What Many Brewers Fans May Think, But Dare Not Say (Yet)

[monty57]

The Brewers started to lose me around the time they traded for Marcum. I didn't like the trade at the time, but it turned out ok after they traded for Greinke. The problem was they never did anything after that to improve the future. One small trade of Greinke who was never going to stay anyway. Then they brought back Yuni and gave up a pick to sign Lohse. Those were both horrible deals especially when the continued to trot Yuni out day after day. The Gallardo trade brought back some small goodwill from me but they still have a long way to go. I am not really upset about how they have fared this year so far.

 

That was pretty much the offseason for me as well. They had some good, young talent, and I figured they had to trade Fielder and Hart to bring back a ton of prospects to keep growing from within, which is what had transformed them into a respectable franchise. Instead, they insisted on MLB talent back for Fielder and Hart, and when (understandably) no playoff hopeful team was going to trade a bunch of young MLB pitching for one year of Fielder or Hart, they went the route they did. At that time, I figured that we were in it for one or maybe two years, but they'd better be quick to trade away vets, or everything was going to go downhill, with less talent each year as good players were replaced with lesser players, eventually leading to the need for a complete rebuild.

 

To LouisEly's post, I'd say that the poster's response has merit only if you look at everything year-to-year, and assume we were somehow fated to be in the situation we were this offseason. I don't believe that. The Brewers rebuild started during the Dean Taylor years, and started to bear fruit when guys like Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, etc stepped into the majors. The moves made (and not made) since then are why we are where we are, not just what we could have done this past offseason. From that point until we were forced to trade Greinke, every move was made to win "now," with no regard to the future. There has been some change over the past year or so (trading Gallardo, drafting younger guys), but that's way too little, too late to recover from years of "win now."

 

Actions / decisions have consequences. Deciding to maximize "today" at the expense of the future naturally leads to a lesser future. Attanasio acknowledged in interviews that he willfully traded away the future for the present. To some, it's probably nice to hear the owner say he's going to give up the future in order to try to win now. I'm a planner, so to me that is about the worst thing I could ever hear an owner say. He bought the team in the perfect situation, with loads of young, pre-arby talent, a new stadium with a swelling fan base, and a low team payroll with plenty of room for growth. He added revenue streams, allowing even higher potential payroll. In this scenario, it was almost impossible not to make the playoffs once or twice. We didn't have to sell out the future, we could have stuck with the strategy that brought us from basement dwellers into respectability, but that's not the route Attanasio chose, and now we are seemingly destined for the massive rebuild I've been dreading for a few seasons.

 

That is what saddens me. After years of ineptitude, I got really excited when Taylor laid out his rebuild plan, and for the first time I started paying attention ot the minor leagues, watching our future stars tear up the minors, and knowing that in the not-too-distant future the MLB team would be good. Then the MLB team started to get better, and I got even more excited thinking about what the future could hold... we could be good for a long time. This strategy works, so why couldn't we continue to be good by simply showing a willingness to trade away guys who are nearing free agency and keeping our farm stocked. It's not easy, but it's something the Brewers can do to finally show some success. Then they decided they wouldn't trade Fielder unless they got two young MLB-ready pitchers, and the rest is history.

[danzig6767]

The lack of talent in this organization is shocking. It makes you wonder what exactly they've been doing the past 5 years.

Drafting badly overall.

 

I hate ripping on a dead man, but for all of the things Melvin gets criticized for and enough of it is justified, his hiring of Bruce Seid to replace Zduriencik is the move which i'd argue was the most costly by far of his tenure as GM, assuming that Melvin did make that hire and not Attanasio.

 

People can be upset over money spent on pitchers like Suppan, Garza, Lohse, K-Rod, etc, but one major factor in that has been the abysmal failure of the drafting and developing of quality pitching, whether it's starting pitching or even just relief pitchers. Then the drafting of high quality position prospects also nosedived.

