Open for business (part 1)

[brewmann04]

Will the brewers do a blockbuster type of deal?

[brewmann04]

Will the brewers do a blockbuster type of deal?

[nate82]

Will the brewers do a blockbuster type of deal?

 

No, I don't see Gomez being traded at the earliest being the off season I just don't see many teams being interested in him at this time. There will be more teams who will be looking at him in the off season than there is now. Without Gomez being traded I don't see a blockbuster type of a deal being made.

 

I would put Lohse and Lind being traded at 90% chance, with Parra and Garza at about a 50% chance.

[brwrsfan]

I'd love to think of the Brewers trading two or even three players at once in order to get a top-tier prospect, but it seems more realistic they'd go one at a time.

 

Aiming more for AA or even A+ guys in order to get better talent would really kill attendance. The known players leave with nobody exciting on the ML roster next season, either. Who would buy season tickets to see that?

 

Sometimes you have to endure some pain before you experience some success.

 

Well I'd still have my 20 pack...and selfishly, if people bail, just means better seats for me going forward. The team is going to be bad next year, it's just a matter of exactly HOW bad we're going to be.

 

As far as the trade percentages, I'd say as long as Parra is healthy, he's got to be almost 100% gone. We're not bringing him back next year. He's a solid lefty bat and a gold glove OF. What contending team couldn't use that? Even if it's just as a 4th OF.

[JohnBriggs12]

Lind won't be traded. Teams in contention aren't usually desperate for 1B/DH types and who do the Brewers have behind him at 1B? Answer: Nobody until Braun gets moved there, probably in 2017.

 

If the Brewers don't turn it around in the next 6 weeks, they'll punt on 2015 by why should they throw in the towel for 2016? Braun looks like his old self. Gomez is playing at a very high level and should again next year. Sardinas looks like a major league player now. Segura isn't quite to his 2013 level, but he's been playing well. Lind is under control for 2016 for a relatively cheap option. They'll have money to spend and a few holes to fill but nothing drastic. They will get some return on the castoffs from this season that make sense like Lohse and K-Rod.

[bill hAll Star]

The thing is - I think with a shrewd management team, they could still be "2015 Braves-esque" competitive next year if they want to finally unload some of the big-name players.

 

Try to buy low on some guys like Chris Young (OF), Stephen Drew, Joyce, De Aza, David Murphy, etc. and see if you can't make some nice platoons out of it. If so, you can deal them at the deadline to a contender. Given that probably both (I wish one or zero) of Braun/Lucroy will still be around and in a Gomez (and Braun or Lucroy) deal you may get a pitcher that's close to the majors among other things, you could be semi-competitive and have trade pieces at the deadline.

[monty57]

Lind won't be traded. Teams in contention aren't usually desperate for 1B/DH types and who do the Brewers have behind him at 1B? Answer: Nobody until Braun gets moved there, probably in 2017.

 

If the Brewers don't turn it around in the next 6 weeks, they'll punt on 2015 by why should they throw in the towel for 2016? Braun looks like his old self. Gomez is playing at a very high level and should again next year. Sardinas looks like a major league player now. Segura isn't quite to his 2013 level, but he's been playing well. Lind is under control for 2016 for a relatively cheap option. They'll have money to spend and a few holes to fill but nothing drastic. They will get some return on the castoffs from this season that make sense like Lohse and K-Rod.

 

Their rotation will be something like Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Jungmann, Thornburg. They will not win with that, so they should cash in on the treasure-trove of talent they'll get from a Gomez trade instead of losing him for a comp pick when he leaves for free agency. They have been getting less and less talented every year since 2011. Due to a bit of luck in snagging Gomez in the Hardy trade, and his being a late blooming All Star instead of a bust, they have a chance at making their rebuild less painful. If they try to "go for it" again next year, they will have wasted that chance, and pretty soon they will have little of value to trade. That will be when a rebuild is very long and painful.

[clancyphile]

Lind won't be traded. Teams in contention aren't usually desperate for 1B/DH types and who do the Brewers have behind him at 1B? Answer: Nobody until Braun gets moved there, probably in 2017.

 

If the Brewers don't turn it around in the next 6 weeks, they'll punt on 2015 by why should they throw in the towel for 2016? Braun looks like his old self. Gomez is playing at a very high level and should again next year. Sardinas looks like a major league player now. Segura isn't quite to his 2013 level, but he's been playing well. Lind is under control for 2016 for a relatively cheap option. They'll have money to spend and a few holes to fill but nothing drastic. They will get some return on the castoffs from this season that make sense like Lohse and K-Rod.

