless they feel he's going to play better.

 

Porcello got 6 years and almost $20M/year this offseason. Yes, he was only 26, but he had a career ERA of 4.30 and 5.6 K/9. Garza has a career ERA of 3.83 and 7.5 K/9. Two years of Garza for $30M is a freakin' bargain compared to what Boston gave Porcello. Good luck finding someone of Garza's caliber in the free agent market for less than $30M.

 

Look at what Milwaukee got for Gallardo, who only had one year left on his contract.

[homer]

Garza, I think, is tougher to trade due to his contract. He really needs to pitch better to attract a suitor. No one wants to take on $30M in salary for a guy like him unless they feel he's going to play better.

 

Porcello got 6 years and almost $20M/year this offseason. Yes, he was only 26, but he had a career ERA of 4.30 and 5.6 K/9. Garza has a career ERA of 3.83 and 7.5 K/9. Two years of Garza for $30M is a freakin' bargain compared to what Boston gave Porcello. Good luck finding someone of Garza's caliber in the free agent market for less than $30M.

 

Look at what Milwaukee got for Gallardo, who only had one year left on his contract.

 

 

yeah there is a premium on starting pitching. If you can guarantee "average" people will pay big bucks. That's why it's so important to have young, cheap starting pitching. Problem is that developing young, cheap starters is almost a crap shoot.

[brewmann04]

hope Melvin has extra battries for his Cell Phone

[SoupTown]

Hooray for Garza love. I think he is a bargain. And I thought he had some upside. But I not realise how old he is now (31?). He is solid. And he is cheap for solid. And his contract has a sneaky $5 mill team option for 2018 if he misses significant time the year before. He is still a possible keep for us, if we want to be contenders in 2018. But, balanced thinking tells me he gets enough now to help us in 2018-2021. I am all for just picking up lots of prospects and see who sticks.

 

Also, the solid, solid starting pitchers we are seeing at AA and A+, is making me think in a couple of years we will indeed have some decent MLB starters at 500k year. So perhaps we dont need a $13 mill 'solid' starter in 2015/6/7, just to have him in 2018.

 

Ok, I have convinced myself, Garza is on the block.

[MrTPlush]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/5-impact-mlb-trade-ideas-that-actually-could-happen/ss-BBjjdWE#image=6

 

Here is am article for anyone bored and wanting to see something related to the Brewers not about losing.

 

Regarding Segura- Mets make sense...but I'd think Molina is horribly low. Desperate mid season buyers I think Matz seems more in line.

 

Regarding Louse- Yup...seems about the best we could hope for.

[SRB]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/5-impact-mlb-trade-ideas-that-actually-could-happen/ss-BBjjdWE#image=6

 

Here is am article for anyone bored and wanting to see something related to the Brewers not about losing.

 

Regarding Segura- Mets make sense...but I'd think Molina is horribly low. Desperate mid season buyers I think Matz seems more in line.

 

Regarding Louse- Yup...seems about the best we could hope for.

 

Guess the author is a Mets fan, that return is laughable. All three of Matz, Montero, and Molina would be a more realistic asking price for Segura.

[MrTPlush]

Guess the author is a Mets fan, that return is laughable. All three of Matz, Montero, and Molina would be a more realistic asking price for Segura.

 

Agreed. Matz plus some lower guys would make a lot of sense for both sides. Brewers get an MLB ready lefty starter and the Mets get the cheap controllable SS they have wanted since Reyes left. If the Mets continue to lead the NL East I could see it for sure.

[brewcrewdue80]

Big fan of Garza still with what should be an easy affordable contract for any SP of his caliber. He's making less than Gallardo this year. He was someone predicted to sign for 4/64mil not 4/50mil with a heckuva team friendly injury/minimum Starts clause to make it even cheaper. Even at the highest with paying the full clause it's cheaper for 5years than predicted for his 4year projected deal. There's nothing really to be cause for concern when looking at Fangraphs. Higher Groundball %. The Runs are of the HR/FB%/higher linedrive %. Pretty easy to think he'll correct the numbers and reduce what he's performed to thus far. A Fastball that is above average generally, but below avg this year? Not lossed velocity on it. So just location on a FB and he's back to being a high quality #3 if not low end #2.

 

As to that Mets article proposal. Yeesh! What would the writer then ask for Wilmer Flores? Guess one of Johnny Hellweg or Kyle Wren would do? That's about the comparison I'm reading. Same thing with Kyle Lohse. Chris Reed or Austin Barnes. Projected below avg Major League players. You gotta give up more than that if you're taking Lohse as your Playoff contending SP for the remainder of the season. Maybe Both but not one or the other. And I'd rather sit for a better offer than taking 2 with lower upside in talent. The read on Jose De Leon is the type that sounds like a deal for a trade.

[The stache]

Looks guys, this is much ado about nothing. We're 30 games into the season. There are 130 games left. That's a lot of baseball to be played, and the Brewers have played much better of late. This teams is showing that it could be a .500 team when Lucroy comes back. That's not great, but it's not terrible, either. If you can win as many as you lose, and make up a game occasionally, a team can overcome a terrible start, in much the same way that they can overcome a great start and collapse at the end.

 

I am highly concerned with the thinking that the Brewers should trade away their only bankable players, the guys that make this team worth watching, because of the man in charge. Say we do trade Gomez, and Lucroy, Segura and a few of the pitchers we have. Do we seriously expect that Doug Melvin will find anywhere near equal value in these young guys, guys that will be a few years away from even making the Major League roster, much less helping the team to win? He's had an awful lot of first round draft picks in the last five to ten years that will never sniff the Majors. If he is the problem in the organization (which I strongly believe is the case), then dumping the good players we have now for a bunch of bad players, and possibly a few good ones much later, isn't an attractive option to me. It makes me worry about the very future of this franchise.

