What Many Brewers Fans May Think, But Dare Not Say (Yet)

[MrTPlush]

This front office is done, stick a fork in 'em and send Roenicke back to being a bench coach somewhere.

 

They had their shot in 2011 but the game has changed since then and they haven't adjusted.

I'm all for moving on from Melvin, but Attanasio is a big part of that front office, free agent signings, and direction the team chooses from year to year. Unless that changes, bringing in a new GM can only have so much impact if the owner also wants to have a quasi-GM role himself.

 

I have liked Doug Melvin and the majority of his decisions, but I really think they should move on if they go into a mini rebuild. I just don't see the point of having a GM who is soon to retire controlling your rebuild years.

[owbc]

At this point it isn't an overreaction to a few games. This is essentially the same roster as last year, the team that went 33-48 in the second half of the year.

 

Yes, there are 159 games to go. They will string some wins together. The season's definitely not over yet. But people on this forum have been warning since 2011 that the day of reckoning would eventually come for trading away prospects--and I'm afraid it's almost here.

[pacopete4]

What prospects did we trade away that would have this team in a better position today? Brett Lawrie sure turned out awesome.

[TURBO]

Still too early to say Lawrie is a bust in my opinion...

[Boomer5]

At this point it isn't an overreaction to a few games. This is essentially the same roster as last year, the team that went 33-48 in the second half of the year.

 

Yes, there are 159 games to go. They will string some wins together. The season's definitely not over yet. But people on this forum have been warning since 2011 that the day of reckoning would eventually come for trading away prospects--and I'm afraid it's almost here.

 

Well Im not sure adding Cain, Escobar, Jake O, and Lawrie would matter all that much, and you'd take away 2011.

 

The issue is Braun and Segura not being who we thought/hoped they were for various reasons. No team will win when their franchise player and prized young shortstop dont perform to anywhere near expected levels.

 

Throw in a mediocre or underperforming starting rotation and a bullpen that is inconsistent and you have 70-75 win team.

[Boomer5]

Still too early to say Lawrie is a bust in my opinion...

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml

 

Let's call him what he was in 2011: A PED guy and move on.

[Boomer5]

Exactly. Let's not get into a straw-man argument. Everyone who has posted understands that 3 games mean very little. I get that Lucroy won't hit .000 this year. We're simply responding to a post that happened to be posted in the midst of the first series, it's not like we all had high expectations, and came crashing down after 3 games.

 

Thing is, I don't even care if they have a bad season. What I DO care about I bringing ARam back, and some other moves that could have been made, or not made, to put this team in a better position for 2016. They either needed to keep Yo and improve in other areas, or make it a rebuilding year. Instead, they are stuck in the middle.

 

I'm not even talking about tearing it down to the ground, just make a few moves that would have saved a lot of money and got some return back. I hope I'm wrong, but I just a team where the offense will come and go, generally be ok. But a pitching staff that could absolutely implode.

 

I agree. This team has a Herb Kohl lead feel to it.

[TURBO]

Still too early to say Lawrie is a bust in my opinion...

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml

 

Let's call him what he was in 2011: A PED guy and move on.

 

You can call it what you want, but the guy is still young, and giving him a label, positive or negative, is just too early in his career................in my opinion.

[Boomer5]

Still too early to say Lawrie is a bust in my opinion...

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml

 

Let's call him what he was in 2011: A PED guy and move on.

 

You can call it what you want, but the guy is still young, and giving him a label, positive or negative, is just too early in his career................in my opinion.

 

Throwing out 2011, he has about 1200 ABs to show what he is, a light hitting 3B. I guess given the lack of quality 3B, he has some value, but I don't lose sleep he is gone.

 

What I do agree with is I think the package for him at the time of the trade was really low. I think I read quite a few teams had no idea he was even on the market?

[monty57]

Well Im not sure adding Cain, Escobar, Jake O, and Lawrie would matter all that much, and you'd take away 2011.

