Open for business (part 1)

[LouisEly]

In order to #sellsellsell, someone has to #buybuybuy. In looking at the races, I don't know that many teams will be ready to buy on June 1st. Things are still pretty tight; there is likely not going to be much buying until the end of June at the earliest.

 

If anything will happen in the next 2-3 weeks the best bets are:

 

1) Lohse to the Dodgers

2) The Angels getting impatient with Cron and sending him back to the minors and trading for Lind; the Angels also might be getting impatient with Joyce and might be a buyer for Parra. In fact, I'm bringing this one over to the trade forum because I think there's a good fit and Taylor Featherston could be a piece to bring back to be the near-term 3B solution.

 

I think the Giants are going to want to watch Ramirez for a few weeks and see how he holds up before pulling the trigger to upgrade on McGehee. Would be surprised if that trade happens before the end of June.

[Outlander]

I just looked it up, and the Brewers also have the second worst run differential in all of MLB at -51. Only the Phillies are worse. Does this sound like a team that can "turn it around?"

If you put it that way then yes, the Phillies just recently had a 6 game winning streak.

[Invader3K]

I just looked it up, and the Brewers also have the second worst run differential in all of MLB at -51. Only the Phillies are worse. Does this sound like a team that can "turn it around?"

If you put it that way then yes, the Phillies just recently had a 6 game winning streak.

 

With the current make up of the team, anything more than maybe a three game winning streak feels impossible right now.

[Thurston Fluff]

I just looked it up, and the Brewers also have the second worst run differential in all of MLB at -51. Only the Phillies are worse. Does this sound like a team that can "turn it around?"

If you put it that way then yes, the Phillies just recently had a 6 game winning streak.

 

With the current make up of the team, anything more than maybe a three game winning streak feels impossible right now.

 

I think the makeup of this team is a reason why we could get on one. A slugging heavy, low OBP team with inconsistent pitching seems destined to streak it's way through the season.

[monty57]

The 56 win 2002 Milwaukee Brewers had a 10-game win streak, so anything can happen. That said, it is extremely unlikely that this year's Brewers will play well enough to do anything but hurt their draft positioning, so Invader's point stands. We're not a playoff team, and probably won't be next year either, so the time has come to sell some assets to re-stock the system.

[Ennder]

Having watched baseball for a very long time and followed the statistical side for a very long time I will say this is a team that could still break 90 wins.

 

I don't think it will. I think the most likely scenario is they play around .500 and it is a dead season or that they trade everything away and it becomes a dead season. But stop trying to pretend that baseball is the type of sport where teams can't play way above their talent level for big chunks of time. This kind of thing is why you see teams win 90+ games one year bring back the same team and only win 70 games the next. The range of outcomes in baseball is just huge.

[trwi7]

They would have to go 75-45 to break 90 wins. That's a 101 win pace for 75% of the season. The last Brewers team to win at that pace for that long was in 2011 and this team is nowhere close to that team.

 

That team had five well above average offensive contributors. If Lucroy comes back and hits like he has the last few years and if Parra keeps up his pace or if Ramirez or Davis replaces what Parra is doing the Brewers would also have 5 though not as good as the group of Fielder, Braun, Hart, Weeks, Morgan.

 

The big thing is the pitching though. This year's Brewers have one starting pitcher with a FIP under 4. The 2011 team had 3 and none with a FIP higher than 4.29. The bullpen in 2011 was also rock solid. This bullpen is the antithesis of rock solid.

[Thurston Fluff]

The big thing is the pitching though. This year's Brewers have one starting pitcher with a FIP under 4. The 2011 team had 3 and none with a FIP higher than 4.29. The bullpen in 2011 was also rock solid. This bullpen is the antithesis of rock solid.

 

Not that I am saying this team is as good as 2011 but comparing a full season to two months of another is not a very good way to state your case. This pitching staff is much better than it's current numbers would suggest.

Over the length of a full season you pretty much always end up what your talent suggests you should. That seems to be around a 500 record. Since that isn't good enough I think it best to trade any player who is on their last year here and take a long hard look at how to rebuild a respectable team in the winter.

[monty57]

But stop trying to pretend that baseball is the type of sport where teams can't play way above their talent level for big chunks of time.

 

Was that aimed at me? I just said the 2002 Brewers won 10 in a row, so anything can happen. I've also continually said that if left alone this year's team should heat up and end up near .500 (although the longer this bad play goes on, the more remote a .500 record will be).

