Ryan Braun - Worst Contract in Franchise History?

[MrTPlush]

Alright so he has hit some meatballs lately. He still only has two doubles and can't handle the inside pitch. He has been more patient lately though which is really nice.

 

I will say there is hope he can be a productive hitter again...just how productive is the real question. And will that production off set the negative defensive value he brings to the table? For $20mil he will need to be smacking 30homers plus good AVG/OBP skills

 

I don't see his defense as that huge a negative.

 

Routes and jumps on the ball are pretty bad from everything I have seen. He doesn't have the speed to make up for mistakes and it hurts him on a lot. Now whether that slowly improves the longer he plays in RF like it seemed to do in LF I don't know. You also have to consider that his defense will get worse with age.

 

I don't think he will ever become a serious liability, but it still needs to be considered.

[Invader3K]

He's way better defensively in right field than Corey Hart ever was. Maybe that's not much of a measuring stick, though.

[Boomer5]

I think that a lot of people started worrying that Braun wasn't going to be the same player he once was, and that we'd be saddled with a huge contract for a good long time. As a Braun fan, I have no problem with the discussion. I also have no problem pointing out--again--that his drop in production was due to an injury to his thumb. Now that the thumb is better, what is he doing? Well, for the season, he's on a pace for 36 home runs and 95 RBI.

 

But...

 

Since his day off on April 26th?

 

17 games played. 17 for 60 (.283 AVG), 17 runs scored, 2 doubles, 7 home runs, 17 RBI, 3 SB, 17 K and 9 BB.

A triple slash line of .377/.667/1.044

 

Braun has a 1.044 OPS the last 17 games.

 

I'd say he's back to his normal self, wouldn't you all?

 

I'd say Betancourt had a 1.000 OPS over 17 games at some point. It is way too small a sample to say anything. It is very nice to see regardless.

 

This is the perfect time to trade him. They will be selling somewhat high. Restock the farm and get out from under the contract. Win win.

[Thurston Fluff]

Alright so he has hit some meatballs lately. He still only has two doubles and can't handle the inside pitch. He has been more patient lately though which is really nice.

 

I will say there is hope he can be a productive hitter again...just how productive is the real question. And will that production off set the negative defensive value he brings to the table? For $20mil he will need to be smacking 30homers plus good AVG/OBP skills

 

I don't see his defense as that huge a negative.

 

Routes and jumps on the ball are pretty bad from everything I have seen. He doesn't have the speed to make up for mistakes and it hurts him on a lot. Now whether that slowly improves the longer he plays in RF like it seemed to do in LF I don't know. You also have to consider that his defense will get worse with age.

 

I don't think he will ever become a serious liability, but it still needs to be considered.

 

While I disagree with you on how bad he is in right that isn't my point. The value of defense isn't the same across the board. The corner outfield spots are probably the two of least value compared to offense. So when taking into consideration the overall value of a player you have to take into consideration the weighted value of offense vs defense for that position. An above average defensive shortstop makes up more of the total value than an above average right fielder. A right fielder can be a gold glove defender yet it won't move his value needle much at all if his offense is below average.

[JJHardy7]

Someone disappeared from the board a couple weeks ago.

 

Who me? I'm letting Braun play it out. He's obviously played a lot better recently. I'm not rooting for him to fail since that would hurt the team.

 

Didn't folks around here used to say 'small sample size'? I don't know if he's back to the old Braun or not, but the recent results would be encouraging.

 

If Braun continues to play well and increases his trade value, would Brewers fans be mad if he was traded? Does he have a marketing impact on the team?

[monty57]

While I disagree with you on how bad he is in right that isn't my point. The value of defense isn't the same across the board. The corner outfield spots are probably the two of least value compared to offense. So when taking into consideration the overall value of a player you have to take into consideration the weighted value of offense vs defense for that position. An above average defensive shortstop makes up more of the total value than an above average right fielder. A right fielder can be a gold glove defender yet it won't move his value needle much at all if his offense is below average.

 

True to a point. A truly horrid OF that lets balls that should be caught go over his head for a triple (turning outs into doubles and triples) is probably more detrimental than a bad SS who lets some balls get by him that end up being singles (turning outs into singles). This of course is bearing in mind that while there are some SS that are worse than others, truly horrid fielders aren't put at SS, while there are some really bad fielders put in the corner OF positions.

[Boomer5]

Someone disappeared from the board a couple weeks ago.

 

Who me? I'm letting Braun play it out. He's obviously played a lot better recently. I'm not rooting for him to fail since that would hurt the team.

