What Many Brewers Fans May Think, But Dare Not Say (Yet)

[Warning Track Power]

I think this article assumes the worst for the Brewers, meaning the following:

 

*Braun is done as a superstar and is merely average

*Ramirez is done. Period.

*Gomez reverts to the pre-2013 Gomez

*Segura is who he has been for the past year and a half

*Scooter cannot hit LHP and hits .260 as a full time player

*Lind cannot stay healthy

*Lohse is done. Period.

*Fiers is a fluke

*Nelson is not ready to be an everyday #5

 

All of those things could easily be true. It really wouldn't be shocking if they were. I hope none are true but I think at least half probably are. It is really easy seeing the Brewers win between 70 and 85 games.

The bolded statements above are the ones I have the most fear of being true in 2015. If those prove to be true, I see the Brewers in the 75-77 win range. If, like you said, all are true, then they are a 70 win team. If none are true, the Brewers are contenders in 2015 and legitimate threats to win the NL Central as I think mid-80s win total will win the Central this year.

[Outlander]

Looking at that list Gomez reverting is the least likely to happen but I would go far as to say every other one is more likely to happen than not happen.

[reillymcshane]

Laugh out Loud. And what if Jake Arrieta isn't the SP he was last season. Kyle Hendriks performs as bad as Jimmy Nelson is being concerned? After Jon Lester, doesn't that make the Cubs a 67 win team too?

 

I think there's a lot of reasons to be skeptical of Chicago, but they look to be trending in a positive direction. They won 73 games last year, but they have made a lot off season moves, including adding Lester, Fowler and Montero. They will have a full season of Solar, and waiting in the wings is Bryant. Personally, I think that because of the additions the club made during the offseason, plus the expected maturation of younger players, I see them as a .500ish team. But I won't be shocked if they win less than that. Young players are unpredictable - even highly touted ones. Still, I think it will take several major issues to arise for the team win only 67 games. Not impossible, but unlikely.

[Boomer5]

I think this article assumes the worst for the Brewers, meaning the following:

 

*Braun is done as a superstar and is merely average

*Ramirez is done. Period.

*Gomez reverts to the pre-2013 Gomez

*Segura is who he has been for the past year and a half

*Scooter cannot hit LHP and hits .260 as a full time player

*Lind cannot stay healthy

*Lohse is done. Period.

*Fiers is a fluke

*Nelson is not ready to be an everyday #5

 

All of these things occur and yes the Brewers are a 65-70 win team. The article is correct in stating that there is no real depth. If Jimenez, Clark or Rogers have to play for an extended period for an injured Ramirez or Lind, or we see a ton of a Schafer-Gomez-Parra OF then sure. But I think this article is a worst case scenario, gloom and doom piece.

 

Here are my thoughts:

 

*Braun is done as a superstar and is merely average: You'd be delusional to think he is a superstar anymore

*Ramirez is done. Period: No, he can still hit, but is a 120 game guy now.

*Gomez reverts to the pre-2013 Gomez: No, he is a star and I'd love to see him traded for a huge package

*Segura is who he has been for the past year and a half: I hope he is still a talent, but he needs to turn it around

*Scooter cannot hit LHP and hits .260 as a full time player: I think he is Jim Gantner and he will be fine.

*Lind cannot stay healthy: See Ramirez

*Lohse is done. Period.: No, he will be a gritty vet who gets it done. I think this is his last year of any kind of ability though

*Fiers is a fluke: No, I think he is a legit #4

*Nelson is not ready to be an everyday #5: Id be shocked if he isnt a legit #5.

[3and2Fastball]

I will be shocked if this Brewers team is any good at all this year.

 

I sincerely believe that the game of MLB Baseball has completely passed the Brewers front office by, in terms of the following:

 

You need a lot of players who will take quality at-bats, take some pitches, move runners over, get some walks. The free-swingin' Brewers have very little of that. Aquiring Adam Lind was a big step in the right direction.

