Ryan Braun - Worst Contract in Franchise History?

[bill hAll Star]

Can go all sorts of directions with hitters. Poo Holes (making a strong assumption he was on the juice) fell off the face of the earth from 1.100 OPS guy to .750ish over the past 3 years. Cruz has kept it going. Melky's power has been hit or miss.

 

It's going to be a shame that Poo Holes will forever be considered a guy that did it the "right way" like the rest of his franchise (and to his credit, maybe he did) and Braun will forever be tainted.

 

I dunno, call me crazy, but a guy that drops from 1.100 in his 20s, has a year or 2 at .850 at 30/31, and then basically becomes a $25 million/year .700-.750 OPS guy is insane.

[Boomer5]

Can go all sorts of directions with hitters. Poo Holes (making a strong assumption he was on the juice) fell off the face of the earth from 1.100 OPS guy to .750ish over the past 3 years. Cruz has kept it going. Melky's power has been hit or miss.

 

It's going to be a shame that Poo Holes will forever be considered a guy that did it the "right way" like the rest of his franchise (and to his credit, maybe he did) and Braun will forever be tainted.

 

I dunno, call me crazy, but a guy that drops from 1.100 in his 20s, has a year or 2 at .850 at 30/31, and then basically becomes a $25 million/year .700-.750 OPS guy is insane.

 

I agree with any Cardinal. They guy was so obviously a PED guy but he cashed in and never failed a drug test, so he passes. Cruz to me just has a better supplier and better masking agent. Proof? None, but once a liar, always a liar.

 

Braun WAS indeed different. Unlike Pooholes (13th round pick) and Cruz, Braun was an elite player his whole baseball life. The guy has always mashed. Maybe his natural talents will allow him to still be good while playing clean. I can maybe buy that. I can't see him ever being the guy people look up to again though.

[monty57]

I do not and will never buy into the thumb issue being the sole reason for the fall off.

 

I try to be a bit more open-minded. He did have surgery, so there was undoubtedly something wrong with his thumb. If he plays well going forward (not small sample stuff like his cold and hot times this year), then it will certainly appear that his down year last year was in large part due to his thumb. Unfortunately for the Brewers, that will take time, so if their plans are to sell off assets soon, it makes it harder to trade Braun. I would guess he will be a Brewer until at least this offseason, and probably for longer than that. But, if he plays well the rest of the season, he at least opens the door to someone trading for him.

 

the man is a habitual liar

 

I just know about the one case. Are there more, because calling someone a "habitual liar" means you have knowledge of a long line of lies about many things. I've known some habitual liars. They lie about everything, even if it doesn't seem to benefit them, and they easily get caught up in the web of lies by anyone who actually knows them and listens to them. It sounds more like animosity towards someone you used to admire who let you down than anything else. While that's understandable, it doesn't make him a habitual liar.

 

So I must admit my projections for Braun going forward are based on 2013 to today.

 

Why not include 2012 (.983 OPS), when he was healthy and subjected to heightened drug testing? And, if you are including 2013, then you probably like the .887 OPS he posted before getting hurt that year. Or, do you mean after that, where you are only including the time frame in which he was playing with an injured thumb and hit for something like a .360 OPS before getting suspended?

 

I don't know what Braun will do the rest of his career, and even if he plays well, I don't like that the Brewers have to pay him until something like 2030... that's crazy! But, please try to be objective, or at least try not to cherry pick things to fit a narrative. I don't like the general direction the Brewer brass have taken things the past few years, but I have to admit there have been some good moves. You don't like Braun because of what he did, but try to admit that he still has some talent.

 

My biggest reasons for wanting him traded are that eventually he will be old (by baseball standards) and I don't want to still have to pay him for a decade or so after that point. Add in that the team probably won't be good for the next few seasons when he could still be a good player, and there isn't much reason to hold on to him. It's sad that at one point he was one of the most valuable commodities in baseball, and now I'd be happy with a "meh" return, but such is the nature of things when dealing with the negative value of a big, guaranteed contract.