 

Didn't folks around here used to say 'small sample size'? I don't know if he's back to the old Braun or not, but the recent results would be encouraging.

 

If Braun continues to play well and increases his trade value, would Brewers fans be mad if he was traded? Does he have a marketing impact on the team?

 

This is the reason he almost has to be traded if we can find a taker. His contract was in part because he was a top 5 player and in part because he was the face of the franchise. The next Yount/Molitor.

 

He will never be that guy, no matter how or if he bounces back.

[bill hAll Star]

I think that a lot of people started worrying that Braun wasn't going to be the same player he once was, and that we'd be saddled with a huge contract for a good long time. As a Braun fan, I have no problem with the discussion. I also have no problem pointing out--again--that his drop in production was due to an injury to his thumb. Now that the thumb is better, what is he doing? Well, for the season, he's on a pace for 36 home runs and 95 RBI.

 

But...

 

Since his day off on April 26th?

 

17 games played. 17 for 60 (.283 AVG), 17 runs scored, 2 doubles, 7 home runs, 17 RBI, 3 SB, 17 K and 9 BB.

A triple slash line of .377/.667/1.044

 

Braun has a 1.044 OPS the last 17 games.

 

I'd say he's back to his normal self, wouldn't you all?

 

I'd say Betancourt had a 1.000 OPS over 17 games at some point. It is way too small a sample to say anything. It is very nice to see regardless.

 

That's a pretty extreme example to use for the "small sample" argument. I kinda agree with the rest on here. Maybe he's just back to being the high .800s guy of his "down" years, but you still can't throw a streak away like one did for Yuni. Braun's past success was propped up with many streaks like this. Betancourt probably had 1, maybe 2 streaks like this in his career.

[Boomer5]

I love that Braun has been so bad the last two years that the name Yuni can get put into a thread about him.

 

At the end of the day, he is a 1-2 WAR player that will be going on a 9 digit contract on a team that is on pace to have the number one pick in the draft. He is no longer a player that transcends his analytic value, so its time to move on If a taker emerges.

 

As I mentioned in another thread I would assume he has similar value as Heyward had (not a perfect example due to contract and defense), so perhaps thats the kind of package we'd be looking at???

[JJHardy7]

As I mentioned in another thread I would assume he has similar value as Heyward had (not a perfect example due to contract and defense), so perhaps thats the kind of package we'd be looking at???

 

I'm sure there are examples, but who has been traded that has been linked to PEDs related suspensions?

 

I'm sure there are some and some of them have signed free agent contracts.

 

I personally don't think it is possible to trade Braun as of today. He'll need to keep hitting the way he is for awhile to garner any type of interest IMO due to his contract.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd hesitate to call him a 1-2 WAR guy right now.

 

He was hitting pretty well in a shortened 2013 season, last year he was hurt all year...if you buy that he isn't hurt now, he could still be a 5-6 WAR guy.

 

He hasn't gotten a rash of lefties (he may not given the division this year) to beef up his numbers. He's only a little low on RHP OPS compared to career this year...he's only had 26 AB vs. LHP. He may destroy some upcoming lefties and get those numbers further up.

[bill hAll Star]

As I mentioned in another thread I would assume he has similar value as Heyward had (not a perfect example due to contract and defense), so perhaps thats the kind of package we'd be looking at???

 

I'm sure there are examples, but who has been traded that has been linked to PEDs related suspensions?

 

I'm sure there are some and some of them have signed free agent contracts.

 

I personally don't think it is possible to trade Braun as of today. He'll need to keep hitting the way he is for awhile to garner any type of interest IMO due to his contract.

 

I can guarantee you probably 20 teams would take him today if the Brewers were just looking to "shed" his contract that isn't even that bad.

[monty57]

I love that Braun has been so bad the last two years that the name Yuni can get put into a thread about him.

 

I don't. I liked it a lot better when his name was on lists with a bunch of Hall of Famers.

 

As I mentioned in another thread I would assume he has similar value as Heyward had

 

If we could get someone like Shelby Miller (young potential ace with around a year's service time), I think the Brewers would jump at the deal. He's probably not tradeable right now until he proves it was the thumb that was the problem. If he can put up a .850 OPS or so this season, it would be interesting to see what he'd bring back. In that scenario, he'd still be a valuable player, but his contract could have negative value (paying him for around 16 years), and his image has some negative value. I don't know what he could bring back, but he could make himself tradeable again and for the Brewers that could be the important thing.

[Boomer5]

As I mentioned in another thread I would assume he has similar value as Heyward had (not a perfect example due to contract and defense), so perhaps thats the kind of package we'd be looking at???

