Open for business (part 1)

[LouisEly]

But to the example of Gagne, these are the types of "opportunity costs" that exist on these deals. I hear people say "I don't mind that deal because it's just money," or "...because it's short-term," but that money could have been used elsewhere. "

You're exactly right, there are opportunity costs. There are opportunity costs for investing in major league players instead of prospects. And there are opportunity costs for investing in prospects instead of major league players (not competing, not giving free agents a reason to sign here because they think the team is not likely to or trying to compete which makes the chances of competing even less). They thought the opportunity costs of not going for it were greater than the opportunity costs of not investing in prospects.

 

Prospects are the future, but the future is always unknown so in business you always discount future values. There are zero guarantees for the future. Sure you can say they could have done both, but the reality is that they didn't have the resources to do both. They would have had to make perfect decisions about every player to sign to the major league club and every prospect to give high signing bonuses to. But no team, no GM, no director of scouting makes perfect decisions. They didn't have the resources to allow for the extra cushion needed to account for the percentage of decisions that would not pan out. That's what a high payroll gives you - the resources to make up for the bad decisions that are invariably going to be made. If they tried both they would have built the major league club half-arsed and the farm system half-arsed and neither would accomplish anything. The only had the resources to do one thing whole-arsed.

[monty57]

But to the example of Gagne, these are the types of "opportunity costs" that exist on these deals. I hear people say "I don't mind that deal because it's just money," or "...because it's short-term," but that money could have been used elsewhere. "

You're exactly right, there are opportunity costs. There are opportunity costs for investing in major league players instead of prospects. And there are opportunity costs for investing in prospects instead of major league players (not competing, not giving free agents a reason to sign here because they think the team is not likely to or trying to compete which makes the chances of competing even less). They thought the opportunity costs of not going for it were greater than the opportunity costs of not investing in prospects.

 

Prospects are the future, but the future is always unknown so in business you always discount future values. There are zero guarantees for the future. Sure you can say they could have done both, but the reality is that they didn't have the resources to do both. They would have had to make perfect decisions about every player to sign to the major league club and every prospect to give high signing bonuses to. But no team, no GM, no director of scouting makes perfect decisions. They didn't have the resources to allow for the extra cushion needed to account for the percentage of decisions that would not pan out. That's what a high payroll gives you - the resources to make up for the bad decisions that are invariably going to be made. If they tried both they would have built the major league club half-arsed and the farm system half-arsed and neither would accomplish anything. The only had the resources to do one thing whole-arsed.

 

Good managers (whether in baseball or any other business) have to be able to do this. They know the future will come, so they plan accordingly. Making excuses for why "we can't" is what constitutes a business doomed to failure.

 

The "real world" comparable to prospects would be research & development. Most new product ideas fail, but that's why you pay big money to constantly have lots of researchers working on lots of new products. Do you think winning companies like Apple or Pfizer would ever give up their R&D departments so that they could sell more iPads or Lipitor today? 3M is known for saying "we pay people to fail," because they want their R&D dept to constantly try new things, even though they know the vast majority of them will fail. When asked why he didn't give up after so many failed attempts at the light bulb, Thomas Edison said "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." Henry Ford is famous for reinvesting almost every penny he made back into his company, knowing in his heart that eventually it would pay off. Instead of buying a big, fancy house and new truck when he started making money, Sam Walton kept the same small house and same old truck in order to reinvest his money into his second, third, etc Wal-Mart stores. Who knows what the future would have been if a new house and new truck would have been more important than opening that second store. I'm sure there are similar stories to this to pretty much every successful business, but I doubt any of them said "we need to forget about the future so we can sell more product today." Not thinking of the future is the most "half-arsed" thing you can do in business.

 

I think Melvin has a lot of positive traits (I'm not a Melvin hater), but in this sense, Melvin seems to act more like a bureaucrat then a general manager, getting a payroll budget handed to him and making sure to spend every penny of it. I doubt that there's once in the past decade that he's left any money on the table. You would think that occasionally not spending the money on payroll would be a better option than spending the money.

[Ennder]

Lohse now has a 3.66 ERA in his past 5 starts. It will only take a few more to get him to where he has some sort of trade value if we go that route.

[MrTPlush]

I think the Attanasio is moving away from the spending every dime. Before I think it was just the fact they had that growing payroll and all these big homegrown players they could resign. So they always were pushing the payroll to the limit. Now you have these sad attempts to try and compete which requires to spend all the payroll.

 

I expect the payroll to shrink in the mini rebuild and some big investments in the international market.

