What Many Brewers Fans May Think, But Dare Not Say (Yet)

[MrTPlush]

Nelson adding a Curveball that he can locate and is Untouchable. He's no longer at best a middle rotation guy with this 3rd true pitch of his. Seriously may be the Best SP on the team now including well over Peralta. Who's never put together that K pitch. As it stands, considering Peralta's lack of one, I think he's becoming more tradeable by the start. Someone will overpay for him in prospects. Now this is an early season reaction comment but, Give it 3months and if Peralta is still unable to K 7batters/9 and is more of a contact grinding pitcher vs Nelson still near or above 9ks/9, I think he's worth putting in trade availability. This is among the plan that with this team losing as it is, being sellers come the begin to end of July. Peralta is worthy of 2 top 100 prospects one being in the top 50 if not close to top 25. One could see a team trading a young SP talent for this proven SP in Peralta. Plus adding some other prospect of need or want for Milw. I'd watch for the Mets or the Royals to make this kind of deal. They have some Pitchers to trade and an offensive prospect to trade as well that would fit the profile where Gaining Peralta for excess talent in their minors. And secretly, there's a part of me that wonders on Pittsburgh or the Cubs making a deal to put them over the top down the stretch. And never sleep on Colorado who if healthy has lethal offense and a young prospect system swimming with talent. Go for it this year and then trade Cargo or Tulo in the offseason to get back what they've given up essentially. Meanwhile they get a Groundball type pitcher to attempt to keep the ball in Coors. What does it mean for Milw's pitching future? If we are selling off players left and right before the deadline Peralta included, you'd think a #3-4 SP would be part of the return. Maybe for next season/cash reasons to make a trade happen. With KC say one of Vargas or Guthrie or Medlen even to get a great prospect and shed a roster/money and player for them. For Colorado a Jorge De LaRosa removal. Expiring type of contracts that have 1yr or 2 left if Milw were to sell off the type of Player Peralta is and Carlos Gomez eventually. You know you hurt the present but the return on talent for the near/not to distant future is better because you took on that player's contract. Which if healthy just so happens to fill a #4/#5 SP roster space which trading Peralta would be an area of concern, moreso than it is today.

 

So you basically call Peralta a #3 or #4 guy, but you think he is worth 2 top 100 prospects and one being nearly top 25? Woah consider me lost on why someone is trading the farm for a middle of the rotation starter. Then my understanding is you want to trade for a Peralta type pitcher on top of it? I just don't get it...

 

I don't seeing the point in trading Peralta. He is cheap considering a pitcher like him would likely command $12mil or so a year. These #3 type starters are making a ton on the open market these days. Peralta is the kind of guy we need to extend.

[brewcrewdue80]

Nelson adding a Curveball that he can locate and is Untouchable. He's no longer at best a middle rotation guy with this 3rd true pitch of his. Seriously may be the Best SP on the team now including well over Peralta. Who's never put together that K pitch. As it stands, considering Peralta's lack of one, I think he's becoming more tradeable by the start. Someone will overpay for him in prospects. Now this is an early season reaction comment but, Give it 3months and if Peralta is still unable to K 7batters/9 and is more of a contact grinding pitcher vs Nelson still near or above 9ks/9, I think he's worth putting in trade availability. This is among the plan that with this team losing as it is, being sellers come the begin to end of July. Peralta is worthy of 2 top 100 prospects one being in the top 50 if not close to top 25. One could see a team trading a young SP talent for this proven SP in Peralta. Plus adding some other prospect of need or want for Milw. I'd watch for the Mets or the Royals to make this kind of deal. They have some Pitchers to trade and an offensive prospect to trade as well that would fit the profile where Gaining Peralta for excess talent in their minors. And secretly, there's a part of me that wonders on Pittsburgh or the Cubs making a deal to put them over the top down the stretch. And never sleep on Colorado who if healthy has lethal offense and a young prospect system swimming with talent. Go for it this year and then trade Cargo or Tulo in the offseason to get back what they've given up essentially. Meanwhile they get a Groundball type pitcher to attempt to keep the ball in Coors. What does it mean for Milw's pitching future? If we are selling off players left and right before the deadline Peralta included, you'd think a #3-4 SP would be part of the return. Maybe for next season/cash reasons to make a trade happen. With KC say one of Vargas or Guthrie or Medlen even to get a great prospect and shed a roster/money and player for them. For Colorado a Jorge De LaRosa removal. Expiring type of contracts that have 1yr or 2 left if Milw were to sell off the type of Player Peralta is and Carlos Gomez eventually. You know you hurt the present but the return on talent for the near/not to distant future is better because you took on that player's contract. Which if healthy just so happens to fill a #4/#5 SP roster space which trading Peralta would be an area of concern, moreso than it is today.

