What Many Brewers Fans May Think, But Dare Not Say (Yet)

[reillymcshane]

This club had a lot of red flags. Flags everyone, including management, saw. This was a team that had a lot of downside, and limited upside.

 

- A promising, but no sure thing, key rookie (Nelson).

- A lot of not very pedestrian looking rookies and never-had-success guys on the bench (Schafer, H. Gomez, Jimenez).

- Several key guys with limited, and sometimes mixed, track records of success (Davis, Scooter, Fiers) - plus limited upside.

- Key aging players (Lohse, Ramirez).

- Players coming off injuries (Braun, Lind, Thornburg, Henderson).

- Very few players who possess the skill set and ability to more than just average (Peralta, maybe Segura, maybe Jeffress and Smith).

- Only a few what I would be called 'sure things' - guys in their prime with extended track records of success (Lucroy, Gomez, Lind, Parra, maybe Garza).

 

These are just a handful of things - I'm sure there are others.

 

There was (and is) just a lot that can go wrong with this team. And outside of Braun returning to his PED-era self, the jump in performances that could be hoped for, just aren't that huge.

 

You can sometimes navigate around red flags, but usually not all of them. Unfortunately, we are hitting most of the flags.

 

I honestly think this team isn't that bad. Luc isn't going to hit sub-.200. And Lohse won't end up with a 10.00+ ERA. It doesn't mean we'll be great or anything - but averagish is still possible. If the club starts selling off assets, that could change, but for now, there's still some decent talent on the team.

[MrTPlush]

Anyone who hasn't hit arbitration shouldn't be traded and surely won't unless the Brewers are BLOWN away.

[danzig6767]

Melvin needs to go. He's done an alright job getting us out of the doldrums and even got us into the playoffs a few times with acquisitions of ace pitchers. But overall his performance results in a team that hovers around .500. Good compared to what the team did for most of the 90's. But not where they should be. He's an old timer who is stuck in his ways and does not possess that innovative thinking that allows a small market team to compete an an annual basis. Where he should be recycling talent he instead hangs onto talent as long as he can as tries to squeeze as much out of it as he can get.

 

If Melvin doesn't do something radical, and his history says he won't, the team could be one of the worst in baseball over the next 2-3 years.

 

I'd like to see a new GM also, but you are being naive if you really believe that this way of roster construction and direction is just a Melvin plan. Based on many articles over the years, Attanasio clearly has had significant input on free agent signings and setting the overall direction for the from year to year.

 

I don't think that there is any chance that Melvin would be allowed to trade a guy like say Gomez, Garza, Lucroy, etc without first getting permission from Attanasio, much less trade multiple of them and just blow things up. Attanasio will be the main one to decide if a major blow up is allowed, when it can happen, and to what degree. Doug won't be allowed to decide that on his own.

 

I'll grant that the odds are good that overall, both of Melvin/Attanasio have shared similar belief systems for roster construction, but after nearly every major signing being it Suppan, Ramirez, Garza, Loshe, etc, there were articles mentioning how Attanasio was the main guy negotiating the contracts with the agents of those players. Hell, right before K-Rod was recently signed, Melvin was asked if negotiations were happening between the two sides and he said you have to ask Mark, that he handles negotiations with Boras. Same thing when Loshe was signed. Articles came out that Boras was calling Attanasio on a near daily basis.

 

A new GM would be a very refreshing change, but if Attanasio continues in his mixed role of owner and quasi-GM, a new general manager will end up trying to work with one arm tied behind his back. Plus, if Mark really did want to blow things up at some point this year, i'd rather he brought in a new GM before doing major trades and letting that new guy pulling the trigger on the moves which could have impact on the team for years to come.

[Pugger]

Anyone on the 25 not names Peralta or Nelson should be on the trading blocks. That's not to say they should trade all of them, but if you get the right offer you take it.

 

We are stuck with Braun. Nobody is gonna take that contract with that baggage.

