Trade with the Mets

[wildcat2237]

Today's Musing on a Brewers-Mets Trade.

 

A random blogger here, http://www.bloggingmets.com/26934/how-ryan-braun-to-mets-could-work/ ... suggests a trade of Ryan Braun for Niese, Cuddyer, Montero, and Pawlecki.

 

 

No thanks.

[trwi7]

I get that we would most likely have to eat money if we're trading Braun but if we're eating nearly 30% of his remaining contract (which is what taking back Niese and Cuddyer would mean) I would definitely be looking for something better than Montero and Plawecki in return.

[reillymcshane]

I'm not confident that any team would really want Braun (contract, most hated man in baseball after A-Rod, injury history, pr nightmare). But the Mets could really use a big bat. Braun would fit them really well.

 

I don't see anyone wanting Ryan for so many reasons, but maybe I'm too pessimistic. I suppose it only takes one team to make a deal in a moment of weakness.

 

I should note that Braun's contract might not be that huge of a deal - a big consideration for a team like the Mets who seem to be very money conscious.

 

Braun's already been paid his $10M signing bonus. That leaves $95M - or $19M a year on average. However, he has deferred payments totally $18M that run for 10 years (I believe starting around 2023). Thus, his salary is only $15M a year from 2016-20 (I think there's a $5M opt out for the following season).

 

If the team does take on $25-30M in salaries, such as Neise and Cuddyer, that makes the payouts a lot less formidable for the Mets. They'd actually save money in 2015 and 2016 by such a swap. In the long run, they only pay Braun $14-15M a year - even with the deferred payments (which are interest free).

[MrTPlush]

I don't think anyone knows how bad the PR will be. I see fans(most notably Mets fans) that are jumping on this thought of having Braun on their team. On the other hand if a team trades for him and he struggles for whatever reason fans could bring out the torches.

 

I think the PR fear comes from him not producing...if he produces I don't think anyone cares.

[brewcrewdue80]

Today's Musing on a Brewers-Mets Trade.

 

A random blogger here, http://www.bloggingmets.com/26934/how-ryan-braun-to-mets-could-work/ ... suggests a trade of Ryan Braun for Niese, Cuddyer, Montero, and Pawlecki.

 

 

No thanks.

 

See the Blogger and about every single non Brewer fan believes that Braun's Salary will be 20mil starting next season. And not the actual 16mil it will be. So they come up with these payroll ideas to get him to 14-15mil in pay by saying Brewers take Granderson or Cuddyer plus Niese to offset the massive pay of Braun's.

 

What Braun's extension should really read is as: 15years-95mil and not 5years 95mil.

 

I highly doubt a QO player will be below 16mil this next offseason. Braun isn't being paid as much as a QO will cost a team. And it will only get higher.

Based on what Braun's done this year, you can 100% bet the Brewers and all teams would give him a QO after 2015. And you can probably plan that he would have gotten a 4yr 72-80mil deal. So I just don't get how he's not worth his contract, it has to be because of the PEDs drama in most people's minds. But a GM? Who's staring at a .260+ 30+HR and 100+RBI FA? Yeah 18-20mil in FA dollars for 4 years isn't going to be an obstacle.

 

I just love how the Mets Homers expect to dump their worthless junk on the team to acquire what is the Brewers 3rd best trade piece and only because Gomez/Lucroy are on such cheap deals while prime year aged.

[brewmann04]

Mets fans really think other teams are stupid and if they are not giving up their pitching prospects no need to carry on talks

[MrTPlush]

I get that we would most likely have to eat money if we're trading Braun but if we're eating nearly 30% of his remaining contract (which is what taking back Niese and Cuddyer would mean) I would definitely be looking for something better than Montero and Plawecki in return.

 

Maybe if the Mets are the whole contract a deal like that might work, but making him less than $15mil a year average I want something nice. That would make the contract pretty nice. Though PR baggage and injured thumb need to be taken into consideration.

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't think anyone knows how bad the PR will be. I see fans(most notably Mets fans) that are jumping on this thought of having Braun on their team. On the other hand if a team trades for him and he struggles for whatever reason fans could bring out the torches.

