2015 Regular Season Optimism Thread

[Nottso]

How important is a dominant pen if they do indeed become dominant? I'm not asking to be a turd, I'm asking because I'm sure some of you guys have some kind of advanced metric that actually assigns a value and I have no clue about that stuff.

 

I get it that a dismal pen can really hurt a team, but how big a plus is to have a really dominant pen? What percentages would you guys assign to various aspects of a team?

 

Starting pitching ___%

Relief pitching ___%

Offense ___%

Defense ___%

Other (what?) ___%

[reillymcshane]

Agreed. Plus Magnifico, Burgos....

I forgot about Magnifico. He's really looked at home with the move to relieving this year.

[FVBrewerFan]

How important is a dominant pen if they do indeed become dominant?

 

There are others here who can better answer your question using advanced stats. But I'll say this, remember back to the 2011 season. Axford, KRod, Hawkins, and Saito were almost untouchable- especially down the stretch. When they got the 7th with a lead, game was over. And that wasn't even a dominant pen, other than the late inning guys.

 

I've always maintained the pen is one area a small market team like the Brewers can compete with anybody. If two of their home-grown SP can become top of the rotation guys, and they build a dominant pen, that goes a long way to making them a contender again.

[TheCrew07]

Starting pitching - 60%

Position Players - 30%

Bullpen - 10%

 

The problem is that good bullpen arms are paid like starting pitchers, but instead of getting 200+ innings you get 60, so having a very good homegrown bullpen is huge from a payroll perspective.

[danzig6767]

Starting pitching - 60%

Position Players - 30%

Bullpen - 10%

 

The problem is that good bullpen arms are paid like starting pitchers, but instead of getting 200+ innings you get 60, so having a very good homegrown bullpen is huge from a payroll perspective.

I think you are understating the importance of bullpens in today's version of baseball.

 

Hell, just look at the playoffs the last 4-5 years. For so long the adage was you had to have really good to great starting pitching to have any chance to win in the playoffs. Yea the Giants had Bumgarner last season, but he was an extreme outlier in his insane greatness in those playoffs. Even with that, the rest of the Giants starters struggled. It was Bumgarner and his historic effort alone, along with their pen who won that series vs KC.

 

When the Cardinals won the title in 2011, their rotation was very mediocre overall in the playoffs, but LaRussa was masterful at riding his good bullpen for much of the playoffs on the way to a ring.

 

When Boston won it all, their bullpen was huge throughout the playoffs as often their rotation struggled besides Lester. After Lester and Ortiz, Uehara was arguably their third most important player in the playoffs.

 

Last year, if not for Bumgarner, the Royals could have won it all as their dominant bullpen was not only a massive factor in the playoff success, but also in them simply making the playoffs.

 

Clearly teams need to have enough good starting pitching over such a long 162 game season for any hopes of simply making the playoffs because a bad rotation is a death sentence to a MLB season. That said, have a pretty good offense, at least a solid overall rotation with one upper tier starter, and a great bullpen, your team can make the playoffs today and once there, have as good a chance as any team to win it all.

 

The days of needing more than one really good starter to have any chance to win in the playoffs are mostly over so long as a team has a very good pen and a productive offense. Years ago teams would want to wear down the starter to get to the pen in the playoffs, but today if a team has a great bullpen, often an offense is better off with a starter in longer so long as a dominant ace isn't on the mound. Plus, with off days in the playoffs and the season ending which combined allows managers no longer having to worry as much about over use of the bullpen, they can use them earlier if needed and more often. So a starter is struggling or just mediocre, a manager can simply yank the guy in say the 4th/5th inning as LaRussa often did and turn instead to a stable of sub-3 or 4 ERA bullpen pitchers to keep his team in the game.

[SomewhereInTime]

Starting pitching - 60%

Position Players - 30%

Bullpen - 10%

 

The problem is that good bullpen arms are paid like starting pitchers, but instead of getting 200+ innings you get 60, so having a very good homegrown bullpen is huge from a payroll perspective.

 

35% starting pitching

20% bullpen

30% hitting

15% defense

[DuWayne Steurer]

Look at the Royals of last year. They had a pedestrian offense (maybe even "bad") a decent rotation, and an unhittable bullpen.

 

Certainly not saying that's the model to follow.... But it worked.

[MrTPlush]

What is easier...holding a lead after 6 or after 9? A dominant bullpen means you can have a pedestrian starting rotation because what they give up is usually it for the game. If you have a really good bullpen and rotation...oh my.

[Nottso]

How important is a dominant pen if they do indeed become dominant?

 

There are others here who can better answer your question using advanced stats. But I'll say this, remember back to the 2011 season. Axford, KRod, Hawkins, and Saito were almost untouchable- especially down the stretch. When they got the 7th with a lead, game was over. And that wasn't even a dominant pen, other than the late inning guys.

 

I've always maintained the pen is one area a small market team like the Brewers can compete with anybody. If two of their home-grown SP can become top of the rotation guys, and they build a dominant pen, that goes a long way to making them a contender again.