 

The big "turning point" decision was to not trade Fielder and Hart, but instead trade prospects for Greinke and Marcum. Yes, Melvin made an "effort" to trade Fielder, but demanding two young, MLB proven pitchers was unrealistic from the start. Had he asked for a package of prospects, he could have received a king's ransom, as is "proven" by the fact that Fielder was worth a $200MM contract the following offseason. If someone would pay that, someone would give up prospects for him. So, the question (and there is no knowable answer, it's all theoretical) is where would we be now if we had traded Fielder and Hart for a mountain of prospect talent and still had the prospects we traded away. We would not have had the 2011 we had, but we'd probably be better off today.

 

There's a lot more, but I don't want to go too far down that path right now. It's still early in the season, and the Brewers still have talent on the roster. Let's see what happens this year. A playoff run will probably lead to some type of rebuild when we lose Lohse, Ramirez, Parra and Broxton, with Gomez going into his final season and probably give up some talent when we "buy" midseason." Meanwhile a slow start could lead to a selloff that could re-stock the farm, helping future years. A lot could happen, so let's see how we play in the next 22 games against division rivals.

[Boomer5]

Well Im not sure adding Cain, Escobar, Jake O, and Lawrie would matter all that much, and you'd take away 2011.

 

The big "turning point" decision was to not trade Fielder and Hart, but instead trade prospects for Greinke and Marcum. Yes, Melvin made an "effort" to trade Fielder, but demanding two young, MLB proven pitchers was unrealistic from the start. Had he asked for a package of prospects, he could have received a king's ransom, as is "proven" by the fact that Fielder was worth a $200MM contract the following offseason. If someone would pay that, someone would give up prospects for him. So, the question (and there is no knowable answer, it's all theoretical) is where would we be now if we had traded Fielder and Hart for a mountain of prospect talent and still had the prospects we traded away. We would not have had the 2011 we had, but we'd probably be better off today.

 

There's a lot more, but I don't want to go too far down that path right now. It's still early in the season, and the Brewers still have talent on the roster. Let's see what happens this year. A playoff run will probably lead to some type of rebuild when we lose Lohse, Ramirez, Parra and Broxton, with Gomez going into his final season and probably give up some talent when we "buy" midseason." Meanwhile a slow start could lead to a selloff that could re-stock the farm, helping future years. A lot could happen, so let's see how we play in the next 22 games against division rivals.

 

I can't disagree that Fielder would have brought back a game changing package of prospects in theory. Had they not made the move for Grienke and Marcum they would have traded Fielder and we would have had all of those players now.

 

But...that's not the teams DNA back then. They were and likely are a Herb Kohl style of team. You can see it in the trades they made those days and the players they drafted. High floor, low ceiling types.

 

Maybe a tanking type season, like this can turn out to become, will be the driver that will force that change. We already see some transition in the way they now draft, and the Rangers trade for young prospects all represent a departure. Brining back Aram to me was more about a complete lack of 3B options rather than a go for it mentality.

 

I can see a big Gomez trade in July if this team isnt in the hunt.

[DocLuna7]

Well Im not sure adding Cain, Escobar, Jake O, and Lawrie would matter all that much, and you'd take away 2011.

 

The big "turning point" decision was to not trade Fielder and Hart, but instead trade prospects for Greinke and Marcum. Yes, Melvin made an "effort" to trade Fielder, but demanding two young, MLB proven pitchers was unrealistic from the start. Had he asked for a package of prospects, he could have received a king's ransom, as is "proven" by the fact that Fielder was worth a $200MM contract the following offseason. If someone would pay that, someone would give up prospects for him. So, the question (and there is no knowable answer, it's all theoretical) is where would we be now if we had traded Fielder and Hart for a mountain of prospect talent and still had the prospects we traded away. We would not have had the 2011 we had, but we'd probably be better off today.

 

There's a lot more, but I don't want to go too far down that path right now. It's still early in the season, and the Brewers still have talent on the roster. Let's see what happens this year. A playoff run will probably lead to some type of rebuild when we lose Lohse, Ramirez, Parra and Broxton, with Gomez going into his final season and probably give up some talent when we "buy" midseason." Meanwhile a slow start could lead to a selloff that could re-stock the farm, helping future years. A lot could happen, so let's see how we play in the next 22 games against division rivals.