 

But, also having watched baseball for a very long time, it seems obvious that the Brewers for the past few years have been losing talented players and replacing them with less talented players, while still increasing the payroll. We sacrificed the future for the present, and now the future is here. It's time to change tack and start looking to the future. Sure, the team's playoff chances are not statistically zero, but holding out hopes to defy the odds and somehow make the playoffs this year is a fool's errand that would only hurt the franchise.

 

And there's always next year, right? Well, we'll lose our opening day starter and cleanup hitter to free agency, as well as our fourth OF, who has around an .850 OPS in pretty regular playing time this season. According to MLBtraderumors, we are also actively trying to move Garza, so we will effectively lose 2/5 of our rotation and our 3B with no standout prospects in line to replace them. As it stands, our rotation should be well below average next year, and there is no chance we're going to get an ace in free agency to change that. This is a team that going into this season was reasonably projected to be around a .500 team, which is currently losing about 2/3 of the games they're playing, and even though we're set to lose some key pieces with no one in line to replace them, we are somehow supposed to believe that our chances for the playoffs next year will be so good that we should not instead play for the future?

 

So please stop trying to pretend that while teams can defy the odds, that it is a good strategy to expect to defy the odds. If you continually try to defy the odds, you will lose. That's why the casinos make so much money.

[danzig6767]

They would have to go 75-45 to break 90 wins. That's a 101 win pace for 75% of the season. The last Brewers team to win at that pace for that long was in 2011 and this team is nowhere close to that team.

 

That team had five well above average offensive contributors. If Lucroy comes back and hits like he has the last few years and if Parra keeps up his pace or if Ramirez or Davis replaces what Parra is doing the Brewers would also have 5 though not as good as the group of Fielder, Braun, Hart, Weeks, Morgan.

 

The big thing is the pitching though. This year's Brewers have one starting pitcher with a FIP under 4. The 2011 team had 3 and none with a FIP higher than 4.29. The bullpen in 2011 was also rock solid. This bullpen is the antithesis of rock solid.

 

Just look at the team ERA stats in baseball so far.

 

Cardinals 1st

Mets 2nd

Royals 3rd

Dodgers 5th

Rays 6th

Giants 7th

Astros 8th

Angels 9th

Tigers 10th

 

Then go look at the records of those teams and their place in the standings. Only the Pirates are a top 10 pitching staff, ranking 4th and still under .500 so far. Hard to envision any way this Brewers pitching staff can pitch to that level over the rest of the season.

[Pugger]

The big thing is the pitching though. This year's Brewers have one starting pitcher with a FIP under 4. The 2011 team had 3 and none with a FIP higher than 4.29. The bullpen in 2011 was also rock solid. This bullpen is the antithesis of rock solid.

 

Not that I am saying this team is as good as 2011 but comparing a full season to two months of another is not a very good way to state your case. This pitching staff is much better than it's current numbers would suggest.

Over the length of a full season you pretty much always end up what your talent suggests you should. That seems to be around a 500 record. Since that isn't good enough I think it best to trade any player who is on their last year here and take a long hard look at how to rebuild a respectable team in the winter.

 

I don't think the pitching has been horrendous either. But it can be tough on those guys because if they give up more than 3 runs they're screwed seeing we can't score more than a couple runs on a good night.

[monty57]

From CBS Sports:

 

by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com

(3 hrs ago) With catcher Christian Bethancourt having a poor start to the season, the Braves inquired about Brewers starting catcher Jonathan Lucroy, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. However, the Braves were told he was unavailable.

Bethancourt began the season as the Braves starting catcher, but he was quickly replaced by veteran A.J. Pierzynski after he struggled at and behind the plate.

 

and

 

Rival teams suggest veteran pitchers Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse have limited trade value. If anything, Lohse is generally preferred, for the expiring contract and excellent clubhouse presence ... Jean Segura was said to have been unhappy to go on the disabled list, but rivals are still skeptical whether Milwaukee would trade him, Lucroy (the Braves were among teams to try there) or perhaps even Carlos Gomez, though Milwaukee seems slightly more open to Gomez than the other two, due to his contractual status as a free agent after 2016.

 

So they're looking to trade Lohse and Garza, but no one will give them anything for them. There is a slight chance they'll deal Gomez, probably won't deal Segura and won't even listen to an offer when someone calls desperate for Lucroy. Yeah, the future looks really bright.