[monty57]

I can't see him ever being the guy people look up to again though.

 

Not the way he was. Time will heal the wounds for most people, and if Braun plays well, he will probably be looked at for his baseball career more than the "unseen asterisk" by his name. But I agree that he won't be the "face of the franchise" the Brewers hoped he would become when they inked the second extension.

[MrTPlush]

Can go all sorts of directions with hitters. Poo Holes (making a strong assumption he was on the juice) fell off the face of the earth from 1.100 OPS guy to .750ish over the past 3 years. Cruz has kept it going. Melky's power has been hit or miss.

 

It's going to be a shame that Poo Holes will forever be considered a guy that did it the "right way" like the rest of his franchise (and to his credit, maybe he did) and Braun will forever be tainted.

 

I dunno, call me crazy, but a guy that drops from 1.100 in his 20s, has a year or 2 at .850 at 30/31, and then basically becomes a $25 million/year .700-.750 OPS guy is insane.

 

I agree with any Cardinal. They guy was so obviously a PED guy but he cashed in and never failed a drug test, so he passes. Cruz to me just has a better supplier and better masking agent. Proof? None, but once a liar, always a liar.

 

Braun WAS indeed different. Unlike Pooholes (13th round pick) and Cruz, Braun was an elite player his whole baseball life. The guy has always mashed. Maybe his natural talents will allow him to still be good while playing clean. I can maybe buy that. I can't see him ever being the guy people look up to again though.

 

Highly disagree with your assessment on Braun. I couldn't find Braun's exact rank as a prospect when he was a prep, but it sounds like he was toward the back of Top 100 lists. NOT ELITE...Then anything once he got to Miami might as well be thrown out the window. Sounds like he got into the PED game pretty quickly there.

[Outlander]

"Those days are over" - Like when Yount fell off a cliff at age 33 - sometimes that is a risk of taking on a franchise player contract.

Minor nitpick but Yount won an MVP shortly after turning 34. I would certainly take two more MVP type seasons from Braun in 2016 and 2017 so the contract doesn't look quite as bad.

[bill hAll Star]

Fair enough - I was looking at the baseball-reference data and it only lists him at 33 in his last MVP year.

[tmwiese55]

As I said way back in all this, I'm in the camp that the thumb was more of an issue than anything else and I'm glad the last few weeks have somewhat supported that view. That being said, those who think that 3 weeks of good hitting has swung him from being absolutely untradeable to 'sell high' are delusional. 3 weeks doesn't do that. Everyone has been in wait and see mode with him and continues to be.

 

Also, those that say 3 weeks is small sample and they're not convinced he's back. I totally get it but I could just easily make the argument that the last 2 months of last year and April this year are the true small sample size when compared to the rest of his career.

 

Another thing people need to remember is that he's now 31/32 (natural regression) and that hitting in all of baseball has gone way down from 2012. So coming back to being an 850-900 is perfectly fine imo. Regardless, will teams be willing to pay 20 mil for that production, maybe not as most teams have realized the value in having players in their cost controlled early years unless they don't have to give much up in the trade. I still think if he has a good healthy season and finishes with something like 285/360 with 25-30 HRs that some rich team will take him. Especially an AL team that can give him some days at DH to keep fresh.

 

Finally, 20 mil per year is a lot but 5 years from now with rapid inflation in pro sports contracts it will make it a little easier to manage come 2019.

[MrTPlush]

I think judging his contract goes past just his on the field performance. What about the lack of merchandise sales? Before he was one of the best sellers in all of MLB...now most Brewers fans don't want anything related to him. How about the constant PED/lying stigma that will never go away? Really he doesn't provide much value outside of that on field performance. He is nearly impossible to market the way they used to. They have started to use him a little in marketing, but he will never be that stand alone marketing lightning rod. All the off the field value really does add up when you think about it.