 

No small market franchise can thrive outside of brief stretches of success unless they draft well and the drafting under Seid has really harmed the Brewers franchise. Who baseball teams hire as their amateur scouting director doesn't often get a lot of press in comparison to say free agents who are signed or who the manager is, but those amateur scouting directors are second in importance to the general manager IMO. Make a bad hire for that job, especially at a small market franchise and it can badly hurt that team for a long time.

[monty57]

I wonder if the drafting was at least in part due to a team strategy of looking for "low ceiling/high floor" guys who they thought could get to the majors quickly and help the team during it's "window."

 

The recent drafts seem to be better received, since the team seems to have changed tack and started going for the most talented player available, of course taking into consideration the old "signability" factor.

[trwi7]

I understand Lohse has been bad this year and they had to give up a pick for him but at least keep in mind we got two solid years out of him and he could still salvage this year to respectability. I agree they probably shouldn't have signed him but it was far from a disaster.

 

Two solid years that led to what? A combined 156-168 record with no playoff appearances. The Lohse signing did absolutely nothing for this team other than costing us a ton of money and a draft pick.

[reillymcshane]

No small market franchise can thrive outside of brief stretches of success unless they draft well and the drafting under Seid has really harmed the Brewers franchise. Who baseball teams hire as their amateur scouting director doesn't often get a lot of press in comparison to say free agents who are signed or who the manager is, but those amateur scouting directors are second in importance to the general manager IMO. Make a bad hire for that job, especially at a small market franchise and it can badly hurt that team for a long time.

Since 2006 we have drafted 15 guys in the first round (includes supplemental picks; doesn't include Dylan Covey), plus 12 second round picks. Of those players, they have so far produced 1.0 bWAR (thanks Mr. Jeffress) for Milwaukee.

 

Out of these 27 premium picks

 

- 2 guys are on the team this year (Jeffress, Nelson)

- 10 have been cut or dealt to other teams who cut them (Walla, Dykstra, Lintz, Adams, Frederickson, LaPorta, Brewer, Heckathorn, K. Davis, Arnett)

- 5 guys were drafted in the past two years, so it's unrealistic to expect them to contribute (Harrison, Medeiros, Gatewood, D. Williams, Neuhaus)

- 7 remain in the system (Jungmann, Coulter, Lopez, Taylor, Bradley, Garfield, Roache)

- 2 were traded and have had success thus far (Lawrie, Odorizzi)

 

I guess the best thing is that the more recent picks show potential to be good, but even of the guys still in the system, most don't look like they have lots of upside.

 

You have to go back to 2005, when we took Braun, to find a real impact player.

 

As people have noted, we have done okay in some of the later rounds with guys like Scooter and Davis. But teams need to hit their premium picks more than we have. We don't have the money to buy our way out of poor drafts, like Boston or New York.

[tmwiese55]

Two solid years that led to what? A combined 156-168 record with no playoff appearances. The Lohse signing did absolutely nothing for this team other than costing us a ton of money and a draft pick.

 

As I said, I wouldn't have done it. But this move itself got you exactly what was expected, mid to low 3 run eras and 200 innings each year. It's being discussed here like it was Looper, Suppan, Gagne level. And that it was only 3 years had little chance to blow up in our face. My point, and I don't think it's crazy, is that people are only remembering the last 3 games rather than that he was fine the last two years.

 

This move wasn't near the top of the list of the mistakes and an argument could be made it was fine right now, that argument goes away if he bombs the rest of this season.

 

The problem is pretty well outlined by reilly right there, no hits in the draft since 2005, ouch. If they would've drafted better this hit coming up the next few years wouldn't be that bad. My overall take is that you can't always just worry about the future, at some point you have to put your cards on the table and go for it and they did it and got close. If Sheets doesn't get hurt the CC year who knows. If STL doesn't sneak into the playoffs in 2011 on a monster ATL collapse, who knows. If they would have just drafted better it could have been fine, would have taken your shot while also not having to go into all out rebuild mode.