 

You need a ton of great young pitching. The Brewers have Wily Peralta and that is it. Lohse & Garza are OK # 3/# 4 starters at this point and far from young. Fiers is really iffy

 

You need a tremendous bullpen. We have almost zero of a tremendous bullpen

 

You need a manager who will stand up for the players, who will light a fire under them when needed, who will lead a team of coaches to emphasize smart Baseball, fundamentally strong Baseball. Roenicke is somewhat like the anti-Boche. The Brewers do all the little things wrong.

 

It'll take way too long for the Brewers to admit that Gennett is a liability vs LHP.

 

Not many professional managers would bat Carlos Gomez 1st. Roenicke likes "power at the top of the lineup". OK

 

Ryan Braun is done as a superstar.

[JohnBriggs12]

When a team stumbles like they did down the stretch last year, and management acts like either it didn't happen or it doesn't matter, then there certainly is a problem. On paper, this is a middle of the pack team. As with all middle of the pack teams, if a lot goes right, then they can contend but if a lot goes wrong, they can finish last. The fear is there's was no accountability for last year's failure so what incentives does this group have? When that happens you end up with a bunch of underachievers. Melvin's astonishingly sitting on a new contract too and Roenicke's had his 2016 option already picked up. They'll continue to make excuses if this team doesn't perform.

[gregmag]

I'm not worried about the bullpen, and I think people are almost uniformly underselling what Fiers has done. Peralta and Nelson have a good chance of contributing more than last year. I don't mind Jungmann as our #6 starter. I think we'll get more offensively this year out of 1b, ss, lf, and rf than we got last year. Parra helps with those outfield projections -- he's the only bench guy we have who can really step in as a starter.

 

I'm very worried about Lohse, Garza, and Ramirez. It's hard to see any of those guys being better than he was last year. If the rotation flames out, we really are weak after Jungmann. In addition, it's hard to see Luc and Gomez matching what they did last year. That's not to say they won't continue to play at a great level, but both basically had career years. The bench adds almost nothing offensively.

 

Overall, I see more likelihood of losing ground than gaining ground. We just don't have enough promising young players in the developmental stages of their careers, and we have some key veterans who should (based on typical aging patterns) get worse and could fall off a cliff. We do lack depth. I think the possibility of a train wreck is very real.

[JohnBriggs12]

The depth issue is overstated. Depth can be traded for or picked up off the street. Brewers do have some players on their 40 man worth keeping an eye on that could help as soon as this season. I'm talking specifically about Rogers, Sardinas, and Clark. Thornburg has started successfully in the big leagues and there are any number of guys capable of stepping into his relief role. The problem with the Brewers is that in the past they dawdled removing ineffective starters who are getting paid. No way Garza gets removed any time, and Lohse likely would last into August as Wolf did several years ago.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I can't really argue with any projection I see on the Brewers. I could see them keeping it together and piling up runs with a good rotation and pen...making the playoffs, perhaps more of a wild card. I could also see some subpar performances and a meltdown culminating in a mid-season fire sale. I'm not going to worry about it and enjoy the season. This may be the last season they actually have a chance for a few years to legitimately compete at the MLB level. Even with a low probability of a playoff chance, it isn't hopeless. That's enough for me.

[logan82]

I think this article assumes the worst for the Brewers, meaning the following:

 

*Braun is done as a superstar and is merely average

*Ramirez is done. Period.

*Gomez reverts to the pre-2013 Gomez

*Segura is who he has been for the past year and a half

*Scooter cannot hit LHP and hits .260 as a full time player

*Lind cannot stay healthy

*Lohse is done. Period.

*Fiers is a fluke

*Nelson is not ready to be an everyday #5

 

All of those things could easily be true. It really wouldn't be shocking if they were. I hope none are true but I think at least half probably are. It is really easy seeing the Brewers win between 70 and 85 games.

The bolded statements above are the ones I have the most fear of being true in 2015. If those prove to be true, I see the Brewers in the 75-77 win range. If, like you said, all are true, then they are a 70 win team. If none are true, the Brewers are contenders in 2015 and legitimate threats to win the NL Central as I think mid-80s win total will win the Central this year.

