Jon Heyman says Lohse, Garza could be in play soon...

[wildcat2237]

Jon Heyman made this tweet yesterday:

 

"there's belief brewers could sell soon if things don't turn. lohse/garza could be in play. one gm: 'they have good players'"

 

Would love to see the Brewers pull the trigger early in the season and get max value. If they are going to trade Lohse/Garza, I also hope they deal the expensive Aramis Ramirez and play Hererra at 3b.

 

This could explain why they sent Thronburg down to AAA to get stretched out. I imagine Blazek and Thornburg would be the first two into the rotation if Garza/Lohse traded.

 

The question is, what kind of return can the Brewers expect? Part of me says the return would be poor since Garza and Lohse are old and expensive, but then again, look what the Brewers paid for the terrible Gerardo Parra last year.

[superfly]

I posted the following in the game day thread today.

 

 

If my eyes don't deceive me, we're 7.0 games back of a wild card spot right now. That is playing the absolute worst garbage type of baseball known to mankind. If anyone really thinks we're going to sell players in the beginning of May back 7-7.5 games they're out of their minds..Doug and Mark have at least 1 more month to see how it unfolds before making a decision on the rest of the season.

 

If the Brewers go ~17-5 (they can do it with the streakiness of their bats, there is two sides to the coin) in the month of May they enter June at .500. Currently the Wild Cards are playing .500 ball.

 

There won't be ANY selling of anybodies until at least June IMO, unless Doug and MA really decide to implode it regardless.

 

 

 

Now, I am not one selling playoff hope, because the odds are probably less than 1%. But it is too early and MA will still see the sliver of hope, so it will be a month or two before we sell much of anything IMO.

[splitterpfj]

The team is on pace to be what, 70 games below .500? Honestly, even if they recalled the entire AAA roster, it can't get worse that that - that's historically bad baseball.

 

The Brewers should be better, to some degree, but I'd be disappointed if they weren't checking to see what sort of return some of these players would bring, particularly the players who are only signed through this season. I didn't expect the return the Brewers got for Gallardo, I thought they did very well in that deal, so you never know - ya gotta ask.

 

Those who want a major rebuild will hope for trades of Gomez and Lucroy, but with both guys out right now, it isn't in the cards, even if the team decides they're ready to look at that. I think Lohse makes the most sense to be dealt, if he pitches well in his next few turns. In Kyle's case, trading him sooner than later makes sense, because, as a pending free agent, his trade value will decrease as the season gets shorter. If the trade comes soon enough, the Brewers should get a prospect with a realistic chance to make it.

[DHonks]

The team will be better. Davis isn't hitting. Braun is passing the eye test but not the result test (why I traded for him in fantasy baseball this week...too bad the trade didn't go through yet). Gomez is hurt (but wasn't hitting). Scooter hasn't done anything. Lucky hasn't either. Basically, I still believe this is an 85 win team. We just need to start winning some series. It's a marathon. We had a slow start, but we have lots of time to make up ground. In fairness, I'd almost send Jungmann and Thorny to Biloxi (or AA road games) to get them out of AA in case we do well. I can see Lohse going, but since it hasn't been mentioned, I wonder if perhaps Melvin gets the vibe that Lohse may like Milwaukee and be opening to the possibility of remaining after this year. Now is not the time to trade away parts, but rather the time to add. I could see us making a bold move with Sardinas or Arcia jumping into the lineup at 2b. I hope Scooter gets back to being his old self.

[MrTPlush]

I do think there is a possibility they could dump some of their pieces early. Most likely I think it would be guys like Broxton/Ramirez/Lohse who are in their final year here. I think when it comes to our bigger chips they would likely hold on to them till all the suitors are rounded up in July...unless a crazy deal is offered.

 

As far as value...yes I think even the guys struggling have value. Jake Peavy is a good example of a guy struggling yet still getting good value. He is pretty comparable to Lohse...better, but they are similar guys. Aramis Ramirez is in the same boat, but we might have to include some money to get decent prospects.

 

Segura/Lucroy/Gomez/Garza are pretty straight forward. They all have control and pretty significant value...Garza to a lesser extent.

 

I think you would be surprised what the Brewers could/will fetch when they trade some of these guys. A team like the Padres being win now could get desperate for Segura, a lot of teams get desperate after starting rotation injuries, and the Mets may feel pressured if they continue to lead the division.

[Roderick]

A team like the Padres being win now could get desperate for Segura, a lot of teams get desperate after starting rotation injuries, and the Mets may feel pressured if they continue to lead the division.

