Jonathan Lucroy Trade Challenge

[reillymcshane]

If (and that's if) the club goes into rebuild mode, and Luc is made available, what's your thoughts on who Milwaukee could get for Lucory.

 

Again, this is not a 'should we trade luc' thread - just an 'if we trade Lucory' thread.

 

I would think we want to focus on acquiring younger talent, but feel free to use your imagination. You can certainly add other Brewer players into any deal.

 

I'll start with one idea - a deal with the Dodgers:

 

Brewers send: Lucroy

Dodgers send: Grant Holmes RHP, OF Alex Verdugo, RHP Chris Anderson, 2015 Competitive Draft pick (74th overall)

 

Why: Grandel is hitting .189, Ellis is hitting .150. I think that's enough said.

 

While I would love to get hold of Seager, Urias or Pederson, I just don't see the Dodgers giving up any of these guys. Each looks like they could be an all-star, and it's tough to give up these kinds of players, even for someone as good as Luc. Each of these players are either in LA now, or will be by year's end. We could certainly try to get one of these guys, but I don't think LA goes for that. Thus, the other idea.

 

For the Brewers they get Holmes, who many had as one of the potential top picks in last year's draft (but fell due to TJ surgery). He offers significant upside - but risk as well due to his youth (19) and the injury. The Brewers can afford to wait for Holmes to recover. He gives the team an arm with more upside than they've had in years. And with the Dodgers geared to win now, dealing Holmes is an acceptable trade off.

 

Anderson is at AA this year. A former #1 pick, he's had mixed success thus far, having control issues at time (like lots of young players). How far he advances will likely be determined by how well he can refine his pitches. But he offers a quality arm with some upside.

 

Verdugo was the Dodgers #2 pick last year. He could have been a pitcher, throwing 90+ mph. At 19, he's a project. In his initial season, he hit well (.353 on 190 ABs in rookie ball), and showed nice plate discipline (20BB and 18K). He's a young, well-rounded athlete who could be a plus OF and hit for good (probably great) power. Being at A ball, he's still very much an unknown and a risk, but I like what I've seen of him.

 

This trade lacks a stud minor leaguer bereft of question marks. Obviously, Holmes may be that stud player, but you never know. It's heavy on lower level guys as well, which means it will take longer for things to come to fruition.

 

Of course, we could try to get Seager or Urias, but this is an alternative to those players.

[wildcat2237]

If I were to trade Lucory I would want a top 50 prospect back in return.

 

So in other words, I would not do a deal with the Dodgers and not get back Seager or Urias.

 

Gotta give some to get some. Lucroy is the cream of the crop at the catcher position, is signed for a few more years, and is cheap.

[pacopete4]

Lucroy and Gomez to LA for Urias + Pederson and other prospects

 

Or

 

Lucroy to BOS for Swihart & Owens or other pitching prospect

[TheCrew07]

Just a note that Grant Holmes would have to be a PTBNL unless the trade took place after his signing date last summer. A player needs to be a 1 year past their signing date to be included in a trade.

 

As an aside for those don't read the draft or minor league forums Grant Holmes was of my targets at #12 last year so I would be ecstatic to get him. I liked him as a future #2 on draft day and he didn't disappoint in his debut.

[TheCrew07]

What about another trade with TX for Nomar Mazara, Nick Williams, and Luis Ortiz? None of those guys are "sure" things, but all carry legitimate upside. Obviously the guy I'd really want to take a shot at is Joey Gallo but I don't know that he's a realistic target. Beyond Gallo being the premier power hitter still left in the minor leagues TX is off to a Breweresque start which in the past has suggested Daniels will sell, but one could make an argument for a Lucroy acquisition being key for 2016.

[SRB]

I would not trade Lucroy for anything less than a top-15 prospect or multiple top-50 prospects. He would legitimately be the most valuable asset the franchise has ever traded (not because he's the best player, but he is an elite player and is ludicrously cheap for a few more years). And even that big piece or two would not be enough, Melvin should rightfully ask for a couple high-upside fliers to be tacked on as well.

 

I've thrown out my crazy Dodgers scenario in another thread (trading Lucroy and Garza for a package centered on Urias and Alex Guerrero), here's another interesting one:

 

C Jonathan Lucroy

3B Aramis Ramirez (+ $$$)

 

for

 

LHP Carlos Rodon

RHP Francellis Montas

3B Trey Micalczewski

C Kevan Smith

 

We already know the Brewers have a special fondness for Rodon.

