Open for business (part 1)

[monty57]

I think everyone can agree that Lohse, Parra, Ramirez and Broxton (guys who will be gone next year) should be traded for what ever we can get. It also appears that the Brewers are very interested in trading Garza.

 

Therefore, the difference between the "blow it up" crowd and the "go for it one more time" crowd rests on three players:

 

Carlos Gomez. One of the best CF in the game, who has put up MVP caliber numbers over the recent past. Should we trade him? Pro: We only have him for one more season, and we are very unlikely to be able to extend him any further, as he'll be a $20MM+ guy. He could bring back several very good prospects in trade. Con: Without him our chances for the playoffs next year go from slim to none

 

Jean Segura. Plays solid defense with potential to be a good offensive player. Only in his final pre-arby year, so still has 3+ years of "team control," but has turned down extension offers in the past. Should we trade him? Pro: This is our deepest position, with Sardinas MLB ready, and Arcia nearly MLB ready. The dropoff from Segura to Sardinas probably wouldn't be that great. Teams appear to have a fairly high value on Segura. Con: We could miss out on the upside if he finally puts it together. Sardinas may not pan out, and SS is a hard spot to fill.

 

Jon Lucroy: One of the best catchers in the game, and probably the current "face of the franchise." Seems to help the pitching staff a lot with his framing ability, as well as being a very good hitter. Should we trade him? Pro: He could bring back as much as Gomez in trade, so trading both of them could make for a shorter, more successful rebuild. Con: He would be the most difficult to replace, and trading him would mean we were in full-scale rebuild.

 

So really, that's it. Not to sound overly dramatic, but the fate of the franchise really depends on what we're going to do with these three guys. Trade all of them, we're not good next year (maybe for a few years), but we'll have a much stronger farm. Trade none of them, and we're better next year, but lose Gomez for nothing after the season. Or, do the most likely route, which is trade one or two and "play the middle ground," strengthening the farm some while at least giving the impression that we management is trying to field a competitive MLB team.

[Outlander]

Probably need to add Braun to that list as well since he is playing so well.

[Boomer5]

Todd Rosiak of MJS said the Brewers might like to unload Ryan Braun, BUT probably not willing to provide money in any deal.

 

I personally am really skeptical that they really want to trade him, but maybe hurting his marketability and image make him less enticing for the Brewers.

 

Braun's image and face of the franchise is gone and his next oblique strain is right around the corner.

 

But...the man has been destroying the baseball. His trade value is really high right now. With so many holes to fill and having a 1.100 OPS guy in May with so many teams looking for offense, a Braun trade can clear up 9 digits of obligations and set the farm system up for a decade.

 

The Mets seem like the most logical destination, with the Dodgers also a possibility though the Brewers would need to take back a OF under a bad contract. Im sure most every team could be in the mix, depending on his no trade list. Its not unreasonable to think they can get 4 of any teams top 10 prospects, of which one would be top 10, and 2 more in the top 50 or so.

[3and2Fastball]

Carlos Gomez. One of the best CF in the game, who has put up MVP caliber numbers over the recent past. Should we trade him? Pro: We only have him for one more season, and we are very unlikely to be able to extend him any further, as he'll be a $20MM+ guy. He could bring back several very good prospects in trade. Con: Without him our chances for the playoffs next year go from slim to none.

 

 

Playoffs? Next year?

 

I think the likelihood of the Brewers being playoff contenders next season is extremely slim. We don't have enough pitching.

[Boomer5]

I think everyone can agree that Lohse, Parra, Ramirez and Broxton (guys who will be gone next year) should be traded for what ever we can get. It also appears that the Brewers are very interested in trading Garza.

