Ryan Braun - Worst Contract in Franchise History?

[reillymcshane]

Suppan provided -0.8 bWAR during his time in Milwaukee for $44 million. He was a massive suck on resources at a time when we needed the money for other areas. The guy was paid $44 million to hurt this team. This was an awful contract.

 

Braun will make $105M with his extension. I'm betting he can rack up 10.0 bWAR in that time. That's 2.0 WAR a year. Perhaps I'm wrong. Maybe all the injuries, his age and PED issues mean he's just junk now. 10.0 WAR for $10M isn't a good deal - but it still is worth something. Braun was sitting at an .863 OPS just 1/2 a season ago - it makes me think he can do that again. It's a matter of getting healthy and putting together some good stretches. Again, it's just me, but I think it will happen.

[tmwiese55]

Not true. Because while Suppan was a disaster, save his meh 2007, and remarkably ill advised signing at the time without second guessing, the Brewers were still able to put a good team on the field.

 

Braun is in steep decline with absolutely NO sign of hope other than praying he will see 2012 again, and the big dollars haven't even started yet. His contract will cause the Brewers to make spending cuts elsewhere.

 

So your point is that it's a disaster because we can't field a team around it? You can't say that for sure yet either, I don't think we'll be competitive the next few years either but it's not because of his contract. It's the awful drafting the last several years. Who's to say they couldn't be competitive with a potential 15mil/year albatross? They just did it for a few years with Week's roughly 10 mil wasted contract didn't they? And in one of those years you had Hart's contract while he was on the DL all year. Put those two together and you're probably over 15 mil.

 

I guess Weeks is another one to consider on the list. Also, Bill Hall's extension.

[torts]

It is the worst contract in Brewers history and it isn't close. This is a really good board, and most can separate feelings of hurt as you say vs reality. And the reality is that Braun is not a very good player and he is on the hook for 5 more years + deferred money.

 

What evidence is there that Braun will hit to anything even approaching 2012 again? He hasn't been an elite or even good player for 2013, 2014, and the start of 2015.

'

Jeff Suppan's contract was the worst the franchise has ever had. If you can't see that as being truth you need to take your haterade tinted glasses off and re-examine some of the last decades contracts.

 

Not true. Because while Suppan was a disaster, save his meh 2007, and remarkably ill advised signing at the time without second guessing, the Brewers were still able to put a good team on the field.

 

Braun is in steep decline with absolutely NO sign of hope other than praying he will see 2012 again, and the big dollars haven't even started yet. His contract will cause the Brewers to make spending cuts elsewhere.

 

If by "spending cuts" you mean letting Garza and Loshe walk? Then yes, you are "right".

[monty57]

I look at the second extension in and of itself when discussing whether or not "it" was the worst contract. Of course you can't use his pre-arby years and buyouts of his arby years when comparing him with a free agent signing for whom we did not receive the benefit of the "cheap years." With baseball's salary structure, far and away the best value any team can get comes from pre-arby guys, and the next best value comes from extensions done during the pre-arby years. A good free agent deal can't come close to a player's pre-arby years, and even mistakes made in pre-arby extensions won't show up in "worst contract in history" discussions.

 

What this does showcase is why we need a lot of pre-arby guys, and why it's smart to extend good players during their pre-arby years rather than waiting until they're nearing free agency.

[clancyphile]

Bottom line, it isn't the worst contract for the Brewers and it won't hold this team back going forward. I know people's feelings are hurt by Braun, mine were a little bit too, but lets just hope he hits somewhat and other players around him step up as well.

 

It is the worst contract in Brewers history and it isn't close. This is a really good board, and most can separate feelings of hurt as you say vs reality. And the reality is that Braun is not a very good player and he is on the hook for 5 more years + deferred money.

 

What evidence is there that Braun will hit to anything even approaching 2012 again? He hasn't been an elite or even good player for 2013, 2014, and the start of 2015.

