Brewers NEW Core

[brewcrewdue80]

Biggest thing we need is a future ace for Gomez or Lucroy and we can't afford to miss. Hopefully get a great arm for both. I think if we can get two big arms to go with Jimmy and Wily, that is a good start.

 

Lucroy for Julio Urias.

 

I don't think a Zack Greinke type SP would net Julio Urias. I mean literally the kid isn't going to be traded. The Dodgers already have the one pitcher you'd consider trading him for in Kershaw.

 

He's the #1 Pitching prospect in baseball at the moment. I think you could offer Lucroy and Gomez for Crawford and Urias and the Dodgers are hanging up the phone.

[SRB]

Biggest thing we need is a future ace for Gomez or Lucroy and we can't afford to miss. Hopefully get a great arm for both. I think if we can get two big arms to go with Jimmy and Wily, that is a good start.

 

Lucroy for Julio Urias.

 

I don't think a Zack Greinke type SP would net Julio Urias. I mean literally the kid isn't going to be traded. The Dodgers already have the one pitcher you'd consider trading him for in Kershaw.

 

He's the #1 Pitching prospect in baseball at the moment. I think you could offer Lucroy and Gomez for Crawford and Urias and the Dodgers are hanging up the phone.

 

Lucroy is an MVP-caliber catcher who is under team control for 2.75 more seasons and will be paid peanuts (less than if he were arbitration eligible). I don't know if the Dodgers would trade Urias to win now, but the Brewers have every right to demand a top-10 prospect.

 

Lucroy catching Kershaw would be a beautiful thing. (Preferably embarrassing the Cardinals in the playoffs)

[dlk9s]

To me personally the untouchable core to build our future around is

 

Will Smith

Jermey Jeffress

Corey Knuebel

 

http://i.imgur.com/p45kN.gif

[Jenkins5]

So hard to see Dodgers giving him up but you never know, if, if they are making a push and Lucroy is back on All-Star MVP type track, could happen. Urias or Seager could possibly be had. Arm talents like Urias don't come often however.

[homer]

Looking on the bright side, if the Brewers did want to tear it all down and rebuild they have plenty of chips with which to deal.

[superfly]

I guess looking at the usual MA side of things though...Ramirez, Lohse, and I believe Brox off the books after the season...maybe sooner if we trade them. Sign a piece or two more and claim issues are "fixed" and we go for it yet again with this core while we still have Gomez cheap.

 

I think people are getting a little overzealous about a complete teardown...that isn't how things have worked here in recent times. I might still put the money on hope & signing pieces than ripping the roster apart, even though it's the right thing to do.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Brewers are in the situation they have been in not because they can't develop offensive talent cause they have. Issue is like you said, they miss so much on pitchers it's unreal. They simply can't develop them. Killed me to shallow losing Odorizzi, he may be the best pitcher he have had in our system in last decade.... Not saying much... Honestly, if we were to make a top 5 list over the past 15 years of pitchers developed by use it'd be

1) Sheets

2) Gallardo

 

Then...

Manny Parra? if we wouldn't have lost his head and confidence he could have been great, however, he never overcame the mental aspect.

5yr 172g/74gs 513ip 26-33 5.12era/4.34fip

 

Zack Braddock- could never master mental aspect as well however, sadly being bi-polar makes that difficult.

2yrs 71g 51ip 1-3 4.41era/ 3.51 fip 30/59

 

Carlos Villanueva

5yrs 240g 27gs 425ip 20-24 4.34 era/4.43 fip 151bb/381k

 

Dana Eveland

36 games 5 starts 1-4 in 59.1ip 6.98 era /4.56 fip 33bb/55k

 

Jorge De la Rosa

3yrs 61g/8gs 95.1ip 6.23era/4.64fip 74bb/78k

 

Ben Hendrickson

2yrs 10g/9gs 58.1 ip 1-10 7.41 ip/4.83fip 29bb/37k

 

Nick Neugebauer

2 yrs 14gs 61.1ip 4.99era/ 5.86fip 50bb/58k

 