[danzig6767]

Lohse now has a 3.66 ERA in his past 5 starts. It will only take a few more to get him to where he has some sort of trade value if we go that route.

It will be interesting to see what goes down at the trade deadline overall, not just the Brewers.

 

We've seen less trades the last few years, especially sizable trades at the deadline. My guess for this is twofold

 

1. The rule change where teams no longer get a comp pick unless a player is with a team all season. In the past when teams traded for a quality player in the last year of his contract, one reason that they could stomach trading a good prospect or multiple prospects for a half year rental is that they knew they'd get at least a comp pick for that player if he signed with a different team as free agent. The Brewers for example knew they'd get a comp pick for Sabbathia. That trade incentive is now gone.

 

2. It seems like teams today value prospects more than ever before, even many bigger market teams. With player salaries exploding for good veteran players, having cost controlled guys for six years is so important to help counter balance the pricey veterans on a roster. Thus, a lot of teams just are more hesitant today to make major trades where they give up say a top 20-40ish player along with another lesser or prospect or two at the deadline.

 

As for Lohse, if he keeps pitching well, i could see another team trading for him, but my guess is the return wouldn't be all that much given he'd only be a rental and not the type of starting pitcher to be a must start guy in the playoffs if a trading team were to make it.

[Ennder]

but my guess is the return wouldn't be all that much given he'd only be a rental and not the type of starting pitcher to be a must start guy in the playoffs if a trading team were to make it.

 

My guess is you are wrong. If a team is willing to trade for him it is because they believe he is the pitcher of the past 2 season where he was completely viable as a playoff pitcher.

[nate82]

but my guess is the return wouldn't be all that much given he'd only be a rental and not the type of starting pitcher to be a must start guy in the playoffs if a trading team were to make it.

 

My guess is you are wrong. If a team is willing to trade for him it is because they believe he is the pitcher of the past 2 season where he was completely viable as a playoff pitcher.

 

If past trades are any indication of what Lohse is worth it would tell us he is at least worth a B/B- type prospect. The Lackey trade last year is where I would put Lohse's trade value at.

[logan82]

Trading him for something is better than nothing or risking the QO.

[MrTPlush]

but my guess is the return wouldn't be all that much given he'd only be a rental and not the type of starting pitcher to be a must start guy in the playoffs if a trading team were to make it.

 

My guess is you are wrong. If a team is willing to trade for him it is because they believe he is the pitcher of the past 2 season where he was completely viable as a playoff pitcher.

 

If past trades are any indication of what Lohse is worth it would tell us he is at least worth a B/B- type prospect. The Lackey trade last year is where I would put Lohse's trade value at.

 

John Lackey had a $500,000 option...Lohse does not. Their value is not very comparable.

[Ennder]

 

John Lackey had a $500,000 option...Lohse does not. Their value is not very comparable.

 

His first start for the Cardinals was also in August. I'd hope if we decide to blow the team up that we would start trading earlier than that. He was also traded for major league proven talent and not prospects so I don't think we'd get the same type of deal since I'd assume we are looking for prospects that are a couple years off still.

[trwi7]

but my guess is the return wouldn't be all that much given he'd only be a rental and not the type of starting pitcher to be a must start guy in the playoffs if a trading team were to make it.

 

My guess is you are wrong. If a team is willing to trade for him it is because they believe he is the pitcher of the past 2 season where he was completely viable as a playoff pitcher.

 

If past trades are any indication of what Lohse is worth it would tell us he is at least worth a B/B- type prospect. The Lackey trade last year is where I would put Lohse's trade value at.

 

You're thinking of Masterson. He got a former 1st round pick who was 24 and had decent numbers. His numbers this year are horrible though.

 

Lackey got Kelly and Craig.

[Eye Black]

Finally got a chance to read through this entire thread. There is some great dialogue throughout from posters with very different opinions and organization building philosophies. One comment in particular that sparked some good commentary...

 

People comparing the Brewers situation to the Cubs or Astros of a few years ago are off base. Neither of those teams had one trade chip on the level of Gomez or Lucroy, let alone two. They each had awful contracts to get out from under as well.

 

Trading Gomez and Lucroy would get 4-5 great prospects. You don't need much more than that to have a new wave of talent come through. It would be this year and next, and by 2017 many of them would already be in the big leagues. It's not a long-term thing they'd be looking at.