 

I guess another thing to talk about would just be overall team construction strategy over the years. For a small market team we should always be built around pitching and developing our own. For whatever reason, our team got stocked with hitting prospects with only one pitching in the early/mid 00s. It does seem they realize that now with how many pitchers have been drafted recently but it's too late and it doesn't really seem like many will pan out with big upsides.

 

Really need Wily, Nelson and one other to step up to give us something to build around. What about moving Smith slowly back to a starter for next year? His stuff is ridiculous and when we got him I thought he was supposed to be starter. This idea popped into my head when reading about the White Sox super prospect they just called up. Big strong lefty with upper 90s hear and a monster slider. Why not try to get 200 innings out of him instead of 60. Maybe start building him up in the second half of this year to get ready to take a spot next season.

[TheCrew07]

Smith's stuff is just okay as a starter, his stuff very average, he's much better in relief, where his FB plays up and doesn't have to face the order multiple times.

 

Carlos Rodon is being called up in a panic move to help the bullpen, he's a starting pitcher long-term and this won't help his development as he needs work on his location and his change-up. The Sox would have been served following the same pattern that Rays utilized with David Price.

 

The Cubs calling up Bryant and Russell so early is interesting...

[SoupTown]

Great insights gentlepeople. But alas, the management and owners will only resort to hand wringing. And trying to find the next 'excuse'.

 

One thing I disagree with: a public rebuild should NOT cause the fan base to disintegrate. As a fan, I would LOVE to see a team of youngsters (with upside, please) have a chance to develop and be a good team in two or three years. And then I dont care if they all leave on their way to the Yankees and Dodgers and Angels and Cubs. Because you just do it all again.

 

This idea that you put a team on the field that has NO FUTURE disgusts me. Right now I am rooting for Segura to show what he can be. Davis I hope he becomes Nelson Cruz. Nelson and Peralta I hope will do well and our young bullpen guys. But for all the guys that are old and playing like they are old... and dont care... well, I dont care.

 

The management have once again given out the vibes that it really does not matter the results. And a lot of the team have picked up on that. I guess the hitting coach we canned (to solve our problem) is a famous 'he who laughs last, laughs best'

 

Oh, and Fiers. I barrack for him. You see, you can put on a 50 112 team IF they are young and all have a go and learning and growing. I can accept that and see a future. And I feel part of something. What do I feel part of now: old, washed up guys who dont care and young guy with little talent (you can have one or two... but that is not the future). I am tired of this organisation. Even if they were to win 20 in a row, I dont trust them. If a group of young guys won 5 in a row, then I would trust them and the future. Our team and management... I dont trust them.

[danzig6767]

Smith's stuff is just okay as a starter, his stuff very average, he's much better in relief, where his FB plays up and doesn't have to face the order multiple times.

Not only that, put him in the rotation where teams put as many righthanded bats in the lineup as realistic, it's hard to envision him having success over a full season given his struggles vs righthanded batters.

 

Out of the pen, you can bring him in for an inning where say two of the three scheduled hitters are lefthanded.

 

Most pitchers have better splits when facing batters who hit from the same side the pitcher throws from, but the splits for Smith are so dramatic. Until he can figure out how to get righthanded batters out, at best he''s a one inning relief pitcher and maybe even ends up being more of a loogy.

[tmwiese55]

For the sox they did the same thing with Sale and that worked well so that's their logic. I think he'll be starting by June if he does well in the pen. They have a couple really shaky starters and are in complete win now mode.

 

Regarding smith, I see the points you guys made. But that's based off one season as reliever basically. The issues brought up would be things you would focus and work on and see how does. Kind of what you could use this 2nd half for, if it doesn't work then you're back where you started. I however would not call 95+ heater with a huge slider as average. And regardless it's better than everyone's stuff in our rotation besides Nelson maybe. Work on a changeup could really help but there's no need to work on it as a reliever. I'm not saying this is a no brainer or anything, just throwing it out there. What do they have to lose.