 

Therefore, the difference between the "blow it up" crowd and the "go for it one more time" crowd rests on three players:

 

Carlos Gomez. One of the best CF in the game, who has put up MVP caliber numbers over the recent past. Should we trade him? Pro: We only have him for one more season, and we are very unlikely to be able to extend him any further, as he'll be a $20MM+ guy. He could bring back several very good prospects in trade. Con: Without him our chances for the playoffs next year go from slim to none

 

Jean Segura. Plays solid defense with potential to be a good offensive player. Only in his final pre-arby year, so still has 3+ years of "team control," but has turned down extension offers in the past. Should we trade him? Pro: This is our deepest position, with Sardinas MLB ready, and Arcia nearly MLB ready. The dropoff from Segura to Sardinas probably wouldn't be that great. Teams appear to have a fairly high value on Segura. Con: We could miss out on the upside if he finally puts it together. Sardinas may not pan out, and SS is a hard spot to fill.

 

Jon Lucroy: One of the best catchers in the game, and probably the current "face of the franchise." Seems to help the pitching staff a lot with his framing ability, as well as being a very good hitter. Should we trade him? Pro: He could bring back as much as Gomez in trade, so trading both of them could make for a shorter, more successful rebuild. Con: He would be the most difficult to replace, and trading him would mean we were in full-scale rebuild.

 

So really, that's it. Not to sound overly dramatic, but the fate of the franchise really depends on what we're going to do with these three guys. Trade all of them, we're not good next year (maybe for a few years), but we'll have a much stronger farm. Trade none of them, and we're better next year, but lose Gomez for nothing after the season. Or, do the most likely route, which is trade one or two and "play the middle ground," strengthening the farm some while at least giving the impression that we management is trying to field a competitive MLB team.

 

Gomez absolutely should be traded. He will bring in a massive haul and wont be with the Brewers in 2017. His style of play makes him a bad bet by then anyhow. His value is super high now.

 

Segura doesn't have enough trade value to be interesting. Id rather keep him and focus on hiring a real hitting instructor to turn his former talent into results.

 

I am torn on Lucroy. One one hand, he can probably net us ANY prospect in the game, and he is already transitioning away from full time catcher. On the other, he is about all we have left.

 

Braun is the guy that can bring us a game changing prospect haul and put us in a great payroll situation with a trade. His performance has been darn near impossible the last 28 days, and we need to capitalize on that.

 

Trading Gomez and Braun would move us from one of the worst farm systems in the game to one of the best with two moves. We could do what the Cubs and Astros did in 4 years with two trades in a weekend.

[3and2Fastball]

Trading Gomez and Braun would move us from one of the worst farm systems in the game to one of the best with two moves. We could do what the Cubs and Astros did in 4 years with two trades in a weekend.

 

Exactly!

 

Throw in trades of Lind. Ramirez, Lohse, K-Rod, Parra, Garza and you've got yourself more prospects, too

[Boomer5]

Trading Gomez and Braun would move us from one of the worst farm systems in the game to one of the best with two moves. We could do what the Cubs and Astros did in 4 years with two trades in a weekend.

 

Exactly!

 

Throw in trades of Lind. Ramirez, Lohse, K-Rod, Parra, Garza and you've got yourself more prospects, too

 

It sounds extreme to trade all of those players. But, the Brewers are 16-30 with those guys. After an OK start, CC is now 9-12, so it wasnt really the manager. How much worse can they be without them?

 

The Brewers could wind up with 6-8 new top 100 players after the trades of Braun and Gomez et al, draft a guy like Aiken, and would have the top pick in the draft next season. And would have a clean slate on payroll.

 

The Brewers dont really do things on that big a scale, so its unlikely. Dare to dream though.

[brewmann04]

I agree Gomez is not going to get this team into the playoffs.so why not trade him for prospects.

[pacopete4]

I wish Tyrone Taylor was smoking the ball at AA and not struggling. Maybe it would push management to move Gomez. When you don't have many options in house, it's hard to move people.

[monty57]

I wish Tyrone Taylor was smoking the ball at AA and not struggling. Maybe it would push management to move Gomez. When you don't have many options in house, it's hard to move people.