 

So you basically call Peralta a #3 or #4 guy, but you think he is worth 2 top 100 prospects and one being nearly top 25? Woah consider me lost on why someone is trading the farm for a middle of the rotation starter. Then my understanding is you want to trade for a Peralta type pitcher on top of it? I just don't get it...

 

I don't seeing the point in trading Peralta. He is cheap considering a pitcher like him would likely command $12mil or so a year. These #3 type starters are making a ton on the open market these days. Peralta is the kind of guy we need to extend.

 

Peralta being a workhorse #3 and cheap is worth a top 25 or top 40 prospect. And a top 100prospect because He's proven and prospects aren't. Sorry I meant 2 players in the top 100 overall, but one being a top 25-40prospect. Jaimeson Taillon of Pittsburgh would be a great example. He was almost ML ready in 2013 and a top 15prospect at the time. Now he's going to be coming back from TJ fallen in the ranks and Pittsburgh's ambitions for a Playoff run that a year+ago likely included Cole+Taillon leading the way. Take Peralta for Taillon since Peralta is ready and still cheap/affordable for Pittsburgh. That line of thinking.

 

How's Daniel Norris doing for Toronto? 3games 13.1 IP 6+ERA as of now. Toronto has Aaron Sanchez too. All that offense they have being wasted on poor pitching come mid-season. Take a Peralta for a Norris or Sanchez+ that top 100 prospect. They get the results today vs in the future. Brewers get the future not needing the results today. Peralta being a #3 SP but for 525k and then Arb? That's why he's worthy of a top 40 prospect from a team. You're looking at according to Fangraphs 9 and 12million in value his 2 seasons. So at a surplus of 8-11mil savings for a team he's worthy of that kind of 1st rd type draft pick return.

 

The Brewers don't have to trade him, but if they did that's where the argument is coming. You're getting a 10+mil dollar value SP for a few hundred grand this season for a Playoff run. Vs trying to rely on a Rookie or a lame #4/5SP for your rotation. Think kinda like the Marcum deal....And Peralta has better stats, is cheaper with another year of team control. Brett Lawrie type plus.

[SoupTown]

Why do we need to wait until mid season?

[Ennder]

I love the way Ennder thinks he's so much smarter than the rest of us and doesn't even try to hide it.

 

not sure I agree but glad you understand me. Seriously this team was so insanely hard to project that anyone who thinks they could is a fool whether they were positive or negative. This isn't homerism, it is just really easy logic. A team like the Cardinals have a lot of players who have done the same thing for multiple years in a row so you have some expectations, the Brewers are loaded with players who have had wildly different seasons the past 3 years so there is no easy way to know what they are going to do. Doesn't take a genius to come to my conclusion.

[logan82]

I am not sure where the Rockies were expected to be but even at the peak expectations for the Brewers we were probably not as good as either the Pirates or Cardinals and about even with the Reds. This first month has sucked but we played some really tough teams all month so far. A losing record wouldn't have been shocking. A realistic expectation would have been a few more wins so we are not to far off. Maybe 2 or 3 more wins. 5-7 vs 2-10.

[Boomer5]

Not much to get excited about here, which is pretty obvious.

 

The good:

 

Nelson, Peralta, Segura

 

Nelson's curve is darn near Sheets like. Wily is a solid #2/3 type. Jean looks to be back. Luc has been terrible but I am confident he will be back to normal soon enough. Lind can hit. So ends the guys I'd want to keep around for next year. More will be back but really who cares?

 

The bad:

 

Braun, ARam, Braun, Lohse, Braun, Garza, Braun, and Braun.

 

I do expect Luc to bounce back, but everyone else slumping I have a feeling they will stay bad, not historically bad, but they wont be of much value going forward. I have a very bad feeling that Carlos will just be hurt too much to realize the value we need to improve as a team or be a high end trade asset. This is a really sorry bunch overall. Braun is now a singles hitter and yes, PED's were the reason he earned that contract in the first place. He is a fraud. Please understand I was about his biggest fan early on when he and Prince were the franchise.

 

I dont think its too early to look at the number 1 pick in 2016 with this bunch.