[Pugger]

I just read that the manager for the Marlins is "on the hotseat" after the team is off to a 3-10 start and seemingly has no fire in them. He also received a contract extension just a few months ago. I guess that just makes me wonder even more why Roenicke, who presided over one of the biggest late season collapses in history last year, and has guided the current team to the worst start in franchise history, just continues to skate on by with seemingly no pressure on him at all. No accountability from the ownership, no rumors at all about how he may have to get his *bleep* together, just nothing. I just don't understand why he still has a job. Maybe I am just missing all the masterful strategic decisions he nails during games.

 

 

Whole different scenario. The Marlins gave out Franchise contracts to Stanton and Yelich failed on Ozuna(which I think is better for them) Made trades to get Gordon and Haren and Latos plus some more I'm sure. They are a franchise with public scrutiny and this was to be a resurgence to drive ticket sales that are bleak to begin with. Now with this start, a roof that allowed rain to fall because of how slow it is, it's not encouraging to be a bandwagon fan and see some games, buying some tickets. So yeah, Showing that the Front Office is willing to make a move might keep the bandwagon/casual fan interested in the team....Especially because Jose Fernandez will appear for them some time in June. There isn't a fanbase here in Miami like in Milwaukee. I still believe Loria will sell the franchise when he can, but it's value is going to depend on the fans filling the seats. They have a young exciting core of players, and if they draw less than the first few years of the stadium this year and next, I can't fathom, how that franchise value doesn't dwindle. Loria is probably shooting for 650mil maybe 700mil on a sale. I think I read it's valued around 550 as of last year? You lose fans and it turns to 450mil vs gaining fans and hitting that 650/700 range? It's all strategy for them. Rather than the highlights be of Soccer for 3mins and then a 30sec blip about the Marlins losing, It'll be 3min of Marlins coach fired, and a daily dose of another 2-3min daily of the search for a new manager leading the way.

 

Meanwhile, one hopes the team wins with being in the news to keep interest in them vs being thrown on the backburner.

 

They consider southwest FL to be in the Miami Marlins and Tampa Rays markets so we get all of their games. The attendance for both teams is sad, frankly. I was thinking with the new park in Miami the attendance would improve. I like the Marlins and their announcers. We watch their games when the Crew isn't playing. If indeed their manager is on the hot seat it is a wonder why RR is not.

[monty57]

Agreed Danzig. Attanasio is going to remain "hands on," so I just wonder if he will be willing to change with the situation, or if he will continue to operate in the same manner even in times when it is obvious to everyone that the team is not a contender and would be best served with some sort of a rebuild.

 

My concern is that from the limited insight we as fans have into the front office, it appears to me that Melvin has been trying to steer the ship into more of a "build for the future" mode the last few years, while Attanasio continues to do "win now" moves. Melvin's casual, laid back demeanor along with his years of experience and trust Attanasio has in him may be the calming influence that is keeping us from going even more overboard on "win now." If this is the case, there's a good possibility a new GM might not be able to rein in Attanasio, and instead of just the annual signing of a mid-30's player with a name people know, we'll also see more "prospect-for-proven guy" trades.

 

Who knows, but I sure hope that if Attanasio wants to continue to "play GM," that he is learning from his mistakes because I don't think he's helped the Brewers with most of the moves that he's initiated.

[FVBrewerFan]

Anyone on the 25 not names Peralta or Nelson should be on the trading blocks. That's not to say they should trade all of them, but if you get the right offer you take it.

 

We are stuck with Braun. Nobody is gonna take that contract with that baggage.

 

I understand that, some guys will be very difficult to move. That's why they aren't going to trade 23 guys. You ask around about all of them though, and see what you get in return. And, by the way, I don't think Braun's baggage would prevent a trade. There's a ton of guys who have been caught, I don't think that scares anyone away. What DOES scare people away is somehow Braun has evolved into Kevin Mench.

[FVBrewerFan]

Anyone who hasn't hit arbitration shouldn't be traded and surely won't unless the Brewers are BLOWN away.

 

Why not? Maybe a team loves Segura, why not trade him for a top shelf player that is also pre-arby, or may not even be in MLB yet? I don't think you need to be blown away, just get a good return that will make your team better in the long run.

[reillymcshane]

I would think RR is totally on the hot seat. Ownership expected the team to compete. You fired the hitting coach after last season, so you can't scapegoat Coles. The club will need a dramatic gesture, and you can't fire the players, which means canning RR. They need to do it soon if the club hopes to rebound from the hole they have dug themselves.