 

I think the PR fear comes from him not producing...if he produces I don't think anyone cares.

 

Pretty much. No matter what team Braun is traded to (if he's traded), he's going to get a big ovation for his first home at bat. Even St. Louis. I don't see any fan base having a negative reaction to their team acquiring Braun in the middle of the season for a playoff push.

[NievesNoNO]

I don't think anyone knows how bad the PR will be. I see fans(most notably Mets fans) that are jumping on this thought of having Braun on their team. On the other hand if a team trades for him and he struggles for whatever reason fans could bring out the torches.

 

I think the PR fear comes from him not producing...if he produces I don't think anyone cares.

 

Pretty much. No matter what team Braun is traded to (if he's traded), he's going to get a big ovation for his first home at bat. Even St. Louis. I don't see any fan base having a negative reaction to their team acquiring Braun in the middle of the season for a playoff push.

 

I agree. The PR risk is being overstated. The dollar risk associated with the contract that's really the only risk, albeit a very legitimate one. The blogger had one thing correct. He's better than any bat the Mets have right now and would be a big acquisition for them or any other contending team. I think there would be a few teams willing to part with something sizable for his services if he's available. If I'm Doug, I tell them Matz or Wheeler and they take the whole contract (non deferred portion) and we'll call it a deal.

[brewmann04]

david Wright due back near the All Star Game so forget AR going there.

[reillymcshane]

I don't think anyone knows how bad the PR will be. I see fans(most notably Mets fans) that are jumping on this thought of having Braun on their team. On the other hand if a team trades for him and he struggles for whatever reason fans could bring out the torches.

 

I think the PR fear comes from him not producing...if he produces I don't think anyone cares.

 

Pretty much. No matter what team Braun is traded to (if he's traded), he's going to get a big ovation for his first home at bat. Even St. Louis. I don't see any fan base having a negative reaction to their team acquiring Braun in the middle of the season for a playoff push.

If I'm Doug, I tell them Matz or Wheeler and they take the whole contract (non deferred portion) and we'll call it a deal.

Pass on Wheeler. Coming off TJ surgery, plus you'd only control him for 3-4 years. Mats you'd get for at least six.

[brewcrewdue80]

Agreed on Wheeler. I think his ceiling was never so much a TOR type as he was going to be a solid #3. Braun to me requires a Syndergaard or Matz headliner or there are no trade offers worth the while. Mets fans/bloggers have it figured out they will field a Rotation of Harvey, Degrom, Syndergaard, Matz, and Wheeler so any other SP prospect is worth offering in trade. The Mets are like the Cubs in the near future. Just on opposite equations. Why don't these teams get it over with already and trade Syndergaard for Russell? Since Matz's hype is he has more upside than Syndergaard suddenly? And the Mets need their franchise SS bat.

 

With the Wright news, ARam would seem a mute trade piece to them. Mets are just going to sit on their SP 5 of the future and suck at batting going forward. Maybe Wright's bat with TDA's bat addition again will be enough Offense under that Rotation.

 

Wright is likely making the team hold back on making an offensive upgrade trade until he's seen action again. He'll for sure see games in rehab in the minors before the AS break and during to give them an idea, and at which point they can make a decision if they need to make a move or not.

 

Gomez/Braun have become the most likely trade candidates for the Mets to pick up suddenly over Segura/ARam. And they aren't all that likely even a consideration under the costs.

[WV Brew]

Mets have just brought up Akeel Morris from A+ to bolster their bullpen. Maybe K-Rod would be a better trade for them. You might get one of their lesser pitching prospects just because, as mentioned above, they are well stocked with starters right now.

[NievesNoNO]

....they will field a Rotation of Harvey, Degrom, Syndergaard, Matz, and Wheeler.... .

 

For whatever reason, I'm sure I must have seen it or at least thought it, but when I see those names all listed that's freaking awesome! Even as an opposing fan.... just as a baseball fan that's pretty incredible. If that group stays healthy, (always a big if) that could end up being one of the better rotations in the game over the last decade or two.

