Trade with the Mets

[SoCalBrewfan]

Segura is a hard guy to value. He's still approaching his peak, and has shown that he can be an adequate major league player at a difficult position to fill, with 3 years control after 2015. There have been enough flashes that you think he could still break out and be better than average...but enough track record that you think he never will be much more than he is now. Thing is, what he is now has value; there are contending teams with holes at short or 2b right now, eg LAD or KC or NYY, and you have a pretty good sense of Segura's floor. He's a patch for this year who will fill a hole and gives you options down the road, either as a starter or a utility guy....he's doing more or less what Andrus or Castro are doing for a small fraction of the price.

 

I do feel like the Brewers value him more than other teams, and there are only a few teams in the mix for an infielder right now. For that reason I'd be a bit surprised if he is traded for scraps this deadline; I think the Brewers will either get something fairly juicy or hold on to him and look to move him this offseason.

[SRB]

No he is not worth that much but he is definitely worth at least one 50-60 ranked prospect plus another 90-100 ranked prospect.

 

I think you could've made this argument after 2013. I don't think you can anymore. The first half of 2013 is looking like the fluke. I think you could maybe get a top 90-100 guy and then a rookie ball wildcard type prospect as sweetener but if Segura is traded I think you're going to be incredibly disappointed with the return if you're expecting two top 100 prospects for him.

 

Then he shouldn't be traded. Loads of players breakout after age 25, that's why he still has tremendous upside (that he flashes on occasion). Even when Arcia is ready, we still have a substantial hole at 2B (unless they trust Sardinas enough), so Segura is not value-less to us.

[JohnBriggs12]

"we still have a substantial hole at 2b"?

 

Really? A guy who just turned 25 with a .288/.321/.437 slash line in over 800 major league ABs is a substantial hole?

[MrTPlush]

Gennett is no franchise player, but he is a decent role player. You can't have all stars everywhere. To say he is a substantial hole is far from the truth.

 

Also Segura has tremendous upside? I would love to see where you have seen that. I haven't seen that since early 2013 and it was not sustainable. If someone offers a decent prospect or two the Brewers should go laughing all the way to the bank.

[logan82]

"we still have a substantial hole at 2b"?

 

Really? A guy who just turned 25 with a .288/.321/.437 slash line in over 800 major league ABs is a substantial hole?

It is when a player has faced a platoon advantage 88% of the time. He is a part time player at best.

[MrTPlush]

"we still have a substantial hole at 2b"?

 

Really? A guy who just turned 25 with a .288/.321/.437 slash line in over 800 major league ABs is a substantial hole?

It is when a player has faced a platoon advantage 88% of the time. He is a part time player at best.

 

I think he is pretty average all things considered. And this is coming from someone who really isn't a big Gennett fan. He really isn't a hole. Something you would love to improve if you could though. You gotta remember 2B is a pretty weak MLB position.

[MrTPlush]

I have to laugh. Jean Segura apparently has "tremendous value" at 25, but Scooter Gennett is a part time player at best at 25.

 

When was Segura so highly touted? When we traded for him he was just inside the Top 50 rankings. While not bad that isn't anything super special. Segura is never going to be a special player. He lacks power and doesn't have the OBP skills to make up for it. I just fail to see where he has room for improvement. He looks exactly the same as he did from day one.

[SRB]

I have to laugh. Jean Segura apparently has "tremendous value" at 25, but Scooter Gennett is a part time player at best at 25.

 

When was Segura so highly touted? When we traded for him he was just inside the Top 50 rankings. While not bad that isn't anything super special. Segura is never going to be a special player. He lacks power and doesn't have the OBP skills to make up for it. I just fail to see where he has room for improvement. He looks exactly the same as he did from day one.

 

I remember the same negativity directed at Carlos Gomez for many years.

[jerichoholicninja]

I have to laugh. Jean Segura apparently has "tremendous value" at 25, but Scooter Gennett is a part time player at best at 25.

 

When was Segura so highly touted? When we traded for him he was just inside the Top 50 rankings. While not bad that isn't anything super special. Segura is never going to be a special player. He lacks power and doesn't have the OBP skills to make up for it. I just fail to see where he has room for improvement. He looks exactly the same as he did from day one.

 

Exactly. I was a staunch Scooter hater at the beginning but have come around somewhat. Sure, he can't hit lefties, but that's a better problem than can't hit righties. This year their numbers are pretty identical but career-wise, Scooter has 81 OPS points on Segura. Segura's "great" 2013 still falls short of Scooter's career numbers.

[Boomer5]

Segura is a 25 year old SS who at worst is a cheap starter and at best has "upside". I don't really look at OPS when I'm considering a SS anyhow.

 

Factor in position, years of control, and cost, and he has significant value. He won't get a top 10 of course, but why anyone would trade a starting SS who doesn't cost much for less than a top 50 is beyond me.

 

I wouldn't trade him unless the Mets are begging.

[MrTPlush]

We can slice this any way you prefer, but all things considered Segura still ranks near the bottom of all MLB SS starters. What contending team wants to give up a Top 50 prospect(possible game changer type player) for a SS that is likely a downgrade or no improvement? Why gamble on a player that has shown nothing in 3.5 years at the MLB level? I think I would just gamble on my Top 50 prospect and keep my current SS who is probably just as good.