 

Their rotation will be something like Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Jungmann, Thornburg. They will not win with that, so they should cash in on the treasure-trove of talent they'll get from a Gomez trade instead of losing him for a comp pick when he leaves for free agency. They have been getting less and less talented every year since 2011. Due to a bit of luck in snagging Gomez in the Hardy trade, and his being a late blooming All Star instead of a bust, they have a chance at making their rebuild less painful. If they try to "go for it" again next year, they will have wasted that chance, and pretty soon they will have little of value to trade. That will be when a rebuild is very long and painful.

 

I'm not so sure that a rebuild is necessary. Perhaps a re-tooling around Gomez, Lucroy, and Braun can do the job. The way I see it, there are some very good prospects in the system in Orlando Arcia, Victor Roache, Michael Reed, and Clint Coulter.

 

The good news, I see all of the eight every day spots filled for Opening Day 2017 in-house, if you will - with two scenarios:

Scenario A

RF: Michael Reed

2B: Jean Segura

3B: Ryan Braun

CF: Carlos Gomez

C: Jon Lucroy

1B: Clint Coulter

LF: Victor Roache

SS: Orlando Arcia

Pitcher

 

Scenario B

CF: Michael Reed

2B: Jean Segura

3B: Ryan Braun

1B: Adam Lind

C: Jon Lucroy

RF: Clint Coulter

LF: Victor Roache

SS: Orlando Arcia

Pitcher

 

Michael Reed looks like he is also very good. Victor Roache and Clint Coulter are posting very good numbers at Brevard County.

 

The big questions are:

What pieces are needed?

What can Parra, Gomez/Lind, Gennett, Lohse, Garza, Broxton, K-Rod, and other sundries (Gatewood, Medeiros) secure for the Crew?

Are there free agents the Crew could acquire to either patch holes or help the 2017 team make a run?

[monty57]

Opening Day 2017

 

CF: Carlos Gomez

 

Gomez will be gone via free agency, and that is the reason people like me think he should be traded. What he's worth in trade is far greater than seeing him in a Brewer uniform for one more season when there is little hopes for the playoffs.

 

3B: Ryan Braun

 

In his youth, Braun was rated the worst defensive 3B in 100 years. Many good defenders move off of 3B as they get into their 30's, so the odds of Braun going back to third in his mid-30's are about the same as the odds of us trading for Prince Fielder to put him at center field or catcher.

[bill hAll Star]

Plus, 2017 will likely be Lucroy's last season as a Brewer (also Gomez being gone as you've noted).

 

I think they could open up the pocketbook and keep Lucroy, but I would advise the Brewers against it.

[clancyphile]

Opening Day 2017

3B: Ryan Braun

 

In his youth, Braun was rated the worst defensive 3B in 100 years. Many good defenders move off of 3B as they get into their 30's, so the odds of Braun going back to third in his mid-30's are about the same as the odds of us trading for Prince Fielder to put him at center field or catcher.

 

I got three reasons to move Braun back to third, especially if his OPS over the last 28 days (.987) is for real:

Matt Carpenter (.960 OPS so far this year as of today)

Kris Bryant (.880 OPS so far this year)

Todd Frazier (.898 OPS so far this year)

 

If the Brewers can go with an outfield of Roache, Reed, and Coulter on Opening Day 2017, then why not put Braun at third, and get offensive parity - if not superior offensive production - over NL Central rivals at that position? Moving Braun back to third, given the dearth of options in the farm system, makes sense.

 

If Braun can reliably post a .950+ OPS, is 40-45 errors a season - one every four games (or 36 innings) on average - really a deal breaker?

[clancyphile]

Plus, 2017 will likely be Lucroy's last season as a Brewer (also Gomez being gone as you've noted).

 

I think they could open up the pocketbook and keep Lucroy, but I would advise the Brewers against it.

 

Lucroy was the second-best offensive catcher in the majors in 2014, and would have been the second best in 2012 had he qualified. He was 4th best in 2013.

 

I wouldn't let him walk after 2017 - I'd try to get an extension and keep that sort of asset on the Brewers. And it'd take a huge offer to pry him away from the Brewers if I were GM.

[bill hAll Star]

Plus, 2017 will likely be Lucroy's last season as a Brewer (also Gomez being gone as you've noted).

 

I think they could open up the pocketbook and keep Lucroy, but I would advise the Brewers against it.

 

Lucroy was the second-best offensive catcher in the majors in 2014, and would have been the second best in 2012 had he qualified. He was 4th best in 2013.

 

I wouldn't let him walk after 2017 - I'd try to get an extension and keep that sort of asset on the Brewers. And it'd take a huge offer to pry him away from the Brewers if I were GM.

 

I would advise most GMs against signing 32-year-old catchers to 5+ year, 100+ million dollar contracts. I can't imagine that those guys age well into their late 30s. I can almost guarantee that thing is going to be a massive burden about 2 years into the deal.