 

I am not nearly as much of a RR hater as many here. Yes he makes goofy decisions, but all managers do over the course of a full season. I am much more focused on Doug and the player evaluation and development problems. Our problems start with the horrendous drafts year after year. Perhaps things are changing after going after high ceiling guys in 2014??

[monty57]

Since 2012, this has been an extremely streaky .500 team. The difference between last year and the previous two years is the timing of the hot streak. Last year it was early, so they stayed in first for much of the season. The prior two years, it was late so the team had already been "sellers" at the deadline.

 

The interesting thing is seeing the effect on fan perception. After 2012 and 2013, there was optimism because of the late-season surge. We heard "If only we hadn't traded Greinke (or insert other name)," and "If we just add {insert player/position here}, then we'll be a contender." The early season hot streak last year led to post-season anger when the team ended up with essentially the same record as the two previous seasons, and feelings such as "we need to get rid of the guys who aren't hustling/clubhouse cancers." The key factor to remember that ultimately it is the fans' money that pays the bills.

 

I'm now interested in seeing how this season plays out. After last season, a slow start is the last thing this team wanted. To me, it looks like Attanasio makes moves driven by ticket sales as much as anything else, and with the fan base already angry over last season, I could see fans already tuning out a couple of weeks into the season. Meanwhile, the team is sporting a record payroll. I don't know the details of how much revenue they get from attendee, nor do I know how much of that is profit. But I think $75 in revenue from attendee (ticket, parking, concessions, etc) is a decent enough guess for sake of illustration. Therefore, every 100,000 people who don't attend who the team projected would attend would "cost" the team around $7,500,000 in expected revenue. So, prior to the season, they projected certain attendance, and put together a team with a record payroll of $104,237,000. They probably gave themselves a "cushion" of a few million. Last year's hot start added a couple hundred thousand tickets sold (from around 2.5MM to 2.7MM year-over-year), but what if this year's terrible start, coupled with last year's collapse cost the team a couple hundred thousand (let's say to 2.3MM - they don't get the surge in sales they got last year, and lose some of the fans who showed up in 2013). That could be around $28,000,000 in expected revenue that never materialized. That money is guaranteed, so it has to come from somewhere, so if the salaries aren't traded, the owners either have to borrow money or take it out of their own or the team's pockets (assuming the team has a large cash reserve). The logical choice in this scenario is to "salary dump" some players.

 

If the ownership group chooses to trade players for fear of losing tens of millions of dollars. The seemingly "easy money" to get rid of (high priced guys in their final season) is Lohse ($11,000,000 salary, 0-3, 10.34 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 4 HR in 15 IP), Broxton ($9,000,000 salary plus guaranteed $2,000,000 in 2016, 5 games, 4.2 IP, 9.64 ERA, 1.50 WHIP), Ramirez ($14,000,000 salary, .140 Avg / .140 OBP / .186 SLG / .326 OPS), and Parra ($6,237,000 salary, .185 avg / .214 OBP / .296 SLG / .511 OPS). Not really increasing their trade value, are they? Unless they turn things around, the Brewers won't be able to get anyone to take on any of these contracts.

 

If the owners see a sinking ship and become worried about losing tons of money, and they can't salary dump the above-named players, what are their options? No one's taking Braun or Garza, so you're really looking at Gomez ($8MM 2015, $9MM 2016), Lind ($7.5MM 2015, option for 2016), Cotts ($3MM 2015), and Lucroy ($3.4MM 2015, $4.35MM 2016, 2017 option) as possible trading chips that could save them some money. No one wanted to sign K-Rod prior to the season, so I doubt they'd take him now.

 

There is talent on the roster, and the team will get better. Given a full season with no moves made, I still say this team would end up in the neighborhood of .500. The question is whether the hot streak will be too little, too late. If the team doesn't heat up before fans lose interest (i.e. stop buying tickets), then the sell off could get ugly. I've been all for trading away some veterans for young talent to "reload" the team each year, but a scenario where we can't trade the big contracts we'd like to get rid of and are forced to dump some good contracts we'd prefer to keep probably wouldn't end well.

 

I really hope this team at least becomes watchable soon, and I really hope that some of Lohse, Ramirez, Parra and Broxton heat up and at least make themselves "salary dump" candidates. Otherwise, we'll probably at least see Gomez traded this season, and will probably have a significantly lower payroll next year in order for the owners to recoup their losses, so the holes in the roster will be hard to fill.

 

Note that I don't expect this scenario to play out, but it could if the team continues it's horrible play for too much longer.