 

That is why I think the Brewers may trade earlier than not, even if they are "only" 7 games back of the wildcard. There may be a team or two that is win now and has an obvious hole that they may not want to wait until even June to fill. Just like Melvin paid a premium to get CC early, I could see another GM doing so also.

 

While the current wildcard may be only two over .500, that winning percentage still gets them to 88 wins. The Brewers would have to go 83-57 the rest of the season to get to 88 wins (and then that may not end up being enough). Even if the Brewers were really a .500 team in disguise, they definitely are not a .600 team, so they may as well play for the future.

[brewmann04]

I am sure Doug will get his share of calls from other teams lets see what they decide to do.

[JohnBriggs12]

Too much of the season left for moves to start. The buyers today could be sellers by July and vice versa.

 

I think the Brewers will be active, but all it will take is to be 5 games over .500 in both May and June, and things will look a bit different. Now that would take a rather dramatic turnaround, but in today's game where everything is amplified, there's a lot more dramatic swings like that. The Brewers got next to nothing out of Braun, Lucroy and Ramirez and Gomez in April. If that changes this team could look a lot different.

[monty57]

but all it will take is to be 5 games over .500 in both May and June, and things will look a bit different.

 

That's why I hope the Brewers act quickly. All it's going to take is a small win streak and Brewer management can say "wait a minute, let's hold on to these guys and see how things shake out." Then we end the season with 70-something wins, and we lose the chance to get whatever we could have received in trade. Plus, if the owners lose money this year (which is probably why they're already talking about moving players as we have a record payroll) they will probably try to recoup that money over the next few seasons, meaning lower team payrolls. If we just lose Lohse, Ramirez and Parra, and don't exercise the option on Broxton, the owners will simply have the option of not replacing them, and we will really stink next year, although the owners will probably be profitable.

 

What intrigues me is that Garza's name has been in the rumors. Lohse is a no-brainer, as he's a free agent after the season, but Garza is not, and if the team were simply going to add a couple of free agents next offseason to try to stay relevant, they would not trade Garza. If he is traded, then the Brewers are probably going into full rebuild mold, as they won't have a rotation without him...at least not one they could sell the fans on as a "playoff caliber" rotation. That means we should probably expect Gomez and maybe Lucroy to get put on the trading blocks when they get off the DL. Of course, most baseball rumors are wrong, so I won't believe it until I see that a deal is done.

 

Edit: here's the MLBtraderumors bite

 

Teams are looking at the Brewers as the first team who could start selling, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. One executive speculated that Milwaukee could make everyone available except Jonathan Lucroy and Jimmy Nelson. Sherman thinks Carlos Gomez could be a big trade chip if the Brewers decide on a full rebuild and don’t think they can sign Gomez to an extension.

 

That's about what I'd expect from the Brewers if they do go into rebuild mode. They'll want to hold onto "face of the franchise" Lucroy, even though he's their best trade chip, but Gomez (another great trade chip) would probably be on the block. Kind of a surprise Peralta wasn't mentioned, but he is about to hit arbitration. This season could get really interesting for "armchair GM" Brewer fans.

[pacopete4]

Cool so Jon Heyman is basically a guy who writes on this board? Such shocking things that he reports!

[brewcrewdue80]

I love the if the Brewers decide on a full rebuild rebuild and don't think they can sign Gomez to an extension part.

 

Come on. We should know already, the entire baseball world Gomez will go to FA. It's not a don't think. It's just letting Gomez walk with nothing to show for it.

 

 

Here's the thing about Lohse or Garza being in play soon. Teams are losing SPs. Tanaka along with Nova/Capuano, Wainwright, McCarthy, Bailey though Reds not likely a playoff buyer, Skaggs, Peavy and Cain, Iwakuma, and Darvish/Holland/Harrison/Tepesch/Perez

 

Some quality pitchers, some mid #3 types. Which is exactly where a Garza or Lohse can fill in. Wouldn't Garza seem like a perfect fit for the Yankees? Atop their division and over-reacting that they need to fill in their pitcher holes to remain in that division race?

Seattle. Why not Lohse? Between Paxton, Walker, Happ, and Elias as the group following the King, they could use that solidifier Lohse stands to be. I don't know about he upside we can get for Lohse. Looking at Seattle's prospects a Ketal Marte 2b/SS type of Utility or everyday 2b seems to be about the value I'd think of Lohse. Edwin Diaz sounds a little bit of an intriguing SP to maybe snatch up and hope develops. You acquire Marte, it would maybe make Gennett available for trade if he got it going.

