Braun Hurt on Opening Day

[tmwiese55]

I mentioned this in another thread. Does anyone else see his pitch selection as a problem these days? It seems he's been falling for the low outside slider way more than he used to (a la Corey Hart) which is putting him behind in the count. I don't recall this being a problem for him in his glory days. Getting back to swinging at pitches in the zone has nothing to do with PED and has to help him get back to his old self. Maybe he's pressing because he doesn't have a Prince or Aram from 3 years ago behind him anymore but that has to get out of his head.

[MrTPlush]

I mentioned this in another thread. Does anyone else see his pitch selection as a problem these days? It seems he's been falling for the low outside slider way more than he used to (a la Corey Hart) which is putting him behind in the count. I don't recall this being a problem for him in his glory days. Getting back to swinging at pitches in the zone has nothing to do with PED and has to help him get back to his old self. Maybe he's pressing because he doesn't have a Prince or Aram from 3 years ago behind him anymore but that has to get out of his head.

 

The last few years it was blamed on the thumb injury. Basically he said he had to start his swing earlier blah blah blah and caused him to swing at bad pitches. Whether that is true I don't know....Maybe he is so screwed up after two years of swinging at garbage.

 

And PEDs can effect it in the sense that you can swing the bat faster. You can wait longer and get to balls faster. Of course I don't think you can go from so great to so bad like Braun has with just cutting out PEDs...though I am no expert.

[stoutdude04]

To me(just the eye test), his swings have looked better and more natural. Last year he looked like he was trying to slap everything, whereas this year he actually looks like he is taking good hacks. Now, maybe he is all messed up, or maybe it is something else, but his swing looks better to me. I too, am not a professional though, so my opinion means little.

[3and2Fastball]

I think Braun has elite talent

 

I think it is possible that steroids are what allowed Braun to develop that elite talent and more importantly kept him "healthy", and we'll never see that Braun again

 

I think it is also possible that the steroids were just a one-time thing and he is just on the wrong side of 30 and declining

 

Either way, I doubt we'll see the .900 + OPS Braun again

[Boomer5]

I mentioned this in another thread. Does anyone else see his pitch selection as a problem these days? It seems he's been falling for the low outside slider way more than he used to (a la Corey Hart) which is putting him behind in the count. I don't recall this being a problem for him in his glory days. Getting back to swinging at pitches in the zone has nothing to do with PED and has to help him get back to his old self. Maybe he's pressing because he doesn't have a Prince or Aram from 3 years ago behind him anymore but that has to get out of his head.

 

The last few years it was blamed on the thumb injury. Basically he said he had to start his swing earlier blah blah blah and caused him to swing at bad pitches. Whether that is true I don't know....Maybe he is so screwed up after two years of swinging at garbage.

 

And PEDs can effect it in the sense that you can swing the bat faster. You can wait longer and get to balls faster. Of course I don't think you can go from so great to so bad like Braun has with just cutting out PEDs...though I am no expert.

 

None of us truly know what Braun 2.0 will yield. I have my suspicions, others have theirs.

 

I do go back to the thumb injury. While Im sure it was a real injury, I cant recall players losing so much production for such a long time due exclusively to the thumb. i get that its critical and i get that its exposed to potential injury. What I don't get is why it hasn't been every bit as prevalent an injury as say the tommy john, hamstring, tired arm, etc. Can anyone name a circumstance like this? An elite player at the prime of his career falling apart due to a thumb injury? I would think there is someone but nothing comes to mind.

[3and2Fastball]

An elite player at the prime of his career falling apart due to a thumb injury? I would think there is someone but nothing comes to mind.

 

It happens. Dustin Pedroia comes to mind with his thumb & hand injuries

[gregmag]

The thing about the thumb injury is that it wasn't an abstraction. The guy was going to right field constantly last year, and he explained in detail how the thumb caused that. He looked like a guy who was playing with one hand tied behind his back. I just can't see any basis for doubting that the thumb severely compromised his hitting last year. Now, we can't say exactly how much it hurt him; we have no way to know what he would have produced without the injury. But we know he would have been able to pull the ball, and power hitters generally like to have that option.