 

Remember, management plays things very close to the vest - draft picks, trades, signings. We often don't have any clue they are coming. So I wouldn't be surprised if Mark A and Melvin are plotting RR's demise right now. They're probably looking at candidates so they can do something quickly. They don't want to fire RR, then say 'we have to do an extensive review of qualified people, blah, blah, blah...' That will only leave the players in limbo wondering who will be coming in, what will his style be, etc. Best just say, 'Ron is gone. We thank him. But we need to get this team, which is talented, back on track. We've hired [insert name] to get things in order.'

 

No matter who it is, the club needs a jolt. We have no impact players at AAA, and it's not like trading for one or two guys is going to save the season, so a new manager is the simplest way to do kick start things at this juncture.

 

It might be unrealistic to think we can rebound from our poor start, but it's still early, so you never know. Plus, even if the club doesn't get back into the playoff race, it would really help if some of our struggling players could re-establish some sort of trade value, so even if we go into more of a rebuild mode, you can perhaps trade them later in the season for prospects.

[jerichoholicninja]

I would think RR is totally on the hot seat. Ownership expected the team to compete. You fired the hitting coach after last season, so you can't scapegoat Coles. The club will need a dramatic gesture, and you can't fire the players, which means canning RR. They need to do it soon if the club hopes to rebound from the hole they have dug themselves.

 

Remember, management plays things very close to the vest - draft picks, trades, signings. We often don't have any clue they are coming. So I wouldn't be surprised if Mark A and Melvin are plotting RR's demise right now. They're probably looking at candidates so they can do something quickly. They don't want to fire RR, then say 'we have to do an extensive review of qualified people, blah, blah, blah...' That will only leave the players in limbo wondering who will be coming in, what will his style be, etc. Best just say, 'Ron is gone. We thank him. But we need to get this team, which is talented, back on track. We've hired [insert name] to get things in order.'

 

No matter who it is, the club needs a jolt. We have no impact players at AAA, and it's not like trading for one or two guys is going to save the season, so a new manager is the simplest way to do kick start things at this juncture.

 

It might be unrealistic to think we can rebound from our poor start, but it's still early, so you never know. Plus, even if the club doesn't get back into the playoff race, it would really help if some of our struggling players could re-establish some sort of trade value, so even if we go into more of a rebuild mode, you can perhaps trade them later in the season for prospects.

 

That's a good point that it's not just firing Ron but finding someone to replace him. It's not like there's a week or two left in the season and you can just ride it out with the bench coach, you need someone you'll be comfortable with managing for almost a whole season and not taking away a key coach from your minor league system. That probably means the replacement is on the Major League staff and it's probably Jerry Narron.

[paul253]

I'd like to see a new GM also, but you are being naive if you really believe that this way of roster construction and direction is just a Melvin plan. Based on many articles over the years, Attanasio clearly has had significant input on free agent signings and setting the overall direction for the from year to year.

Please. This is just one big excuse to give Melvin a pass on the average teams he's thrown together the past few seasons. I have no doubt the Mark A. has say in what goes on but I don't think it's nearly as bad as you make it seem. I doubt he's flat out told Melvin he's not allowed to trade Gomez, for instance. Hanging on to a player like Gomez, even if Melvin trades him after the season, is his M.O. He does not trade good players before the final year of their contract.

[tmwiese55]

Regarding Braun's baggage: I don't think the Orioles are too upset with signing Cruz last year, and it seems Seattle is happy with him as well and paid what 50+ mil? STL seemed pretty happy with Peralta last year as they made the NLCS and paid 40+ mil. If Braun was hitting anywhere close to his old self, teams would take him. Maybe they'd negotiate some money off it though to help with the cost at the end.

[reillymcshane]

Regarding Braun's baggage: I don't think the Orioles are too upset with signing Cruz last year, and it seems Seattle is happy with him as well and paid what 50+ mil? STL seemed pretty happy with Peralta last year as they made the NLCS and paid 40+ mil. If Braun was hitting anywhere close to his old self, teams would take him. Maybe they'd negotiate some money off it though to help with the cost at the end.