*Braun is done as a superstar and is merely average-I think this may be possible

*Ramirez is done. Period.-I don't think he is done but I don't think he is a full time player anymore

*Gomez reverts to the pre-2013 Gomez-this may be possible, maybe not this year yet, his game relies on his athleticism

*Segura is who he has been for the past year and a half-I think he is better than that but not as good as his all star half season

*Scooter cannot hit LHP and hits .260 as a full time player-I think Scooter needs to be platooned

*Lind cannot stay healthy-not really concerned with this

*Lohse is done. Period.-hopefully not yet but a real possibility

*Fiers is a fluke-his stuff makes this a very real possibility

*Nelson is not ready to be an everyday #5-Not really worried about this

[trwi7]

The depth issue is overstated. Depth can be traded for or picked up off the street.

 

Of course depth can be picked up off the street. It's not going to be good depth though. There's a reason they were on the street.

[brewcrewdue80]

Laugh out Loud. And what if Jake Arrieta isn't the SP he was last season. Kyle Hendriks performs as bad as Jimmy Nelson is being concerned? After Jon Lester, doesn't that make the Cubs a 67 win team too?

 

I think there's a lot of reasons to be skeptical of Chicago, but they look to be trending in a positive direction. They won 73 games last year, but they have made a lot off season moves, including adding Lester, Fowler and Montero. They will have a full season of Solar, and waiting in the wings is Bryant. Personally, I think that because of the additions the club made during the offseason, plus the expected maturation of younger players, I see them as a .500ish team. But I won't be shocked if they win less than that. Young players are unpredictable - even highly touted ones. Still, I think it will take several major issues to arise for the team win only 67 games. Not impossible, but unlikely.

 

Almost all of that is on the batting side. It's like the Cubs are a version of the Rockies offensively. Lester has all of last season to be thought of as an under 3 ERA SP. Otherwise, he's a 3.5 ERA SP for his career and was immediately shellacked on Opening day thus far. His career numbers make him no more a Matt Garza or Kyle Lohse.

 

All that offense isn't worth anything if the career years of Lester/Arrieta/Hendriks even Jason Hammel. What if they all turn out as being that? Career years (as feared about Gomez/Lucroy) That's 4 SPs who had ERAs below 3 so it's fathomable to think they can allow a full 1 run more this year and none of that is out of the ordinary that's just their average.

 

Samardzija had a career year for this Cubs 73 win team ie who Lester replaces.

 

If pitching is going to be the Brewers' downfall (when only Fiers had that career type numbers for year), to me, it's more likely the Cubs' pitching won't win their end of the games for them. Even if the Cubs offense is 100 runs better this season. You take 33 Starts among 4 SPs adding 1 to their ERA, Wouldn't that offset those 100 runs? (at 200IP avg) I come up with about 89 runs.

 

It's just like my prediction that Pittsburgh won't be as strong since that end of their bullpen was lights out...Tony Watson promptly gave up 3 runs his first appearance to lose a tie ball game for them vs Cincy.

 

The Brewers did what they did last season with just Gomez/Lucroy being AS performances. And Fiers performance for 10 starts. That's it. Gomez/Lucroy being in their primes and because they were previously trending upward to begin with are most likely going to keep up the pace they shown last year.

How about/what if Milw's bullpen does a Pittsburgh or 2014? KRod doesn't give up HRs at an alarming rate. Jeffress/Broxton pitch lights out?

 

I just think the Brewers have shown mostly average numbers/stats by the time the season ended. Will Smith improves vs RHP? Peralta puts it more together? Seriously Peralta...the IP likely will be there. But what if he begins K-ing more? That should immediately improve his numbers. He goes from 198/154 to 212/198? He's ripe for that kind of stat improvement. Garza I believe is Garza, He'll finish around 3.4/3.5ERA end of the season. The concern is always health...Why not go a full season this year? Lohse had 198 IP for an avg 3.54 ERA. He may not reach 198 IP again but I think even turning in a worse season he still keeps the ERA below 4. Which if I am about correct on 200 IP 1 full run being 22 runs that gives Lohse less than half a run or about 10 more Runs given up on his season vs last.