 

Mark A. is not happy with the team's performance this season, but we're still drawing fans at the gate. How happy do you think he'll be if we're no longer drawing 2.5 to 3 million a season at home? Because, if we trade Lucroy, and Gomez, and a few of the other guys that make this game fun to watch when we are playing well, that income stream will disappear, and then we'll be left with a GM that has never won anything of note in three decades in a position of authority, and a bunch of draft picks that said GM won't know how to use. Where does that leave the franchise?

 

I don't want to do any kind of a talent dump while the man at the top doesn't know what he's doing. And as long as Melvin is in charge, this man who has won exactly one playoff series in 28 years as an assistant General Manager/General Manager, that is precisely what we have.

 

Until Mark A. realizes how terrible Doug Melvin is, this franchise is not going to get appreciably better. It kills me to say it, but has Melvin done anything of late that gives any of us the impression that things are improving? He's canned the manager this year, and a couple of coaches last year. Are we better off now than we were?

[trwi7]

Looks guys, this is much ado about nothing. We're 30 games into the season. There are 130 games left. That's a lot of baseball to be played, and the Brewers have played much better of late. This teams is showing that it could be a .500 team when Lucroy comes back. That's not great, but it's not terrible, either. If you can win as many as you lose, and make up a game occasionally, a team can overcome a terrible start, in much the same way that they can overcome a great start and collapse at the end.

 

The Brewers are 9-21. We're already 13.5 games back in the division a little over a month into the season. We're already 6.5 back of the final wildcard spot and that's with teams with a ton of talent like Washington still playing .500 ball.

 

I am highly concerned with the thinking that the Brewers should trade away their only bankable players, the guys that make this team worth watching, because of the man in charge. Say we do trade Gomez, and Lucroy, Segura and a few of the pitchers we have. Do we seriously expect that Doug Melvin will find anywhere near equal value in these young guys, guys that will be a few years away from even making the Major League roster, much less helping the team to win? He's had an awful lot of first round draft picks in the last five to ten years that will never sniff the Majors. If he is the problem in the organization (which I strongly believe is the case), then dumping the good players we have now for a bunch of bad players, and possibly a few good ones much later, isn't an attractive option to me. It makes me worry about the very future of this franchise.

 

I am highly concerned with people that think "it's still early" and "we can come back" and "what about the fans coming to the park?"

 

The losses in fans coming to the park is offset by getting rid of bigger salary players. As far as Melvin finding equal value for these players. I think he did a good job in getting value for Gallardo. Don't really want him to remain GM but if he's allowed to trade players and look for the highest upside prospects he can get, I think he'll do a decent job.

 

Why the hell are you talking about Melvin and draft picks. HE DOESN'T DRAFT PLAYERS! We now have a new scouting director who had success here and then took that success to Arizona where he also had success.

 

Mark A. is not happy with the team's performance this season, but we're still drawing fans at the gate. How happy do you think he'll be if we're no longer drawing 2.5 to 3 million a season at home? Because, if we trade Lucroy, and Gomez, and a few of the other guys that make this game fun to watch when we are playing well, that income stream will disappear, and then we'll be left with a GM that has never won anything of note in three decades in a position of authority, and a bunch of draft picks that said GM won't know how to use. Where does that leave the franchise?

 

This team has never drawn less than 20,992 fans per game at Miller Park. That was a 94 loss season that came right after a 106 loss season. But like I said earlier, getting rid of higher priced players and lowering the payroll will offset any loss of revenue from less fans showing up.

 

As far as where it leaves the franchise. Not wallowing away in mediocrity? Yeah we'll suck but at least the fans will have some hope that we won't just continue in an endless cycle of mediocrity.

[logan82]

I still believe Mark didn't allowed Doug to do his job the way he wanted for a few years. There has been a definite shift in how things were handled over the last year. I don't think we would have traded a guy like Gallardo a couple years ago. We would have hung onto him and let him walk at the end of the year. The last few drafts were an improvement as well. The man at the top doesn't know what he is doing so hopefully he will let Doug do his job.

[superfly]

Looks guys, this is much ado about nothing. We're 30 games into the season. There are 130 games left. That's a lot of baseball to be played, and the Brewers have played much better of late. This teams is showing that it could be a .500 team when Lucroy comes back. That's not great, but it's not terrible, either. If you can win as many as you lose, and make up a game occasionally, a team can overcome a terrible start, in much the same way that they can overcome a great start and collapse at the end.

 

The Brewers are 9-21. We're already 13.5 games back in the division a little over a month into the season. We're already 6.5 back of the final wildcard spot and that's with teams with a ton of talent like Washington still playing .500 ball.

 

I am highly concerned with people that think "it's still early" and "we can come back" and "what about the fans coming to the park?"

 

11-21 and 6 games back now (gained 2 on the Cards this weekend). 7-4 in their last 11 games, with 2 series wins (@CHC, vsCHC) and a split (vsLAD).

 

If you cannot see a difference in this teams effort and results since Counsell took over and the stale voice was removed you must be blind. The team is now hitting, and just waiting for the pitching to come around.

 

It is too early to make a decision on where to take the team yet, come back in June and revisit the situation once Lucroy, Gomez, and Ramirez are healthy and have had a chance to get in a groove..