Open for business (part 1)

[NYChez]

The Greinke trade by KC led them to the World Series in a few years. The CC trade by Cleveland led them to additional years of heartbreak. That's the nature of these types of deals.

[monty57]

What if we trade Lucroy for someone like Correa, and then he either busts as a prospect or gets in a freak Kendrys Morales-like injury and ruins his career?

 

What if we hold on to Lucroy and his wife keeps dropping suitcases on him? Anything can happen, so here's the way I see it:

 

Trading someone like Lucroy or Gomez should bring you back multiple high-end prospects. Let's say you trade both of them and get 6-8 prospects back. You also trade lesser pieces (Lohse, K-Rod, Lind, etc) and get additional prospects back. Some of these guys will fail. You hope to get a few guys who will put up some All Star seasons and others who have MLB careers. That's a good portion of your roster in a couple of seasons filled with talented, inexpensive guys, even if a lot of the guys we get back never make it. We get these guys for six years at the same time our own guys (Arcia, Coulter, Taylor, etc) will be ready to hit the majors. Again, some of our own guys will fail as well, but by "selling off" some guys now, we set ourselves up to have a good number of young, inexpensive talent with "team control" hitting the major leagues over the next handful of years, even with a high flame-out rate.

 

Right now, it's about getting as much talent in the minor leagues as possible. Sell the fans on the quality of prospects we're getting back and have the announcers showcase how well it's working elsewhere to keep fan interest as high as it can be. Bite the bullet for a while as we gradually work the first of these guys into the MLB roster. Supplement them with a few mid-tier free agent signings we try to flip on an annual basis. See how guys like Davis, Gennett, Jungmann, Nelson, etc progress to see if there's anything worth extending or if we use them as semi-talented filler for a while until we flip them when their replacements force their way on to the MLB roster. Once a "core" starts to build and the MLB team starts to see some success, there will be loads of money to sign some free agents to complement the core of young players, and we'll hope at that point to have a foundation of talent that can be successful for an extended period of time.

 

At that point, we should still have a strong farm, as we will likely have received some top draft picks, who will not be MLB ready when the "first wave" of guys (the current farm plus what we get in trade) are forming the aforementioned core. As long as this "future wave" of prospects is not used as trade bait to win in a "window" with the "first wave," we should be able to continue to add young, inexpensive talent with "team control" to the MLB team on a regular basis, allowing us to trade off a few expendable pieces to further stock the farm.

 

It's not easy, it will start with some tough times, followed by ups-and-downs, but I think it's the best strategy they could employ at this time. As a bonus, I think a lot of the fans are now ready for it, making it easier for Attanasio to sign off on the deal

[JohnBriggs12]

The Greinke trade by KC led them to the World Series in a few years. The CC trade by Cleveland led them to additional years of heartbreak. That's the nature of these types of deals.

 

What led KC to the World Series besides stinking for years and drafting high was the greatest performance by a trio out of the bullpen in major league history though there is certainly merit to the argument that the Grienke trade positioned them to the point where they became legit contenders.

 

I believe the Brewers have enough trade-able pieces both this year and next to bolster their chances in 2018 and beyond without sacrificing all hope in 2016-2017 which is why Lucroy is likely going nowhere.

[MrTPlush]

The Greinke trade by KC led them to the World Series in a few years. The CC trade by Cleveland led them to additional years of heartbreak. That's the nature of these types of deals.

 

What led KC to the World Series besides stinking for years and drafting high was the greatest performance by a trio out of the bullpen in major league history though there is certainly merit to the argument that the Grienke trade positioned them to the point where they became legit contenders.

 

I believe the Brewers have enough trade-able pieces both this year and next to bolster their chances in 2018 and beyond without sacrificing all hope in 2016-2017 which is why Lucroy is likely going nowhere.

 

This is exactly the kind of thinking that has put us in the endless loop of average teams.

[reillymcshane]

I just read this interview with Mark A, and he said he is open to rebuild - if that's what it takes.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/mark-attanasio-says-rebuilding-brewers-is-not-out-of-the-picture-b99495169z1-302703111.html

 

At least he's acknowledging that all options are on the table.

