Open for business (part 1)

[Oldcity]

The main prize in the Greinke trade was Jean Segura, who was up within a year. The main prize in the Samardzija trade last year was Addison Russell, who was up within a year. The Cubs got Mike Olt, who was up within a year. The Royals get MLB ready Alcides Escobar plus other top prospects for two years of Greinke. Wil Myers was up right away for Tampa after the Shields trade.

 

It is very possible to get impact prospects that are about a year away from breaking into the big leagues for guys like Lucroy, Gomez and maybe even Lind. If they get a few of them, why couldn't there be signs of life in the big leagues by 2017? People have already gone over the Brewers own prospects who should be up by then.

[Raw Biz]

EDIT: Please note I didn't consider secondary pieces in a Lucroy or Gomez trade. Either could easily bring back another prized piece to add to the pool.

 

That's where I think the key lies. We could get a guy in A ball now who may be on the cusp of dominance of getting promoted in 2017/2018. Maybe someone similar to what Coulter/Arcia was coming into last season. This also isn't taking into consideration someone we could get for Lohse or Garza. If we're out of it next year, we could even get something valuable for Lind.

 

EDIT: Oldcity, Get out of my head.

[monty57]

People comparing the Brewers situation to the Cubs or Astros of a few years ago are off base. Neither of those teams had one trade chip on the level of Gomez or Lucroy, let alone two. They each had awful contracts to get out from under as well.

 

Trading Gomez and Lucroy would get 4-5 great prospects. You don't need much more than that to have a new wave of talent come through. It would be this year and next, and by 2017 many of them would already be in the big leagues. It's not a long-term thing they'd be looking at.

 

This is why I hope they're willing to part with Gomez. It looks like Lucroy's off the table, so we'll have his "face" trying to sell tickets for two years instead of bringing back prospects who can help with the rebuild. Trading Lohse, K-Rod, etc may bring something, but it's unlikely they'll bring back top prospects. If all we do is trade them (holding on to both Gomez and Lucroy), then we really won't have helped the future much at all, and pretty soon we will have lost the opportunity to trade Gomez and Lucroy for the value of which you speak. Then we will be in an even tougher situation.

 

As to the time frame, it was Melvin who said he felt a rebuild, if started after our window of 2011-2012, would have taken around four years, but by delaying it, could take around six years. Those were his words (including his belief that the window was '11-'12). I hope it can be quicker than that, and I think if done correctly we should at least be on the "upward trend" side of the rebuild in a couple of years.

 

But to the point of comparison to the Cubs. In 2010 - the first bad year as their "window" was closing, they had a young Geovany Soto at catcher posting a .890 OPS, 135 OPS+, Derrick Lee coming off a .972 OPS season in 2009 , rookie phenom Starlin Castro, Fukudome posting a .809 OPS, Ryan Dempster (ERA+ 110), Gorzellany (ERA+ 104), Zambrano (ERA+ 127), Lilly (ERA+ 115) in the starting rotation and Carlos Marmol (ERA+ 167!!) and Marshall (ERA+ 160!!) in the bullpen.

 

They could have brought back huge returns if they had decided to rebuild a short time before they did. Holding on, refusing to believe that playing for a "window" will eventually lead to a rebuild, can cost you. The longer you wait, the costlier it can get, and the deeper the rebuild will cut. Even with that lost time, however, the rebuild took 2012, 2013 and 2014, and they are now bearing the fruits of their rebuild. It just seems like a lot longer than that because for a couple of years prior to their admitting that they needed a rebuild, they were an expensive team with declining talent that refused to admit anything was wrong. Much like the Brewers, only the Cubs figured it out in two years, and it has taken the Brewers four (assuming they have actually figured it out).

 

My biggest fear is that they will let ticket sales projections determine their path (as the recent Melvin quote suggests). They will only trade guys who are going to be free agents (mostly for salary relief), sign Uribe this offseason and try to convince people that they have solved the problem. This path will still remind me of the Cubs, just not in the time frame I just discussed. This will remind me of the Cubs I grew up with who for decades ran a strategy of putting enough "names" on the field that fans will show up, while not really having much chance of ever winning anything.

[MrTPlush]

EDIT: Please note I didn't consider secondary pieces in a Lucroy or Gomez trade. Either could easily bring back another prized piece to add to the pool.

 

That's where I think the key lies. We could get a guy in A ball now who may be on the cusp of dominance of getting promoted in 2017/2018. Maybe someone similar to what Coulter/Arcia was coming into last season. This also isn't taking into consideration someone we could get for Lohse or Garza. If we're out of it next year, we could even get something valuable for Lind.

 

EDIT: Oldcity, Get out of my head.

 

Right, there are a lot of wild card prospects that may end up being something. Lohse, Ramirez, Garza, and Lind all have value that could get decent prospects if traded. The Brewers will have a lot more money come 2018 than they have now which could really shake things up.