Then Peralta, Jeffress, Nelson, Fiers

Ugh that's an ugly list. Can't win in baseball without pitching. This team had a very talented offense that was always having to overcome the lack of pitching. IMO Brewers win the World Series in 2011 if the pitching staff hadn't fallen apart. Since then the team has sucked because the rotation wasn't good enough and now the once fearsome offense stinks. I hope the next version of the Brewers is centered around great pitching. The Giants have shown you can succeed with an average offense as long as your pitching kicks ass.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

The only saving grace that I have in this organization is that they seem to have finally figured out that they need to draft for upside. Last year's draft was something else. Even picks like Stokes and Burkhalter were improvements over the typical college arm who profiles as a reliever at best but will most likely flame out in AA. And the signing of Lara was a good sign too. But other than that there is nothing. Until they actually move towards rebuilding, and that means trading some combo of Gomez/Lohse/Garza/Lucroy, I have no confidence anyone in this organization has the brains to get the ship turned in the right direction. Their track record is such that I just have zero confidence that they will do what's necessary.

 

Someone nailed it earlier when they said that the Brewer's team is just like Bucks from a few years ago. The Bucks finally decided to stop throwing out a veteran laden .500ish team and now they are a team that people are actually excited about. That is exactly what the Brewers need to do. Unfortunately in baseball in takes much much longer.

 

And that's why I don't think they'll do a total rebuild. Attanasio doesn't seem like the type of owner that is willing to sit through several mediocre seasons while waiting for prospects to develop. He has that Steinbrenner syndrome. Wants to compete no matter what. I think they might trade away 1 or 2 guys, but I doubt they'll trade away anyone important. He seems perfectly content to ride this wave until the very end.....and then sign another veteran ex-Cardinal pitcher and give away a draft pick

[ewitkows]

Peralta should be traded. At best you flip a few of these guys for minor leaguers who are 2-3 years away. Willy will be in his 2-3 year of arby and if he pans out will probably leave to join either a winning team or a team that over pays him.

[Invader3K]

I just hope Attanasio is finally realistic about where this team is. 4-16 record should be a wakeup call...but will it be? Or is he still hoping this team can "figure it out" and go on a 10 game winning streak in order to be somewhat relevant again this season?

[Outlander]

Wily Peralta could be part of the core but he is really struggling right now, I think he should be sent to the minors for about a month and a half.

[brewmann04]

I think the Brewers hopefully are active and move some of the roster players to get prospects but some guys that they can move will be Fa so not sure what they can get for them.

[tmwiese55]

Man I'm sure glad some on here aren't running the team with the knee jerk reactions. Willy goes 17-11 with a 3.5 era at age 24. He has three bad starts in a row (when the whole teams is struggling) and ya'll say he sucks and either should be traded or sent to the minors. Come on people. It's this perpetual trade for the future attitude that I think gets overblown on here. Yea I wish he had more of an out pitch to get more strikeouts but you can pick apart a flaw in everyone. They'll still have control over him for what 4-5 more years, this is exactly the type of guy they should be holding onto and embracing. Instead you want to kick him while he's down and give up on him after 3 games. If he turns it around and finishes this year ok, prime candidate to buy out the arby years and one or two of FA for cheap just like they did with Gallardo and then trade him when he's 30 or 31.

[bill hAll Star]

Man I'm sure glad some on here aren't running the team with the knee jerk reactions. Willy goes 17-11 with a 3.5 era at age 24. He has three bad starts in a row (when the whole teams is struggling) and ya'll say he sucks and either should be traded or sent to the minors. Come on people. It's this perpetual trade for the future attitude that I think gets overblown on here. Yea I wish he had more of an out pitch to get more strikeouts but you can pick apart a flaw in everyone. They'll still have control over him for what 4-5 more years, this is exactly the type of guy they should be holding onto and embracing. Instead you want to kick him while he's down and give up on him after 3 games. If he turns it around and finishes this year ok, prime candidate to buy out the arby years and one or two of FA for cheap just like they did with Gallardo and then trade him when he's 30 or 31.

 

Wily isn't just starting to struggle.