You could get rid of Braun by forcing him in a package (like what Atlanta did with Upton) trade. If you say, "If you want Lucroy, you have to take Braun." Of course, with $110 million owed him, you'd probably need to include a bunch of cash as well. Another thing would be to swap Braun for another horrible contract, but those are tough to match up at this point.

 

Probably the best thing with Braun would be to just wait at this point. He has no value, but if (and that's a big if at this point) he starts hitting, you could potentially interest someone in him.

[3and2Fastball]

I'd like to see a new GM also, but you are being naive if you really believe that this way of roster construction and direction is just a Melvin plan. Based on many articles over the years, Attanasio clearly has had significant input on free agent signings and setting the overall direction for the from year to year.

 

I don't think that there is any chance that Melvin would be allowed to trade a guy like say Gomez, Garza, Lucroy, etc without first getting permission from Attanasio, much less trade multiple of them and just blow things up. Attanasio will be the main one to decide if a major blow up is allowed, when it can happen, and to what degree. Doug won't be allowed to decide that on his own.

.

 

Unfortunately I think you are correct. And I think Attanasio will hire a new GM, when/if he fires Melvin who will tell him what he wants to hear: that the Brewers can be contenders year in & year out if they just do these few moves or those few moves.

 

The prospective GM's that, in a job interview with Attanasio, tell him "look, the Brewers need to rebuild. Sell off key pieces, build the farm system. Put new minor league instructors in place, change the way we approach free agency etc etc". Those guys won't be hired

[brewcrewdue80]

Anyone on the 25 not names Peralta or Nelson should be on the trading blocks. That's not to say they should trade all of them, but if you get the right offer you take it.

 

We are stuck with Braun. Nobody is gonna take that contract with that baggage.

 

 

Yet Melvin "BJ" Upton was traded to get Craig Kimbrel. Braun isn't that bad.

[danzig6767]

I'd like to see a new GM also, but you are being naive if you really believe that this way of roster construction and direction is just a Melvin plan. Based on many articles over the years, Attanasio clearly has had significant input on free agent signings and setting the overall direction for the from year to year.

Please. This is just one big excuse to give Melvin a pass on the average teams he's thrown together the past few seasons. I have no doubt the Mark A. has say in what goes on but I don't think it's nearly as bad as you make it seem

Then you clearly haven't been paying close enough attention.

 

When the owner has gone about playing a very active role in the signing of pretty much every big ticket free agent signing for awhile now, what then makes you think he'd have been cool with Melvin trading other productive veterans for prospects at the same time he's signing expensive free agents? That makes no sense.

 

Whether it was Suppan, Lohse, Ramirez, Garza, K-Rod, etc there have been articles posted with direct quotes from Attanasio talking about his negotiations with the agents for those players. Quotes about what a great working relationship Attanasio has with Boras.

 

I still remember the Lohse signing. People kept asking Melvin if he was interested in Loshe, but he kept saying he didn't want to lose a draft pick. Then late in spring training Lohse signs. Article comes out how Boras was calling Attanasio directly nearly every day, bypassing right past the GM. Attanasio later talked about how he himself did research on the value of late first round picks being overrated, which contributed to why he signed Lohse.

 

I want nothing more than for Mark to completely clean house, but you are simply being naive about the degree to which Attanasio has factored into the team the Brewers have today and in the past. He hasn't been a quiet behind the scenes puppet either like Herb Kohl was with the Bucks. Attanasio's role has come directly out of his own mouth in interviews plenty of times, not via some second hand innuendo. For whatever reason, that's completely escaped you and it needs to change when the time comes that he does hire a new front office. This isn't a fantasy baseball league.