 

Checking splits and game logs at Baseball Reference:

 

Braun's 2013 OPS was .869 - not the .950 he was at, but it was three points higher than his 2010 OPS of .866. So, we are dealing with Braun having an off 2014, but the bottom did not drop out until August/September of 2014 - but everyone else on the Brewers had that happen, too. As of the game played on 1 August, 2014, his OPS was .851, only 15 points lower than the previous career low of .866 in 2010. For the first half of 2014, his OPS was .863, only three points lower than the career low.

 

Put my money on a Braun comeback to at least .850+ OPS level of production, and if the Brewers can get him some protection in the lineup (like he had with Prince Fielder in 2007-2011), then he may even be regularly above a .900 OPS.

[JJHardy7]

To me it's too early to say this right now about Braun, there's like 5 years left on it, as I said before if he pops out two or three 280/340 30ish HR seasons along with a couple statistically similar years to last year I don't think it should be considered a disaster contract when you factor in the immense value they got at the beginning of the deal.

 

I agree the Brewers saved $$$ on the first extension...I'm primarily worried about the 2nd extension that kicks in next year.

 

All speculation on my part, but I believe Braun was cheating for a long time. I can maybe understand signing the first extension from his view point, but why the world would he sign the 2nd extension? How many times have guys come to the Brewers and we hold out hope that they will sign an extension just like that (only for them to leave for a lot more money)? Fielder, CC, Greinke (I know he was traded, but we would have extended him on team friendly deal), etc.

 

IMO if Braun played out the first extension and was putting up those great numbers, he could have gone back to California and signed potentially the richest contract in the history of baseball. Why would he give that up? I don't care all that much that he did PEDs...I just wonder what Braun's camp was thinking when he signed the 2nd extension.

[tmwiese55]

Yea it's a different topic if you just say the extra extension.

 

If he was cheating the whole time why not just quit when you got the extension to avoid ever being caught? Can just chalk up the drop off to getting older/injuries and no one would ever think he's a cheat. My guess would be that he was an occasional user when he had a nagging injury. Man was it colossally dumb to take them during the playoffs when he knew he was going to get tested. Although I still don't rule out that test was a fluke if all the stuff reported at the time are true.

 

Reason for taking the extension when he did could be as simple as being able to put 105 mil in the bank without having to risk injury. He was locking in 20 mil per year for his 32-37 seasons, if everything goes well he wasn't going to get more than 25-30 mil for those years but maybe getting another year or two at the end of the contract. If you have two injury riddled seasons (like he just did, was hurt prior to suspension anyway) before FA he might not have gotten that much. He was able to lock in that he would never have to worry about money ever again.

[FVBrewerFan]

Do we know for sure that the Brewers can't take this to court, claiming Braun voided the contract? I look at it this way. If he shows signs again that he is close to the old Braun, at some point they'll be able to trade him. Teams don't care about past PED offenders, and there would be plenty of teams that would pay that contract for a .850 hitter that still has a few years left in his prime.

 

However, if he continues to struggle it's time to go to Braun after the season ends and ask to renegotiate his contract. If he refuses, there is the nuclear option. Cut him, don't pay him, and let the courts work it out. That could take years. My guess is that if the Brewers were serious about doing that, it would bring Braun back to the table to renegotiate. Would he be willing to not get paid while it's in the courts, risk losing and getting nothing, all the while having your name dragged through the mud again?

 

Now I realize that would be a bold move by the Brewers, and the union would be up in arms. But would other players around MLB? I mean, let's face it, Braun isn't the most popular guy on the field. I just think with the amount of money involved, you need to consider all options.

[JJHardy7]

Reason for taking the extension when he did could be as simple as being able to put 105 mil in the bank without having to risk injury. He was locking in 20 mil per year for his 32-37 seasons, if everything goes well he wasn't going to get more than 25-30 mil for those years but maybe getting another year or two at the end of the contract. If you have two injury riddled seasons (like he just did, was hurt prior to suspension anyway) before FA he might not have gotten that much. He was able to lock in that he would never have to worry about money ever again.

 

That's leaving potentially $25M - $50M by signing the deal he did and he deferred a piece of it as well.

 

Don't get me wrong...I understand the guaranteed money and not risking injury. There just aren't that many guys that would sign 2 extensions like he did.