 

Molina and Mauer (not catching anymore) have much more wear and tear in the majors, but those guys are beginning to majorly decline at 32. Russel Martin is still going strong at 32 but this is just the beginning of his mega-deal. Jason Kendall was really good and fell off around age 30. McCann has gone to a much better hitting park and he's declining at 30. Pudge fell off the cliff at 34-35.

 

Piazza and Posada were good until their late 30s, but (especially in Piazza's case)...there's the whole steroids era thing.

 

I'd rather save that money into extending the 2-3 stud prospects that we receive for him on his current excellent contract.

 

I've been living with the "win now" mantra of Mark even though I prefer more of a youth movement the past few years. I've liked the value on a ton of the moves they've made at the MLB level lately. I would be livid if they gave Lucroy a big contract after this one unless they are somehow in a competitive window and they can keep the thing under 4 or 5 years. That contract seems like it would be horrendous for them.

[FVBrewerFan]

As I'm reading all these posts, here are few random thoughts:

 

Braun will never play 3B again. 1B could be an option down the road, never 3B.

 

Lind has more value than he's been given credit for. If he keeps this up there will be teams that would love to have a LH bat like that.

 

I hope they aim for better talent at lower levels than mediocre talent at higher levels for guys like Lohse, Parra, Ramirez. I don't want good prospects in AA or AAA, would rather have great prospects at A, A+, etc.

 

If KRod keeps this up, they better get a great return for him. Wait until at least 2 or 3 contending teams need a closer, and break their bank on prospects.

 

I just don't see them trading Lucroy, so it's a mute point. Braun and Gomez during the off-season is realistic. And yes, I could see a blockbuster deal in the hot stove league. Any combination of Braun, Gomez, Lind, The Count, and name your middle IF

 

Forget win now- or next year. Look at the rotation! Best bet is Peralta and Nelson can find a way to be more consistent and closer to their ceiling. Throw in a Fiers/Thornburg, etc. as the 5th starter. Hope that Wagner or someone can be the #3 guy in 2017, then add a Lohse type as your #4. (Or you get real lucky and can add 2 guys from the system to the rotation. Which is possible if they make the right trades this year.)

 

Part of their target in trades should be young bullpen arms. Enough of starting from scratch every year with has beens and never will bes. Develop a core of 4-5 guys you will have in the pen for 6 years.

 

Finally, bottom line is most of the talent in the system is at AA and below. So, in any trades, that's where they should focus. Build up Appleton-Biloxi so you have a rush of talent at the same time in 2017,2018. That is no guarantee of success, but I do believe it is the best option on the table.

[TooLiveBrew]

If Braun can reliably post a .950+ OPS, is 40-45 errors a season - one every four games (or 36 innings) on average - really a deal breaker?

For the umpteenth time in the umpteenth thread in recent months, yes. Preventing runs has a stronger correlation to winning than scoring runs. The 40-50 potential errors you cite, along with all the bad plays he'd make that wouldn't get technically scored as errors, would be a huge detriment to the club's attempt to win games. There is no justification for him being at 3B, just like there would've been no justification for playing someone like a Prince Fielder circa 2011 at 3B.

[superfly]

One thing's for certain...i've gotten one heck of a headache reading this thread the past few weeks.

[Brewer Fever]

The mere suggestion of moving Braun back to 3B should be a bannable offense at this point.

[yfinn6]

One thing's for certain...i've gotten one heck of a headache reading this thread the past few weeks.

 

Well, I'm not a doctor, but if that's true then perhaps not reading this thread might help with that problem.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Even Braun has said he'll never play 3B again. Clancy's going to ride that horse into the ground for all it's worth though.

[miggs721]

Makin the trip down to Atlanta today for tonights game and tomorrows, I'll be able to see first hand if we should be sellers, or buyers come the deadline. (sarcasm)

[Boomer5]

I posted in the rumors thread that LA needs to be the target team. They desperately needs starting pitching, and Braun would fit beautifully into their needs as a California kid and for them a manageable contract.

 

Seeing what the Cubs did with Oakland, a Lohse, Garza, Braun deal could set the Brewers up for a decade.

[logan82]

If Braun can reliably post a .950+ OPS, is 40-45 errors a season - one every four games (or 36 innings) on average - really a deal breaker?

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/emb1.gif

[Invader3K]

The team is now 15-27. They are 12.5 games back in the NL Central. They are nine games back from a Wild Card, and there are 11 teams ahead of them right now in that race. They really should be shopping most of their tradeable players come June 1st, if they aren't already. If now doesn't scream "Time to rebuild", I don't know when it does. #sellsellsell

[brewmann04]

I agree 100% Invader hopefully DM has put the league on notice he willing to sell.

[Invader3K]

I just looked it up, and the Brewers also have the second worst run differential in all of MLB at -51. Only the Phillies are worse. Does this sound like a team that can "turn it around?"