 

He's had a FIP of 4.3 (2013), 4.1 (2014), and 4.4 (2015) in the majors. Last year he had "luck" to get that 3.5 ERA and the run support for the wins. For most of the year I believe he had the highest run support in the league.

 

He can't get lefties out. I mean, like lefty hitters are a combined Mike Trout against him. He's had TJ surgery once and still throws hard with a bunch of sliders...TJ #2 might not be too far around the corner. His WHIP combined in the minors was 1.4 and his ERA was 4 combined in the minors. An ace or even higher-end rotation guy should have better minors numbers than that.

 

I would imagine other teams also see these issues and his trade value isn't incredibly high. He's an OK piece that never has been a frontline starter prospect.

 

It's not overreaction. I like him and he can probably be an up-and-down #3/#4 as his career progresses...but this isn't just reaction from the first 3-4 starts of the season.

[tmwiese55]

So trade everyone who's not a cy young contender? Kid's 25 and throws 98, no way he'll get better with good coaching? Struggled the first two months of his rookie year and has been a good pitcher since, teams need numbers 2-4 starters too. Maybe you hold off on an extension for a year or two to hopefully see that improvement and to not see another injury but why would you give up on him, this is exactly the type of thing we need more of coming up the system.

[reillymcshane]

Come on people. It's this perpetual trade for the future attitude that I think gets overblown on here.

Plan for the future? Try and create an environment that builds consistent and long term success? Preposterous!

 

All we need is a some bird feces and spit instead.

[bill hAll Star]

So trade everyone who's not a cy young contender? Kid's 25 and throws 98, no way he'll get better with good coaching? Struggled the first two months of his rookie year and has been a good pitcher since, teams need numbers 2-4 starters too. Maybe you hold off on an extension for a year or two to hopefully see that improvement and to not see another injury but why would you give up on him, this is exactly the type of thing we need more of coming up the system.

 

I'm not strongly in favor of trading the guy but there are red flags as to whether he can be a #3ish starter. The division we're in has teams that have stacked themselves with a fair amount of lefty bats. I'm not sure he comes out of this year with good numbers.

 

If nobody is offering anything of substance, then yeah, I'd hold on to him and see if I could develop him further because some of the tools are there.

[tmwiese55]

Reilly, you now I'm not saying that but you just don't bring up your best pitching prospect in the last what 9 years and trade him after two seasons because he had 3 bad starts. I just feel people on here perpetually overvalue prospects, kind of an example on a recent thread was a discussion of what to do with the middle infield with possible 3 guys in the minors. Someone else made the point about waiting to at least see if these guys make the big leagues before trading the current guys. That's what I'm getting at. You have to field a major league team, can't just trade everyone over and over. So you trade him and of the guys you get back one of them comes up but can only throw 92, well trade him because he doesn't throw fast enough, he'll never be an ace. When does it stop.

[brewcrewdue80]

Man I'm sure glad some on here aren't running the team with the knee jerk reactions. Willy goes 17-11 with a 3.5 era at age 24. He has three bad starts in a row (when the whole teams is struggling) and ya'll say he sucks and either should be traded or sent to the minors. Come on people. It's this perpetual trade for the future attitude that I think gets overblown on here. Yea I wish he had more of an out pitch to get more strikeouts but you can pick apart a flaw in everyone. They'll still have control over him for what 4-5 more years, this is exactly the type of guy they should be holding onto and embracing. Instead you want to kick him while he's down and give up on him after 3 games. If he turns it around and finishes this year ok, prime candidate to buy out the arby years and one or two of FA for cheap just like they did with Gallardo and then trade him when he's 30 or 31.

 

Yes 17-11 and a 3.5ERA is a very nice looking stat. But the numbers for him behind the scenes aren't as glowing. His Fip, the low K/Rate, according to Fangraphs his velocity is down over 1MPH. His career ERA is 3.9.

 

The argument for trading him is on the notion that the Brewers won't be winning in '15, '16, and doubtfully in '17. Brewers control him through the 2018 season. So now you're staring at maybe the season Milw begins winning with the new core, he's going to be leaving for FA that season immediately after and the Brewers get nothing back in return except maybe a draft pick that does nothing to help the team for 3+seasons.