[wildcat2237]

\

 

Here's the thing about Lohse or Garza being in play soon. Teams are losing SPs. Tanaka along with Nova/Capuano, Wainwright, McCarthy, Bailey though Reds not likely a playoff buyer, Skaggs, Peavy and Cain, Iwakuma, and Darvish/Holland/Harrison/Tepesch/Perez

 

Some quality pitchers, some mid #3 types. Which is exactly where a Garza or Lohse can fill in. Wouldn't Garza seem like a perfect fit for the Yankees? Atop their division and over-reacting that they need to fill in their pitcher holes to remain in that division race?

Seattle. Why not Lohse? Between Paxton, Walker, Happ, and Elias as the group following the King, they could use that solidifier Lohse stands to be. I don't know about he upside we can get for Lohse. Looking at Seattle's prospects a Ketal Marte 2b/SS type of Utility or everyday 2b seems to be about the value I'd think of Lohse. Edwin Diaz sounds a little bit of an intriguing SP to maybe snatch up and hope develops. You acquire Marte, it would maybe make Gennett available for trade if he got it going.

 

I thought it was interesting in the above blurb that only Nelson and Lucroy are off the table. That means the Brewers will listen on Peralta.

 

I wonder what kind of haul he could net?

 

I also dont understand why you would trade Peralta but not Lucroy? I guess maybe because starting pitching could net a haul and a half.

 

Hopefully the crew does a full on Marlins type firesale. If so, the minor league system could be VERY VERY fun to watch over the next 2-3 years....

[SRB]

I also dont understand why you would trade Peralta but not Lucroy? I guess maybe because starting pitching could net a haul and a half.

 

Hopefully the crew does a full on Marlins type firesale. If so, the minor league system could be VERY VERY fun to watch over the next 2-3 years....

 

I interpreted that rival executive's comment as saying Lucroy is incredibly good (and cheap) so we won't want to trade him, and that Nelson has a lot of upside so we won't want to trade him. The negative implication is that Peralta is not all that untouchable, though as a positive it's a compliment for Nelson I guess.

[wildcat2237]

I also dont understand why you would trade Peralta but not Lucroy? I guess maybe because starting pitching could net a haul and a half.

 

Hopefully the crew does a full on Marlins type firesale. If so, the minor league system could be VERY VERY fun to watch over the next 2-3 years....

 

I interpreted that rival executive's comment as saying Lucroy is incredibly good (and cheap) so we won't want to trade him, and that Nelson has a lot of upside so we won't want to trade him. The negative implication is that Peralta is not all that untouchable, though as a positive it's a compliment for Nelson I guess.

 

I think I see it more along the lines of Peralta being an established major league starter who could help someone right away.

 

Nelson, however, has tons of potential but has been very up and down at the MLB level. Just like Peralta was his first 1.5 years at the MLB level.

 

I'd like to see Peralta net 5 or 6 good prospects, or one guy like Gallo from the Rangers.

[paul253]

I'm all for moving players when their value is highest. I actually think that's the ideal strategy. I don't Peralta's value is as high as it's going to be though. He's still under team control for what, four more years? Hang on to him this year hang onto him next year and I bet his value is higher than it is now. At worst you have a fairly inexpensive #3-#4 starter. If he improves though you can probably net at least two very good prospects in return.

[wildcat2237]

I'm all for moving players when their value is highest. I actually think that's the ideal strategy. I don't Peralta's value is as high as it's going to be though. He's still under team control for what, four more years? Hang on to him this year hang onto him next year and I bet his value is higher than it is now. At worst you have a fairly inexpensive #3-#4 starter. If he improves though you can probably net at least two very good prospects in return.

 

Billie Beane has made a living trading players at their peak value. You're probably right that he will have more value in 2 years.

 

However, it is also possible that he could get hurt and his value could plummet.

 

I would trade him for 2 reasons:

 

#1. If you are in full rebuilding mode why waste Peralta?

 

#2. Why wait to get prospects?

[SoupTown]

The problem we have is that I dont think our management have any plan. Are we punting 2015... well, not yet. Are we punting (full rebuild in 2016 and 2017)... well who knows until we have decided what to do with 2015... which we dont know and have no plan. We are in wait and see mode.