[TheCrew07]

I'd absolutely take Wheeler back in a trade, he's the kind of guy you can flip before FA and bring back some serious prospects or try to extend into his early 30s. We need to start with top of the rotation talent that we control for more than 2 years some place, why not with him? He has 4 years of team control remaining, once you have pitching, you can keep cycling it back on itself if you play your cards right, somewhat taking the farm system out of the mix. However, we have to get there first... The only home grown player in the Rays rotation is Alex Colome. In fact every pitcher that's started a game for them this season other than Colome was acquired via trade.

 

I understand the years of control argument.. but any of the top Mets' pitchers are better than our best. If Melvin was offered Wheeler and walked away from whatever deal that may be I'd be so lived I'd actually drive down to Miller Park, find him, and punch him square in the face, maybe Mark A. too. Someone would have to cover my LR duties for me while I was in jail but it would be worth it.

[Boomer5]

I don't think anyone knows how bad the PR will be. I see fans(most notably Mets fans) that are jumping on this thought of having Braun on their team. On the other hand if a team trades for him and he struggles for whatever reason fans could bring out the torches.

 

I think the PR fear comes from him not producing...if he produces I don't think anyone cares.

 

Pretty much. No matter what team Braun is traded to (if he's traded), he's going to get a big ovation for his first home at bat. Even St. Louis. I don't see any fan base having a negative reaction to their team acquiring Braun in the middle of the season for a playoff push.

 

I am no Braun fan anymore but I agree completely. Once he gets in the batters box for another team, he will be welcomed by the fan base.

 

He is worth a lot more to other teams than he is to us. His contract is bad for Milwaukee, but if he is a 850 its not bad for a big market team.

 

Its too bad because he is back to sucking again, I had held out hope his May would propel a team like the Mets into giving us a decent package for him. Oh well.

[igor67]

A run of the mill June is not going to substantially alter Braun's trade value. The May hot streak certainly did because it answered the short term questions about the thumb. More broadly trading Braun now goes against Melvin's typical pattern and years of public comments. He believes bats get more value in the offseason, while pitching gets inflated at the deadline. Now it is reasonably clear based on the number of other atypical moves this year that the team is serious about getting younger. That does not mean it happens over night, that does not mean DFA every veteran because their all deadweight (correct no one has suggested that, but they have come quite close). We'll see Melvin be patient looking for some kind of real value. And unlike Cole Hamels we have a pretty strong incentive to wait and see if a lot of guys restore value. Aramis, Lohse, and Garza are unlikely to bring a big return, but until they are taking spots that would be better used acclimating younger players let them play and realize that we have until the waiver deadline at the end of August to hopefully get some value. K-rod seems like the best bet to yield something respectable by the real trade deadline, and maybe if were lucky the right team persuades Melvin to deal Gomez or Segura now as well, but in reality Segura stays for awhile and Gomez gets moved in the offseason. Next year we probably play for another top 5 pick, and can evaluate at that point how some other guys fit into the broader picture. Developing guys is too up and down a process to predict years in advance precisely which year is when they start to jell (see Astros).

[bill hAll Star]

If the Brewers were in a winning window, I would not call Braun's contract "bad for Milwaukee." It's still relatively affordable for a smaller market (some veteran inflation added), but the problem is that his 3 remaining "good" years out of the 5-6 he has left on his contract are going to be spent on a team that is either rebuilding or continuing to smolder in a fire of aging veterans.

[Boomer5]

If the Brewers were in a winning window, I would not call Braun's contract "bad for Milwaukee." It's still relatively affordable for a smaller market (some veteran inflation added), but the problem is that his 3 remaining "good" years out of the 5-6 he has left on his contract are going to be spent on a team that is either rebuilding or continuing to smolder in a fire of aging veterans.

 

If they were a good team that was drawing big and Braun was a marketing draw then it was a good contract when that was the case. Since neither is the case, we currently have a decent but not great LF playing RF who will cost us a ton of money while the team fights for top 5 draft picks the next 2-3 years. After that, he will be replacement level but making good money.