 

Also, Attanasio isn't really saying much about Melvin's future. The article alludes to a report that Dougie is in line to be transitioned to president of baseball operations - while a new GM is hired. One thing nice about a new GM is that person isn't beholden to the existing players and plan - a great time to do a rebuild - much like what Ludlow did in Houston.

[Baldkin]

Melvin was on the big 920 yesterday (1070 for those Hawings of you in Madison) and basically refused to use the word rebuild.

 

Stating, among other things (and I'm paraphrasing here) "As a franchise we cannot afford to rebuild, our revenue stream is mostly driven by our fanbase coming to the ballpark, unlike other teams who's revenue is driven by television deals. We can retool, but we can't afford to do what the Cubs did and have a multiple year rebuilding process"

[Boomer5]

No one on the Brewers should be untouchable. Luc and Nelson I suppose are the closest but even they can be had at the right price. Luc wont be a regular catcher in a year so his low price wont matter then.

 

In a way, we really owe the Cubs (and Astros) a big thank you because I think it taught Mark A that going the Herb Kohl route will never work long term.

[brewmann04]

this team will still not reach 500 and they do need to make moves.

[reillymcshane]

In a way, we really owe the Cubs (and Astros) a big thank you because I think it taught Mark A that going the Herb Kohl route will never work long term.

This is true if we actually do a rebuild like the Cubs or Astros.

 

As Baldkin noted above, Melvin uses 'retool' - implying we can't afford to 'rebuild'. That scares me. It likely means trying to straddle the line between rebuilding and contending. Some people think we can do this at this stage, but I think it's just a recipe for continued mediocrity.

[wildcat2237]

Melvin was on the big 920 yesterday (1070 for those Hawings of you in Madison) and basically refused to use the word rebuild.

 

Stating, among other things (and I'm paraphrasing here) "As a franchise we cannot afford to rebuild, our revenue stream is mostly driven by our fanbase coming to the ballpark, unlike other teams who's revenue is driven by television deals. We can retool, but we can't afford to do what the Cubs did and have a multiple year rebuilding process"

 

If this quote is correct this is bad news. A half ass rebuild is not going to get the job done. The Brewers cannot afford to let Lucroy and Gomez walk like they did Fielder and Hart.

 

This franchise is going to HAVE to take a 2 or 3 year step back, unless attanasio has 100 milion or so laying around to sign all of the elite pitchers on the market this winter.

[thebruce44]

Melvin was on the big 920 yesterday (1070 for those Hawings of you in Madison) and basically refused to use the word rebuild.

 

Stating, among other things (and I'm paraphrasing here) "As a franchise we cannot afford to rebuild, our revenue stream is mostly driven by our fanbase coming to the ballpark, unlike other teams who's revenue is driven by television deals. We can retool, but we can't afford to do what the Cubs did and have a multiple year rebuilding process"

 

So we can either lose 90 games with a $100 mil payroll or lose 90 games with a $60 mil payroll while spending additional funding on draft and development.

 

Looks like we are going with 90 losses at $100 mil.

[monty57]

Melvin was on the big 920 yesterday (1070 for those Hawings of you in Madison) and basically refused to use the word rebuild.

 

Stating, among other things (and I'm paraphrasing here) "As a franchise we cannot afford to rebuild, our revenue stream is mostly driven by our fanbase coming to the ballpark, unlike other teams who's revenue is driven by television deals. We can retool, but we can't afford to do what the Cubs did and have a multiple year rebuilding process"

 

It's called marketing... what message you send to your fans.

 

The Cubs went for it in a "window" of 2007-2009 and make the LDS the first two years, drawing 3.252MM and 3.3MM fans. They didn't make the playoffs in 2009, but still drew 3.168MM fans with a 2nd place finish. The normal outcome of a "window" strategy hit in 2010, when they finished with 75 wins in 2010 and 71 wins in 2011 and drew 3MM fans (around 10% less than their peak).

 

They realized what needed to be done and went into rebuild mode, but did so by hiring Epstein in Oct 2011 and telling the fans how and why they were rebuilding. Attendance dropped, but only to 2.88MM, 2.64MM and 2.65MM (still around 80% of their peak year) in the three rebuilding years. I would guess the number will be significantly higher this year, and will probably be higher than it would have been had they decided not to rebuild, but instead kept on the path they were on in 2010 and 2011.