 

I'm sure there are examples, but who has been traded that has been linked to PEDs related suspensions?

 

I'm sure there are some and some of them have signed free agent contracts.

 

I personally don't think it is possible to trade Braun as of today. He'll need to keep hitting the way he is for awhile to garner any type of interest IMO due to his contract.

 

I am dubious myself. The contract plus the PEDS make it a tough sell. Personally, I just think that his recent streak is just a better supplier from Miami, but Im a fool me once fool me twice guy. I am over Braun.

 

However, I would think one more hot streak might give teams a vision of Nelson Cruz. All it takes is one dumb team, and there is no shortage of those.

[JJHardy7]

I can guarantee you probably 20 teams would take him today if the Brewers were just looking to "shed" his contract that isn't even that bad.

 

His big payday starts next year (there is some deferred money) and I think that is enough to scare most teams off.

 

Would you rather have Prince or Braun (they will be paid somewhat similarly by their respective teams given the fact Detroit is kicking in $6M a year to Texas)?

[bill hAll Star]

I can guarantee you probably 20 teams would take him today if the Brewers were just looking to "shed" his contract that isn't even that bad.

 

His big payday starts next year (there is some deferred money) and I think that is enough to scare most teams off.

 

Would you rather have Prince or Braun (they will be paid somewhat similarly by their respective teams given the fact Detroit is kicking in $6M a year to Texas)?

 

Ryan Braun without a doubt. Prince can't play defense for them because he's horrible at it and he's going to keep facing injuries due to the fact that he's pretty large (so is Braun, I guess).

 

Also, while Braun gets to play in an all-around hitter-friendly park, Prince gets arguably the best hitter for lefties in the majors right now. Take that away and he isn't mashing this year. He's got a .750 road OPS.

 

If I'm Texas and have the DH and that short porch, I take Prince. If I'm almost anybody else, I take Braun.

 

If Braun were to theoretically be a free agent this offseason...many teams would probably take a 5/$100 risk on him (which is what he effectively has left). Maybe 20 was a stretch, but there are plenty of teams that probably would just take on the money itself. The rest of this season will be the telling factor.

 

The deferred money thing is a bit annoying. I'm sure Braun wouldn't mind if a team was willing to bundle the deferred money back to "up front" which a franchise with a bit more $ laying around could do if they didn't want the annoying $2 million/year or whatever it is sitting on the books for 11 years.

[Boomer5]

I'd hesitate to call him a 1-2 WAR guy right now.

 

He was hitting pretty well in a shortened 2013 season, last year he was hurt all year...if you buy that he isn't hurt now, he could still be a 5-6 WAR guy.

 

He hasn't gotten a rash of lefties (he may not given the division this year) to beef up his numbers. He's only a little low on RHP OPS compared to career this year...he's only had 26 AB vs. LHP. He may destroy some upcoming lefties and get those numbers further up.

 

He absolutely is a 1-2 WAR player right now. That is what he has been since 2013 and two micro streaks hardly change that.

[Boomer5]

I love that Braun has been so bad the last two years that the name Yuni can get put into a thread about him.

 

I don't. I liked it a lot better when his name was on lists with a bunch of Hall of Famers.

 

As I mentioned in another thread I would assume he has similar value as Heyward had

 

If we could get someone like Shelby Miller (young potential ace with around a year's service time), I think the Brewers would jump at the deal. He's probably not tradeable right now until he proves it was the thumb that was the problem. If he can put up a .850 OPS or so this season, it would be interesting to see what he'd bring back. In that scenario, he'd still be a valuable player, but his contract could have negative value (paying him for around 16 years), and his image has some negative value. I don't know what he could bring back, but he could make himself tradeable again and for the Brewers that could be the important thing.

 

I was obviously being sarcastic with the Love comment. Should have used blue.

 

I only threw Heyward in there because the Braves were mentioned in another thread as a turn around story even better than the Astros/Cubs. I know Braun and Heyward aren't identical due to contract and defense. But they are both RF's, once thought of as big impact guys, with Brauns once upon a time elite status making up the difference of contract and lack of D compared to Heyward.

 

From what I read Miller was a bit stubborn and didnt buy into the Cardinal way, so he was the guy to go in the trade. There must be another guy like that on a team thats hold out hope that Brauns issues werent PEDS but rather the thumb storyline.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd hesitate to call him a 1-2 WAR guy right now.

 

He was hitting pretty well in a shortened 2013 season, last year he was hurt all year...if you buy that he isn't hurt now, he could still be a 5-6 WAR guy.