[bill hAll Star]

The point of contention I keep having is "ton of money" - which, yes, it is in real life terms, but Braun is probably worth $10-15 million/year in baseball economy money. You have to overpay for top-flight players. There are a lot of players the Brewers have/had that have zero value and are costing them $5+ million/year. Braun's contract for the next 3 years is not a hindrance on the payroll if they want to actively compete.

 

If one had the choice of "Braun at $15-20 million or no Braun" if they had the choice to cut anyone they wanted and wash their hands of the contract...I would keep Braun at that price if you're in a competitive window. I'd probably have cut Broxton, Lohse, Aramis, maybe Garza.

[TheCrew07]

If the Brewers were in a winning window...

 

That's probably the crux of the entire debate over the last 9 years.

 

Those who believe in the window strategy are generally slow to accept that it's closed until it's too late, every year is a year to go for it, unless they are unlucky, then it's hold course and repeat the following season. This is the perpetual "inevitable" rise and fall of professional sports franchises, they play for a window. The problem is that playing for the window does nothing but actually shorten the time frame the team can actually be competitive in since the team becomes old, expensive, and unproductive. The Brewers window was closing by 2008 (never enough young pitching) and closed in 2012 but many fans and management still believed the team could compete for a playoff spot with a little luck and veteran roster shuffling. It was the same for the Cubs before their collapse and the Reds now.

 

I haven't prescribed to the window strategy for a very long time, seems like forever, though in truth I didn't abandon that philosophy until 2008. I think there is a better way where you are constantly building the foundation of your organization, which isn't attendance, or "veteranness", but talent. I'm not looking to squeeze every possible good year from a player before letting him go, I'm looking to get his peak and that's it, then move on. I believe in a robust talent base because while prospects do fail, there's no other foundation for Milwaukee to build a WS team on. Since we need young players, and young players are unpredictable, we need greater numbers. It's ridiculous to blame the Brewer's pitching issues on Manny Parra, Mark Rogers, and Mike Jones. When you only have 1 or 2 legitimate pitching prospects at a time the fault isn't with the players, it's with the strategy. All 3 of those guys required surgery, and I was surprised as anyone that Parra was ultimately a dud, but when we only get 2 guys with talent through the system to MLB we shouldn't be surprised when 1 fails and we shouldn't be surprised when young pitchers get injured, that's part of the game. The organization never accounted for either, we've always just had 1 guy at a time spaced years apart... Sheets, Neugy, Jones, Gallardo, Parra, Peralta...

 

We've never had the numbers to sustain a rotation from the pitching side, and we still don't have a good number of legitimate impact pitching prospects in the minors. We had a fair number of positional prospects but blew through them all acquiring short term MLB solutions. I'm not comfortable being 1 deep at a position, I'd like to be at least 2 deep throughout the organization but the Brewers are basically 0 deep at many positions, that's the problem. Right now SS is the only position with true depth, and it's one of the best positions to have depth at because SS can become 3B, 2B, or CF, but we lack C, corner IF and OF, and pitching. We can't just have a capable MLB roster with nothing behind it, we need options to cover unexpected injuries, and by unexpected I mean that we don't know when injuries are going to occur and to whom, the only certainty is that we know injuries will occur over the course of a season and players become more brittle as they age.

 

All these injuries and ineffectiveness isn't bad luck, nor it is random, it's a reflection of the roster construction, the same as it was when the Brewers won that silly award for having the least DL time, they also had one of the youngest teams in the majors at that time. However causality was assigned to the training staff when in truth they hadn't changed or done anything other than the usual, they just had a young, healthy roster, which was approaching it's prime.

 

I think the most overlooked strategy in sports is when to cycle old talent away. For some reason veteran production is considered to be "proven" when the truth is as players age their stats are as a volatile as prospects, they are just getting paid a heck of a lot more to be inconsistent:

 

I give you Aramis Ramirez:

[pre]Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+

2012 34 MIL 149 630 570 92 171 50 3 27 105 44 82 .300 .360 .540 .901 136

2013 35 MIL 92 351 304 43 86 18 0 12 49 36 55 .283 .370 .461 .831 127

2014 36 MIL 133 531 494 47 141 23 1 15 66 21 75 .285 .330 .427 .757 107

2015 37 MIL 54 199 188 14 40 12 0 7 24 8 31 .213 .251 .388 .640 71

18 Yrs 2111 8669 7849 1069 2226 476 23 376 1366 610 1201 .284 .342 .494 .835 115[/pre]

 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/17/2015.