 

The Brewers have hit 3MM three times. The playoff years of 2008 and 2011, and the "playoff hangover" year of 2009. Since 2011 (3.071MM), we drew 2.831MM ("playoff hangover" year), 2.531MM in 2010, and 2.797MM with the playoff hopes of last year. I'd imagine this year will be around 2.5MM, when their record team payroll means probably budgeted for closer to 3MM. Note: this is why they're so flustered, fired the manager, and are already shopping expensive vets.

 

The Brewer brass takes this data and thinks "we need to at least win 70-something games to keep getting at least 2.5MM, with the occasional 2.8MM." I look at this and figure that Brewer fans are going to flee if we keep with the same strategy, but remain in the low-to-mid 70 win area, and while they may stay in the low-to-mid 2MM's for a while, 4-5 years from now they will have lost a significant portion of their ticket sales. I think that if they market the rebuild correctly (as the Cubs did), they will probably see something of a dropoff in sales in the immediate future (probably to the low 2MM's - maybe 2.2??), but will regain these ticket sales in a few years when the young players once again energize the fanbase.

 

Once again, the Brewer brass takes immediate gratification (ticket sales now) over long-term planning. If Melvin could figure out how not to spend every penny to maximize payroll every year, they could easily make it through a couple of years of lesser ticket sales, and therefore when the ticket sales come back up they will have a lower payroll with the ability to add payroll to complement the young, cheap players with veteran free agents.

[patrickgpe]

it seems that Mark A, wants to run the brewers like Herb Kohl ran the bucks. I don't want a decade of mediocrity to appease the fair weather fans. Seems like Mark is content on keeping the team good enough to put butts in the seats and an occasional fringe playoff contender. I wish he would look at whats going on in Houston, as a reference on how he should be rebuilding now.

[stoutdude04]

it seems that Mark A, wants to run the brewers like Herb Kohl ran the bucks. I don't want a decade of mediocrity to appease the fair weather fans. Seems like Mark is content on keeping the team good enough to put butts in the seats and an occasional fringe playoff contender. I wish he would look at whats going on in Houston, as a reference on how he should be rebuilding now.

 

Someone just posted that Mark said he is open to a rebuild if that is what it takes. It is Melvin that appears to not want to take that route.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

While Melvin's statement concerns me, any chance he's positioning here? Theory being that publicly positions that we're not simply doing a fire sale and we need to keep certain players and then he can more easily play hard and thereby driving the price up?

 

Mind you, I don't think it changes much and GMs aren't stupid, but perhaps he believes he has to at least maintain the illusion that he needs to keep some talent here...

[Oldcity]

People comparing the Brewers situation to the Cubs or Astros of a few years ago are off base. Neither of those teams had one trade chip on the level of Gomez or Lucroy, let alone two. They each had awful contracts to get out from under as well.

 

Trading Gomez and Lucroy would get 4-5 great prospects. You don't need much more than that to have a new wave of talent come through. It would be this year and next, and by 2017 many of them would already be in the big leagues. It's not a long-term thing they'd be looking at.

[MrTPlush]

People comparing the Brewers situation to the Cubs or Astros of a few years ago are off base. Neither of those teams had one trade chip on the level of Gomez or Lucroy, let alone two. They each had awful contracts to get out from under as well.

 

Trading Gomez and Lucroy would get 4-5 great prospects. You don't need much more than that to have a new wave of talent come through. It would be this year and next, and by 2017 many of them would already be in the big leagues. It's not a long-term thing they'd be looking at.

 

And they are all going to hop up in 2017 and be super stars like Braun right? It takes time even when they do hit the bigs. Realistically this team has 4-5 years if they trade those guys away.

[Baldkin]

A link for those who want to listen to the DM interview:

 

http://www.thebig920.com/onair/the-mike-heller-show-26319/listen-brewers-gm-doug-melvin-13564451

[reillymcshane]

If the Brewers dealt Gomez, Luc and maybe even Segura, 2017 is when things could get interesting for Milwaukee. You have, potentially, Arcia, Taylor and Coulter (pushing him a little, but he's looking more and more like he can take it) ready. The pitching staff gets to pick from Wagner, Cravy, Jungmann, Thornburg, Brooks Hall, Strong, Knebel, Goforth, Hellweg, Ariel Pena - to name a few.