 

The PED speculation seems pointless to me. We don't know how much he took, when, or for how long. We don't know how it helped him, because info on performance effects of PEDs is sketchy. We know he didn't get bigger, Bonds style. Based on how his career has gone, I'm guessing he used PEDs mainly to avoid and bounce back from injury, but that's as much of a guess as anyone else's theory. We also know, as WTP pointed out, that he produced in a year when we can be as confident as possible that he wasn't using PEDs.

 

He's on the wrong side of 30. Even great players experience dropoffs when they get to that point. I continue to love the idea of transitioning him to 1b.

[Boomer5]

We will see. This is very intelligent board, and many of you seem to think PEDs werent that big a deal to the Braun we all loved.

 

I can't possibly imagine that being true for many reasons, but the good news is the truth will be discovered on the field.

 

My point isn't to bash Braun, its to point out the Brewers entire plan is based on Braun returning to super star status, and the holes in that plan.

 

If Im right, what is plan B?

[pacopete4]

I continue to love the idea of transitioning him to 1b.

 

The problem with this is, Lucroy is already taking those left handed pitching swings right now because if we do want to extend him, it will be as a part time catcher and 1B. That leaves Braun still in the OF. Personally, I'm OK with Braun in either LF or RF. His defense is fine, not great, but fine out there and I don't think it is much harder on the body. If Lind keeps whacking away, he might be the answer there for a couple of years as well.

[3and2Fastball]

If Braun returns to even an .850 - .875 OPS, the Brewers would be wise to trade him to a big market team and stock up on prospects. Because of the steroid scandal thing, there wouldn't be the backlash from fans in "trading the face of the franchise"

[Boomer5]

If Braun returns to even an .850 - .875 OPS, the Brewers would be wise to trade him to a big market team and stock up on prospects. Because of the steroid scandal thing, there wouldn't be the backlash from fans in "trading the face of the franchise"

 

Absolutely. Look at his contract starting in 2016.

 

2016: $20M

2017: $20M

2018: $20M

2019: $19M

2020: $17M

2021: $15M or $4M buyout

[tmwiese55]

I would be in the camp that the PEDs aren't the issue here, other than not using them to help him stay healthy. In this era under the most intense testing in any sports association what the players are using is very small compared to the 90s when they were using real deal steroids to bulk up. I pretty much view the modern stuff as supplements to help recover from injuries or just to stay fresh for muscle recovery. Braun had his best season the year after he was initially caught. I think his potential decline here is due to injuries along with normal declining due to age, yet everyone will say PEDs.

 

I would even go so far as to say these small supplements should be legal to help players stay healthy and on the field. Who wants to see the best players on the DL and/or bench for rest. As long as they're not all out juicing like the Bonds/Mcgurie/Sosa era I'm fine with it. If whatever they're taking isn't enough to trip the tests (as noone in the biogen scandal did) then it's fine by me, it's likely such a minor thing that we shouldn't be concerned with it. MLB shouldn't be going out of their way to make their players looks worse and to give themselves more bad publicity.

[3and2Fastball]

If whatever they're taking isn't enough to trip the tests (as noone in the biogen scandal did) then it's fine by me, it's likely such a minor thing that we shouldn't be concerned with it. MLB shouldn't be going out of their way to make their players looks worse and to give themselves more bad publicity.

 

The tests aren't being tripped because the masking agents the players are taking are very advanced

[torts]

If Braun returns to even an .850 - .875 OPS, the Brewers would be wise to trade him to a big market team and stock up on prospects. Because of the steroid scandal thing, there wouldn't be the backlash from fans in "trading the face of the franchise"

 

Absolutely. Look at his contract starting in 2016.

 

2016: $20M

2017: $20M

2018: $20M

2019: $19M

2020: $17M

2021: $15M or $4M buyout

 

I think you need to go investigate what other OF'ers are getting per year to put into perspective what $20m a year actually is... and this is with 3 years still to go on other OF contracts out there... his $20 mil is not going to look that bad in 2018.