 

For what this contract was suppose to provide in value compared to what it really will now is horrible. Will it be the worst in franchise history? Probably not, but I guarantee you that 10 years from now no one should look back and say, "Wow I am glad that deal was made."

 

Let's remember that this big deal wasn't so much for on field value. It was to make Braun a franchise image much like Yount and to etch him into Brewers history forever. Now that his image is shattered I don't know if the Brwwers will ever see those benefits.

[Boomer5]

I do not and will never buy into the thumb issue being the sole reason for the fall off.

 

I try to be a bit more open-minded. He did have surgery, so there was undoubtedly something wrong with his thumb. If he plays well going forward (not small sample stuff like his cold and hot times this year), then it will certainly appear that his down year last year was in large part due to his thumb. Unfortunately for the Brewers, that will take time, so if their plans are to sell off assets soon, it makes it harder to trade Braun. I would guess he will be a Brewer until at least this offseason, and probably for longer than that. But, if he plays well the rest of the season, he at least opens the door to someone trading for him.

 

the man is a habitual liar

 

I just know about the one case. Are there more, because calling someone a "habitual liar" means you have knowledge of a long line of lies about many things. I've known some habitual liars. They lie about everything, even if it doesn't seem to benefit them, and they easily get caught up in the web of lies by anyone who actually knows them and listens to them. It sounds more like animosity towards someone you used to admire who let you down than anything else. While that's understandable, it doesn't make him a habitual liar.

 

So I must admit my projections for Braun going forward are based on 2013 to today.

 

Why not include 2012 (.983 OPS), when he was healthy and subjected to heightened drug testing? And, if you are including 2013, then you probably like the .887 OPS he posted before getting hurt that year. Or, do you mean after that, where you are only including the time frame in which he was playing with an injured thumb and hit for something like a .360 OPS before getting suspended?

 

I don't know what Braun will do the rest of his career, and even if he plays well, I don't like that the Brewers have to pay him until something like 2030... that's crazy! But, please try to be objective, or at least try not to cherry pick things to fit a narrative. I don't like the general direction the Brewer brass have taken things the past few years, but I have to admit there have been some good moves. You don't like Braun because of what he did, but try to admit that he still has some talent.

 

My biggest reasons for wanting him traded are that eventually he will be old (by baseball standards) and I don't want to still have to pay him for a decade or so after that point. Add in that the team probably won't be good for the next few seasons when he could still be a good player, and there isn't much reason to hold on to him. It's sad that at one point he was one of the most valuable commodities in baseball, and now I'd be happy with a "meh" return, but such is the nature of things when dealing with the negative value of a big, guaranteed contract.

 

I am a bit more cynical than you when it comes to PED guys. Once a PED guy, always a PED guy. As hard as MLB looks at testing, the guys who sell the stuff work 10x harder at masking agents and new product. The players are hooked because there is quite literally 9 digits to be made. Follow the money, as they say. So, no, I am not buying he was totally clean in 2012.

 

The thumb, while a real injury, was way too timely and convenient an excuse for a year plus long performance drop. Overly skeptical? Maybe. I just have never heard of a thumb injury taking out a player for a year plus.

 

Braun is still a real baseball player with baseball talent. He has value above replacement, just not to the tune of contract. As someone already mentioned, Braun jerseys/gear are no longer part of the ROI of the contract which I am sure the Brewers figured into their cash flow when organizing such a deal. He is NOT a 5-6 war player and most certainly he will never be.

 

The contract was awarded to him for his 5-6 war talent AND off the field charisma/marketable super star. Since he is neither, and his deal will cause the Brewers to limit their payroll going forward, that is why the contract will certainly end up being the worst in Brewers history, even if he bounces back to being a decent fringe all star caliber player.

 

Honorable mentions have to be Suppan and Hammonds. I'm positive they never took PEDS, at least when they were Brewers. PEZ maybe, but not PEDS.