 

I don't think we need to rehash the entire argument, but I wouldn't trade 2011 for anything. Yes, we fell short. But it is also true that we had an absolutely legitimate chance to win the World Series for the first time ever in franchise history that year. That it didn't happen is disappointing. That the Cardinals got hot at the right time is infuriating. That we had the talent to do it in my opinion is also very legitimate. There is no way that happens without Prince and Corey that season, and for an organization that has four post-season showings in 45 years you need to take the shots you get.

[monty57]

Brining back Aram to me was more about a complete lack of 3B options rather than a go for it mentality.

 

I think they misread the situation. They thought he still wanted to play a few seasons and would seek a multi-year deal, giving them a draft pick. He was ready to retire, but gladly accepted a farewell tour for $14,000,000. Once he exercised his option, they were kind of stuck. Without Ramirez, they could have justified punting on the season, but with him they had to "go for it," or they would have wasted the money they're paying him and upset the fans in the process.

 

We already see some transition in the way they now draft, and the Rangers trade for young prospects all represent a departure.

 

I agree. Lind seems to be a pretty good pickup for little cost, and I like the Gallardo trade. Just my opinion, but I think Melvin realized a few years ago that they needed to change tack, but Attanasio is just now coming to that conclusion. They still have the trade chips to bring in some good young talent, which is why I think this is a pivotal season. They either make one last playoff run, or they sell a lot of talent to bring in a youth movement. Lohse, Parra, Ramirez and Broxton are no-brainer trades. The key will be whether they go "all in" and test the waters on Gomez if they are out of it.

[monty57]

I don't think we need to rehash the entire argument, but I wouldn't trade 2011 for anything. Yes, we fell short. But it is also true that we had an absolutely legitimate chance to win the World Series for the first time ever in franchise history that year. That it didn't happen is disappointing. That the Cardinals got hot at the right time is infuriating. That we had the talent to do it in my opinion is also very legitimate. There is no way that happens without Prince and Corey that season, and for an organization that has four post-season showings in 45 years you need to take the shots you get.

 

Yeah, I can see the reasoning on both sides, and I think most fans are on your side. I just like to point out that there is more to the "where we could be" side than who we traded away. 2011 was a lot of fun and most people think it was worth it, but making the moves they did made an eventual rebuild inevitable. We've just been delaying this inevitability for a few seasons, and my worry is that the longer it drags out the deeper the rebuild will need to be. That's been my biggest concern for the last few seasons. Extending Gomez and Lucroy when he did turned out to be phenomenal moves by Melvin, and are really the reason we haven't been doormats for the past few seasons, but if we don't capitalize and trade them before they leave for free agency, I don't think we'll get that lucky again. The question is really just "when?"

[bjkrautk]

 

Without Ramirez, they could have justified punting on the season, but with him they had to "go for it," or they would have wasted the money they're paying him and upset the fans in the process.

 

What part of our history with Mark A. tells you that "punting on the season" was ever going to be an option?

[RobDeer 45]

Does tanking in Baseball really help? I feel like you need a consistent approach to drafting and developing talent. I just don't think we've been good at that for awhile. I'm all for trading away our older guys now, and going for something in a few years, but I'm also realistic that not too many teams will want our garbage. Unless a team is desperate, and ARam or Broxton or KRod are playing out of their minds, we won't get much if anything.

 

I'd hate to see Gomez go, but I would do it. I'd also trade Braun if he starts playing well. He's always going to be an injury waiting to happen and it will only get worse as the years go by and he doesn't have the extra "juice" in him. How long is he signed through?

[adambr2]

Does tanking in Baseball really help? I feel like you need a consistent approach to drafting and developing talent. I just don't think we've been good at that for awhile. I'm all for trading away our older guys now, and going for something in a few years, but I'm also realistic that not too many teams will want our garbage. Unless a team is desperate, and ARam or Broxton or KRod are playing out of their minds, we won't get much if anything.

 

I'd hate to see Gomez go, but I would do it. I'd also trade Braun if he starts playing well. He's always going to be an injury waiting to happen and it will only get worse as the years go by and he doesn't have the extra "juice" in him. How long is he signed through?

