Open for business (part 1)

[markedman5]

@BNightengale: The #Brewers, 5-18, are letting teams know they will make their veterans available on trade market: Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Aramis Ramirez.

[paul253]

Until they add the names Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy I will not believe they are serious about turning the franchise around.

 

Ramirez is basically worthless. He's old. He can't stay healthy. And he's going to retire next year. Why would anyone give up something significant to get him? Lohse has struggled so far. He's a free agent after the season and he's old too. Garza may get you something but not a franchise saver. I'm all for trading them but you're looking at a minimal return. It'll end up mostly being a money saver.

[nate82]

Until they add the names Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy I will not believe they are serious about turning the franchise around.

 

Lucroy and Gomez are names that the Brewers should not be openly shopping. Teams need to be coming to the Brewers for those two.

[trwi7]

Until they add the names Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy I will not believe they are serious about turning the franchise around.

 

Ramirez is basically worthless. He's old. He can't stay healthy. And he's going to retire next year. Why would anyone give up something significant to get him? Lohse has struggled so far. He's a free agent after the season and he's old too. Garza may get you something but not a franchise saver. I'm all for trading them but you're looking at a minimal return. It'll end up mostly being a money saver.

 

Agree with this. Oh, we're putting old veterans who for the most part have been terrible on the trade block? Yay, I guess.

[LouisEly]

[sarcasm]So Lohse's 3.35 and 3.51 ERAs in a hair under 200IP each of the last two seasons and Garza's 3.64 ERA last year were terrible? And Ramirez's .901 OPS in 2012, .831 OPS in 2013, and his 10th among 29 qualified MLB 3B .757 OPS in 2014 was terrible? Learn something new every day.[/sarcasm]

[TheCrew07]

[sarcasm]So Lohse's 3.35 and 3.51 ERAs in a hair under 200IP each of the last two seasons and Garza's 3.64 ERA last year were terrible? And Ramirez's .901 OPS in 2012, .831 OPS in 2013, and his 10th among 29 qualified MLB 3B .757 OPS in 2014 was terrible? Learn something new every day.[/sarcasm]

 

Hooray for being a rampant organizational apologist across every forum on this board? Because what an aging player did last year is representative of what he'll do this year? Mark A. is that you?

 

In Ramirez you're really going to defend a player who's over 35, has a horrible negative 3 year trend offensively, has no range in the field anymore, hasn't been able to stay healthy, and is going to retire after the season?

 

Garza isn't terrible, but he's not exactly going to be bring back an impact prospect either, he's pretty much a #3 right now.

 

Lohse never had stuff, his FB pretty much sits below 90, and he's also 36 years old and is getting hit hard. He could be a #3 for someone or this could be the beginning of the end. What are you going to bet on?

 

All 3 of these guys would be traded at their lowest possible value, consider me underwhelmed as well.

[SoupTown]

Our management have ear marked the aging, overpaid, down trend vets. The only team that would value them to give up something for is.... the Brewers. Our only hope is some teams are desperate for an average contributor to fill a gaping hole. Then we get a couple A prospects. Sort of like the Bandera - A ball 'maybe' we gave for Parra. And it looks like we gave away quite the talent.

 

So, when you are trading old vets, it is a lottery who you get.

 

I actually wish they would add Gomez, Lucroy, Segura, Scooter, Lind to the list. I will be insane with sadness if we decide to do a 1/10th rebuild.

[nate82]

Hooray for being a rampant organizational apologist across every forum on this board? Because what an aging player did last year is representative of what he'll do this year? Mark A. is that you?

 

I swore this was the Brewerfan.net forums and not the ESPN forums.

[Ennder]

And the rats come crawling out of the woodworks. If the team goes on a small hot streak they will go scurrying back into the darkness but for now they rule supreme feeding on a poor streak.

[superfly]

I actually wish they would add Gomez, Lucroy, Segura, Scooter, Lind to the list. I will be insane with sadness if we decide to do a 1/10th rebuild.

 

You better start preparing yourself for disappointment then...Ramirez will retire, we will patch up 3B with another 30 something, add 1 or 2 other pieces and then be sold a bill of goods that we "can do it this time" before Gomez is a FA.

[Lee16]

And the rats come crawling out of the woodworks. If the team goes on a small hot streak they will go scurrying back into the darkness but for now they rule supreme feeding on a poor streak.

 

A poor streak? Over their last 81 games, they are what, like 27 and 54? That's not a poor streak, that's a poor team, period.

[Invader3K]

re: Gomez and Lucroy, Gomez is probably coming off the DL just today, and Lucroy will still be on it for a while. How many teams are going to trade for a guy who is hurt?

[Bombers]

And the rats come crawling out of the woodworks. If the team goes on a small hot streak they will go scurrying back into the darkness but for now they rule supreme feeding on a poor streak.

 

A poor streak? Over their last 81 games, they are what, like 27 and 54? That's not a poor streak, that's a poor team, period.

And since May 1st of last year they are 67 - 89 for a .429 winning %. This is a bad team. Period.