[FVBrewerFan]

Says one guy from CBS Sports. Easy to say that in May, but give it a couple months. If either/both are pitching well at the time there will be teams who need/want another vet in their rotation due to injuries, etc.

 

Rivals can be skeptical about a Segura trade all they want, but why would that stop them from making a legit trade offer if they want him?

[Thurston Fluff]

There is a slight chance they'll deal Gomez, probably won't deal Segura and won't even listen to an offer when someone calls desperate for Lucroy. Yeah, the future looks really bright.

 

Going from -Atlanta asked about him and was told no- to -won't even listen to offers from desperate teams- is a pretty huge leap. Especially when you consider Atlanta needed a 6 game winning streak to reach .500 and wasn't expected to compete this year anyway. That is hardly the definition of desperate. There is no hurry to trade him. If a team is desperate now there will be more teams looking for him in the winter. That should only make a team like Atlanta more desperate.

[tmwiese55]

So they're looking to trade Lohse and Garza, but no one will give them anything for them. There is a slight chance they'll deal Gomez, probably won't deal Segura and won't even listen to an offer when someone calls desperate for Lucroy. Yeah, the future looks really bright.

 

You're aware of how negotiation works aren't you? Can't just jump on the first opportunity, or if you tell this to Atlanta they know they better not mess around with a weak offer. What should be taken from a report like this is that they're trying to demand a lot for Gomez and Lucroy. Deadline is months away and they're in no rush on any of these guys. Lohse would be the most rushed but he was so bad until the last two games that he needs time to prove himself.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not so much concerned with the Brewers saying "Player X or Y isn't available" in the media, or even early on in this process to other teams. I do worry that history suggests we aren't going to get the kind of player movement many of us are hoping for.

 

I would hope if a GM calls back and says something like in Atlanta's case, "I know you said Lucroy isn't available but what if we give you Max Fried, Lucas Sims, and Ricardo Sanchez ?" that the Brewers would seriously consider the offer. 2 players with #2 upside and a 3rd with #3 upside is huge for an organization that doesn't really have legitimate #2 starter upside anywhere today. The Brewers have a couple of players with that ceiling, and none above A ball, but the results just haven't come along to the point where I'd comfortably throw that label on them.

 

I really struggle with the notion that in baseball people naturally assume that you're either a buyer or a seller, why can't a team be both and remain competitive?

[monty57]

You're aware of how negotiation works aren't you?

 

Very, and the term "unavailable" is a whole lot different than "we really don't want to move him," or "we really like him." "Unavailable" is the end of the negotiation. Now, in the past Melvin has said that he picks a few teams who he think match up well, and only calls them. Maybe he just saw it was Atlanta on the other line and didn't like any of their prospects, and he could be "available" if a different team called.

 

This isn't the first hint that Lucroy wasn't going anywhere, that Lohse and Garza aren't in demand, or that Segura is desired, but the Brewers aren't looking to move him. Segura should be traded, and I think there's a chance it will happen, but I'd be shocked if Lucroy is moved.

 

If either/both are pitching well at the time there will be teams who need/want another vet in their rotation due to injuries, etc.

 

I have no doubt Lohse will be traded, but I doubt they get much other than salary relief and a mediocre prospect in return. Meanwhile, it seems the Brewers want to trade Garza, but his contract looks to be viewed as a negative. Trading him probably signifies that they are worried about future revenues and want to eliminate his salary, so it will be interesting to see if they eat any of his salary to bring back a prospect, if they salary dump him, or if they just hold onto him because neither of the previous options are acceptable.

 

The only way they will bring back meaningful return is to give up some pieces other teams want, and Gomez looks to be the main piece the Brewers are leaning towards moving. Other than hoping to sell a few more tickets, I don't get why you would trade away Garza and Gomez, but hold on to the other guys. It's not like they will be good with no pitching and no Gomez, so if they're going to jump in, jump in all the way.

[paul253]

So they're looking to trade Lohse and Garza, but no one will give them anything for them. There is a slight chance they'll deal Gomez, probably won't deal Segura and won't even listen to an offer when someone calls desperate for Lucroy. Yeah, the future looks really bright.

My thoughts exactly.

 

You're aware of how negotiation works aren't you?

 

I get this idea that some people think GM's are always trying to use code words and secret spy tactics to fool people into giving up more then they want. Sometimes they actually do mean what they say. Like Monty said "unavailable" seems pretty definitive. If I am a GM and I call another GM about a player only to be told he's not available, I'm going to look somewhere else, not increase my offer.