 

So, you make him available in trade. Argue on his 2nd half stats and Sept stats, plus his 30+Starts ability, and his upside and demand a very quality return in prospects. He's Proven, cheap and still under team control for 3 more seasons. I wonder if the Brewers could ask for Corey Seager in trade? They seem to have issues at pitching every year and Peralta's 30+ starts ability and being cheap, would be worthy to consider him.

 

The team solves it's 3b question of the future and he's likely a Core member to build around. And that's why you would do it.

 

 

Edit add: I can see arguments made for not trading Seager...Rollins/Uribe last years of contract. Dodgers have Guerrero to play 3b they'll need a SS(Seager's future for them) Send them Sardinas. Ask for Chris Anderson(SP type like Peralta) and Zach Lee. Lee becomes a Brewers back end starter immediately to fill in for Peralta(likely poorly but someone has to eat innings)

The club has solved its Middle infield by trading away Peralta's soon to rise cost in arb. They go out and extend Segura. Move him to 2b and Arcia plays SS. You have 2b, SS, 3B covered with hopefully a solid contributing SP in Anderson in another year.

[ewitkows]

It's not that willy's not a good pitcher, but by the time these prospects make it up (2-3 years) he'll be in the last year of his deal.

[MrTPlush]

Not really a point to trading Peralta/Nelson. They are average starters right now and no team is going to overpay for that type of player. Teams will just trade for a rental and then sign one in the off-season. Yah sure Peralta/Nelson are cheaper, but are you really going to give up top prospects for that alone?...maybe but I am not so sure. I can't recall many average pitchers being traded for top prospects with 3 years of control. It just doesn't seem like a typical practice. You might get a little better of a package...but I would rather hang on to them another season at the least see if they can build value with good seasons. Right now Nelson is unproven and Peralta has one good year.

[tmwiese55]

Well if you guys want to go completely into a Houston level teardown then so be it, that's fair. But there's nothing wrong with having some competent players on the team to win some games. It's good for young guys' moral to not just destroyed when they come up so you don't have such a losing mentality around. Me, I'd rather keep guys like Nelson/Peralta who are cheap and cost controlled. If they do well maybe throw them Gallardo type cheap extensions to keep them to age 30/31 and then look at trading before they hit FA then, they could be here when hopefully the next group of prospects come up in 2017-19. Well actually since Nelson came up late you probably don't even need to do a contract, arbitration will take him to that age.

 

You could argue this way as a good long term strategy too, it would spread prospects out a bit instead of trying to bring them all up in one rush like we did last time. Which for a small market will cause issues when deciding what to do with them later. Take the Cubs strategy bring so many guys at once, would work for a few years but we couldn't sustain because we don't have the payroll to sign them, they can sign then guys that actually pan out.

[reillymcshane]

Reilly, you now I'm not saying that but you just don't bring up your best pitching prospect in the last what 9 years and trade him after two seasons because he had 3 bad starts. I just feel people on here perpetually overvalue prospects, kind of an example on a recent thread was a discussion of what to do with the middle infield with possible 3 guys in the minors. Someone else made the point about waiting to at least see if these guys make the big leagues before trading the current guys. That's what I'm getting at. You have to field a major league team, can't just trade everyone over and over. So you trade him and of the guys you get back one of them comes up but can only throw 92, well trade him because he doesn't throw fast enough, he'll never be an ace. When does it stop.

 

I think there's two very distinct discussions that are going on - one is the value of Wily Peralta. To that, I don't think anyone thinks he sucks. Far from it. Most people probably see him as a very good player. And no one would be thinking of dealing him if it was 2007. But the other question is the discussion of what comprises the next 'core' of players - guys who are going to take us to the next level - like what Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart and Hardy did 8-10 years ago. The simple fact is that Wily is currently on track to be a FA after 2018, and therefore, unlikely to be part of the next winning team we can produce. Therefore, people are talking about trading him to acquire assets that will be around in 2019 and beyond - and be part of the next core.