[bill hAll Star]

Agree with most of the above post, but I do think that somebody would take on Garza, assuming he's pitching up to his standards. $12.5 million/year (even for several years) for a veteran, average/above average pitcher is a good value to most teams.

[fondybrewfan]

When none of your top 4 hitters are OPS'ing more than 700 and a couple are under .500 you know you are in a terrible slump. The fact that Braun has 0 extra base hits and one stupid walk through the first 2 weeks of the season is absolutely mind boggling.

 

The first 2 weeks have been about the biggest disaster anyone could have expected and maybe even worse. The good news is that it is only 2 weeks. They need to get a series win under their belt and then start to chip away at .500

[Boomer5]

Agree with most of the above post, but I do think that somebody would take on Garza, assuming he's pitching up to his standards. $12.5 million/year (even for several years) for a veteran, average/above average pitcher is a good team to most teams.

 

If Garza can string together 3-5 good starts, they need to actively shop him for young assets. I agree he can have some trade value if he turns it around.

[Outlander]

I don't think the attendance decline is as guaranteed as some here want to believe. Yesterday afternoon I decided to pick up tickets to my nephew's birthday and there was a long line and it was even roped off. People are still buying tickets, at least right now.

[MrTPlush]

So I see some are starting to throw Garza in the gutter after just 3 starts.

[bill hAll Star]

So I see some are starting to throw Garza in the gutter after just 3 starts.

 

Not at all. However, if you're looking to rebuild, he has good value to teams and is a good chip to trade.

[Boomer5]

So I see some are starting to throw Garza in the gutter after just 3 starts.

 

Not at all. However, if you're looking to rebuild, he has good value to teams and is a good chip to trade.

 

Yes. Garza and his relatively modest contract can be a decent asset to build up the farm system. Few on the Brewers fall into that category.

[pacopete4]

When none of your top 4 hitters are OPS'ing more than 700 and a couple are under .500 you know you are in a terrible slump. The fact that Braun has 0 extra base hits and one stupid walk through the first 2 weeks of the season is absolutely mind boggling.

 

The first 2 weeks have been about the biggest disaster anyone could have expected and maybe even worse. The good news is that it is only 2 weeks. They need to get a series win under their belt and then start to chip away at .500

 

 

Hey, he has a HBP too!

[torts]

Loshe is more likely to be traded than Garza

[torts]

reason for that being the last year of the Loshe deal, and the contract language in the Garza deal...

 

4 years/$50M (2014-17), plus 2018 vesting option

signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 1/27/14

14-17:$12.5M annually. 18: vesting/club option

2018 option vests at $13M if Garza 1) has 110 starts in 2014-17, 2) has 115 innings in 2017 and 3) is not on the disabled list at end of 2017 season

 

whilt that $13 mil isnt that much in 2018 expected contract, for any team thinking about taking him on they have to assume him hitting those numbers (27 starts on avg over contract). 115 innings is a given if he hits 27 starts. When was the last time a starting pitcher got traded with 2+ years left on his contract? honest question

[FVBrewerFan]

Anyone on the 25 not names Peralta or Nelson should be on the trading blocks. That's not to say they should trade all of them, but if you get the right offer you take it.

[Boomer5]

Do the Brewers management have the stomach for an Astros style (less the disastrous 2014 draft) rebuild?

 

Most of the team is below replacement level, so by definition it shouldn't be tough to get to decent and build around Luc (who will be fine),Nelson and Peralta

[reillymcshane]

Do the Brewers management have the stomach for an Astros style (less the disastrous 2014 draft) rebuild?

 

They've never indicated so. It's been a 'rebuild and contend at the same time' approach. But I don't think things ever looked this bad.

[bill hAll Star]

Loshe is more likely to be traded than Garza

 

Absolutely. That's not a surprise and Mark runs the team, we don't. If the team is 10+ games back near the trade deadline, assuming Lohse isn't injured, I'd put the chances of a trade of Lohse at 99.9%.

 

That said, barring a miracle, the best we'd get for Lohse is a Scooter-type prospect. That is the absolute best IMO and more likely we get an OK reliever prospect with red flags or something. That also involves Lohse rounding back into form and quelling the fears that he may be getting too old to be his "#3 starter" self.

 

If the team really wants to rebuild, they should sell guys with actual value which Garza fits.

 

Realistically what would I expect with Mark at the deadline and we're 10+ games back? Lohse, A-Ram, Broxton, maybe Lind dealt for a bunch of guys that project to be replacement-level players.