[tmwiese55]

After signing the first one locking him through age 31/32 he might have just figured he was pot committed and best at that point better to get as much as you can. Free agency at 32 is different than at 29. Perfectly reasonable to think, "shoot, I shouldn't have given up those few years of post arby as I will hit free agency too late, might as well take the money now and never have to think about it". That's the most likely and simplest scenario. Who knows though what was really going on with him. It's hard to believe it all played out this way.

[clancyphile]

To me it's too early to say this right now about Braun, there's like 5 years left on it, as I said before if he pops out two or three 280/340 30ish HR seasons along with a couple statistically similar years to last year I don't think it should be considered a disaster contract when you factor in the immense value they got at the beginning of the deal.

 

I agree the Brewers saved $$$ on the first extension...I'm primarily worried about the 2nd extension that kicks in next year.

 

All speculation on my part, but I believe Braun was cheating for a long time. I can maybe understand signing the first extension from his view point, but why the world would he sign the 2nd extension? How many times have guys come to the Brewers and we hold out hope that they will sign an extension just like that (only for them to leave for a lot more money)? Fielder, CC, Greinke (I know he was traded, but we would have extended him on team friendly deal), etc.

 

IMO if Braun played out the first extension and was putting up those great numbers, he could have gone back to California and signed potentially the richest contract in the history of baseball. Why would he give that up? I don't care all that much that he did PEDs...I just wonder what Braun's camp was thinking when he signed the 2nd extension.

 

In 2012, the year after he wins the appeal, he leads the NL in homers. In 2013, he is posting a .995 OPS at the end of the 18 May game, when he was hit on his right hand, causing the thumb injury. During that timeframe of 195 games played, if Braun had been "heavily cheating" - to use your term - he would have popped positive once before that thumb injury.

 

The lack of PED evidence since that 2011 test, which the arbitrator threw out, points not to any PED-related performance, but the after-effects of that thumb injury suffered in mid-May of 2013.

[pacopete4]

I honestly think the biggest thing Braun lacks right now is confidence. A lot of people do not have faith in him anymore and I think some of that has fallen off to him in his own mind. That thumb gave him fits and didn't allow him to swing like he can. While it might not hurt him, he changed his game (think Tiger changing his golf swing and struggling). When Braun gets hot, and it will eventually happen, he will regain whatever mojo he had as a baseball player. While he might not OPS .950 anymore, I honestly have faith that he'll be about an .850-.900 OPS guy and to me, that makes his contract well worth it.

[monty57]

However, if he continues to struggle it's time to go to Braun after the season ends and ask to renegotiate his contract. If he refuses, there is the nuclear option. Cut him, don't pay him, and let the courts work it out. That could take years. My guess is that if the Brewers were serious about doing that, it would bring Braun back to the table to renegotiate. Would he be willing to not get paid while it's in the courts, risk losing and getting nothing, all the while having your name dragged through the mud again?

 

No, that's not remotely a possibility. If it were, the Yankees would have stopped paying A-Rod a few years ago. Braun will be paid by the Brewers until something like 2031 unless somehow the Brewers find a GM dumb enough to take that contract off their hands. Even if he plays well, he will not play up to his future contract, and the Brewers owe him for many years after he's done playing.

 

but why the world would he sign the 2nd extension?

 

According to all reports out at the time, Braun was a big cheerleader for the team in telling everyone to sign extensions offered to them. He probably just looks at money differently than most. Guarantees are huge, and getting a guaranteed $145MM is enough that it's not worth risk of the numerous scenarios that could play out in which without the guarantee he would not get paid.

 

Some players want to take the risk to get top dollar, while some would rather give up some potential in order to eliminate the risk. Either way is fine. If it's me, I'm accepting the extension for the guarantee. It's the same reason I buy insurance... risk transferal from myself to someone else.

[clancyphile]

I honestly think the biggest thing Braun lacks right now is confidence. A lot of people do not have faith in him anymore and I think some of that has fallen off to him in his own mind. That thumb gave him fits and didn't allow him to swing like he can. While it might not hurt him, he changed his game (think Tiger changing his golf swing and struggling). When Braun gets hot, and it will eventually happen, he will regain whatever mojo he had as a baseball player. While he might not OPS .950 anymore, I honestly have faith that he'll be about an .850-.900 OPS guy and to me, that makes his contract well worth it.