 

Add in 4-6 decent prospects you get in trading Gomez, Segura and Lucroy, and it becomes an very young, but interesting team. Not sure if they are good, but they are interesting - and marketable, much like the days of Fielder, Braun, Hardy, Weeks and Hart. The club would have something exciting to promote.

 

And if you shed your big salaries, you can start adding in some strategic free agent signings if needed. And you can potentially add more international players with the extra money.

 

The keys are:

 

- A decent number of prospects with high upsides

- Lots of other prospects to potentially find the diamond in the rough, and fill fringe roles (relievers, backups, depth at AAA, etc.)

- Financial flexibility to allow the team to make moves as needed

 

Again, there's no promise this team is that good. But the idea is to build a strong base that can consistently refilled with top-notch talent.

[Raw Biz]

People comparing the Brewers situation to the Cubs or Astros of a few years ago are off base. Neither of those teams had one trade chip on the level of Gomez or Lucroy, let alone two. They each had awful contracts to get out from under as well.

 

Trading Gomez and Lucroy would get 4-5 great prospects. You don't need much more than that to have a new wave of talent come through. It would be this year and next, and by 2017 many of them would already be in the big leagues. It's not a long-term thing they'd be looking at.

 

And they are all going to hop up in 2017 and be super stars like Braun right? It takes time even when they do hit the bigs. Realistically this team has 4-5 years if they trade those guys away.

 

I'm with Oldcity on this one. The Brewers could very well be contenders in 2017, maybe 2018 tops, even with trading Lucroy/Gomez, depending of course on the players they got back. If we were to get one stud pitcher (think along lines of Giolito/Syndergaard for example) for one of them and another stud position player (e.g., Seager/Gallo/Correa), plus maybe a few lesser prospects who can contribute, we would be in pretty solid shape.

 

Obviously nothing is a given, but if Arcia continues to progress and is up in 2017, Coulter mashes and comes up in 2017/2018, Segura finds his old self and is maybe moved to 2nd (or is traded for another good package), then we will have lots of talent.

[3and2Fastball]

Melvin was on the big 920 yesterday (1070 for those Hawings of you in Madison) and basically refused to use the word rebuild.

 

Stating, among other things (and I'm paraphrasing here) "As a franchise we cannot afford to rebuild, our revenue stream is mostly driven by our fanbase coming to the ballpark, unlike other teams who's revenue is driven by television deals. We can retool, but we can't afford to do what the Cubs did and have a multiple year rebuilding process"

 

And that is 100% the most important thing that anyone on this forum should ever read if they want to understand the Brewers way of doing things. Melvin is speaking for Mark A there, and he is saying that revenue streams are more important than doing what is necessary to contend for a World Series.

 

That mentality is exactly why the Brewers can be a perpetual .500 team with occasional bursts of playoff chances

[Oldcity]

And they are all going to hop up in 2017 and be super stars like Braun right? It takes time even when they do hit the bigs. Realistically this team has 4-5 years if they trade those guys away.

I didn't say that. I'm envisioning that 2017 would look similar to the Cubs this year, where they aren't ready to be true contenders yet, but we'll see a lot of improvement with an outside chance to contend.

 

People will come to watching an exciting young team, even if they finish around .500. What we're tired of is a veteran team that finishes around .500 with no sign of a better future.

[patrickgpe]

People comparing the Brewers situation to the Cubs or Astros of a few years ago are off base. Neither of those teams had one trade chip on the level of Gomez or Lucroy, let alone two. They each had awful contracts to get out from under as well.

 

Trading Gomez and Lucroy would get 4-5 great prospects. You don't need much more than that to have a new wave of talent come through. It would be this year and next, and by 2017 many of them would already be in the big leagues. It's not a long-term thing they'd be looking at.

i agree; my point was that the brewers are going to have to get way worse to get better; i understand that if done smart its not a 5 year thing like in Houston.