 

But honestly, right now does it matter if we put a "hot player" on the field? We're not winning, and not going to be a playoff team, so as we trade away some players (whether we go all in or not), we should really just let some young players get their feet wet and showcase their talent at the MLB level. If they don't feel that Taylor is ready, finish the year with Schafer at CF. Maybe we can finally get an idea on whether he's a valid backup OF candidate or a guy we should jettison.

 

We need to stop worrying about whether a move we make this year will hurt us for the rest of the year. The rest of the year doesn't matter... that's why we're trading guys away.

[Boomer5]

I wish Tyrone Taylor was smoking the ball at AA and not struggling. Maybe it would push management to move Gomez. When you don't have many options in house, it's hard to move people.

 

But honestly, right now does it matter if we put a "hot player" on the field? We're not winning, and not going to be a playoff team, so as we trade away some players (whether we go all in or not), we should really just let some young players get their feet wet and showcase their talent at the MLB level. If they don't feel that Taylor is ready, finish the year with Schafer at CF. Maybe we can finally get an idea on whether he's a valid backup OF candidate or a guy we should jettison.

 

We need to stop worrying about whether a move we make this year will hurt us for the rest of the year. The rest of the year doesn't matter... that's why we're trading guys away.

 

I know tanking doesn't help as much in baseball, but having the first pick isn't a bad thing. I really like Gomez, but we need to be real about how healthy he will be in the next 1 1/2 years and his chances of being a Brewer in 2017.

[3and2Fastball]

My faith in Mark A is at an All-Time Low, so take it with a grain of salt when I post this: I sincerely think there is a 50/50 chance that the Brewers will extend Gomez longterm. Overpaying Gomez for his age 31-35 seasons is much more in lockstep with the Brewers standard method of operations than trading him this season.

[pacopete4]

I wish Tyrone Taylor was smoking the ball at AA and not struggling. Maybe it would push management to move Gomez. When you don't have many options in house, it's hard to move people.

 

But honestly, right now does it matter if we put a "hot player" on the field? We're not winning, and not going to be a playoff team, so as we trade away some players (whether we go all in or not), we should really just let some young players get their feet wet and showcase their talent at the MLB level. If they don't feel that Taylor is ready, finish the year with Schafer at CF. Maybe we can finally get an idea on whether he's a valid backup OF candidate or a guy we should jettison.

 

We need to stop worrying about whether a move we make this year will hurt us for the rest of the year. The rest of the year doesn't matter... that's why we're trading guys away.

 

 

To me? Nope. To MA and DM, I think it does. They really want ticket sales (and I realize you can say us not winning won't get ticket sales) and with Gomez, people go out to watch him play. I know I do. He's electric. So if by trading him you replace him with lets say Schafer, you lose that many more fans. Could it help our future? Not disagreeing with that at any point. Just saying that MA especially wants fans going through those gates.

[3and2Fastball]

Just saying that MA especially wants fans going through those gates.

 

So the only way Brewers fans can effectively get through to Mark A that he needs to completely restructure the front office and the way the Brewers run their franchise is to stop buying tickets. I'm in.

[pacopete4]

Just saying that MA especially wants fans going through those gates.

 

So the only way Brewers fans can effectively get through to Mark A that he needs to completely restructure the front office and the way the Brewers run their franchise is to stop buying tickets. I'm in.

 

 

Honestly, it's not too far off. If fans completely deserted Miller Park in a "boycott" of sorts type event, he would probably get it that fans are ticked off with the direction the franchise has taken. Is it that bad? Maybe for some people but I doubt all fans feel that they are that far off.

[Boomer5]

That is the Herb Kohl style of sports management.

 

I think the painful moves and long 4 years by the Cubs and Astros, and incredible turnover of the Braves has to make Mark A think tough.

[brewmann04]

How many fans are they going to get with this losing team come August? Sept not a worry believe they have two Big Road trips in the final month.

[Thurston Fluff]

That is the Herb Kohl style of sports management.

 

I think the painful moves and long 4 years by the Cubs and Astros, and incredible turnover of the Braves has to make Mark A think tough.