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

 

Average annual value

The highest-paid players in baseball history, by average annual value:

1. Miguel Cabrera, $31,000,000 (2016-23)

2. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)

3. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)

4. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)

5. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)

… Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20)

7. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)

8. Alex Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)

9. Ryan Howard, $25,000,000 (2012-16)

… Josh Hamilton, $25,000,000 (2013-17)

… Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)

… Giancarlo Stanton, $25,000,000 (2015-27)

13. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18)

14. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)

15. Mike Trout, $24,083,333 (2015-20)

16. Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15)

. . . Albert Pujols, $24,000,000 (2012-21)

. . . Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 (2013-18)

. . . Robinson Cano, $24,000,000 (2014-23)

20. Prince Fielder, $23,777,778 (2012-20)

21. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)

. . . Joe Mauer, $23,000,000 (2011-18)

23. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)

24. Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)

. . . Mark Teixeira, $22,500,000 (2009-16)

. . . Joey Votto, $22,500,000 (2014-23)

27. Masahiro Tanaka, $22,142,857 (2014-20)

28. Roger Clemens, $22,000,022 (2006)

. . . Adrian Gonzalez, $22,000,000 (2012-18)

. . . Hanley Ramirez, $22,000,000 (2015-18)

31. Jacoby Ellsbury, $21,857,143 (2014-20)

32. Matt Cain, $21,250,000 (2012-17)

33. Ryan Braun, $21,000,000 (2016-20)

34. Rick Porcello, $20,625,000 (2016-19)

35. Carl Crawford, $20,285,714 (2011-17)

36. Tim Lincecum, $20,250,000 (2012-13)

37. Manny Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)

. . . Roy Halladay, $20,000,000 (2011-13)

. . . Matt Kemp, $20,000,000 (2012-19)

40. Adam Wainwright, $19,500,000 (2014-18)

41. Miguel Cabrera, $19,037,500 (2008-15)

42. Pablo Sandoval, $19,000,000 (2015-19)

43. Derek Jeter, $18,900,000 (2001-10)

44. Shin-Soo Choo, $18,571,429 (2014-20)

45. Buster Posey, $18,555,555 (2013-21)

46. Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)

47. Andruw Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)

48. Barry Bonds, $18,000,000 (2002-06)

. . . Sammy Sosa, $18,000,000 (2002-05)

. . . Roger Clemens, $18,000,000 (2005)

. . . Jayson Werth, $18,000,000 (2007-14)

. . . Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)

. . . Torii Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Ichiro Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Vernon Wells, $18,000,000 (2008-14)

. . . Ryan Howard, $18,000,000 (2009-11)

. . . Hunter Pence, $18,000,000 (2014-18)

[logan82]

Because of deferred money, Braun is never paid more than $15m a year in any year.

[torts]

Because of deferred money, Braun is never paid more than $15m a year in any year.

 

right after I posted I saw the outfielders breakdown.

 

Outfielders

The highest-paid outfielders, by average annual value:

1. Josh Hamilton, $25,000,000 (2013-17)

… Giancarlo Stanton, $25,000,000 (2015-27)

3. Mike Trout, $24,083,333 (2015-20)

4. Hanley Ramirez, $22,000,000 (2015-18)

6. Jacoby Ellsbury, $21,857,143 (2014-20)

7. Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)

8. Ryan Braun, $21,000,000 (2016-20)

9. Carl Crawford, $20,285,714 (2011-17)

10. Manny Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)

. . . Matt Kemp, $20,000,000 (2012-19)

11. Shin-Soo Choo, $18,571,429 (2014-20)

12. Andruw Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)

. . . Torii Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Ichiro Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Vernon Wells, $18,000,000 (2008-13)

. . . Jayson Werth, $18,000,000 (2011-17)

. . . Hunter Pence, $18,000,000 (2014-18)

18. Matt Holliday, $17,142,857 (2010-16)

19. Carlos Beltran, $17,000,000 (2005-11)

. . . Alfonso Soriano, $17,000,000 (2007-14)

. . . Andre Ethier, $17,000,000 (2013-17)

22. Carlos Lee, $16,666,667 (2007-12)

23. Jason Bay, $16,500,000 (2010-13)

24. B.J. Upton, $15,050,000 (2013-17)

25. Magglio Ordonez, $15,000,000 (2005-09)

. . . Carlos Beltran, $15,000,000 (2014-17)

. . . Curtis Granderson, $15,000,000 (2014-17)

28. Ryan Braun, $14,550,000 (2011-20)

29. Adam Jones, $14,250,000 (2013-18)

30. Vladimir Guerrero, $14,000,000 (2004-08)

. . . J.D. Drew, $14,000,000 (2007-11)

. . . Nick Swisher, $14,000,000 (2013-16)

33. Hunter Pence, $13,800,000 (2013)

34. Albert Belle, $13,000,000 (1999-2003)

. . . Johnny Damon, $13,000,000 (2006-09)