 

I wouldn't say a loss of confidence... I'd say it's about working back to the "good" mechanics as opposed to his "compromised" mechanics. The way he will fix that is with reps, and playing time. Not trying to sound repetitive, look at Derrick Rose this NBA season after he had two lost years due to his knee issues. He was uneven, but look what he did to the Bucks in Game One.

 

I think Braun can be a .900+ OPS player again... but he needs his mechanics back.

[FVBrewerFan]

However, if he continues to struggle it's time to go to Braun after the season ends and ask to renegotiate his contract. If he refuses, there is the nuclear option. Cut him, don't pay him, and let the courts work it out. That could take years. My guess is that if the Brewers were serious about doing that, it would bring Braun back to the table to renegotiate. Would he be willing to not get paid while it's in the courts, risk losing and getting nothing, all the while having your name dragged through the mud again?

 

No, that's not remotely a possibility. If it were, the Yankees would have stopped paying A-Rod a few years ago. Braun will be paid by the Brewers until something like 2031 unless somehow the Brewers find a GM dumb enough to take that contract off their hands. Even if he plays well, he will not play up to his future contract, and the Brewers owe him for many years after he's done playing.

 

No, all that proves is the Yankees didn't take that route. That's not proof they couldn't have. Also, none of us knows exactly how the contracts were written for ARod and Braun.

 

This is always quickly dismissed, but nobody has ever provided proof of why this couldn't be an option. (And I'll admit, there very well could be a reason why- I just haven't seen one yet.)

[JJHardy7]

Some players want to take the risk to get top dollar, while some would rather give up some potential in order to eliminate the risk. Either way is fine. If it's me, I'm accepting the extension for the guarantee. It's the same reason I buy insurance... risk transferal from myself to someone else.

 

I understand this and agree on the risk aspect. Most players don't do this though. I just think signing the 2nd extension essentially 5 years before he had to was a very dumb business move for Braun if he was clean (not to mention deferring money). Pujols got a huge deal in 2012 and he was about the age Braun is when he signed it.

 

I know I was a sucker that thought it was so awesome that a player actually enjoyed being a Brewer and liked the city of Milwaukee.

 

Where are the examples of guys signing a 2nd extension ~ 5 years before they had to? In any sport?

[FVBrewerFan]

Where are the examples of guys signing a 2nd extension ~ 5 years before they had to? In any sport?

 

Happens all the time in the NFL. Also fairly common in the NBA (admittedly not 5 years beforehand- but 2-3 is common.)

 

No idea if this is true, but there was a lot of speculation back then that Braun and Mark A had a relationship that extended beyond baseball, with Mark A's Hollywood contacts, etc. IF that's the case, it makes sense that Braun would want to sign long term early.

[tmwiese55]

No way the Brewers will try that lawsuit route. I'm sure the Yankees, who can afford the best lawyers on the planet, looked at all the possible avenues and decided it wasn't worth the risk. Let's see what happens when they supposedly try to withhold his bonus for his next HR, from what I read the Yankees will lose that in court without much doubt. I think it's as simple as if there was nothing written in the contract saying a PED suspension means you have the right to void the contract, then there's no way they're getting out of it. Either way, I think the Brewers should wait and see what NY does with Arod and it looks as though they're not going to try it so that route is a lost cause as advised by the Yankees lawyers.

 

So for those 5 years let's say he gets 6 mil extra each and one more year. 56 mil total, then pay half to the government and agent and it's 28 mil. Yes most players do gamble in order to get that 28 mil but I don't think it's crazy to say eff it, give me my money and I'm set for life. I'm not about to look up examples but pretty much all guys who stay with their original teams take extensions don't they? I'm not about to look if they took them 5 years before FA or not. Well actually take Miggy and Howard, they signed theirs 3 or 4 years before their first deals ended and both those guys are going to end up ripping off their teams, Howard already is.