 

Really tough to figure out the time frame for a rebuild before this trade deadline and whenever Gomez is traded. A lot of variance on what people think we can get for some of our lesser guys and whether we can land a mega prospect for Gomez makes a big difference.

[Oldcity]

Lohse, Ramirez, Garza are spare parts. They won't get much more than salary relief for them. If Lohse pitches better, they could maybe get something of value.

[ewitkows]

Even if they do blow it up , Braun and Garza are the only ones on a big money contract after this year. If the team tanks and goes with low priced FA and farm hands for a couple of years the Brewers should still be ok. Keep a 50-60 mil payroll and even sucking I bet we draw 1.5 milion

[ewitkows]

Even if they do blow it up , Braun and Garza are the only ones on a big money contract after this year. If the team tanks and goes with low priced FA and farm hands for a couple of years the Brewers should still be ok. Keep a 50-60 mil payroll and even sucking I bet we draw 1.5 milion

[wildcat2237]

The main prize in the Greinke trade was Jean Segura, who was up within a year. The main prize in the Samardzija trade last year was Addison Russell, who was up within a year. The Cubs got Mike Olt, who was up within a year. The Royals get MLB ready Alcides Escobar plus other top prospects for two years of Greinke. Wil Myers was up right away for Tampa after the Shields trade.

 

It is very possible to get impact prospects that are about a year away from breaking into the big leagues for guys like Lucroy, Gomez and maybe even Lind. If they get a few of them, why couldn't there be signs of life in the big leagues by 2017? People have already gone over the Brewers own prospects who should be up by then.

 

This is the best post I have read on here in a while. This is why I said if we are trading Lucroy we are getting Seager or Urias plus a bunch of mid level Brantly/Lorenzo Cain type guys.

 

Gomez, Lucroy and Peralta all have this type of value. I hope to all heaven that the comments about Lucroy being untouchable are similar to the comments earlier this year that Melvin and Attanasio were not talking about a managerial shakeup.

 

I love watching Lucory and Gomez, but this FRANCHISE cannot afford to let them leave without bringing back major talent.

[SoupTown]

Was it this thread or another where Doug said revenue was attendance driven - so they cannot afford a big rebuild. But maybe he is wrong. If 3 mill fans allows a $110 payroll, does it follow that 1.5 mill fans allows a profitable team at $55 mill. I think it may be easy to be at say $60 mill after this year, if they go the full rebuild.

 

I am keeping Garza because of the 2018 option. Lucroy has the 2017 option. Gomez must go for sure, only here through 2016. Lucroy is the line ball guy. The management really need to decided if 2017 is a possibility or if it is 2018. We need to also note that Maldonado is such a good defensive catcher, that in rebuild mode that is just fine.

[nodakfan17]

Melvin was on the big 920 yesterday (1070 for those Hawings of you in Madison) and basically refused to use the word rebuild.

 

Stating, among other things (and I'm paraphrasing here) "As a franchise we cannot afford to rebuild, our revenue stream is mostly driven by our fanbase coming to the ballpark, unlike other teams who's revenue is driven by television deals. We can retool, but we can't afford to do what the Cubs did and have a multiple year rebuilding process"

Do you think that Wisconsin's unique "tailgate culture" could sustain the Brewers through a pair of lean years? I travel from Green Bay a few times every season because attending Brewer games is fun. I look back on the last 10 years and I can only think of a few instances where I have been motivated to attend an extra game because of the performance of the team.

[Invader3K]

Do you think that Wisconsin's unique "tailgate culture" could sustain the Brewers through a pair of lean years? I travel from Green Bay a few times every season because attending Brewer games is fun. I look back on the last 10 years and I can only think of a few instances where I have been motivated to attend an extra game because of the performance of the team.

 

To a point, yes. Over the last ten years, going to Miller Park has become a "cool" thing to do, with tailgating being a huge part of it. Look how many buses loaded with people from bars and such you see at any given game nowadays. You didn't used to see that pre-2006 or so.

 

If they do decide to trade off some guys and can successfully sell it as a retooling/reloading instead of the dreaded "rebuilding" word, the franchise should be fine.

[superfly]

So the Pirates are a whopping 3 games better than us right now...does that mean THEY should blow it all up too? Way too much hoping going on here for a massive rebuild...it isn't happening.

[brewmann04]

I wonder if the Brewer fans are over value some of the potential pieces.

I think the two biggest chips are Lucroy and Gomez but can you afford to trade both.

[monty57]

If 3 mill fans allows a $110 payroll, does it follow that 1.5 mill fans allows a profitable team at $55 mill. I think it may be easy to be at say $60 mill after this year, if they go the full rebuild.

 

No, it's not overly complex, but it's not quite that simple. First, the team has to pay costs such as debt repayment, utilities bills, vendors and their inventory, etc. Then they have to figure out the cost of the farm, which is very likely to go up if we're putting more emphasis on building it up, and we get some better draft picks and a bigger pool for international signings. What is left over after all other costs are paid is what can be budgeted for the MLB team payroll. The rate it drops will probably be greater than the rate of attendance falling.