 

Fiers/Nelson become the question marks really for how bad/terrible can it get? Fiers has done it. Just seems to know how to pitch. I'll just peg him to be average and that's what? 3.77ERA? So it's Nelson. as a #5 SP. Well guess what? Thornburg is the team's long man who's started admirably in the past. These are 2 former #1 Brewers prospects. I doubt Nelson will have a long leash like Peralta his first full season starting due to that. I think the team will find a way to get 15-18 quality starts from the #5 SP in some fashion. Milwaukee's #5 SP I feel is better than most team's #5 situation because of who its relying on.

 

So I just don't see the Brewers being terrible, or winning fewer than 76games. What did I predict? 87 was it? I still stand by that so long as the Brewers aren't bit by the injury bug. The Pirates' pitching was phenomenal last season for who it involved and they lost Russell Martin the signal caller who had a career year himself. The Reds dealt Matt Latos an ace potential and Alfredo Simon who went 196 IP of 3.44 ERA for. The Cubs' starters as mentioned.

 

There's just more questions to me about how will those teams get the same group of players to play to the level they did in 2014 when it's very unexpected. Compared to Milw's duo and Fiers? Fiers had pitched already well 2 seasons prior. He's more likely to continue than what I'm looking at from other team in the division.

 

I didn't mention the Cardinals. That pitching staff is a given. Their hitting isn't imo. But that pitching will keep them in games w/o needing the hitting. 3 out of 4 division opponents most likely seeing worse performances for a Milw team to face who was 36-40 last season vs their division. And come on, we have Adam Lind at 1b! How much WAR is that going to be at the end of the season vs the duo of Reynolds/Overbay? BRef has them at being worth negative 2 wins combined from just an average player. Lind was +.8 in his limited action....3 wins right there statistically. 1b seems to be forgotten by the people who write about Milw how improved it HAS to be for Milw. It's like adding a breakout player like the Pirates did in Polanco or the Cubs will in Bryant. Reds getting Votto back. It just didn't happen from the minor ranks.

[igor67]

I'd say what is somewhat intriguing about the combo of players the Brewers have is that pretty much any win total between 70-90 has a very similar likelihood. The win totals may favor the lower end a bit just because a slower start would seem to make it more likely to sell off some of the good veteran assets, whereas at least right now there aren't glaring holes where than would be a huge obvious upgrade in a trade if they start hot. It just feels different than last years about .500 squad because you could imagine a bunch of things going really well and it not being a huge stretch just like it's not too hard to imagine a couple of injuries and other bad luck torpedoing the team.

[brewmann04]

going to be a long season and we see a new closer by June . Oh why did we sign Krod to a multi year deal.

If i am DM i going to ride into the sunset . Glad we going to lose alot of Money off this budget come next season.

[3and2Fastball]

This front office is done, stick a fork in 'em and send Roenicke back to being a bench coach somewhere.

 

They had their shot in 2011 but the game has changed since then and they haven't adjusted.

[JohnBriggs12]

I know it's harsh but Ramirez is done and the sooner they realize it, the better. He is the worst cleanup hitter in the NL. He's now a singles hitter who can't run. In his last 27 games going back to last year, he has 5 extra base hits, 5 RBI and 2 Runs scored. When your cleanup hitter is accounting for one run scored or driven in every 4 games, you are in serious trouble. Colorado had 3 guys exceed that in one series.

[owbc]

They had their shot in 2011 but the game has changed since then and they haven't adjusted.

 

This. Exactly.

 

MLB is about two things right now: pitching and young talent. The Brewers have neither. Games are low scoring and fundamentals are more important than ever. The Brewers have mistake-prone free swingers.

 

I don't care what happens to Roenicke. He isn't really the problem. Ned freakin' Yost was in the World Series last year. They need to clean out upper management, but unfortunately the owner hasn't realized the situation yet.

 

He will soon enough. On paper, this is the 4th best team in the division. Any expectation of finishing higher than that is based on an unrealistic hope of everything going right like it did for about a month and a half last April/May.

[reillymcshane]

Three games. 159 more. I'm not ready to pass any judgements quite yet. Too much left for that. There's still some quality talent on this club. As we've said, there's a lot of questions as well, but three games is too early to answer those questions.

