Braun Hurt on Opening Day

[monty57]

I can envision Doug trading guys like Gomez, Broxton, Garza, Lohse if the situation presents itself; but Lucroy is pretty much the face of the franchise right now. He is an elite catcher and those are very few and far between. I would be shocked if Lucroy goes anywhere and I fully expect an extension when that time comes. You can rebuild the system plenty just by trading Gomez and maybe Garza, I don't think trading Lucroy is necessary. The team can be an excellent team 3 years from now assuming some of the lower minors talent develops as we hope; I don't think it is necessary to gut the MLB team Astros style.

 

I too could see them extending him, as Attanasio really likes players the fans know. However, I hope he is not extended, as he is getting played to death, and today's wear and tear could lead to problems when he's in his 30's. Today, in his peak years playing catcher and not taking a day off, he's very valuable. Fast forward a few years when he's past his prime, has no knees left and has to play first base, and I don't think he'll be worth what he'll get in his next contract.

 

They are not resigning Gomez and I doubt they have any interest in doing so. Everyone knows he is going to break down quickly after 30...let a desperate team have him.

 

I was talking about Lucroy.

 

I agree that Gomez will not be extended, as barring injury or complete collapse, he is going to get a monster contract that the Brewers will not be able to match. The question with him will be whether we trade him mid-season this year, during the next offseason, mid-season next year, or if we hold onto him and lose him in free agency. I just hope it's not the last option unless we win the World Series next year. That's about the only thing that would justify our getting draft pick compensation rather than trading him for a king's ransom of young talent.

 

guess my point of all that was that if we do that teardown and blow for the next couple years and then those prospects don't hit, turning into say 6-8 yrs of futility with no attendance and it kills TV ratings for the coming Foxsports re-negotiation. This could cost the owners a lot of money and I think people should remember that when analyzing the moves they make, I think the owners are in fear of going back to the doldrums of the late 90s/early 00s since they've done such a good job getting the people behind the team since they took over.

 

I completely agree that Attanasio's decisions are at least partly (if not mostly) done to make sure attendance stays up. The question here is whether attendance will stay high if the veteran team starts losing. The point where the team has a high payroll, a losing record, and waning attendance over a few seasons would seems to be when a team could decide to do a total rebuild. Wisconsin fans are pretty die-hard, and continued to go to Packer and Badger games through decades of futility before their resurgence in the 90's. Looking at Brewer attendance http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/attend.shtml, they went from over 3,071,373 in 2011 to 2,531,105 in 2013 and bounced back to 2,797,384 with the early season win streak last year. I'd guess that a few years of losing (whether with veterans or youth) would put attendance in the low 2 millions, where they've been since 2004. Prior to that, fans had the perception (whether real or just perceived) that the Seligs were a bunch of cheats trying to con the fans out of money, and shortly before that they played in a stadium that was falling apart (it seemed every game I went to a water pipe burst, spraying fans with water - or maybe sewage, I don't know). Therefore, I think that 2,000,000 is probably the baseline where even with a series of losing teams, as long as the fans don't think Attanasio is a cheat, and the stadium doesn't fall apart, 2,000,000 will probably still come out just for a day at the park.

 

That said, losing half a million ticket sales in two years (from 2011 to 2013) has to be a big reason Attanasio has continued to do everything he could to put a team on the field that at least would build fan perception of a winner, and the fear of losing close to 1/3 of ticket sales will continue to be a motivating factor for him to continue to do the same. I've argued against his methods of team building, but I understand why he makes some of his decisions.

 

Attanasio has said numerous times he wants players whose names the fans know, whether that's extending current fan favorites or signing "name" free agents. What's better: Having an under-producing Aramis Ramirez, or a better producing no name? From a baseball perspective, I'd take the no-name, but from a pre-season ticket sales perspective, fans may buy more tickets because they'll feel better about the upcoming team's playoff hopes with Ramirez in the lineup (of course having images of the .950 OPS slugger he's been, and not the .750 OPS guy he probably is). Relating this to Braun (to keep somewhat on the topic of the thread) this is also why the whole Braun PED saga hurt even if he plays well post-surgery. Some fans now hate him, and associate that hate with the Brewers, and therefore don't buy tickets. If the team loses, and Braun is one of the only names they know, these fans will be the loud guys at the bar ripping the Brewers, and if the perception of the team starts to go downhill (like it did for the Seligs), then that 2,000,000 baseline I mentioned earlier may be high.

 

Personally, from an attendance standpoint, I think the Brewers were fortunate last year that they had their hot streak early in the season rather than late in the season like the previous two years. They ended with roughly the same record, but an early hot streak means the team is in first place, spurring fan interest and ticket sales (and a marketing slogan for the next offseason), while a late hot streak means the team is out of it at the trade deadline, and the fans have tuned out the Brewers in favor of the Packers by the time the streak hits. The early hot streak last year probably sold 300,000-400,000 additional tickets for the Brewers last year, and probably a lot more this past offseason. If the poor start we've seen so far this season continues, we'll probably be around 2,500,000 in ticket sales, which probably won't pay for the record team payroll, so we'll likely see the team trying to dump payroll mid-season, so the return for guys like Lohse will be less than it could be in terms of talent just so the team can dump salary.