[paul253]

The prospective GM's that, in a job interview with Attanasio, tell him "look, the Brewers need to rebuild. Sell off key pieces, build the farm system. Put new minor league instructors in place, change the way we approach free agency etc etc". Those guys won't be hired

 

That may change if this season continues to go like it's going. If we are a bottom 6 or 7 team with no in house solutions for next year I don't think anyone could think that we are veteran free agent away from contending. The worst thing that happened to this team was last years hot start. People focus so much on how long the Brewers were in first place but look past the fact after April they only had one winning month and played the rest of the season at 10 games below .500. Last year's team was not a good team. They were in first place for so long because it took St. Louis and Pittsburgh awhile to heat up. I think the writing was on the wall for this team to perform how they've performed so far. Even though I don't think they are as bad the record indicates I can't imagine they are a .500 team this year. And what's there to look forward to? Hey in two or three seasons Arcia and Taylor should be ready? This organization is a mess right now.

[superfly]

There's no point in even floating the idea of Braun getting traded. We are married to him for better or for worse until his contract runs out. Like it or not, he's the "face" of the franchise along with Lucroy. I would be astonished if he was ever traded.

[danzig6767]

We are stuck with Braun. Nobody is gonna take that contract with that baggage.

Yet Melvin "BJ" Upton was traded to get Craig Kimbrel. Braun isn't that bad.

The Upton contract expires in 2017, Braun's contract runs through 2020 with a mutual option in 2021 and i believe some deferred money.

 

We are going to see a number of these 7-8-9-10 year deals handled out become long term albatrosses for teams and it will be interesting to see how many teams simply get stuck with those players and/or are able to eventually move the contracts, but are forced to give up assets for a team to take on the mostly dead money.

[logan82]

- Only a few what I would be called 'sure things' - guys in their prime with extended track records of success (Lucroy, Gomez, Lind, Parra, maybe Garza).

I am still not sold on Gomez being a sure thing. He had 2 good years.

[sveumrules]

Yet Melvin "BJ" Upton was traded to get Craig Kimbrel. Braun isn't that bad.

 

So what you're saying is the Braves traded Melvin "Bossman Junior" Upton to the Braves for Craig Kimbrel? How did they both end up on the Padres then?

[TheCrew07]

I still remember the Lohse signing. People kept asking Melvin if he was interested in Loshe, but he kept saying he didn't want to lose a draft pick. Then late in spring training Lohse signs. Article comes out how Boras was calling Attanasio directly nearly every day, bypassing right past the GM. Attanasio later talked about how he himself did research on the value of late first round picks being overrated, which contributed to why he signed Lohse.

 

I don't recall but the bolded part but if that's true that's just another irritating example of superficial evaluation. Many of the Brewers' trades for MLB talent have included late 1st round picks such as Lawrie, Odorizzi, and Haniger. There is so much reverse justification used in all aspects of baseball it literally drives me crazy.

 

For those interested in dynamic planning and adapting to the ever changing conditions in baseball as well as in life, this is a wonderfully written article on the OODA concept. It's very long, but worth the time it will take to read and comprehend what was written.

 

The Tao of Boyd: How to Master the OODA Loop

 

The crux of Boyd’s case for why uncertainty abounds is that individuals and organizations often look inward and apply familiar mental models that have worked in the past to try to solve new problems. When these old mental models don’t work, they will often keep trying to make them work — maybe if they just use an old strategy with more gusto, things will pan out. But they don’t. Business magnate Charlie Munger calls this tendency to use the familiar even in the face of a changing reality the “man with a hammer syndrome.” You know the old saying: “to the man with only a hammer, everything is a nail.” So it is with folks with one or two mental models to work with. Every problem can be solved with their current way of thinking. And so they keep hammering away, confused and disillusioned that their work isn’t producing any results.

 

These folks never stop to ask, “Maybe I need a different tool?”

[danzig6767]

I still remember the Lohse signing. People kept asking Melvin if he was interested in Loshe, but he kept saying he didn't want to lose a draft pick. Then late in spring training Lohse signs. Article comes out how Boras was calling Attanasio directly nearly every day, bypassing right past the GM. Attanasio later talked about how he himself did research on the value of late first round picks being overrated, which contributed to why he signed Lohse.

 

I don't recall but the bolded part but if that's true that's just another irritating example of superficial evaluation.

He said it while being interviewed either while sitting in the booth or while sitting in his normal seats. In fact, i believe that he mentioned Fanngraphs as his source for coming up with his belief that later first round picks only hit at X percentage, so that made him more comfortable with giving up the draft pick to sign Lohse.