 

I think it's a bit premature to say any of those three are going to have any larger return than the incredible amount of talent our last rebuild effort got us. A few guys get hurt or turn out to be incredibly average and the dynasty is short lived. You know who doesn't tear everything apart start over? The Cardinals. It isn't a coincidence that they remained competitive throughout several Cub and Astro rebuilds.

[3and2Fastball]

That is the Herb Kohl style of sports management.

 

I think the painful moves and long 4 years by the Cubs and Astros, and incredible turnover of the Braves has to make Mark A think tough.

 

I think it's a bit premature to say any of those three are going to have any larger return than the incredible amount of talent our last rebuild effort got us. A few guys get hurt or turn out to be incredibly average and the dynasty is short lived. You know who doesn't tear everything apart start over? The Cardinals. It isn't a coincidence that they remained competitive throughout several Cub and Astro rebuilds.

 

 

The Cardinals are very successful at drafting and developing pitching. They also develop players who can get on base and play fundamentally strong defense. In multiple ways the Cardinals are the "anti-Doug Melvin".

[monty57]

That is the Herb Kohl style of sports management.

 

I think the painful moves and long 4 years by the Cubs and Astros, and incredible turnover of the Braves has to make Mark A think tough.

 

I think it's a bit premature to say any of those three are going to have any larger return than the incredible amount of talent our last rebuild effort got us. A few guys get hurt or turn out to be incredibly average and the dynasty is short lived. You know who doesn't tear everything apart start over? The Cardinals. It isn't a coincidence that they remained competitive throughout several Cub and Astro rebuilds.

 

I would gladly follow their model. I believe it starts with the type of player they want to bring in (baseball skills and attitude). This type of player is diametrically opposed to what Melvin seems to want to bring in, which seems to be big power bats with no plate discipline, big armed pitchers with no control, and guys who were no longer welcome with their previous teams because of their attitudes.

 

If we get rid of our management team and replace them with someone high up from the Cardinals system, that would be a start. Then we'd need to replace most of our coaches and scouts throughout the system to find people to teach "our way" of doing things. Then, we'd still need a rebuild to bring in the type of players we want into the system. There would be very few players left, so it would take a long time, but it could be done. Then, we'd have a system full of disciplined guys who understand basic fundamentals of baseball.

 

That's at least a plan to follow. Much better than the "find a name you know and plug his stats into a spreadsheet" model Attanasio seems to employ.

[splitterpfj]

Johnny Cueto is getting an MRI on his elbow today, which may have significant impact on the trade market - stay tuned.

[bill hAll Star]

The Brewers are sitting at where the Cubs and Astros sat in 2008/2009ish. A 5-7 year stretch with 3 or 4 pretty good years. The Astros got to the World Series in 2005 and the Cubs were close in 2003. The Brewers almost got there in 2011.

 

The Brewers are not in the Cardinals territory. In NFL equivalency, the Cardinals are somewhat in Patriots/Packers territory of organizations that are now in multiple decades of a working system. The Brewers' NFL equivalent is maybe the recent Vikings, Jets, or Bears surges. Maybe not the right way of doing things but some flashy/risky moves that worked but still find themselves looking up at the model organization save for maybe one year.

 

That is longform way of saying "you cannot ask the Brewers to rebuild like the Cardinals." They can eventually become the Cardinals, but they'd still need a tear-down if that is going to happen anytime soon.

 

Here are some similarities with the Astros/Cubs (obviously you have to adjust for market size)

 

-2003 the Cubs fall just short of the World Series and 2007/2008 they have strong teams that don't show up in the playoffs.

-In 2001 (after some good late 90s years as well) Houston makes the playoffs. In 2004/2005 they fall just short of the WS/then lose the WS

 

The Brewers followed this same thing (Cubs were backwards) of a playoff appearance and WS/near WS appearance shortly after.

 

-In 2009/2010 both the Cubs and Astros tried to push it with their veteran teams but they were beginning to leak. The Brewers are hitting this stage.