[reillymcshane]

I could see the team trading or letting Gomez go via FA simply because we have a potential replacement in the minors in Taylor. Catcher is another matter. No one looks like a full time player in our minor league system. The guys in the upper minors that could be big league players, Weisenburger and Centeno, are limited players. They look like potential backups, but that's it. Thus I could see the club extending Lucroy (assuming he's amenable to a deal). Luc is signed through the 2017 season, which is his age 31 season. That's generally the time to let a player go, but if no one is waiting in the wings to take over, signing him may be the best move.

 

Like with the Braun deal, signing Luc to an extension now is probably not the best thing. Ideally, you wait until after 2016, see how he's doing health-wise and performance-wise, plus monitor the minor leaguers (perhaps we make a trade for a big time prospect between now and then, or draft an advanced catcher this year or maybe someone from the lower minors blossoms into a stud prospect). If no one is on the horizon after the 2016 season, you make the deal to extend Luc. Probably something like the Molina contract - 5-years and $75 million (Molina was entering his age 31 season and a FA. Luc would be a year away from free agency). No doubt Luc will decline as he ages, but his defense/pitch framing will hopefully help him retain good value as he ages.

 

You could do the extension now and probably save some dollars. But then you have the risk of the player having health issues in the next three years, and end up regretting the deal (like with Braun).

[tmwiese55]

You could do the extension now and probably save some dollars. But then you have the risk of the player having health issues in the next three years, and end up regretting the deal (like with Braun).

Exactly, that's the decision and a sound argument can be made either way, just like with Braun but at a much smaller scale.

 

Personally I think they could get a big discount from Lucroy right now, he's made around what 13 mil pretax/pre agent fee. So he will have taken home around 6-7 mil by the end of the contract, nothing in baseball terms. Have to think a 3-4 yr 30-40 mil total deal would be enough for him to sign right now and never have to worry about money again the rest of his life. And that would only sign him through age 34-35 so it shouldn't get the team in too much trouble no matter what.

[reillymcshane]

You could do the extension now and probably save some dollars. But then you have the risk of the player having health issues in the next three years, and end up regretting the deal (like with Braun).

Exactly, that's the decision and a sound argument can be made either way, just like with Braun but at a much smaller scale.

 

Personally I think they could get a big discount from Lucroy right now, he's made around what 13 mil pretax/pre agent fee. So he will have taken home around 6-7 mil by the end of the contract, nothing in baseball terms. Have to think a 3-4 yr 30-40 mil total deal would be enough for him to sign right now and never have to worry about money again the rest of his life. And that would only sign him through age 34-35 so it shouldn't get the team in too much trouble no matter what.

I think a 3-4 year deal for $10/year is a little light, but maybe not. I was thinking more like $12-13 million a year. Being three years away from FA, it's a bit hard to judge. Molina got $15M a year for five years. McCann got $17M a year for five years. Of course, both those guys were free agents.

 

No matter what, you probably save money if you sign him to the extension now. That's as opposed to waiting a few years - and most importantly - Luc still being a premium player.

[SoupTown]

Because the game was on freebie MLB.TV, I got to watch Brauns at bats. I missed the first, but the three I saw he still has this inside out, straight armed, no hands, push swing. I saw two fly balls to the warning track. The home run he hit, I am encouraged how far it went, but still hitting a sitter down the can to right center with the inside out swing.

 

Where is this pulling the ball I heard about all spring training.

 

I am sure soon will leak the thumb is '90%' only. There will be an excuse forever to cover the PED days.

[The stache]

Because the game was on freebie MLB.TV, I got to watch Brauns at bats. I missed the first, but the three I saw he still has this inside out, straight armed, no hands, push swing. I saw two fly balls to the warning track. The home run he hit, I am encouraged how far it went, but still hitting a sitter down the can to right center with the inside out swing.

 

Where is this pulling the ball I heard about all spring training.

 

I am sure soon will leak the thumb is '90%' only. There will be an excuse forever to cover the PED days.

 

The thumb isn't the issue. He hurt himself on opening day. Abdominal injury, wasn't it. That would affect his ability to pull the ball.

 

Why can't you just get over the PED thing? He had an MVP season in 2012, well after the PED issue came up. His struggles last year, and this year, have nothing to do with a lack of PEDs. Two balls to the warning track and a home run....that should tell you that his power is just fine. Pulling the ball is a mechanical issue, not a power issue.

[SoupTown]

"Why can't you just get over the PED thing?"

 

With all due respect, WHAT should I get over?

 

It does appear to me, based on the evidence, that Braun used and needed PEDs to perform. And it may be he used them to sign a 100+ mill extension. Now I sure hope I am wrong. As Ryan will be here another SIX years. Ouch. Paying a guy $20 mill a year to hopefully put up a .700 OPS smacks of terrible management decision making. And, in fact, will CRIPPLE the club for the five years after this.

 

But what does interest me is the OTHER PED group seem to be performing kind of OK post PED. So maybe I am wrong. Maybe PED only helps 10%. And Braun will be a 20 home run guy, with decent D, and high OBP for the next six years. I hope so.

 

Without rehashing the past, one can only make educated guesses on evidence. And the evidence of what Braun 'SAYS' holds no truth. I dont know the dates involved, but I hear you saying PED was 2011. And 2012 was after that. Was not 2011 the year Braun got his extension. Coincidence or evidence.