 

Note that Mark says he ran a spreadsheet taking the guys average MLB production to work out that we were a contenting team for 2015. ARAM he expects to return his career average. Same with Braun. Same with Lohse. Mark does not seem to have much understanding of how baseball players perform... even to the extent that most have peak years (that 26 to 29 year old range). So he is waiting for ARAM, Brauny, Lohse to go on a one or two month tear... as, of course, their end of year numbers MUST be their league average. Are we SURE this guy is a successful business man? Does he not buy business low and sell high. Why does he not think Apple and IBM and GE and FORD will do the exact same thing year after year?

 

So, before one knows what actions to put in motion, ones goals must be laid out. I think I even read about Lucroy, himself, wondering of he was a trade piece, since he is only here two more years.

 

My plan is is to punt 2015 and 2016. You flood the 25 man roster with as much young, possible talent as you can. And you see what sticks. And you hope in 2017 you have a couple of the oldies left (Lucroy, Braun, even Garza!) and a few youngsters that have blossomed (Clark, Rogers, Sardinas, Kneble, etc) and a few newbies that have killed it in the minors for a couple of years (Arcia, Coulter, Wang, etc) - and are rookie ready in 2017.

 

That is my plan.

 

And what the heck is this about HAVING to spend ALL MY MONEY ($105 mill) EVERY year. Cant we be cheap for 2015 and 2016, then back to the $105 mill in 2017, then in 2018 and 2019 spend like $130 mill because we saved $30 mill year in 15/16.

 

I just do not get the NON PLANNING and ROSE COLOURED GLASSES our management do and wear.

[splitterpfj]

SoupTown, that was an impressive rant. I heard "silent rage of the common man", bordering on, "righteous indignation"...very nice.

 

I think the boss was caught by surprise by the humiliation that was April. I think they had a plan, but have now been forced to very seriously consider a change of course, reaching well beyond this season. It's only the beginning of May, there's time for the guys to recalibrate and proceed, hang in there.

[SoupTown]

splitter, the sadness is this: their plan was all the guys they signed would have average career years and they would be contenders

 

My plan is to jump from super model to super model - and have each of them pay me a few million because after I have decided their looks and nocturnal performance (heck, even daylight performance) is not satisfying to me. And they must pay for not being what I desired. Is my plan realistic? Was Doug's (no holes in this team) and Mark's (everybody will do career norm even though they are old and/or untested) and RRR's (I like this team, I really like it) plan realistic.

[pacopete4]

splitter, the sadness is this: their plan was all the guys they signed would have average career years and they would be contenders

 

My plan is to jump from super model to super model - and have each of them pay me a few million because after I have decided their looks and nocturnal performance (heck, even daylight performance) is not satisfying to me. And they must pay for not being what I desired. Is my plan realistic? Was Doug's (no holes in this team) and Mark's (everybody will do career norm even though they are old and/or untested) and RRR's (I like this team, I really like it) plan realistic.

 

 

While I think your analogy is really dumb, and I mean no disrespect, it is dumb. There plan was to field the best team they could. The players still have to play and perform. This season falls squarely on those players not playing to their abilities. There is no reason to think that this team could not compete for a playoff spot if they play to their abilities. Will they? Doesn't seem that way. If you "predicted" this start for the Brewers it is because you are a negative nancy boy who will always see faults in the roster no matter how good it is. I'm not sure why any Brewer fan would be upset at signing guys hoping they would play to their "career norms" and actually be contenders. People forget quick how big of a joke this franchise really is and the recent success does not go back very far.

[monty57]

I'm not sure why any Brewer fan would be upset at signing guys hoping they would play to their "career norms"

 

Age is a big factor here. Ramirez and Lohse are well past the stage where most players are retired. Ramirez has obviously been declining for a few years, and while I have been amazed at how well Lohse has held back age, I will not be surprised if he has indeed "hit the cliff," and is a worse pitcher today than he was a year ago. It happens to everyone. Both of these guys were expected to play huge roles (cleanup hitter and #1 starter).

 

Meanwhile, there are a lot of unheralded young players and average-ish veterans. Most players have played worse than most reasonable people would have expected, but this is a very streaky team, so it's not overly surprising that they would start out as ice cold this year as they were red hot a year ago. I've said, and continue to believe that if no changes are made, they will probably end up around where they have ended up the past few seasons, which is somewhere around .500 - probably a little below .500 with this cold start vs a little above .500 with last year's hot start.

 

People forget quick how big of a joke this franchise really is and the recent success does not go back very far.