 

Personally, I'd be all over trading Gomez/Luc if they are anywhere near form and the team is out of it. Gomez I would give a sliver of a chance to Mark allowing to be traded if 10+ games out, Luc near 0%. I've had this feeling since the middle of last season, that Luc, not an absolute stud prospect but very good hitter could get worn out by his next contract. Gomez isn't going to age well either and if we are rebuilding, he is not of much use to his final contract year next year.

[Lee16]

I just read that the manager for the Marlins is "on the hotseat" after the team is off to a 3-10 start and seemingly has no fire in them. He also received a contract extension just a few months ago. I guess that just makes me wonder even more why Roenicke, who presided over one of the biggest late season collapses in history last year, and has guided the current team to the worst start in franchise history, just continues to skate on by with seemingly no pressure on him at all. No accountability from the ownership, no rumors at all about how he may have to get his *bleep* together, just nothing. I just don't understand why he still has a job. Maybe I am just missing all the masterful strategic decisions he nails during games.

[DannoMac21]

They've never indicated so. It's been a 'rebuild and contend at the same time' approach. But I don't think things ever looked this bad.

 

Are we sure Herb Kohl doesn't have a majority stake in this team?

[brewcrewdue80]

I just read that the manager for the Marlins is "on the hotseat" after the team is off to a 3-10 start and seemingly has no fire in them. He also received a contract extension just a few months ago. I guess that just makes me wonder even more why Roenicke, who presided over one of the biggest late season collapses in history last year, and has guided the current team to the worst start in franchise history, just continues to skate on by with seemingly no pressure on him at all. No accountability from the ownership, no rumors at all about how he may have to get his *bleep* together, just nothing. I just don't understand why he still has a job. Maybe I am just missing all the masterful strategic decisions he nails during games.

 

 

Whole different scenario. The Marlins gave out Franchise contracts to Stanton and Yelich failed on Ozuna(which I think is better for them) Made trades to get Gordon and Haren and Latos plus some more I'm sure. They are a franchise with public scrutiny and this was to be a resurgence to drive ticket sales that are bleak to begin with. Now with this start, a roof that allowed rain to fall because of how slow it is, it's not encouraging to be a bandwagon fan and see some games, buying some tickets. So yeah, Showing that the Front Office is willing to make a move might keep the bandwagon/casual fan interested in the team....Especially because Jose Fernandez will appear for them some time in June. There isn't a fanbase here in Miami like in Milwaukee. I still believe Loria will sell the franchise when he can, but it's value is going to depend on the fans filling the seats. They have a young exciting core of players, and if they draw less than the first few years of the stadium this year and next, I can't fathom, how that franchise value doesn't dwindle. Loria is probably shooting for 650mil maybe 700mil on a sale. I think I read it's valued around 550 as of last year? You lose fans and it turns to 450mil vs gaining fans and hitting that 650/700 range? It's all strategy for them. Rather than the highlights be of Soccer for 3mins and then a 30sec blip about the Marlins losing, It'll be 3min of Marlins coach fired, and a daily dose of another 2-3min daily of the search for a new manager leading the way.

 

Meanwhile, one hopes the team wins with being in the news to keep interest in them vs being thrown on the backburner.

[paul253]

Melvin needs to go. He's done an alright job getting us out of the doldrums and even got us into the playoffs a few times with acquisitions of ace pitchers. But overall his performance results in a team that hovers around .500. Good compared to what the team did for most of the 90's. But not where they should be. He's an old timer who is stuck in his ways and does not possess that innovative thinking that allows a small market team to compete an an annual basis. Where he should be recycling talent he instead hangs onto talent as long as he can as tries to squeeze as much out of it as he can get. This results in a lineup full of players who are expensive and on the downside of their careers vs cheap and yet to reach full potential. Positions of need are either flat out ignored or filled with one year stop gap solutions. Depth has been an issue for years and never seems to be addressed. We have zero depth at first base. Zero depth at third base. Zero depth in the rotation. Zero depth at catcher. And this is a roster that Melvin thought would compete this year? I don't think he really sees, or at the very least won't acknowledge, how bleak this franchise is right now. Literally the brightest spot in the organization came from a bunch of high schoolers drafter last June, along with a few pieces from previous drafts though pitching is still a major concern. If Melvin doesn't do something radical, and his history says he won't, the team could be one of the worst in baseball over the next 2-3 years.