[igor67]

My general parameters would be 3 or 4 players total coming back two of whom are excellent prospects (would move some guys out of our current top 5 prospects) I want at least 1 starting pitcher, though I'd certainly take 2 if they had the depth they were willing to deal, but I'd think it a little more likely to get a pitcher and a hitter and round out the trade with the best guys you can get regardless of position.

[MrTPlush]

Well if he turns it around by July or the end of the season I see it like this.

 

One elite prospect (Top35)

One other Top 100 prospect

Another good prospect

and lastly a low minor arm

[brewcrewdue80]

Reilly's trade idea would be I think too much honestly for LA to get Lucroy. That's 2 first rd picks, a 2nd rd pick(who had 1st rd potential) and then an end of 2nd rd draft pick(I'm guessing LA must have acquired this because no way do they get in competitive pick lottery)

 

Do these prospects have the top rankings you'd think Lucroy would fetch...No. But would they come this offseason? I'd think all three would be top 100(getting in top 100 prospect ranks as history has shown usually comes from those selected in 1st/2nd rounds so I think it's a given just looking avg to get ranked)

 

How about this one: Probably get crapped on but it's creative.

 

Brewers send Jonathon Lucroy to Detroit Tigers for:

Nick Castellanos

Derek Hill

Austin Kubitzka

Joe Jimenez.

 

Detroit being a top contender for the Central and running out of time with their aging vets. Move Cabrera back to 3b, Martinez back to 1b. Lucroy catches and is an immediate boost in offense for Det.

The Brewers take a shot at a former top 3b prospect in Castellanos to fill their 3b need long term.

They get Detroits #1 pick from 2014 in Hill.

A Groundball specialist SP in Kubitzka who with Milw's future improved defense in the infield will be a pleasant addition to have starting.

And a non-draftee surprise in Jimenez who clocks in the upper 90s and maybe fills a RP roll down the road.

 

Nothing sounds a sure thing in this return but there lies the potential. If you went to the preseason 2014 I don't think Lucroy for Castellanos straight up would have been taken due to his upside and fit for Detroit's plans. So to get him, a 1st rd selection, and 2 added pieces seems like a good haul for the team suddenly.

 

I think whether the team is in rebuild mode or just float at sub-mediocrity for a couple seasons, Castellanos' 3b fill in/potential is a perfect fill for the team while keeping 3b warm for when/if Lara cruises along to it.

 

Maybe you ignore Jimenez and ask for Bruce Rondon an oft-injured young RP who coming in to 2013 had closer profile written on him? I just don't know if I'd rather have the injured former prospect vs the young one to maybe build upon? Rondon is out currently with a right biceps tendinitis as a RHP. Do you really want to rely on someone with tendinitis in his throwing arm to reach expectations?

[SRB]

Brewers send Jonathon Lucroy to Detroit Tigers for:

Nick Castellanos

Derek Hill

Austin Kubitzka

Joe Jimenez.

 

If Melvin trades Lucroy for that, I'm lighting a bus on fire outside Miller Park.

 

Some of these proposals sound roughly equivalent to what we got from Los Angeles for a half season of Greinke. We are trading almost three years of Lucroy, the return should be massive. No way should we settle for something we could get from a desperate team at the All Star break in 2017.

[brewcrewdue80]

I figured I'd get ripped. Castellanos was a top 30 prospect mind you. He's 23 and only 1 full season in to his career. I don't think Anthony Rizzo became a breakout superstar until last year, his 3rd full playing. The trade would absolutely solve the 3b situation for the team for the future.

Hill and Jimenez look like your 19/20yr high upside acquisitions. Kubitzka? He's getting the job done to the tune of 3+ GB/AO ratio with an 8k+/9 to date.

 

Castellanos is a ML player not a prospect. He's young with upside and at a position of need for Milw. What kind of return do you want Milw to ask for in trading Lucroy?

 

You want top 50 prospects. Well that means you want ML ready prospects for the most part. A number of the to 50 are starting for their ML teams. Only 13 are age 20 or younger. Most playing for losing type teams yet or like Kolek being the #2 draft pick last season. You can acquire these types. Unless you're offering Gomez.

It's like Crew suggesting Urias or Seager 2 years ago before they rose up to being top 10 prospects. I don't believe Urias was even in the top 100 at the time. I don't like Hill personally from what he reads as, but he's young and was somehow worthy to be a 1st rd selection.

Kubitzka's performances are going to eventually take notice like Arcia's. Jimenez is the kind of RP arm that always seems to get thrown in a deal like Hellweg/Pena. Good numbers to date for him even in the PR winter league where he allowed 0 runs.