 

It is time to hit the reset button

[paul253]

And the rats come crawling out of the woodworks. If the team goes on a small hot streak they will go scurrying back into the darkness but for now they rule supreme feeding on a poor streak.

 

The "rats" as you say have been calling for this for years. Don't mistake us for people who jumped off the bandwagon after 23 games. The writing has been on the wall for awhile now and to those who bothered to look at it this season is no surprise. This team is way, way too veteran oriented and those vets are showing their age. A little 6 or 7 game win streak isn't going to change anything.

re: Gomez and Lucroy, Gomez is probably coming off the DL just today, and Lucroy will still be on it for a while. How many teams are going to trade for a guy who is hurt?

 

I don't think people are suggesting we trade them like....today. Obviously they have to get back into game shape and show they are healthy. But even though they are hurt you can still let team's know they can be had for the right price.

[igor67]

Those predicting the demise of the Brewers deserve no particular credit. As they rightly claim they have been doing so for years. And that's why there are no bonus points to be had. If you take a .500ish team and play enough seasons you'll get some real duds, which is what this year looks like. But you also get years like last year where it took an epic collapse to keep them out of the playoffs.

I agree however that the time has come to significantly turn over the roster, but to maximize value in the trades you do execute you want to preserve that leverage (without being Amaro Jr. level obstinate), so offering the older short termers makes sense. One would hope that over the next month or so some of their performances would improve, so you could justify getting something. However if done particularly well one could preserve the plausibility of playing for next year until you do something drastic like get an excellent offer on Gomez. That rampant fear many have of the same old same old actually makes it much easier to bluff that Melvin will just go status quo.

It is also worth noting that it is much easier to see how the team could turn over much of the roster and be back to an interesting team in a year or two than at any point in the last 3 or 4 years. We could still use starting pitchers and a performing first and/or 3rd base prospect, but its not hard to draw up a major league outfield and middle of the diamond with guys on the farm.

[paul253]

But you also get years like last year where it took an epic collapse to keep them out of the playoffs.

Last year was not an epic collapse. After the first month of the season this was a team that played 10 games under .500. They played 16 games under over the last 3 months, which was basically half the season. They were only in first place for as long as they were because it took St. Louis and Pittsburgh longer than normal to get going. Last year's team was not good. Neither was the team before that, or the team before that. This organization has reeked of "average" over Melvin's entire career with two exceptions. Two exceptions that occurred almost entirely due to the ace pitcher that Melvin traded for. So now we're supposed to be excited that Melvin is reportedly offering up a bunch of expensive, washed-up veterans to anyone willing to take them?

 

Nobody is suggesting Melvin has to make public statements specifically naming Gomez and Lucroy as available. But if everyone here knows Melvin's M.O., which is to not trade anyone until the final year of their contract, then surely people in the game know it too. So maybe just make a subtle statement along the lines of "the organization is obviously not where we want it to be and right now I don't know if anyone would be considered untouchable". Just make it known that you're not going to stick to the same old thinking you've stuck to for the past decade and that you might be willing to move someone who isn't a free agent after this season. That doesn't mean you have to trade them, just give other teams the idea that it's not out of the realm of possibility.

[WV Brew]

The problem with trading guys like Lucroy and Gomez is that Melvin will then likely flip prospects for their MLB ready replacements (or sign free agents giving up draft choices). They are not going to go with Maldonado as an everyday catcher whether they are rebuilding or not. Same with Logan Schafer in CF. This would then defeat the purpose of making the deal.

 

Look, I don't mind making trades that make sense but I'm against announcing we are rebuilding and then making bad trades just to say we did something.

[MrTPlush]

You guys are such experts on what the Brewers plan on doing....it is actually really impressive. How do you know Melvin will flip all the prospects for MLB ready replacements? Has he ever done that before?...No. He flipped a lot of drafted prospects when a team was really good, but never once did he trade guys like Fielder or Braun to reload a roster for next year. Attanasio/Melvin have never been in a situation like this and to just pretend you know everything they will do is halarious.

 

There is no reason to be shopping any of our young highly valuable players right now that have team control. We can wait till July when more suitors are lined up or even the off-season when just about every team might have some interest. Shopping them now would be a dumb idea...if someone comes and blows the Brewers away that is different.

 

Veteran rentals are always the first guys on the block...calm down and step away from the keyboard.

[folly412]

Patience. Most teams don't know if they're buying yet. They'll pull the trigger for a Lohse or Garza only if they can get them at a bargain price. It'll be two months before most teams become serious contenders and are willing to pay for a missing piece. Also waiting for the draft to determine which current prospects aren't as essential to long-term plans. Then the top trade pieces will demand several top prospects, and we'll get whatever our best value is for our not top trade pieces to organizations not willing to trade the whole farm. Just hope we go the true prospect route; Melvin's always been inclined to find "major league ready" prospects; teams willing to part with them usually means they're "ready" to spend a career on the bench or in AAA.

[owbc]

There is no reason to be shopping any of our young highly valuable players right now that have team control. We can wait till July when more suitors are lined up or even the off-season when just about every team might have some interest. Shopping them now would be a dumb idea...if someone comes and blows the Brewers away that is different.