 

The thing that's really hanging over this organization is that it's brutally thin in talent. This is not 2006. We don't have Fielder, Braun, Hart, Hardy and Weeks emerging from the minors. We have NO core of players to build around at this time. Our (potential) core of new players is at A and AA. That's 2-3 years away from the big leagues. Again, that begs the question - why hang on to Wily when the team is destined to be bad during the rest of his time in Milwaukee (at this point, I'm defining his term in Milwaukee as through the 2018 season)?

 

The issue with Wily is not that he sucks - but that he doesn't suck (I don't think anyone wants to trade him because he's had three bad starts). Wily, Luc and Gomez are in the same boat - they are very good players who are going to be stuck on a bad teams in the near future. So why not take those assets that you have that you control in the short term (Gomez through 2016, Luc through 2017, and Peralta through 2018) and acquire assets that you control for 6+ years? Assets that can come to fruition in a year or two from now - along with other potential core assets. It's nothing against those guys, but it's all about the fact that this team will be bad for a few years, so why not plan for the time when we will (hopefully) be good again.

 

You can debate the merits of Peralta's upside. And the club could look to extend Wily beyond his current time of control, buying out a year or two of free agency. I think there are merits to both arguments. Of course, Wily has to be amendable to such a deal.

 

Dealing Wily (or anyone) offers risks. You're right, we always over value prospects. Everyone does (I also think we over value certain major players as well). It's why volume is so important. Prospects fail all the time. Others take time to develop. However, selling off key major league assets is no guarantee of success. I just want this team to actually put into a plan that can lead to success. I'm sick of year after year of band-aids. It begets mediocrity. And for all the talk about selling for the future, this club has done precious little of that over the past 10 years. We don't trade players - even if people have suggested it. Milwaukee has been a terribly reactionary club. We see needs, fill needs. Sometimes that is what is needed. But too much of it leads us to where we are today - rudderless, light on impact talent in the pipeline.

 

As I said, the only players on the roster worth quality prospects are Wily, Luc and Gomez. That's why they are such a hot point of discussion.

[superfly]

Well if you guys want to go completely into a Houston level teardown then so be it, that's fair. But there's nothing wrong with having some competent players on the team to win some games.

 

The grass is always greener on the other side...that's why the prospects are being perpetually overvalued around here. From a pure baseball standpoint this team isn't THAT bad for the 2016 season. Add a couple competent bats like Lind who take pitches and make good AB's. Guys like Matt Joyce who can be platooned by another cheap guy like Davis, Chris Denorfia, etc. Wasn't very long ago on here either everybody was wanting Jordan Zimmermann either...my how a month changes perspectives.

 

1) Zimmermann

2) Lohse (if he comes back to normal and would sign a 1 year deal)

3) Peralta

4) Garza

5) Nelson

 

C - Lucroy

1B - Lind / Rogers

2B - Gennett / Sardinas / H Gomez etc

SS - Segura

3B - Freese (?)

LF - Joyce/Davis

CF - Gomez

RF - Braun/Joyce

 

2017 rolls around and if Arcia is ready, you bump Segura to 2B and either trade/cut whatever to Gennett, and do whatever needs to be done with Sardinas.

 

I'm all for the rebuild, but let's not kid ourselves...that is a much better lineup on paper & Attanasio would go for that over a rebuild 9 out of every 10 times. I think as a fan most of us would take that and hope too.

[reillymcshane]

 

1) Zimmermann

2) Lohse (if he comes back to normal and would sign a 1 year deal)

3) Peralta

4) Garza

5) Nelson

 

C - Lucroy

1B - Lind / Rogers

2B - Gennett / H Gomez etc

SS - Segura

3B - Freese (?)

LF - Joyce/Davis

CF - Gomez

RF - Braun/Joyce

 

 

This lineup would be a lot like the line ups of the past 3-4 - mediocre. If all things worked out really well, they might even have a playoff chance. It could also fail miserably, just like this year.

 

Then 2016 rolls around and you lose your all-star CF and your starting 1B. And age won't do any favors for Braun, Luc or Garza.

 

It is a recipe for mediocrity. The club knows it well. As you noted, based on our past history, we'll likely see this more than we would a total rebuild.