 

He's signed through 2020. This would have been the last year of his original 8 year contract. In retrospect, I would think we probably wish this was the last year. Braun's eagerness to sign a 9 figure contract and guarantee his salary for the next 10 years (basically his entire career) when he was 28 looks a lot different now in light of his PED use.

[Boomer5]

Does tanking in Baseball really help? I feel like you need a consistent approach to drafting and developing talent. I just don't think we've been good at that for awhile. I'm all for trading away our older guys now, and going for something in a few years, but I'm also realistic that not too many teams will want our garbage. Unless a team is desperate, and ARam or Broxton or KRod are playing out of their minds, we won't get much if anything.

 

I'd hate to see Gomez go, but I would do it. I'd also trade Braun if he starts playing well. He's always going to be an injury waiting to happen and it will only get worse as the years go by and he doesn't have the extra "juice" in him. How long is he signed through?

 

I can't see anyone trading for Braun, but if he can get some sort of mini hot streak and some desperate team is willing, Id put the trigger yesterday. I want that contract relative to what I assume is his ongoing performance off the team.

[reillymcshane]

Does tanking in Baseball really help? I feel like you need a consistent approach to drafting and developing talent.

One 'good' thing about tanking is getting top 10 (and top 5) draft picks. History has shown that the higher the pick, the better chance of landing an impact player.

 

Taking a 15 year span - 1996-2010 - here's the number of players who have produced 10+ WAR for their career according to Baseball Reference:

 

1-10 picks: 45

11-20 picks: 30

21-30 picks: 20

Supplemental picks: 13

 

It goes to show how hard it is to draft quality players. Out of 150 top 10 picks, less than 1/3 have produced 10 or more WAR (although many players still have the chance to accomplish this).

 

Some of our best players over the last 10-15 years - Fielder, Braun, Weeks and Sheets - were all Top 10 picks.

 

Again, you still have to nail the picks. And you have to find guys in other ways. I think St. Louis has done that really well. They rarely have top picks, but have succeeded (as you said, by having a consistent approach to drafting and developing guys).

[superfly]

Still too early to say Lawrie is a bust in my opinion...

 

Speaking of Brett Lawrie, did you see his excellent night a couple days ago? Struck out 4 times on a grand total of 12 pitches. He's a bust and end of story.

[Invader3K]

Still too early to say Lawrie is a bust in my opinion...

 

Speaking of Brett Lawrie, did you see his excellent night a couple days ago? Struck out 4 times on a grand total of 12 pitches. He's a bust and end of story.

 

He could turn things around and still have an OK career, but I don't think he's ever going to end up being a guy we regret dealing.

[adambr2]

Still too early to say Lawrie is a bust in my opinion...

 

Speaking of Brett Lawrie, did you see his excellent night a couple days ago? Struck out 4 times on a grand total of 12 pitches. He's a bust and end of story.

 

Lawrie isn't a bust. When healthy he's at worst a productive, league average starting infielder. He's not a star at this point in his career, but he's nowhere near a bust.

[TURBO]

Still too early to say Lawrie is a bust in my opinion...

 

Speaking of Brett Lawrie, did you see his excellent night a couple days ago? Struck out 4 times on a grand total of 12 pitches. He's a bust and end of story.

 

So you are judging him on one night of play?

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying he is or isn't a bust, just saying I don't think he can be labeled just yet.

 

And since when is stating an opinion like "He's a bust and end of story" allowed to be posted as fact?

[adambr2]

35% of first round picks never even make it to the big show. Lawrie was the 16th overall pick, so he was no slam dunk to ever make it.

 

He was immature in his time here and didn't exactly leave Milwaukee gracefully. Still, calling a 25 year old infielder who has averaged about 3 WAR a year in his 21-25 year old seasons a 'bust' simply because he didn't sustain the ridiculous pace that he started on when he entered the league, is neither a fair nor accurate assessment of their career.

[3and2Fastball]

I'm thinking the Brewers will have a Top 10 Pick in 2016, maybe even Top 5. They are truly that bad (in my opinion)