 

Urias won't be had for anybody. Seager is supposedly off the table too, but they'll listen to offers, as not they are not offering him to clubs. We overpay and it'd likely be Seager for Lucroy...Straight up in order for them to do the deal. Is that worthy for Lucroy off of your requirements?

 

Minnesota has 6 ranked in the top 50 so boom down to 44 to even ponder on. Philly has 2. 42 left. Mets 1 no need at C. 41. Take the ML star Starters added. 9 more. 32 prospects left. 7 more prospects in division 25 left. This is what the list is left

 

Carlos Correa-Not

Francisco Lindor-Not

Lucas Giolito-Not

Seager-Not

Urias-Not

Yoan Moncada-Not

Joey Gallo-Not+Competitively Tex even in it?

Jon Gray- Maybe?

Henry Owens-top 50 but with flaws not worthy of Lucroy for acquire

Dylan Bundy-Managed to not make the Majors for 2years now

Luis Severino-Guy named Brian McCann

Andrew Heaney- Maybe

Tyler Kolek-Not

Alex Jackson-Not

Mark Appel-Not

Eddie Butler-Maybe

Aaron Nola-Philly Not

Jose Peraza-Atl Not

Braden Shipley-Maybe

Raul Mondesi-Maybe?

Hunter Harvey-Maybe and then?

Jorge Alfaro-Tex Not competitive

Hunter Renfroe-Maybe but worth Lucroy?

DJ Peterson-Maybe but worth Lucroy

Austin Hedges-Maybe.

 

Baltimore's Harvey or Bundy is a good start for a trade proposal, but without including both, you don't get any ML upside filler.

You end up with Colorado, Seattle, San Diego,Arizona and Boston as teams to get your top 50 prospects from most likely. None of them over .500 currently.

[nate82]

 

Baltimore's Harvey or Bundy is a good start for a trade proposal, but without including both, you don't get any ML upside filler.

You end up with Colorado, Seattle, San Diego,Arizona and Boston as teams to get your top 50 prospects from most likely. None of them over .500 currently.

 

You are missing Houston as a possibility. Houston has Appel, Correa (not going to happen), Feliz, Velasquez, and Santana. I know the Astros traded for Gattis over the off season but he hasn't hit all that well for the Astros and he will be 30 next season. The Astros only have Castro and he hasn't looked all that great since 2013.

 

I don't really like Appel and I would rather get Feliz instead over Appel. If you want more control and a more polished pitcher then Appel would be the way to go but Appel has the same upside as Jungmann. If the Brewers could get Feliz and Santana for Lucroy that would be an awesome haul. I would also look to get Kemp or Moran but I would prefer Kemp over Moran as he brings more upside. I wouldn't be surprised if Gattis would be included in this trade.

 

If the Brewers wanted to get Correa they would have to give up a lot more and I don't think the Brewers have the chips to get Correa.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

Baltimore's Harvey or Bundy is a good start for a trade proposal, but without including both, you don't get any ML upside filler.

You end up with Colorado, Seattle, San Diego,Arizona and Boston as teams to get your top 50 prospects from most likely. None of them over .500 currently.

 

You are missing Houston as a possibility. Houston has Appel, Correa (not going to happen), Feliz, Velasquez, and Santana. I know the Astros traded for Gattis over the off season but he hasn't hit all that well for the Astros and he will be 30 next season. The Astros only have Castro and he hasn't looked all that great since 2013.

 

I don't really like Appel and I would rather get Feliz instead over Appel. If you want more control and a more polished pitcher then Appel would be the way to go but Appel has the same upside as Jungmann. If the Brewers could get Feliz and Santana for Lucroy that would be an awesome haul. I would also look to get Kemp or Moran but I would prefer Kemp over Moran as he brings more upside. I wouldn't be surprised if Gattis would be included in this trade.

 

If the Brewers wanted to get Correa they would have to give up a lot more and I don't think the Brewers have the chips to get Correa.

 

It's not that I'm forgetting about them it's that Correa is about to begin his career for Houston and not going to be touched in a trade with Milw. That leaves Appel who being a #1 pick of a draft less than 2 years ago seems like a NonChance to acquire. And that's it for Houston to have top 50 prospects right now. That's what SRB was commenting the only way he'd give up Lucroy would be that requirement. So the Astros don't qualify by that comment.

[superfly]

Brewers send Jonathon Lucroy to Detroit Tigers for:

Nick Castellanos

Derek Hill

Austin Kubitzka

Joe Jimenez.

 

If Melvin trades Lucroy for that, I'm lighting a bus on fire outside Miller Park.