A successful rebuilding process relies on a combination of all three of the primary ways to acquire young talent (draft, international market, trades). Regarding specifically the Astros and Cubs it seems like both have done it a little differently, but both have used trades as a significant contributing factor to building talented young cores. They have also obviously drafted in the range where there is a much greater probability to acquire impact talent and had some success on the international market as well. For each team, the rebuilding process has played out over a handful of years now.

 

While I think hoping for a meaningful major league turnaround by 2017 is a little ambitious, I do agree with Oldcity's assertion that the Brewers still sit in a more enviable starting point for a rebuild than the Cubs and Astros once did. One team that seems to have recently accelerated the rebuilding process by using quality MLB talent to acquire good young talent is the Braves. Since the end of last season they have sacrificed their potential for present day success in order to stock their organization with enough quality depth that the odds would seem in their favor for future payoff. Since the end of last season they have added the following players via trade:

 

Shelby Miller, RHP - Cardinals

Matt Wisler, RHP - Padres

Michael Foltynewicz, RHP - Astros

Max Fried, LHP - Padres

Rio Ruiz, 3B - Astros

Tyrell Jenkins, RHP - Cardinals

Manny Banuelos, LHP - Yankees

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP - Cubs

Jose Briceno, C - Rockies

Dustin Peterson, 3B - Padres

Jace Peterson, INF - Padres

Ricardo Sanchez, LHP - Angels

Mallex Smith, OF - Padres

Andrew Thurman, RHP - Astros

 

Certainly not all of these players will become stars or even MLB regulars, but it would seem likely that there are enough good players on that list to provide a strong young core in the near future. Now the Braves began to execute their rebuilding plan a little earlier in the process than the Brewers, so they probably had some more attractive trade options overall. Still, the Brewers have some players that will be highly sought after in the coming months, and I think at this point they must use it to their advantage to help supplement the core for what will be their next good (hopefully great) major league team.

[logan82]

That would be great. We just need Melvin or, in my opinion, Mark to sign off on that. Melvin hasn't, to this point, traded much MLB talent until he had to in a long long time until.

[brewmann04]

Time to open up the roster to trades. This team will not contend and why wait to the trade deadline.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Time to open up the roster to trades. This team will not contend and why wait to the trade deadline.

 

I'm sure they've been open to trades for awhile now. Melvin even said himself, teams don't wanna deal this early. Gotta wait till mid-late June before anything heats up. When do you ever see trades this early in baseball?

[splitterpfj]

Time to open up the roster to trades. This team will not contend and why wait to the trade deadline.

 

I'm sure they've been open to trades for awhile now. Melvin even said himself, teams don't wanna deal this early. Gotta wait till mid-late June before anything heats up. When do you ever see trades this early in baseball?

 

That' exactly right, it's one thing for the Brewers to say, "Make an offer", but the other teams have to make their decisions too, before anything gets done.

 

I would bet Lohse goes in June. He's a known commodity, the trade equivalent of a "safe" draft pick. The Brewers aren't going to get someone's best prospect for Lohse, but they'll get a solid one - the more starts he makes for his new team, the better for Milwaukee. Teams need to decide, for certain, that they have the need - I'm not worried, that will happen.

[brewmann04]

well june is not that far off so i hope to see some action then.

[splitterpfj]

Stay with it, Brewmann, I think Lohse has 5-6 more starts for the Brewers, going in late June. Lohse is pitching better, which doesn't surprise me, and he's got a good reputation as both a pitcher and a teammate - there will be interest.

 

Some bigger name, more expensive pitchers may be traded a little later, guys like Cole Hamels, and Johnny Cueto. The teams that have those players will probably take a little longer to work out their deals, because they will be bigger and more complex. I think the Lohse trade, when it happens, will move very quickly. A team or two are ready to get an arm, Lohse is right there, quick and easy, and helpful to them...a couple of phone calls, and a trade.

[brewmann04]

it was funny the met announcers said almost the same thing. they felt he will go on a roll in his next to 4-5 starts.

[wildcat2237]

Stay with it, Brewmann, I think Lohse has 5-6 more starts for the Brewers, going in late June. Lohse is pitching better, which doesn't surprise me, and he's got a good reputation as both a pitcher and a teammate - there will be interest.

 

Some bigger name, more expensive pitchers may be traded a little later, guys like Cole Hamels, and Johnny Cueto. The teams that have those players will probably take a little longer to work out their deals, because they will be bigger and more complex. I think the Lohse trade, when it happens, will move very quickly. A team or two are ready to get an arm, Lohse is right there, quick and easy, and helpful to them...a couple of phone calls, and a trade.