[yfinn6]

For the sox they did the same thing with Sale and that worked well so that's their logic. I think he'll be starting by June if he does well in the pen. They have a couple really shaky starters and are in complete win now mode.

 

Regarding smith, I see the points you guys made. But that's based off one season as reliever basically. The issues brought up would be things you would focus and work on and see how does. Kind of what you could use this 2nd half for, if it doesn't work then you're back where you started. I however would not call 95+ heater with a huge slider as average. And regardless it's better than everyone's stuff in our rotation besides Nelson maybe. Work on a changeup could really help but there's no need to work on it as a reliever. I'm not saying this is a no brainer or anything, just throwing it out there. What do they have to lose.

 

If Smith were in the rotation, his stuff likely wouldn't be as sharp or as hard, since he'd have to conserve energy to pitch to more than just one or two hitters.

 

Since he's in a specialist role, he can amp up his fastball and slider so it's more effective - max energy type situation. I thought KC moved him to the pen because he just wasn't a great starter but had good stuff.

[TheCrew07]

My opinion of Smith as a starter has nothing to do with what he's done as a reliever. He doesn't throw 95 as a starter and his slider is MLB average, maybe a little above, but it's not a wipe out pitch. He works more 91-93 as a starter, which is just above average.

 

Sale had 2 plus pitches and an above average 3rd with MLB average control out of the draft. Rodon does not have 3 pitches or that kind of control at this time. The only similarities between the 2 pitchers are they are both LHP and they both throw a slider. Speaking of which Rodon's slider is a wipe out or plus MLB pitch, Smith's is not that good.

[tmwiese55]

What are you basing this off then, starts in the minors? I'm surprised there's that much info available about that but I guess if that's what happened, so be it.

 

For the sox I was just saying that's their strategy and who's to say they're wrong. Worked for sale, Johan Santana, and liriano just off the top of my head. Not saying he's as good as sale or anything. I actually think sale did 1.5 years in the pen too. From what I read today putting in the pen is more about keeping the innings count down so he can finish the season in the rotation. That and just to get his feet wet first. We'll see how he does I guess.

[LouisEly]

I understand Lohse has been bad this year and they had to give up a pick for him but at least keep in mind we got two solid years out of him and he could still salvage this year to respectability. I agree they probably shouldn't have signed him but it was far from a disaster.

 

Two solid years that led to what? A combined 156-168 record with no playoff appearances. The Lohse signing did absolutely nothing for this team other than costing us a ton of money and a draft pick.

It also contributed to bringing in a ton of money by being in first place last year for ~135 games or so. If they didn't have Lohse and played at a 78 win pace all season (or worse, depending on who would have started instead), how many fewer fans would have attended? If it was 2.5M instead of 2.8M, 300K fans x $60/fan (ticket, parking, concessions, souvenirs), that's an additional $18M in revenue by being competitive. Lohse cost $11M in salary last season, so his net impact could have been up to $7M positive.

 

It's also been well documented that Lohse is an outstanding presence in the clubhouse and does a great job of keeping the team loose and helping the younger players. You need some veterans on the team to do that and teach the young players how to handle a long season.

[adambr2]

I understand Lohse has been bad this year and they had to give up a pick for him but at least keep in mind we got two solid years out of him and he could still salvage this year to respectability. I agree they probably shouldn't have signed him but it was far from a disaster.

 

Two solid years that led to what? A combined 156-168 record with no playoff appearances. The Lohse signing did absolutely nothing for this team other than costing us a ton of money and a draft pick.

It also contributed to bringing in a ton of money by being in first place last year for ~135 games or so. If they didn't have Lohse and played at a 78 win pace all season (or worse, depending on who would have started instead), how many fewer fans would have attended? If it was 2.5M instead of 2.8M, 300K fans x $60/fan (ticket, parking, concessions, souvenirs), that's an additional $18M in revenue by being competitive. Lohse cost $11M in salary last season, so his net impact could have been up to $7M positive.