 

Some of these proposals sound roughly equivalent to what we got from Los Angeles for a half season of Greinke. We are trading almost three years of Lucroy, the return should be massive. No way should we settle for something we could get from a desperate team at the All Star break in 2017.

 

It's not enough, but Castellanos has some pretty serious upside. If things went right for him he has a chance to really show something in the coming years...not to mention he has proven he can already stick at the MLB level. It's not a stretch of a trade, but i'd ask for a bit more.

[SRB]

It's not enough, but Castellanos has some pretty serious upside. If things went right for him he has a chance to really show something in the coming years...not to mention he has proven he can already stick at the MLB level. It's not a stretch of a trade, but i'd ask for a bit more.

 

Castellanos has been absolutely horrible at the MLB level, and he's a free agent only two years after Lucroy.

[MrTPlush]

Castellanos does not have very high upside. He has been an average at best hitter so far and his defense is HORRIBLE...like he shouldn't even be playing 3B bad.

[Surhoff5]

I know Dave Cameron seems like a Brewer hater and isn't right very often, but he sure seems to think they could get a truck-ton for Luc. Throws out Swihart, Correa, and Seager.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-case-for-trading-jonathan-lucroy/

[reillymcshane]

I know Dave Cameron seems like a Brewer hater and isn't right very often, but he sure seems to think they could get a truck-ton for Luc. Throws out Swihart, Correa, and Seager.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-case-for-trading-jonathan-lucroy/

This was spot on.

 

I love Luc, but trading him makes more sense than keeping him.

[fondybrewfan]

I just posted this in another thread; but Luc has 2.5 years left on his deal and is making less than $5 Million annually (Assuming the 2017 option is picked up). He is as complete of a catcher as there is right now; I am not sure there are two many prospects out there that would be off limits.

[reillymcshane]

Correa for Luc would be great. Correa looks like he's going to be awesome. Every year he has improved his slugging, batting average, SBs. He's killing AA ball - 1.160 OPS.

[pacopete4]

Correa for Luc would be great. Correa looks like he's going to be awesome. Every year he has improved his slugging, batting average, SBs. He's killing AA ball - 1.160 OPS.

 

 

I would want more than one prospect though. And, where would Correa fit in our picture? We have Arcia coming in at SS, does Correa move to 3B?

[Jenkins5]

With this whole Brewers are not willing to trade Lucroy talk, his asking price is really soaring and upping the price. The more untouchable you make him, the higher the return. Team will have to offer something that is impossible to turn down.

 

Correa is absolutely untouchable. That is like saying we would have sold off Prince or Braun right before they were set to be our future and lead us back to contention. Astros have huge plans for him and he will be face of their franchise. They won't sell him off for a run this year, they are thinking future still. Astros are not the Dodgers who can afford to give away a top prospect like Seager.

[MrTPlush]

Correa for Luc would be great. Correa looks like he's going to be awesome. Every year he has improved his slugging, batting average, SBs. He's killing AA ball - 1.160 OPS.

 

I don't see the desperation needed to make such a move on the Astros part. I have seen some crazy overpays(Addison Russell for Samardzija)...but Correa being traded when in all honestly is MLB ready would take one crazy GM.

[danzig6767]

Just keep in mind when saying that teams won't trade X prospect because he's such a huge talent, not long ago Jurickson Profar was considered arguably the best prospect in baseball. Fast forward two years and now Profar has a very questionable future.

 

So while it is true that there are some prospects which teams likely won't even consider trading, Lucroy would be incredibly valuable on the trade market given he's in his prime, plays a position with few great players, and his contract is ridiculously team friendly over the next two and a half years.

 

Lucroy is a proven MLB commodity, something no prospect is until they actually do it in the majors. If he really was put on the trade market before the deadline assuming he's healthy, he'll command elite minor league talent, especially given his contract status.

[SRB]

Thank you Dave Cameron for finally writing a sensible article!!!

 

Here's another fanciful suggestion:

 

C Jonathan Lucroy

RHP Matt Garza (and all or most of Garza's remaining contract in $$$)

 

for

 

C Blake Swihart

2B/SS Yoan Moncada

3B Garin Ceccihini

 

Swihart fills an immediate need as Lucroy's replacement and our catcher of the future, and Milwaukee finally gets the guy they really wanted in Moncada. Eating all or most of Garza's salary offsets most of Boston's financial commitment in Moncada and essentially just lets us "win" the bidding on him like we wanted to in the first place. I think you would actually still need a piece like Cecchini to balance the trade, and he fills another big need for Milwaukee as a possible starter at 3B, but if Boston loves him then we could ask for a lesser third piece instead.