 

Unfortunately, I can't forget that. I also don't forget that the Packers and Badgers were jokes for most of my youth. Both of those teams got leaders in charge who wanted to build to be continually good, and not just to be good in a short window. I know people will say "you can't compare one sport to another," but I disagree. You can make comparisons between sports, or to successful businesses, or a successful marriage, or anything successful for an extended period. It's about planning for long-term success vs looking for immediate gratification. If you plan for long-term success, there will be ups and downs, but you should see more sustained success. If you look for immediate gratification, there are very few areas in life where you will be successful for more than a short period.

 

I've never wanted the franchise to revert to "joke" status, but it has been painfully obvious for a few years that if we continued on the path we were taking, we would soon be a "joke" once more. I believe it could have been averted, but everyone was happy with immediate gratification, and anyone who mentioned "the future" was not really taken too seriously. It's kind of the "new" American way.

 

Now we're here, and our two paths seem to be either trade 'em all and hope to be relevant again in a few years, or trade a few of 'em and sign some vets this offseason to continue to slap lipstick on the pig. I didn't want to get to the point where a complete tear down-style rebuild was necessary, but it sure looks like our best hope now. At least it's understandable, so the most likely way we become a "joke" is if we continue to run our team like the Cubs under Wrigley Corp, putting "name" players out there to sell tickets and maximize profit, remaining good enough to give fans hope, but not really good enough to have a real shot at winning it all. Because the team was so putrid in the late Selig years, becoming the Cubs seems like a good option, and that's really, really sad.

[reillymcshane]

The players still have to play and perform. This season falls squarely on those players not playing to their abilities. There is no reason to think that this team could not compete for a playoff spot if they play to their abilities.

I think there were numerous reasons they weren't going to compete. As has often been the case the last few years, this was a team that required a lot to go right to be contenders. I apologize for saying this again, but stuff happens - good and bad - usually in equal measure. For each pleasant surprise, you have something bad happen. To just assume most everything will go right is a poor way to plan. It doesn't mean it can't happen, it's just not likely.

 

If you "predicted" this start for the Brewers it is because you are a negative nancy boy who will always see faults in the roster no matter how good it is.

That's kind of mean, but 'negative nancy boy' is creative. Kudos.

 

I'm not sure why any Brewer fan would be upset at signing guys hoping they would play to their "career norms" and actually be contenders.

 

I think the 'career norms' thing is in reference to expecting aging players, or players who have struggled with injuries, to come back with their career norms when it's unlikely. Thus, having A-Ram hit 20+HR and bat .285 is probably unrealistic.

[pacopete4]

I'm not sure why any Brewer fan would be upset at signing guys hoping they would play to their "career norms" and actually be contenders.

 

I think the 'career norms' thing is in reference to expecting aging players, or players who have struggled with injuries, to come back with their career norms when it's unlikely. Thus, having A-Ram hit 20+HR and bat .285 is probably unrealistic.

 

 

Maybe he won't hit 20+ HR's because he really isn't that type of power hitter but I bet he hits close to .285 and around .800 ops which is pretty solid from a 3B. He was the best option to have on our team this year. It's not like 3B's with .900 ops are just laying around waiting to jump on the Brewers roster. People always seem to think things are an easy fix but that is so far from reality. This isn't a video game. You don't just get to trade away players and get a treasures haul in return. The Brewers just don't get to sign every good free agent either. I for one am sure glad we have the change to have a HOF player at 3B instead of that rag arm Rogers over there for a year.

[TooLiveBrew]

splitter, the sadness is this: their plan was all the guys they signed would have average career years and they would be contenders

 

My plan is to jump from super model to super model - and have each of them pay me a few million because after I have decided their looks and nocturnal performance (heck, even daylight performance) is not satisfying to me. And they must pay for not being what I desired. Is my plan realistic? Was Doug's (no holes in this team) and Mark's (everybody will do career norm even though they are old and/or untested) and RRR's (I like this team, I really like it) plan realistic.

 

 

While I think your analogy is really dumb, and I mean no disrespect, it is dumb. There plan was to field the best team they could. The players still have to play and perform. This season falls squarely on those players not playing to their abilities. There is no reason to think that this team could not compete for a playoff spot if they play to their abilities. Will they? Doesn't seem that way. If you "predicted" this start for the Brewers it is because you are a negative nancy boy who will always see faults in the roster no matter how good it is. I'm not sure why any Brewer fan would be upset at signing guys hoping they would play to their "career norms" and actually be contenders. People forget quick how big of a joke this franchise really is and the recent success does not go back very far.

This post flies in the face of the environment BrewerFan fosters. Don't keep posting name-calling & denigrating stuff -- it's not welcome here.

 

Disagree, but don't be a jerk.

[And That]

it is dumb. There plan

Indeed.