[bill hAll Star]

Honorable mentions have to be Suppan and Hammonds. I'm positive they never took PEDS, at least when they were Brewers. PEZ maybe, but not PEDS.

 

You've just listed one (and there are rumors of Suppan actually) of the most likely PED users ever, actually. How do you think Hammonds got the contract? Some think that Suppan was the way he was throwing at the end with the Cards as well.

 

Also, Coors Field helped Hammonds.

[Boomer5]

Honorable mentions have to be Suppan and Hammonds. I'm positive they never took PEDS, at least when they were Brewers. PEZ maybe, but not PEDS.

 

You've just listed one (and there are rumors of Suppan actually) of the most likely PED users ever, actually. How do you think Hammonds got the contract? Some think that Suppan was the way he was throwing at the end with the Cards as well.

 

Also, Coors Field helped Hammonds.

 

You are probably right. I was half kidding about possible PED use only because both were completely awful in Milwaukee. I never heard Hammonds name connected to PEDs, but I wouldnt be surprised. He was a Dean Taylor signing and few knew major league talent worse than that man. I would never sign a guy who was rumored to be a PED guy. A guy who "revived" his career playing in Coors should have been a major red flag. Not to Dean Taylor though.

 

Any vet that magically develops career level performance has to be under suspicion. And any Cardinal, always. I am very intrigued by Nelson Cruz' year. Never an elite player moving up the system, had his first 40 HR season at 33 (?), and is now mashing. To me, that is just a better supply, not that he found his stroke in his mid 30's. Playing in Seattle, of course.

 

Totally OT but the Mets did sign a Rockie and gave up a #1 to do it.

[tmwiese55]

There's PED guys all over the league, they just don't get the hype that Braun and Arod get. And those are just the known people, think of how many were using these minor supplements just like the Biogen guys but didn't get caught because it's such a minor thing. I don't want to get in yet another discussion but I'd recommend giving up on obsessing about it. And I think MLB should quit obsessing over it and creating bad pub for themselves. They've put in the most stringent testing of any sport in the world, move on. Contact lenses, lasic surgery, tommy john surgery, are these not performance enhancers?

 

Frankly, steroids saved baseball in the late 90s after the strike. Now they've drastically cleaned it up and offense is gone and everyone says baseball is boring and needs more offense. Can't win with people.

 

Nelson Cruz is probably the worst move Melvin ever made when he threw him in that trade with TX, guy crushed AAA for like two years and we wouldn't give him a shot because he struck out too much. Then we basically roll with strike out prone HR hitting team, seemed like he would've fit perfectly in what they were doing but they wouldn't give him a shot.

[TheCrew07]

T Contact lenses, lasic surgery, tommy john surgery, are these not performance enhancers?

 

Simply put, no.

[JJHardy7]

There's PED guys all over the league, they just don't get the hype that Braun and Arod get.

 

I think much of the hype Braun and A-Rod get is deserved because of how the reacted to the accusations or possible suspensions.

 

I personally think if Braun didn't lie about it and through an innocent person under the bus his reputation would be a lot different.

[Boomer5]

There's PED guys all over the league, they just don't get the hype that Braun and Arod get. And those are just the known people, think of how many were using these minor supplements just like the Biogen guys but didn't get caught because it's such a minor thing. I don't want to get in yet another discussion but I'd recommend giving up on obsessing about it. And I think MLB should quit obsessing over it and creating bad pub for themselves. They've put in the most stringent testing of any sport in the world, move on. Contact lenses, lasic surgery, tommy john surgery, are these not performance enhancers?

 

Frankly, steroids saved baseball in the late 90s after the strike. Now they've drastically cleaned it up and offense is gone and everyone says baseball is boring and needs more offense. Can't win with people.

 

Nelson Cruz is probably the worst move Melvin ever made when he threw him in that trade with TX, guy crushed AAA for like two years and we wouldn't give him a shot because he struck out too much. Then we basically roll with strike out prone HR hitting team, seemed like he would've fit perfectly in what they were doing but they wouldn't give him a shot.