[pacopete4]

In 2011, we started 0-4 under Roenicke and finished with 96 wins. Not hitting the panic button yet. No need to. If you want to be doom and gloom about this team, that's your right. But it is not a very fun way to go about a 162 game season that just about anything can happen with.

[monty57]

Three games. 159 more. I'm not ready to pass any judgements quite yet. Too much left for that. There's still some quality talent on this club. As we've said, there's a lot of questions as well, but three games is too early to answer those questions.

 

Agree. It stinks to get swept in the opening series, but it's still only three games. Let's not get ahead of ourselves with "the season's over" talk. That said, we do need to heat things up, because the next 22 games are against division rivals.

 

Baseball's funny because there are hot and cold streaks throughout the season, but a hot start leads to "buying" at the deadline, while a cold start leads to "selling." The Brewers of the past few years have been all or nothing (perhaps to do the reliance on HR/high K guys??). The two years prior to last year, the cold streak was early, leading them to sell only to have hot second halves. Last year was the opposite. I think that if we play this year out with no moves, we'll end up somewhere around .500, and within sight of the Wild Card spot. However, if we stay cold for a couple more weeks (against division rivals), we'll probably jump at selling Lohse, Ramirez, Parra and Broxton who are all FA at season's end.

 

But that's just thinking "out loud." We do have the talent to compete this year, so hopefully that will start to show itself sooner rather than later.

 

Edit: Note that in the 2nd paragraph I'm not saying we'd "sell in May and go away," but if we stink it up against division rivals in the next three weeks, we may dig ourselves into a hole that we can't dig out of by the trade deadline, and in that situation Melvin may be an early seller (early July as opposed to late July) to get maximum return from some aging guys on their final contract year.

[logan82]

Let's not pretend like this is some knee jerk reaction to the first few games. These concerns are not new. They were the same concerns many people had last year and the year before.

[FVBrewerFan]

Exactly. Let's not get into a straw-man argument. Everyone who has posted understands that 3 games mean very little. I get that Lucroy won't hit .000 this year. We're simply responding to a post that happened to be posted in the midst of the first series, it's not like we all had high expectations, and came crashing down after 3 games.

 

Thing is, I don't even care if they have a bad season. What I DO care about I bringing ARam back, and some other moves that could have been made, or not made, to put this team in a better position for 2016. They either needed to keep Yo and improve in other areas, or make it a rebuilding year. Instead, they are stuck in the middle.

 

I'm not even talking about tearing it down to the ground, just make a few moves that would have saved a lot of money and got some return back. I hope I'm wrong, but I just a team where the offense will come and go, generally be ok. But a pitching staff that could absolutely implode.

[monty57]

Let's not pretend like this is some knee jerk reaction to the first few games. These concerns are not new. They were the same concerns many people had last year and the year before.

 

From the volumes of text I've written on that topic, I think you know where I stand on how the team has been built for quite a while. If this is about why the Brewers are where they are, I'll lead anyone to most of what I've written in the past few years.

 

However, this article is about the possibility of the Brewers collapsing this season, not why they are in that position. I think a collapse is possible, due to things such as lack of depth and trust in aging vets and unheralded young players. However, my guess is that if the season were played with no moves being made, the Brewers would end somewhere around .500 with an outside shot at the playoffs. A slow start will mean trading off guys like Lohse, Ramirez, Parra and Broxton, while a fast start will mean more trades like the Broxton and Parra trades of last season, where we give up a mid-tier prospect in exchange for taking on salary.

 

As to after this season... well, there's probably a reason Melvin isn't jumping at the job for life Attanasio has basically offered him on a platter.

[logan82]

I know where you stand. My response was not to you but to the people saying some people are overreacting to a few games.

[danzig6767]

This front office is done, stick a fork in 'em and send Roenicke back to being a bench coach somewhere.

 

They had their shot in 2011 but the game has changed since then and they haven't adjusted.

I'm all for moving on from Melvin, but Attanasio is a big part of that front office, free agent signings, and direction the team chooses from year to year. Unless that changes, bringing in a new GM can only have so much impact if the owner also wants to have a quasi-GM role himself.