 

Besides the condescending tone of your post, the message is right. The value of Lucroy and Gomez will increase later, while the value of the veterans is the highest it will be right now.

 

I think Mark A and Melvin are coming around to the right idea, but I doubt they are willing to go full Houston Astros. And who knows if that would be the right decision anyway.

[clancyphile]

Patience. Most teams don't know if they're buying yet. They'll pull the trigger for a Lohse or Garza only if they can get them at a bargain price. It'll be two months before most teams become serious contenders and are willing to pay for a missing piece. Also waiting for the draft to determine which current prospects aren't as essential to long-term plans. Then the top trade pieces will demand several top prospects, and we'll get whatever our best value is for our not top trade pieces to organizations not willing to trade the whole farm. Just hope we go the true prospect route; Melvin's always been inclined to find "major league ready" prospects; teams willing to part with them usually means they're "ready" to spend a career on the bench or in AAA.

 

And to get the Lohse and Garza salaries off the books might not be bad things as well. The money could be re-directed to signing bonuses for the draft and international players.

[brewcrewdue80]

But you also get years like last year where it took an epic collapse to keep them out of the playoffs.

 

Last year was not an epic collapse. After the first month of the season this was a team that played 10 games under .500.

 

So you include after the first month and take the epic collapse part ignoring the last month? 9-17month? In other words they played 2games under .500 between the first month and last of the season which is what the team was believed to be a .500 team. Which it only takes 6games winning vs. losing on the season to have 87wins. 1 game a month.

 

Now back it up 11days/10games and that the Brewers went 2-8 in or 11-26 for a collapse and suddenly between the epic collapse and the Brewers first month of the season they were 4games over .500. Now we have an owner who believe just getting in to Sept at .500 record and a hot Sept month can propel you in to the playoffs. It's happened many times so he's right. Take that first month away and up to the final 10games leading up to that last month the team would have been 4games over .500. Exactly what the owner is trying to build.

 

20-7/11-26=51-47 in between span. The team wasn't garbage since that first month. They became garbage in the final 6weeks of the season.

[RockCoCougars]

I think that many are going to be disappointed with the 'haul' that any current Brewer will bring in. They may net a couple of good prospects, but the only way this team will successfully rebuild is if they start drafting with a clue. Their drafts from 2009-2011 were brutal.

[clancyphile]

I think that many are going to be disappointed with the 'haul' that any current Brewer will bring in. They may net a couple of good prospects, but the only way this team will successfully rebuild is if they start drafting with a clue. Their drafts from 2009-2011 were brutal.

 

Yeah, they were. But recently, they have had a clue on the draft side (see Coulter). They also made a splash internationally (Lara).

 

Also, if they get the salary relief, they can try to sign more international prospects like Lara.

 

Just dumping Lohse and Garza sometime in may nets about 2/3 of $23.5 million for international signings and draft picks this year, and Garza'a also under contract for 2016 and 2017 ($12.5 million each year). Getting two or three more prospects like Lara on the international market each year could be a huge boost to the farm system.

 

Plus, tanking this season nets a good pick in the June 2016 draft.

[TheCrew07]

And the rats come crawling out of the woodworks. If the team goes on a small hot streak they will go scurrying back into the darkness but for now they rule supreme feeding on a poor streak.

 

Ha! Yea because literally saying the same things in just about every post on this subject for half a decade makes people rats because they didn't agree with your perspective.

 

A couple of years ago I started using the Cubs as an example because none of their fans would accept it was over for them until it had already been over for a couple of years... It was much of the same posting that went on here... we just need to be healthy, players x and y bounce back and we're fine, and so on.

 

It was over when the Brewers acquired Marcum and Greinke, that was the last gasp, and by over I mean hope of legitimately competing for a championship.

 

We can float around .500 never really seriously contending with the players the Brewers can afford in FA to plug holes, maybe even eek into the playoffs here and there, but that's it.

 

Baseball is about pitching and the Brewers have never developed nor acquired the young impact pitching necessary to sustain this organization, and yes it really is that simple. I'm not changing my mantra now, the roster construction was flawed even when we had that entire young core of hitters, 1 or 2 of those players needed to be sold for young pitching for this to have turned out differently. I have been firm on this idea for a long time going back to my original suggestions of moving Fielder and/or Hardy for pitching.

 

The Brewers as a franchise are completely predictable and it doesn't matter what arena you are competing in; sports, business, war... if you are predictable the competition is going to take advantage and you are going to ultimately fall far short of your objectives. The only real hope is that the people you are competing against are even more predictable or inept than you are, but in the case of the Brewers that's not the reality. The Cubs, Pirates, and Cards have excellent leadership and a wider talent pool to draw from, even the Reds have better and younger pitching talent than the Brewers.

 

In the end this about objectivity, removing emotion and seeing the situation for what it truly is, and I agree with igor in that this shouldn't be about petty bickering and "I told you so", it should be about finding common ground, since we all root for the same team.

 

There isn't much else to say that hasn't already been said 1000s of times and 100s of different ways, ultimately shouldn't the roller coaster we've been on stand for itself? Isn't the team record over the last 10 years evidence enough of the truth?