 

I mainly remember it because it caught me off guard listening to Attanasio talk about him researching draft pick valuation via a website like Fangraphs. FWIW though, this was awhile ago and maybe there is a slight chance he mentioned a different site than Fangraphs, but it most certainly was a baseball centric site i had heard of before which he read a study or article on the frequency of how often draft picks after say 20 become quality MLB players.

[brewcrewdue80]

We are stuck with Braun. Nobody is gonna take that contract with that baggage.

Yet Melvin "BJ" Upton was traded to get Craig Kimbrel. Braun isn't that bad.

The Upton contract expires in 2017, Braun's contract runs through 2020 with a mutual option in 2021 and i believe some deferred money.

 

We are going to see a number of these 7-8-9-10 year deals handled out become long term albatrosses for teams and it will be interesting to see how many teams simply get stuck with those players and/or are able to eventually move the contracts, but are forced to give up assets for a team to take on the mostly dead money.

 

I know Braun's contract is for longer duration. Just saying if Upton's contract can be traded(when it was impossible his very first year) At some point Braun's can be too. I don't mean he can be traded this season. But in 2017 or 2018 maybe and that means we aren't stuck with him to 2020/2021.

 

Yet Melvin "BJ" Upton was traded to get Craig Kimbrel. Braun isn't that bad.

 

So what you're saying is the Braves traded Melvin "Bossman Junior" Upton to the Braves for Craig Kimbrel? How did they both end up on the Padres then?

 

No. Sorry. To correctly put it. The Padres took on BJ Upton's contract to acquire Craig Kimbrel. That line was a response to another post. After all the trades this past offseason, no trade is out of the realm of possibility.

[monty57]

The Upton contract expires in 2017, Braun's contract runs through 2020 with a mutual option in 2021 and i believe some deferred money.

 

From Cot's:

 

Ryan Braun rf

8 years/$45M (2008-15)

5 years/$105M (2016-20), plus 2021 mutual option

 

5 years/$105M (2016-20), plus 2021 option

• signed extension with Milwaukee 4/21/11
  $10M signing bonus (paid in 4 equal installments each April 1 from 2012 to 2015)
  16:$19M, 17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout)
  price of option may increase to $20M based on MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove awards (if earned, award escalators are deferred without interest)
  $18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031
  no-trade protection
  

 

8 years/$45M (2008-15)

• signed extension with Milwaukee 5/15/08, replacing 1 year/$0.455M contract for 2008 renewed 3/2/08
  $2.3M signing bonus
  08:$0.455M, 09:$0.745M, 10:$1M, 11:$4M, 12:$6M, 13:$8.5M, 14:$10M, 15:$12M
  may earn additional $6M if Braun qualifies as a Super 2 after 2009 season, increasing salaries to: 10:$3.5M, 11:$5.5M, 12:$7.5M, 13:$9M (did not qualify)
  award bonus: $50,000 for All Star selection
  no-trade clause 2008-11, limited no-trade clause 2012-13 (may block deals to 12 clubs), limited no-trade clause 2014-15 (may block deals to 6 clubs)
  perks: suite for home games
  Braun to donate $25,000 annually to club charity
  placed on restricted list 7/22/13 (PED investigation)
  

 

1 year (2007)

• contract purchased by Milwaukee 5/25/07
  drafted by Milwaukee 2005 (1-5) (Miami, Fla.)
  signed 6/05, $2.45M signing bonus
  

agent: CAA Sports (Nez Balelo)

ML service: 7.129

 

 

So this is the final year of his initial extension, and also the final year of his signing bonus from the second extension. While "on paper" he makes $19M, $19M, $19M, $18M, $16M over the next five seasons, the Brewers (or any team he would be traded to) would pay him $15M, $15M, $15M, $15M, $13M during those seasons. He then gets either a $15M (or $20M if goals met) option year, or gets bought out at $4M. Beyond that, the Brewers (or whoever they would trade him to) will owe him $1.8M per year from 2022 to 2031.

 

In other words, the second extension hasn't even started yet, and whoever is obligated to pay him will be paying for him for 16 more seasons. Going to be kind of hard to trade that contract, especially if he continues to put up subpar numbers.