 

It's also been well documented that Lohse is an outstanding presence in the clubhouse and does a great job of keeping the team loose and helping the younger players. You need some veterans on the team to do that and teach the young players how to handle a long season.

 

I would say that drawing 2.8M fans instead of 2.5M and being in first place for 135 games is exactly why we decided to stay the course this year and exactly why we continue to be in the situation that we are in.

 

Attendance is going to plummet this season, there's just no way around it. It's not entirely a bad thing. Part of the reason we've put off the rebuild that we so desperately need for so long is because Mark A is terrified of the consequences of lost attendance. If this forces him to cut payroll and therefore rebuild, so be it.

[TheCrew07]

What are you basing this off then, starts in the minors? I'm surprised there's that much info available about that but I guess if that's what happened, so be it.

 

There's a plethora of scouting reports available and after the Greinke trade I followed KC because I liked all of the prospects we sent that way and I wanted them to do well.

 

He made 16 starts for KC in 2012, it's not like he only started in the minors.

[3and2Fastball]

Once they are healthy, just imagine the plethora of talented prospects the Brewers could get for Lucroy & Gomez. Add in a fire sale of Lohse, Ramirez, Garza, and Lind and they could really have an exciting farm system

[danzig6767]

One thing i really hopes happens is if Attanasio does decide to clean house and hire a new GM, he should do it sooner than later so that if guys like Gomez and others were traded, that new front office is the one making the moves for young talent they will be responsible for acquiring vs them inheriting it.

 

You easily could have a situation where Gomez is shopped at the deadline and the package which Melvin/his staff would like best is much different than the package a new GM hired in say the offseason would have preferred had he been in place when negotiations were happening with other teams.

 

If the Brewers do end up becoming major sellers around the deadline, decisions made then will play a big factor in future rosters going forward. I'd much rather see the guy pulling the trigger on those moves being the one who will be the GM over the next 5-10 years, not the GM likely heading out the door at season end.

 

FWIW, i do think Melvin would be very professional even if he knew this was his last season and make decisions in his mind for the best long term future of the Brewers if asked to do so, but he'd still be making important trades which a new GM would have to inherit if Attanasio waited until after the season to replace Doug.

[tmwiese55]

There's a plethora of scouting reports available and after the Greinke trade I followed KC because I liked all of the prospects we sent that way and I wanted them to do well.

 

He made 16 starts for KC in 2012, it's not like he only started in the minors.

 

Gotcha, I see that now that I'm at a real computer instead of an ipad. I suppose that he'll always be a reliever at this point then since it's been a few years. I guess the other thing to consider though is that he was 22 at the time in his first big league action, might have been able to improve if given the time. Either way, it's probably too late now.

 

Man, last night was rough.

[monty57]

Attanasio has offered Melvin a contract for life, to which Melvin said he wanted to see how he felt as the season progressed. Attanasio then said he wants to get a decision, as he wants to have a successor in place when Melvin decides to go. Attanasio won't fire Melvin this year, but the way things are going, I could see Melvin running for the door, so it is possible that they hire someone soon who will be an "assistant" this season and step into the GM position next year. I'm not sure if teams are allowed to talk with guys who are working for other organizations and hire them mid-season, but if they can, I hope they're making some phone calls.

[DocLuna7]

I do wonder if Ray Montgomery is being looked at as future GM material here within the organization right now. Despite the semantics, why do they hire Montgomery in what is an all-but-the-title lateral move?

[TooLiveBrew]

I do wonder if Ray Montgomery is being looked at as future GM material here within the organization right now. Despite the semantics, why do they hire Montgomery in what is an all-but-the-title lateral move?

I either didn't know or didn't remember this factoid from Montgomery's Wikipedia page:

 

After a his playing career, he spent four years as an area scout for the Milwaukee Brewers, during which time Milwaukee selected second baseman Rickie Weeks out of his South Texas/Louisiana territory. He was the Brewers' Midwest supervisor for two years and their assistant scouting director and national supervisor the next two years.