 

PEDs are definitely not out of the game, we agree. Too much money is at stake on the supply and demand side for it to be gone.

 

If your argument is that players use PEDs so we should forgive Braun, then perhaps that is just the way of the game and as they say, it is what it is. I suppose I can accept that, though I am a bit of a purist.

 

But let's not pretend he wasn't a liar and that his "thumb" was the reason for him going from superstar to Just A Guy. Back on topic, the point of the contract was his 5-6 WAR level AND his likability and marketability (merchandise sales in the ROI). Since both are gone, PEDs or No PEDs, that makes this the worst contract in Brewers history.

 

Melvin usually does pretty well in trades, but yes, including Cruz was an eye opener. We were already giving up the best player in the trade in Lee, why did we need to include a sweetener? Kevin Mensch? Nix? A closer? Yikes what a horrible trade. I mean seriously, who trades an asset for Kevin Mensch? That was 2006, and he has seemed to learn since though.

[tmwiese55]

tmwiese55 said:

T Contact lenses, lasic surgery, tommy john surgery, are these not performance enhancers?

 

 

Simply put, no.

Quote

 

 

 

sooo, a guy goes from out of the league to still being able to play? his performance wasn't enhanced? Babe Ruth couldn't have done that.

 

My main point is that they're not just cramming real steroids to bulk up like they were before. People going for every edge they get is nothing new, been going on since the game started. little stuff is always going to be going on and the current PEDs are no different, yet the media has whipped everyone in a frenzy about it. Also, no one cares about PEDs in other sports yet they obsess about in baseball for some damn reason. It is what it is, just enjoy life and the game.

[tmwiese55]

Also, every play caught in the PED scandals has initially lied about it, just like Braun. He's just the second largest profile. I mean, what was he supposed to do? He won the appeal, was he supposed to win the appeal yet come out and admit it? Also, from everything I read at the time there's still a very real chance that the mishandling is what led to such a drastically high test. Arod doing what he did with the lawsuits etc. is it's own thing.

 

To the actual point of this thread. My take has been clear but I get the recent points about marketability and lower WAR. All true but as long as he hits respectably the next 4 years I don't think it should be considered a brutal contract. I think it's the nature of the contract structure of MLB, really anyones contract after their controlled years just will not live up to the money involved. If you want to take the stance that small market MKE just shouldn't sign anyone past their age 32ish age season that's fair.

 

I still stand by the thumb, normal age decline, and general mld offensive decline as a bigger reason for his dip from 1.00 ops guy to 850-9 than not taking a legal supplement instead of an illegal one every once in a while. It's still TBD though, last few weeks show well. we'll see if he keeps that up or falls off again. I could see a stronger argument made that the reason for his constant injuries now as attributable to not being able to take the extra supplements. His ability to hit the ball really hard was always there.

[TheCrew07]

sooo, a guy goes from out of the league to still being able to play? his performance wasn't enhanced? Babe Ruth couldn't have done that.

 

Once again, no.

 

That's awfully thin and quite twisted, 100 years ago people weren't living as long as they are today either, modern medicine is not in itself performance enhancing. We're talking about corrective surgery, bringing people to the same level as everyone else or returning them to their natural state. They aren't giving careers to athletes who would have never had them, they are extending the careers of athletes, which is a good thing. Not only for the athletes, but for baseball, and for the fans. Almost every pitcher the Brewers have had has had surgery of one form or another, plenty of hitters are having TJ surgery as well.

 

By that convoluted measure which continually makes the internet rounds anyone who had polio leg braces and then became a world class athlete like Wilma Rudolf was performance enhancing. Without having her foot straightened back out she would have never been able to compete athletically.