[Raw Biz]

If the Brewers dealt Gomez, Luc and maybe even Segura, 2017 is when things could get interesting for Milwaukee. You have, potentially, Arcia, Taylor and Coulter (pushing him a little, but he's looking more and more like he can take it) ready. The pitching staff gets to pick from Wagner, Cravy, Jungmann, Thornburg, Brooks Hall, Strong, Knebel, Goforth, Hellweg, Ariel Pena - to name a few.

 

Add in 4-6 decent prospects you get in trading Gomez, Segura and Lucroy, and it becomes an very young, but interesting team. Not sure if they are good, but they are interesting - and marketable, much like the days of Fielder, Braun, Hardy, Weeks and Hart. The club would have something exciting to promote.

 

And if you shed your big salaries, you can start adding in some strategic free agent signings if needed. And you can potentially add more international players with the extra money.

 

The keys are:

 

- A decent number of prospects with high upsides

- Lots of other prospects to potentially find the diamond in the rough, and fill fringe roles (relievers, backups, depth at AAA, etc.)

- Financial flexibility to allow the team to make moves as needed

 

Again, there's no promise this team is that good. But the idea is to build a strong base that can consistently refilled with top-notch talent.

 

Exactly what I was trying to say, you just said it better and 2 minutes earlier. We have not only talent in the minors now, but impact talent. Sure you never know what's going to happen but if I recall, the Cubs at the time (2011) didn't have much, other than Brett Jackson. A year later they had Rizzo and Baez to go with Jackson (Rizzo coming via trade), and by 2013 had added Almora, Soler, Bryant, and Olt. Out of that group, only Jackson (and maybe Olt) are looking like a bust.

 

I think we are starting with a better base than the Cubs did in 2011. Now we just have to draft smart, add a few pieces via trade, and we could be right back in it. With Arcia, Taylor, Coulter, Lara, Gatewood, Harrison, there is something to be excited about. I realize those are all position players, and we can't go out and sign a Lester like the Cubs, but Doug has shown in the past you can trade hitting for pitching. Easier said than done but if we're targeting the BPA (best potential available in this case) in both drafts and trade, we could be dangerous in a few years.

[MrTPlush]

People comparing the Brewers situation to the Cubs or Astros of a few years ago are off base. Neither of those teams had one trade chip on the level of Gomez or Lucroy, let alone two. They each had awful contracts to get out from under as well.

 

Trading Gomez and Lucroy would get 4-5 great prospects. You don't need much more than that to have a new wave of talent come through. It would be this year and next, and by 2017 many of them would already be in the big leagues. It's not a long-term thing they'd be looking at.

 

And they are all going to hop up in 2017 and be super stars like Braun right? It takes time even when they do hit the bigs. Realistically this team has 4-5 years if they trade those guys away.

 

I'm with Oldcity on this one. The Brewers could very well be contenders in 2017, maybe 2018 tops, even with trading Lucroy/Gomez, depending of course on the players they got back. If we were to get one stud pitcher (think along lines of Giolito/Syndergaard for example) for one of them and another stud position player (e.g., Seager/Gallo/Correa), plus maybe a few lesser prospects who can contribute, we would be in pretty solid shape.

 

Obviously nothing is a given, but if Arcia continues to progress and is up in 2017, Coulter mashes and comes up in 2017/2018, Segura finds his old self and is maybe moved to 2nd (or is traded for another good package), then we will have lots of talent.

 

Don't get me wrong I don't think it will take the 5-6 years it took the Cubs/Astros, but 2 years is a pipe dream and 2018 is being pretty generous too. I see where you are coming from and I see how they could make it happen...but everyone would need to hit the ground running for that to happen.

 

Rotation:

1. Sign Ace off FA market after 2016/2017

2. Synergaard(or other elite pitching prospect)

3. Nelson

4. Peralta

5. Insert whoever from the minors you like

 

C-?...likely some veteran

1B- Elite prospect(Gallo type guy)

2B- Jean Segura

SS- Orlando Arcia

3B- ?

LF- Ryan Braun

CF- Tyrone Taylor

RF- Clint Coulter

 

Yeah I can see where they could compete especially if we were to sign an Ace and then get an elite prospect to be dominant making a one-two punch. A lot of concerns though regarding the offense. Those guys would really need to work out right away.

 

EDIT: Please note I didn't consider secondary pieces in a Lucroy or Gomez trade. Either could easily bring back another prized piece to add to the pool.