 

His OPS+ has done exactly what we should expect an aging players' to do, regress a little bit each year, that's how we end up playing players for what they did in the past, rather than what they are actually going to do for us. His games played have varied with his health, which was also to be expected. He was an above average player for a long time, had a great season in Milwaukee, but the end is nigh. It's not that the Brewers had someone to replace him, or that they picked up his option this year, it's not really even the money. It's that they had a real chance to unload him in 2012 as the window was truly closed to get a replacement plus extras and instead chose to pay him to decline and have spent the last 3 years trying to put square pegs into round holes to fill the organizational black hole at 3B.

 

That's the systemic issue with the organization... Signing Lohse and giving up a 1st round pick to achieve what? Hanging onto Ramirez why? Why offer a clearly declining Garza a 4 year contract? The pessimism comes from the fact that these same patterns have kept repeating themselves over and over through the years. The Brewers said after last season there would be changes, but what really changed other than Reynolds and some of the coaches were scapegoated? Is the team significantly better off in 2015? What has ever changed? The Brewers work in terms of absolutes... they are either buyers or sellers, but nothing in between, and every off season is about fixing the glaring weakness from the year before by acquiring players from outside the organization.

 

Simply put it's linear thinking, it's playing checkers when they've always needed to be playing chess instead. That's why Friedman was the best GM in baseball, he made very few linear moves. People can say the market dictated and forced him to be that way, there's probably some truth to that, but it doesn't change that he won more games, more consistently, than most everyone else, with a much lower payroll. It's not about spending money, it's about talent, and he's understood that better than most.

 

edit. Fixed an autocorrect typo and missed words.

[Boomer5]

I give you Aramis Ramirez:

Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+

2012 34 MIL 149 630 570 92 171 50 3 27 105 44 82 .300 .360 .540 .901 136

2013 35 MIL 92 351 304 43 86 18 0 12 49 36 55 .283 .370 .461 .831 127

2014 36 MIL 133 531 494 47 141 23 1 15 66 21 75 .285 .330 .427 .757 107

2015 37 MIL 54 199 188 14 40 12 0 7 24 8 31 .213 .251 .388 .640 71

 

Those are almost certainly Braun's last 4 years of his extension.

 

I agree completely that the window theory is dated, which is why the organization needs to INVEST in a world class farm system from top to bottom.

[Boomer5]

The point of contention I keep having is "ton of money" - which, yes, it is in real life terms, but Braun is probably worth $10-15 million/year in baseball economy money. You have to overpay for top-flight players. There are a lot of players the Brewers have/had that have zero value and are costing them $5+ million/year. Braun's contract for the next 3 years is not a hindrance on the payroll if they want to actively compete.

 

If one had the choice of "Braun at $15-20 million or no Braun" if they had the choice to cut anyone they wanted and wash their hands of the contract...I would keep Braun at that price if you're in a competitive window. I'd probably have cut Broxton, Lohse, Aramis, maybe Garza.

 

That statement is fair. Braun is currently better than the players you mentioned by a large margin.

 

I pick on Braun's deal because it was based on information that wasnt accurate and it is a commitment far beyond the other black holes you suggested.

 

Want to see the last 3 years of his extension? Look up Soriano and ARam's and Id suggest they will be very similar.

[bill hAll Star]

Sure, but I'm saying you'd take the last 2-3 years of his downfall if you were in a competitive window. That's the cost of business with big contracts.

 

Instead, you're just going to get those final 3 years sitting as a black hole after you rebuild.

[dlk9s]

Don't think we'll be able to pry away Matz any time soon:

 

http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/133449240/steven-matzs-debut-becomes-one-for-the-ages