 

The notion of TJ surgery being performance enhancing is an incredibly weak reverse justification for the steroid era in all sports... it's not just a baseball thing, it's across all levels of sport, and transcends any individual sport. I don't have problem with people believing athletes should be able to enhance their performance by any means they choose, but until they start implanting bionics into athletes, athletes going under the knife for surgical repairs of torn tissue are anything but performance enhancing.

[tmwiese55]

You're actually proving my point Crew. If all that is ok, which it is, why are is it such a big deal if someone takes some supplements. So taking a ligament from a different part of your body or from another human and inserting into your body is ok, but taking a pill that makes you produce a little more testosterone is absolutely evil and wrong.

[monty57]

My argument to that relies solely on the rumored premise that the current "PEDs" are not performance enhancing, but instead help the player heal better. I do not have any idea if this is true, but it is a rumor that is out there. If this is indeed the case, then they are no more "performance enhancing" than cortisone, and they should probably be taken off the banned list, as we all want to see the athletes at top "non-enhanced" form on the field rather than resting a strained oblique on the bench.

 

One big "problem" (I guess some wouldn't see it as a problem) is that "PED" is a catch-all phrase. What's being used now certainly isn't as performance-enhancing as what was being used in the Sosa/McGuire/Bonds era. Those were like Steve Rogers/Captain America drugs turning 150-pound pinch runners into hulking, record setting home run hitters. It would be nice if there were some kind of gradation so the guy taking cough syrup wouldn't be classified with the guy taking super soldier serum.

[Thurston Fluff]

There's PED guys all over the league, they just don't get the hype that Braun and Arod get.

 

I think much of the hype Braun and A-Rod get is deserved because of how the reacted to the accusations or possible suspensions.

 

I personally think if Braun didn't lie about it and through an innocent person under the bus his reputation would be a lot different.

 

Not to go too far off subject but I wonder why Tom Brady can essentially lie and throw a couple ball boys under the bus and not receive any crap about it. I understand those dudes did actually deflate the ball, obviously at Brady's request, but that doesn't make Brady's actions relating to them any less wienie like.

[tmwiese55]

good point monty, right in line with what I'm getting at. Guys like Jimmie Rollins were hitting 30+ homers, that isn't going to happen anymore. But I don't see anyone hollering at Rollins every time he comes to the plate.

 

And one thing I should have mentioned in my last post. TJ or other major surgery isn't just getting people back to where the should be, where they should be is injured and unable to play (that is what is natural) and therefore they're not as good as the people who had stronger bodies and never had the major injury. That's the way it would go if people want to stick to this old school classic BS narrative that everyone should be doing it like they did in the 20s and 30s and 40s. What if Mickey Mantle had today's medicine to deal with the knee problem he got in his early years, he'd probably be the best player ever if so, by this line of thinking (that these old school people have) then no one should be able to have those surgeries to help.

[TheCrew07]

You're actually proving my point Crew. If all that is ok, which it is, why are is it such a big deal if someone takes some supplements. So taking a ligament from a different part of your body or from another human and inserting into your body is ok, but taking a pill that makes you produce a little more testosterone is absolutely evil and wrong.

 

Actually no, quite the opposite. Again I don't care to debate performance enhancing, I really don't care what people believe. I do take great issue with people using surgical procedures as proof of a performance enhancement double standard, ligament replacement is no different than setting a bone properly, which is not performance enhancement. That is just incredibly thin logic to spin the conversation on an axis which doesn't even truly exist. This is a conversation going no where, just going in circles, as such I'm done with it.

[tmwiese55]

Sorry, I don't see you saying anything other than. "no you're wrong. That medicine is ok, but this medicine is not." And again I'm fine with all those things being done, all these advances really show how everyone is willing to do whatever they can to play and play better. Just don't think it's then logical or fair to call these people the devil for using some supplements. We should just enjoy the game instead of getting all worked about stuff like PEDs.

 

You're right though, this is irrelevant to the Braun contract stuff. my point was to take this bs out of the discussion and just focus on the game.