 

My biggest fear about this team is that they aren't taking this awful start seriously enough. Yeah it's cool to trade Lohse or Garza or KRod but you're not going to get anything for them. You're talking a low ceiling prospect or some savings in money. Certainly nothing that's going to help turn the ship around. The Brewers have 3 pieces that could get something decent in return. Lucroy, Gomez and Segura. If they trade one of them I'll be surprised. Two I'll be shocked. I don't see what the problem is. Clearly they aren't going to win with them so why hold onto them and let their value decrease?

[KCBrewerfan34]

Brewers will be making a mistake if they go 5/85 for LuCroy. If he can bring a big time pitcher or pitching prospect you need to do it.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Having watched baseball for a very long time and followed the statistical side for a very long time I will say this is a team that could still break 90 wins.

 

I don't think it will. I think the most likely scenario is they play around .500 and it is a dead season or that they trade everything away and it becomes a dead season. But stop trying to pretend that baseball is the type of sport where teams can't play way above their talent level for big chunks of time. This kind of thing is why you see teams win 90+ games one year bring back the same team and only win 70 games the next. The range of outcomes in baseball is just huge.

 

 

You make it sound like it's ore or less random. The Pirates had losing seasons....... what? 18 years in a row? If it was as random as suggested, one would think they would have lucked into a winning season somewhere in there, wouldn't they?

 

I agree that there is variance, but bad teams lose more than they win. This is not a good team.

[pacopete4]

Brewers will be making a mistake if they go 5/85 for LuCroy. If he can bring a big time pitcher or pitching prospect you need to do it.

 

Agreed. Send Lucroy, Lind, Lohse, and Garza to ATL for Teheran, Freeman, and Foltynewicz.

[nate82]

Brewers will be making a mistake if they go 5/85 for LuCroy. If he can bring a big time pitcher or pitching prospect you need to do it.

 

Agreed. Send Lucroy, Lind, Lohse, and Garza to ATL for Teheran, Freeman, and Foltynewicz.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

Okay, I know the the lets blow it up crowd is having a field day, but hold on just a second. You do all realize that had we seen this Ryan Braun in 2014, that this Brewer core, sans Lind, would have won the NL Central last year? You also realize that the entire core, sans Ramirez and Lohse, a $25 million savings, is under contract or control for 2016?

 

This franchise cannot and should not so easily dismiss an opportunity, albeit a short term one, that exists for 2016. The real Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez and Lucroy at their peak, Lind, Davis, Segura, Nelson, Peralta, Fiers, an emerging group of hard throwers in the pen and a group of young players especially middle infielders knocking on the door. Money to spend in a very deep starting pitching FA pool. Of course these core players have to stay on the field but that's true everywhere anytime.

 

Just saying the decision to blow it up and build for 3-4 years down the road isn't so easy, and coming to that conclusion based on a year end where Braun was a shell and the first 15 games of this year was a disaster, might not be all that wise.

[Ennder]

 

 

You make it sound like it's ore or less random. The Pirates had losing seasons....... what? 18 years in a row? If it was as random as suggested, one would think they would have lucked into a winning season somewhere in there, wouldn't they?

 

I agree that there is variance, but bad teams lose more than they win. This is not a good team.

 

The variance is just wider than you think. If this were a true 81 win team and you got to replay this season 100 times they would occasionally break 90 wins. The 2009 Seattle Mariners is the classic example. In 2008 they won 61 games, they added a couple of minor players and in 2009 they won 85 games. In 2010 they added more talent and won 61, 65, 67 the next 3 years. 2009 they had a 70 or less win team that just played way over its head. You bring up the pirates and 18 years, they played over their heads in 1999 to get to 78 wins when they probably had a 69 or 70 win team.

 

This Brewers team has low 80s win talent on it. Those pirates teams had maybe 1 player that you could even imagine making an all star team. This team has a core lineup that could be all star level. It has pitching that in the past has been at least league average. This is not the pirates or Brewers of the big losing streak at all. This team is perfectly capable of going on a run and breaking .500 on the year. It just has played really bad baseball overall on the year so far.

 

I still think the most likely scenario is we play .500 from here on out and the bad start makes it a dead year. I just can be realistic about how baseball actually works. Bad teams don't always have a losing record and good teams don't always have a winning one, it just doesn't work like that.

[logan82]

They shouldn't build a team to be .500 and hope for a good year.