 

I had forgotten all about that. That was indeed a lot of fun. Thanks for the reminder and the good points overall. Others have made some good points as well.

[torts]

i am back from vacation in the mountains surrounded by way more brewers fans than any other sport, all in the midst of an 8 game double sweep. I CANNOT EXPRESS HOW EXCITED I AM TO SEE THIS TEAM WIN MAYBE I NEED TO GO CAMPING MORE OFTEN!!!!! IIIITTTSSSS HAAAPPPEEENNNNNIJNNNN NG GGFGGFF

[JohnBriggs12]

How important is a dominant pen if they do indeed become dominant?

 

There are others here who can better answer your question using advanced stats. But I'll say this, remember back to the 2011 season. Axford, KRod, Hawkins, and Saito were almost untouchable- especially down the stretch. When they got the 7th with a lead, game was over. And that wasn't even a dominant pen, other than the late inning guys.

 

I've always maintained the pen is one area a small market team like the Brewers can compete with anybody. If two of their home-grown SP can become top of the rotation guys, and they build a dominant pen, that goes a long way to making them a contender again.

 

I had forgotten all about that. That was indeed a lot of fun. Thanks for the reminder and the good points overall. Others have made some good points as well.

 

Yeah the dominance of the bullpen in 2011 was indeed a prime factor in that season's success. Even with Prince gone the following year, had the bullpen performed as it did in 2011, they'd have easily made the postseason again that year. The 2012 bullpen was as bad as they were good in 2011. It wasn't until they were hopelessly out of it in 2012 that they turned to Henderson to close out of desperation that it stabilized some.

[FVBrewerFan]

I should have added this. Dominant bullpen usually goes hand and hand with good starting pitching. If your starters struggle to get through 5 or 6 innings, the bullpen gets stretched thin and your late inning guys are forced to eat up earlier innings, get over-used, and we all know how that ends up.

[Jimbo]

How important is a dominant pen if they do indeed become dominant? I'm not asking to be a turd, I'm asking because I'm sure some of you guys have some kind of advanced metric that actually assigns a value and I have no clue about that stuff.

 

I get it that a dismal pen can really hurt a team, but how big a plus is to have a really dominant pen? What percentages would you guys assign to various aspects of a team?

 

Starting pitching ___%

Relief pitching ___%

Offense ___%

Defense ___%

Other (what?) ___%

 

Starting Pitching = 30%

Relief Pitching = 15%

Fielding = 5%

Hitting = 49%

Base Running = 1%

 

Offense = 50%

Defense = 50%

[torts]

10-4 in july!!!

[JohnBriggs12]

If the Brewers can go 45-24 in the remaining 69 games, they finish 86-76. That's 21 games over .500. In 1991, Brewers went 40-19 over their final 59. That was Harry Dalton's last year as GM. The next year, they won 92 and had there been wild cards in those days, that would have been good enough for the postseason.

[brewmann04]

Let's worry about to 500 first and don't forget those big road trips in sept.

[pitchleague]

As much as I'd like a high draft pick, it also would be fun to do a mirror image of 2014. (Great start, blah middle, ugly end vs. ugly start, blah middle, great end)

 

 

Would be neat to see them go 24-8 in Sept./Oct. after getting to .500 sometime late in August.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Nice to see the Brewers showing signs of life. Maybe Counsell is a good manager. Maybe the stench of RRR is finally wearing off. Who knows. All I know is that it's fun watching them again. Hopefully they can finish above .500.

[torts]

All I know is that it's fun watching them again.

 

 

YES!!!!!!!! SO MUCH THIS!!!!!!!

[tmwiese55]

· Since May 30th the Brewers have 22 wins. Only two MLB teams (Pirates 27, Cardinals 24) have more.

 

I got this Friday in the weekly email from my ticket rep. 3rd best team in MLB in the last almost two months, yes much funner to watch again. Next 6 games vs just ok teams in Cle and AZ. Go 5-1 and they're in it!! Bench Lohse for Peralta fairly soon would be nice.

[pitchleague]

Kind of was discouraged getting into my classroom to do a bit of prep work for next week's first week of school and seeing my standing board showing the Brewers at 12 games under .500 when I left school before Memorial Day and they've made up only one game since then. But, hey! It's a winning record!

[torts]

Kind of was discouraged getting into my classroom to do a bit of prep work for next week's first week of school and seeing my standing board showing the Brewers at 12 games under .500 when I left school before Memorial Day and they've made up only one game since then. But, hey! It's a winning record!

 

AWWW YEAHHH!!!!!!!!!!!! WINNING RECORD!!!!! #WINNING

[tmwiese55]

So Garza is back tonight. Anyone heard an update on Peralta lately? Would like him back so they can put Lohse in mop up duty and continue this run for the WC

[torts]

ssooooooooooooooo...

 

THIS.

IS.

AAAAAWEEEEESOOOMMM.MMEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED

[pacopete4]

This is awesome and fun again. I hope they just keep on winning and make this season real interesting.