 

That said, I think the Brewers will be fine. Since Miller Park was built, they have been under 2MM fans only twice (the 2nd and 3rd year of the park's existence - there was a huge spike the year it opened). At that time, much of the fan base hated the Seligs and simply refused to spend their money on the team. We are nowhere near that point right now, and I would be shocked if the attendance fell below 2MM, and it would probably take a long, unsuccessful rebuild to get it that low.

 

I truly believe the bigger risk is in putting out a low-70s win team every year. In recent years, we've seen a fairly substantial drop in attendance in down years as fans are bored with the "same old" and only show up late in the season if the team is winning. This will eventually lead to a lot of fans leaving forever, and a new "baseline" attendance far below what we're used to. A rebuild done correctly will give fans something to be excited about. Attendance will naturally drop off for a year or two, but I believe those fans will come back as soon as the exciting young players start to show up at the MLB level, and we'll be back in the high 2MM's on a regular basis if they show any signs of competency.

[brewmann04]

I was watching last night game and know it a wed night but there seemed to be plenty of seats available.

[MrTPlush]

So the Pirates are a whopping 3 games better than us right now...does that mean THEY should blow it all up too? Way too much hoping going on here for a massive rebuild...it isn't happening.

 

Oh great a couple wins and the rose colored glasses are coming out.

[monty57]

So the Pirates are a whopping 3 games better than us right now...does that mean THEY should blow it all up too? Way too much hoping going on here for a massive rebuild...it isn't happening.

 

Give us their young (MLB and farm) players and we'll give them ours and we can start talking about "blowing them up."

 

I'll bet with the way they're run that if they're not in the playoff hunt, they will have much less issue with trading off some "name" players for prospects than the Brewers have been in the recent past. If the Brewers refuse to rebuild, we'll see which works better: running your team like the Rays of the last decade (Pirates), or running your team like the Cubs of the 1970's (Brewers).

[Oldcity]

Exactly. The Brewers' farm system is far behind every other team in the NL Central, especially Pittsburgh and St. Louis. They need to turn this season into a top 15 farm system at least, ideally even better.

[FVBrewerFan]

I was watching last night game and know it a wed night but there seemed to be plenty of seats available.

 

 

June-August will always be very busy, whether they're in 1st place or last. April and May are generally slower, regardless of record. Especially during the week.

 

September is the big month, could swing by 300,000+. If they're in the race, very busy- if not very slow.

[LouisEly]

In a way, we really owe the Cubs (and Astros) a big thank you because I think it taught Mark A that going the Herb Kohl route will never work long term.

Can we hold off on calling the Cubs and Astros models for a franchise until they have actually won something?

 

Until they actually make the World Series, they have done nothing the Brewers haven't done, just with lower attendance.

[reillymcshane]

So the Pirates are a whopping 3 games better than us right now...does that mean THEY should blow it all up too?

No.

 

Pirates have averaged 91 wins the past two years. Brewers have averaged 78.

 

Pirates starting lineup is in their prime, ranging from ages 23-29. Brewers have three starters past 30.

 

The Pirates have 5 players in the top 100 prospects (according to BA), with three in the top 50. Brewers have two - both in the 90s.

 

These teams are so different - even if they are both struggling right now. Pirates are built to win now and in the near future. The Brewers are older, have not been as successful, and have much less top tier talent in the minors to help in the near future.

[502 to Right]

In a way, we really owe the Cubs (and Astros) a big thank you because I think it taught Mark A that going the Herb Kohl route will never work long term.

Can we hold off on calling the Cubs and Astros models for a franchise until they have actually won something?

 

Until they actually make the World Series, they have done nothing the Brewers haven't done, just with lower attendance.

 

 

Is there a sane person in the world who wouldn't trade the Brewers organization for the Cubs organization right now?

[monty57]

In a way, we really owe the Cubs (and Astros) a big thank you because I think it taught Mark A that going the Herb Kohl route will never work long term.

Can we hold off on calling the Cubs and Astros models for a franchise until they have actually won something?

 

Until they actually make the World Series, they have done nothing the Brewers haven't done, just with lower attendance.

 

 

Is there a sane person in the world who wouldn't trade the Brewers organization for the Cubs organization right now?

 

Mark Attanasio?

[torts]

So the Pirates are a whopping 3 games better than us right now...does that mean THEY should blow it all up too? Way too much hoping going on here for a massive rebuild...it isn't happening.

 

lets also not forget that of their 12 wins, 5 are against milwaukee. So they've only won 7 games against everyone else so far.

[brewmann04]

I was watching last night game and know it a wed night but there seemed to be plenty of seats available.

 

 

June-August will always be very busy, whether they're in 1st place or last. April and May are generally slower, regardless of record. Especially during the week.

 

September is the big month, could swing by 300,000+. If they're in the race, very busy- if not very slow.

 

 

thanks