 

He hasn't gotten a rash of lefties (he may not given the division this year) to beef up his numbers. He's only a little low on RHP OPS compared to career this year...he's only had 26 AB vs. LHP. He may destroy some upcoming lefties and get those numbers further up.

 

He absolutely is a 1-2 WAR player right now. That is what he has been since 2013 and two micro streaks hardly change that.

 

Assuming he wasn't suspended/hurt in 2013, he was about a 4-5 WAR guy if he plays the whole season. He produced a 1.6 WAR in 62 games.

 

2014 is the contention point. Was he hurt? That's what we hope. With all of that he was a 1-2 WAR guy last year, no doubt.

 

However, from the beginning of his career until the point he was suspended in 2013 he was a 5+ WAR guy. In 2014 he claims he was hurt for a great deal of it and trailed off. I wouldn't be surprised if he went back to matching what he was for the first 6ish years of his career with a little bit of a downward adjustment for being off the juice and just being a little bit older.

[Boomer5]

I'd hesitate to call him a 1-2 WAR guy right now.

 

He was hitting pretty well in a shortened 2013 season, last year he was hurt all year...if you buy that he isn't hurt now, he could still be a 5-6 WAR guy.

 

He hasn't gotten a rash of lefties (he may not given the division this year) to beef up his numbers. He's only a little low on RHP OPS compared to career this year...he's only had 26 AB vs. LHP. He may destroy some upcoming lefties and get those numbers further up.

 

He absolutely is a 1-2 WAR player right now. That is what he has been since 2013 and two micro streaks hardly change that.

 

Assuming he wasn't suspended/hurt in 2013, he was about a 4-5 WAR guy if he plays the whole season. He produced a 1.6 WAR in 62 games.

 

2014 is the contention point. Was he hurt? That's what we hope. With all of that he was a 1-2 WAR guy last year, no doubt.

 

However, from the beginning of his career until the point he was suspended in 2013 he was a 5+ WAR guy. In 2014 he claims he was hurt for a great deal of it and trailed off. I wouldn't be surprised if he went back to matching what he was for the first 6ish years of his career with a little bit of a downward adjustment for being off the juice and just being a little bit older.

 

If you are right, then teams should be falling over themselves to land him.

 

As to the thread title, he wasn't signed because he could hit, he was signed because he was Yount/Molitor. He isn't and will never be, therefore he needs to go IF a team wants him.

 

As to his current value, If you see a 5-6 WAR guy, lets hope other teams do too.

[bill hAll Star]

If you are right, then teams should be falling over themselves to land him.

 

As to the thread title, he wasn't signed because he could hit, he was signed because he was Yount/Molitor. He isn't and will never be, therefore he needs to go IF a team wants him.

 

As to his current value, If you see a 5-6 WAR guy, lets hope other teams do too.

 

Are you saying he isn't "Yount/Molitor" because of the off-the-field stuff? If one assumes that he is at least somewhat back to his old self, Yount and Molitor both put up about 65 Fangraphs WAR over their career.

 

Braun has 33 and he's just turned 31. Seems reasonable that he could be ticketed for about 60-65 wins over his career.

 

If Braun averages 4 WAR/year the rest of his career (let's say he has 2 more years with 6-7 WAR and is otherwise a 3 WAR guy through his 30s) then he's going to almost hit 70 if he plays until he's 40.

[Boomer5]

If you are right, then teams should be falling over themselves to land him.

 

As to the thread title, he wasn't signed because he could hit, he was signed because he was Yount/Molitor. He isn't and will never be, therefore he needs to go IF a team wants him.

 

As to his current value, If you see a 5-6 WAR guy, lets hope other teams do too.

 

Are you saying he isn't "Yount/Molitor" because of the off-the-field stuff? If one assumes that he is at least somewhat back to his old self, Yount and Molitor both put up about 65 Fangraphs WAR over their career.

 

Braun has 33 and he's just turned 31. Seems reasonable that he could be ticketed for about 60-65 wins over his career.

 

If Braun averages 4 WAR/year the rest of his career (let's say he has 2 more years with 6-7 WAR and is otherwise a 3 WAR guy through his 30s) then he's going to almost hit 70 if he plays until he's 40.

 

I am referring to marketability, face of the franchise stuff. That is over for Braun.

 

I would never disagree that the Braun pre 2013 was fantastic and absolutely the best player in Franchise history. Those days are over. You can't project those stats going forward because he isn't that guy anymore.