 

I agree with this completely. I think Melvin has a pretty good idea what he thinks Loshe is worth and would love to dump that salary. As soon as a team makes a competitive offer Melvin will pull the trigger.

 

On the other hand if the Brewers decide to trade Lucroy or Gomez, that trade will take a while to develop and would look a lot like the Greinke trade a while back. Probably 5 or 6 players would need to be involved.

[logan82]

I think Gomez and Lucroy are likely to go in the offseason if they are traded. Lohse and Parra are likely the 2 guys we trade in season.

[brewmann04]

I think they will have to be blown away for Luc. Gomez I can seeing going this season if the right deal comes along like the story goes it takes two to tango.

[Boomer5]

Finally got a chance to read through this entire thread. There is some great dialogue throughout from posters with very different opinions and organization building philosophies. One comment in particular that sparked some good commentary...

 

People comparing the Brewers situation to the Cubs or Astros of a few years ago are off base. Neither of those teams had one trade chip on the level of Gomez or Lucroy, let alone two. They each had awful contracts to get out from under as well.

 

Trading Gomez and Lucroy would get 4-5 great prospects. You don't need much more than that to have a new wave of talent come through. It would be this year and next, and by 2017 many of them would already be in the big leagues. It's not a long-term thing they'd be looking at.

A successful rebuilding process relies on a combination of all three of the primary ways to acquire young talent (draft, international market, trades). Regarding specifically the Astros and Cubs it seems like both have done it a little differently, but both have used trades as a significant contributing factor to building talented young cores. They have also obviously drafted in the range where there is a much greater probability to acquire impact talent and had some success on the international market as well. For each team, the rebuilding process has played out over a handful of years now.

 

While I think hoping for a meaningful major league turnaround by 2017 is a little ambitious, I do agree with Oldcity's assertion that the Brewers still sit in a more enviable starting point for a rebuild than the Cubs and Astros once did. One team that seems to have recently accelerated the rebuilding process by using quality MLB talent to acquire good young talent is the Braves. Since the end of last season they have sacrificed their potential for present day success in order to stock their organization with enough quality depth that the odds would seem in their favor for future payoff. Since the end of last season they have added the following players via trade:

 

Shelby Miller, RHP - Cardinals

Matt Wisler, RHP - Padres

Michael Foltynewicz, RHP - Astros

Max Fried, LHP - Padres

Rio Ruiz, 3B - Astros

Tyrell Jenkins, RHP - Cardinals

Manny Banuelos, LHP - Yankees

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP - Cubs

Jose Briceno, C - Rockies

Dustin Peterson, 3B - Padres

Jace Peterson, INF - Padres

Ricardo Sanchez, LHP - Angels

Mallex Smith, OF - Padres

Andrew Thurman, RHP - Astros

 

Certainly not all of these players will become stars or even MLB regulars, but it would seem likely that there are enough good players on that list to provide a strong young core in the near future. Now the Braves began to execute their rebuilding plan a little earlier in the process than the Brewers, so they probably had some more attractive trade options overall. Still, the Brewers have some players that will be highly sought after in the coming months, and I think at this point they must use it to their advantage to help supplement the core for what will be their next good (hopefully great) major league team.

 

The Braves are a great analogy and I hadnt thought about then. What they did to the Cardinals was true robbery.

 

Braun I would think represents the similar trade value as Heyward? If they can unload Braun and bring back that kind of package. Gomez would net 2 top 100 types minimum. And Luc can get us virtually anyone in the game. Lohse can get a quality prospect/s thought not top 100. I would think Garza has value just because of his resume and his position. I have no idea what anyone would give us for Broxton and KRod.

 

The farm system is now stocked and the payroll is now clear. Does Mark A sign off? Is CC the right manager for a young team like that?

[TheCrew07]

The Cardinals sure made some puzzling moves but it all worked for them again... somehow that organization has turned everything into gold over the last 10 seasons. There's just no way I would have given up Shelby Miller... personally I would have much rather kept Miller, Wacha, and Martinez especially with their 2 mainstays from the past, Wainwright and Carpenter, either very old or retired.

 

Tyrell Jenkins was kind of their version of Jeremy Jeffress, a enigmatic performer with a big arm, but I would have had a hard time giving up on him as well, even with Alex Reyes (who by the way is putting up video game #s).

 

Then again, I'm always looking to build the rotation first and come from the background of never having enough pitching.

[Boomer5]

I dont think Id ever make a trade unless I got back a big arm type to round out the deal as a filler. Think a Jeff Juden type as a throw in and see if we can harness it.