[FVBrewerFan]

No way the Brewers will try that lawsuit route. I'm sure the Yankees, who can afford the best lawyers on the planet, looked at all the possible avenues and decided it wasn't worth the risk. Let's see what happens when they supposedly try to withhold his bonus for his next HR, from what I read the Yankees will lose that in court without much doubt. I think it's as simple as if there was nothing written in the contract saying a PED suspension means you have the right to void the contract, then there's no way they're getting out of it. Either way, I think the Brewers should wait and see what NY does with Arod and it looks as though they're not going to try it so that route is a lost cause as advised by the Yankees lawyers.

 

Again, how do we know ARod's contract is the same as Braun's? I would bet Braun's contract doesn't say anything specifically about PEDs, but it may not need to. It could have something vague like "conduct detrimental to the team" or something like that. Regardless of the likelihood that would hold up, it would put Braun back in the spotlight in a negative way and he doesn't want that. Plus, there's always a chance the Brewers could win that case. All depends what judge you get, they make crazy rulings every day.

[torts]

Why even bother speculating on contract language we will never see?

[MrTPlush]

You can not put anything negative or anything that might hurt a player into a contract. So no trying to void the contract for any reason. Also no way to put in PED situations either. The Brewers have nothing they can do.

[bill hAll Star]

LOL...cut him and take it to court? They would likely never win that and also never sign a big-dollar contract for the foreseeable future.

[Beast Light]

I think the Ryan Braun situation is pretty concerning and I don't think we can assume his production in 2012 came without the use of PEDs. It's entirely possible that he had used PEDs for his entire career. He could have easily tested positive due to a rare combination of error on his part while being randomly selected for testing. Many players have used PEDs and, relatively speaking, very few have been caught. If Braun was aware of a mistake on his part that directly led to the positive test and was confident that he could avoid making the mistake in the future, why would he stop using? Up until that point, he could have made it his entire career without testing positive.

 

To me, there is one point in time where we can be fairly certain that he stopped using PEDs - when Anthony Bosch's clinic was busted and shut down. Unfortunately for Braun and the Brewers, this point in time also marks a dramatic change in the level of his production. I think the PEDs impacted his performance far more than a lot people want to believe.

 

He is 31, seems to be getting injured with increased frequency and has been performing miserably when on the field. There is nothing good about this situation. I'm not sure if this will go down as the worst Brewers contract ever but I think it will easily wind up in the top 3.

[torts]

this is what Braun faced in 2012, and every season after. So if you want to believe he was still using whatever in 2012 when he killed it... then I dont know what to tell you.

 

A Player who is disciplined under Sections 7.A, 7.B, 7.C, 7.E, 7.F

or 7.G, or has otherwise violated the Program through the use or

possession of a Performance Enhancing Substance, Stimulant or

DHEA, shall be subject to the following mandatory follow-up testing

program, administered by the IPA:

 

Performance Enhancing Substances:

Six (6) unannounced urine collections and three (3) unannounced blood collections over the twelve (12) months following the violation that resulted in the follow-up testing, and six (6) unannounced urine collections and three (3) unannounced blood collections in every subsequent year in the Player’s career during which he is on a Club’s 40-man roster.

[Beast Light]

this is what Braun faced in 2012, and every season after. So if you want to believe he was still using whatever in 2012 when he killed it... then I dont know what to tell you.

 

A Player who is disciplined under Sections 7.A, 7.B, 7.C, 7.E, 7.F

or 7.G, or has otherwise violated the Program through the use or

possession of a Performance Enhancing Substance, Stimulant or

DHEA, shall be subject to the following mandatory follow-up testing

program, administered by the IPA:

 

Performance Enhancing Substances:

Six (6) unannounced urine collections and three (3) unannounced blood collections over the twelve (12) months following the violation that resulted in the follow-up testing, and six (6) unannounced urine collections and three (3) unannounced blood collections in every subsequent year in the Player’s career during which he is on a Club’s 40-man roster.

 

Was Braun disciplined or found to have violated the program at that point? Not sure as to why he would be subjected to this during the 2012 season if he won his appeal.