 

Can he be a good hitter and passable RF? Possibly. Will he be the guy that you can build a team and fanbase around? No.

[bill hAll Star]

If you are right, then teams should be falling over themselves to land him.

 

As to the thread title, he wasn't signed because he could hit, he was signed because he was Yount/Molitor. He isn't and will never be, therefore he needs to go IF a team wants him.

 

As to his current value, If you see a 5-6 WAR guy, lets hope other teams do too.

 

Are you saying he isn't "Yount/Molitor" because of the off-the-field stuff? If one assumes that he is at least somewhat back to his old self, Yount and Molitor both put up about 65 Fangraphs WAR over their career.

 

Braun has 33 and he's just turned 31. Seems reasonable that he could be ticketed for about 60-65 wins over his career.

 

If Braun averages 4 WAR/year the rest of his career (let's say he has 2 more years with 6-7 WAR and is otherwise a 3 WAR guy through his 30s) then he's going to almost hit 70 if he plays until he's 40.

 

I am referring to marketability, face of the franchise stuff. That is over for Braun.

 

I would never disagree that the Braun pre 2013 was fantastic and absolutely the best player in Franchise history. Those days are over. You can't project those stats going forward because he isn't that guy anymore.

 

Can he be a good hitter and passable RF? Possibly. Will he be the guy that you can build a team and fanbase around? No.

 

"Face of the franchise stuff" - Like a cocaine user (Molitor)?

 

"Those days are over" - Like when Yount fell off a cliff at age 33 - sometimes that is a risk of taking on a franchise player contract.

 

We're at the crossroads for 2015 with Braun. Either he's healthy on his way to being a .900 guy for a few more years, he's a .780 "overpaid former star," or he's a .700 washed-up roid user. Time will tell, but I'll live with the middle option and hope for the return of the .900 guy (the .990 guy will never be back).

[logan82]

I can guarantee you probably 20 teams would take him today if the Brewers were just looking to "shed" his contract that isn't even that bad.

 

His big payday starts next year (there is some deferred money) and I think that is enough to scare most teams off.

 

Would you rather have Prince or Braun (they will be paid somewhat similarly by their respective teams given the fact Detroit is kicking in $6M a year to Texas)?

 

Ryan Braun without a doubt. Prince can't play defense for them because he's horrible at it and he's going to keep facing injuries due to the fact that he's pretty large (so is Braun, I guess).

 

Also, while Braun gets to play in an all-around hitter-friendly park, Prince gets arguably the best hitter for lefties in the majors right now. Take that away and he isn't mashing this year. He's got a .750 road OPS.

 

If I'm Texas and have the DH and that short porch, I take Prince. If I'm almost anybody else, I take Braun.

 

If Braun were to theoretically be a free agent this offseason...many teams would probably take a 5/$100 risk on him (which is what he effectively has left). Maybe 20 was a stretch, but there are plenty of teams that probably would just take on the money itself. The rest of this season will be the telling factor.

 

The deferred money thing is a bit annoying. I'm sure Braun wouldn't mind if a team was willing to bundle the deferred money back to "up front" which a franchise with a bit more $ laying around could do if they didn't want the annoying $2 million/year or whatever it is sitting on the books for 11 years.

Miller Park plays pretty neutral overall and has for years. High in HR, low in everything else.

[Boomer5]

"Face of the franchise stuff" - Like a cocaine user (Molitor)?

 

"Those days are over" - Like when Yount fell off a cliff at age 33 - sometimes that is a risk of taking on a franchise player contract.

 

We're at the crossroads for 2015 with Braun. Either he's healthy on his way to being a .900 guy for a few more years, he's a .780 "overpaid former star," or he's a .700 washed-up roid user. Time will tell, but I'll live with the middle option and hope for the return of the .900 guy (the .990 guy will never be back).

 

You are right, 2015 is a big year for Braun. I do not and will never buy into the thumb issue being the sole reason for the fall off. I know that isn't popular, but the man is a habitual liar and PEDS are taken for a reason. So I must admit my projections for Braun going forward are based on 2013 to today. I am fully discounting anything he did prior to that.

 

Molitor had issues early in his career and of course he left us. Had this been in the era of social media, he would have been viewed as a significantly different player. OT but its amazing how baseball coverage has changed from the days of waiting to pick up the paper to see how the league performed. What a difference!

 

Yount was with us since he was 18, and was a MVP and gold glove guy at SS and CF. Braun was the better hitter by far. Yount the better face of the franchise guy IMHO. Id love to see the sales data of 8 jerseys pre and post 2013.