 

2009/2010 Astros had a back-end of prime Berkman. 2015 Brewers have back-end of prime Braun. 2009/2010 had back-end of prime Soriano.

 

2009/2010 Astros had over-the-hill Carlos Lee. The Cubs had over-the-hill (comparatively) Derrek Lee, the Brewers have over-the-hill Aramis.

 

2009/2010 had prime but soon-to-be FA Aramis Ramirez. Brewers have prime but soon-to-be FA Carlos Gomez. Astros had prime but soon-to-be FA Hunter Pence.

 

There are many more comparisons to be made in that list (some of the ages are stretched here and there) but the point is that the Brewers are entering the point where the franchise falls off the cliff and isn't able to maximize the assets. The Cubs didn't get a ton for Soriano nor the Astros for Berkman. The 'stros got a decent package (at the time) for Oswalt.

 

Point is: Sell now. Maybe the Brewers will only have to suffer through 2 years and not 4 like the Cubs and Astros did.

[GAME05]

I don't see the point of Braun trade talks. If we're not willing to give up salary than we won't get much back. And if we send money, that makes for a pretty expensive prospect we're essentially buying. Either way it seems we'd be best off with his production, even if he is more of a pariah now.

 

Segura just seems like a sell-low candidate. We won't get much for a replacement-level player. Utility infielders are hard to find, especially at his price. Plus we get to keep the hope of him maybe being a late bloomer.

[SoupTown]

Monty's three headed post is very spot on.

 

Let us say you dont trade Gomez, Segura, Lucroy. You are, in my opinion punting 2015 to 2020. You will be a .480 team for six year. Hooray.

 

If you trade Gomez, you are punting 2016 for the future.

If you trade Gomez and Lucroy, you are punting 2016 and 2017 for the future.

If you trade Segura you are wise, BUT Doug and Mark may think they are punting 2016, 2017, 2018, if they trade

 

The evil 'converse' of all this... does not Boras represent both Gomez and Segura... we could sign both Gomez and Segura to 10 year 200 mill contracts - and never rebuild... we can, indeed be a .480 team F O R E V E R

 

My guess is we punt 2016 (trade Gomez and Segura). Mark and Doug eyeball 2017, hence keeping Lucroy to anchor that team.

 

The best hope we have is Counsell being where he is. He seems to not mind evaluating the players and making swift moves (Scooter to AAA). Mabye after a month he will say to Doug and Mark... the players you have given me are not so good.... take them away and get me some new ones.

[Boomer5]

Monty's three headed post is very spot on.

 

Let us say you dont trade Gomez, Segura, Lucroy. You are, in my opinion punting 2015 to 2020. You will be a .480 team for six year. Hooray.

 

If you trade Gomez, you are punting 2016 for the future.

If you trade Gomez and Lucroy, you are punting 2016 and 2017 for the future.

If you trade Segura you are wise, BUT Doug and Mark may think they are punting 2016, 2017, 2018, if they trade

 

The evil 'converse' of all this... does not Boras represent both Gomez and Segura... we could sign both Gomez and Segura to 10 year 200 mill contracts - and never rebuild... we can, indeed be a .480 team F O R E V E R

 

My guess is we punt 2016 (trade Gomez and Segura). Mark and Doug eyeball 2017, hence keeping Lucroy to anchor that team.

 

The best hope we have is Counsell being where he is. He seems to not mind evaluating the players and making swift moves (Scooter to AAA). Mabye after a month he will say to Doug and Mark... the players you have given me are not so good.... take them away and get me some new ones.

 

I still look at the Cubs and Astros model. Yes they stunk for years but look at them now.

 

The Brewers have some interesting assets in Gomez, Braun, and Lucroy but they are 16-31. How much worse would they be without them? They are only getting older and more fragile by the day. Why not turn those three into 6-8 top 100 prospects, and likely 1 top 10 and several top 50's.

 

Draft Aiken and have the first pick in the draft in 2016.

 

To me, thats a lot more exciting than riding three good players into the ground and still having the worst record in baseball.