[SRB]

We can slice this any way you prefer, but all things considered Segura still ranks near the bottom of all MLB SS starters. What contending team wants to give up a Top 50 prospect(possible game changer type player) for a SS that is likely a downgrade or no improvement? Why gamble on a player that has shown nothing in 3.5 years at the MLB level? I think I would just gamble on my Top 50 prospect and keep my current SS who is probably just as good.

 

Fair enough, but if that's the case then Melvin should cross you (or the Mets) off his list of trade possibilities, not lower the asking price for Segura.

[MrTPlush]

We can slice this any way you prefer, but all things considered Segura still ranks near the bottom of all MLB SS starters. What contending team wants to give up a Top 50 prospect(possible game changer type player) for a SS that is likely a downgrade or no improvement? Why gamble on a player that has shown nothing in 3.5 years at the MLB level? I think I would just gamble on my Top 50 prospect and keep my current SS who is probably just as good.

 

Fair enough, but if that's the case then Melvin should cross you (or the Mets) off his list of trade possibilities, not lower the asking price for Segura.

 

To be fair we don't really know what the true asking price is. If I had to guess they are probably looking for at least one Top 100 prospect(or something similar in value in the lower minors).

 

The Mets are likely the best fit mid season. They are the type of team that would trade for a not so clear improvement now with their mind really on the future. A team really looking to make a push this year won't have as much interest. They probably are looking for a clear upgrade.

[logan82]

Segura is a full time player. Comparing batting lines between a player who mostly plays with a platoon advantage to one who plays against everyone is useless. Of course the platoon guy should hit much better.

[jerichoholicninja]

Segura is a full time player. Comparing batting lines between a player who mostly plays with a platoon advantage to one who plays against everyone is useless. Of course the platoon guy should hit much better.

 

Segura's career OPS vs LHP (when having the platoon advantage):

.670

 

It's actually lower than his overall career number and is still much lower than Scooter's career OPS even with Scooter's anemic AB's against LHP.

[SRB]

Segura is a full time player. Comparing batting lines between a player who mostly plays with a platoon advantage to one who plays against everyone is useless. Of course the platoon guy should hit much better.

 

Segura's career OPS vs LHP (when having the platoon advantage):

.670

 

It's actually lower than his overall career number and is still much lower than Scooter's career OPS even with Scooter's anemic AB's against LHP.

 

Yes, but that's ignoring what's actually the key stat when talking about a platoon vs. everyday player:

 

Segura career vs RHP = .679 OPS

Gennett career vs LHP = .302 OPS

[trwi7]

Yes, but that's ignoring what's actually the key stat when talking about a platoon vs. everyday player:

 

Segura career vs RHP = .679 OPS

Gennett career vs LHP = .302 OPS

 

And lefties make up what, 15% of major league pitchers? I'd much rather have a left handed bat that can hit righties but is dreadful against lefties than a right handed bat that can't really hit either.

[And That]

And lefties make up what, 15% of major league pitchers?

By my very quick count, of the 97 starting pitchers who currently qualify for ERA leaderboards, 23 are lefties. Not going to count relievers, but managers are so fond of bringing in LHP to face LHB late in the game, I wouldn't discount Gennett's inability to hit lefties so much.

 

Edit: Actually, just looking at guys who play everyday regardless of what hand the opposing pitcher throws with, it seems that LHPs account for just about 25% of all ABs.

[trwi7]

And lefties make up what, 15% of major league pitchers?

By my very quick count, of the 97 starting pitchers who currently qualify for ERA leaderboards, 23 are lefties. Not going to count relievers, but managers are so fond of bringing in LHP to face LHB late in the game, I wouldn't discount Gennett's inability to hit lefties so much.

 

Edit: Actually, just looking at guys who play everyday regardless of what hand the opposing pitcher throws with, it seems that LHPs account for just about 25% of all ABs.

 

I'm not discounting it. I'm not really a fan of Gennett anyways. Just saying that if I could get solid production 75% of the time that would be better than getting production maybe 25% of the time.

[And That]

Looking at it some more, it seems that LHBs who play everyday face LHPs closer to 30-35% of the time. Interesting.

[monty57]

Looking at it some more, it seems that LHBs who play everyday face LHPs closer to 30-35% of the time. Interesting.

 

The LOOGY effect

[BrewBalls]

Would the Mets be willing to trade Noah Syndergaard, Dominic Smith and Jhoan Urena for Gomez, Segura and Parra? We could throw in enough cash to cover Parra's remaining salary if needed to sweeten the pot. This give us an ace caliber pitcher to pair with Peralta and Nelson and two corner infiled prospects who should be able to contribute by 2017.

[SRB]

Would the Mets be willing to trade Noah Syndergaard, Dominic Smith and Jhoan Urena for Gomez, Segura and Parra? We could throw in enough cash to cover Parra's remaining salary if needed to sweeten the pot. This give us an ace caliber pitcher to pair with Peralta and Nelson and two corner infiled prospects who should be able to contribute by 2017.

 

I wouldn't do that trade if I were the Brewers. Maybe just for Gomez that return is fair.

[Bnowell4evr]

CF Carlos Gomez & 3B Aramis Ramirez

 

for

 

RHP Zack Wheeler

RHP Michael Fulmer

OF Brandon Nimmo

1 of 1B Dominic Smith / SS Gavin Cecchini / 3B Jhoan Urena

[TheCrew07]

People do realize that an injured MLB player cannot be a PTBNL correct? I have no problem with idea of acquiring Wheeler but it would have to be an off season move.