. . . Hideki Matsui, $13,000,000 (2006-09)

. . . Jose Bautista, $13,000,000 (2011-15)

. . . Carlos Beltran, $13,000,000 (2012-13)

. . . Torii Hunter, $13,000,000 (2013-14)

40. Bobby Abreu, $12,800,000 (2003-07)

41. Kosuke Fukudome, $12,000,000 (2008-11)

. . . Jose Guillen, $12,000,000 (2008-10)

. . . Aaron Rowand, $12,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Michael Bourn, $12,000,000 (2013-16)

45. Matt Holliday, $11,500,000 (2008-09)

46. Carlos Gonzalez, $11,428,571 (2011-17)

47. Nick Markakis, $11,016,667 (2009-14)

48. Jermaine Dye, $11,000,000 (2008-09)

[tmwiese55]

The tests aren't being tripped because the masking agents the players are taking are very advanced

 

Possibly, we don't really know. From what I understood of most of these guys that got caught in the Biogen is that they were taking small "gummy bear" type supplements after a game, stuff so minute that it wouldn't show up the next day. Braun's mistake was seemingly taking it before he left the park that day and was clear from being tested until the next day. Again, we don't really know the story. I'll stick with my stance that if they don't fail the most stringent test in the athletic world that it's good enough for me. Of course part of that most stringent testing is that they're trying to test for masking agents, which they are and should continue to update as best as possible. i think they whol witch hunt to catch these guys in baseball is ridiculous, noone cares when a football player fails and there is next to no testing in the NBA.

[torts]

i think they whol witch hunt to catch these guys in baseball is ridiculous, noone cares when a football player fails and there is next to no testing in the NBA.

 

THIS!!!!! and steroids/PED/HGH could be FAR more dangerous in a full on contact sport than in baseball.

[tmwiese55]

Exactly. And in the NBA, they get tested 4 times a year, often with a heads up as to when, and then they are home free the rest of the year, including playoffs. So let's say Lebron was tested for the fourth time January 21, he's free to do whatever he wants until the next season. Remember when he took his two week break in the middle of the season and then came back and looked like his old self again? Or in the playoffs a few years ago when D-wade looked like he couldn't walk, then he had two or three days off in between games and he looked 25 years old again. They could do whatever they want and frankly I don't care, I want them on the court.

[pitchleague]

Because of deferred money, Braun is never paid more than $15m a year in any year.

 

right after I posted I saw the outfielders breakdown.

 

Outfielders

The highest-paid outfielders, by average annual value:

1. Josh Hamilton, $25,000,000 (2013-17)

… Giancarlo Stanton, $25,000,000 (2015-27)

3. Mike Trout, $24,083,333 (2015-20)

4. Hanley Ramirez, $22,000,000 (2015-18)

6. Jacoby Ellsbury, $21,857,143 (2014-20)

7. Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)

8. Ryan Braun, $21,000,000 (2016-20)

9. Carl Crawford, $20,285,714 (2011-17)

10. Manny Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)

. . . Matt Kemp, $20,000,000 (2012-19)

11. Shin-Soo Choo, $18,571,429 (2014-20)

12. Andruw Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)

. . . Torii Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Ichiro Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Vernon Wells, $18,000,000 (2008-13)

. . . Jayson Werth, $18,000,000 (2011-17)

. . . Hunter Pence, $18,000,000 (2014-18)

18. Matt Holliday, $17,142,857 (2010-16)

19. Carlos Beltran, $17,000,000 (2005-11)

. . . Alfonso Soriano, $17,000,000 (2007-14)

. . . Andre Ethier, $17,000,000 (2013-17)

22. Carlos Lee, $16,666,667 (2007-12)

23. Jason Bay, $16,500,000 (2010-13)

24. B.J. Upton, $15,050,000 (2013-17)

25. Magglio Ordonez, $15,000,000 (2005-09)

. . . Carlos Beltran, $15,000,000 (2014-17)

. . . Curtis Granderson, $15,000,000 (2014-17)

28. Ryan Braun, $14,550,000 (2011-20)

29. Adam Jones, $14,250,000 (2013-18)

30. Vladimir Guerrero, $14,000,000 (2004-08)

. . . J.D. Drew, $14,000,000 (2007-11)

. . . Nick Swisher, $14,000,000 (2013-16)

33. Hunter Pence, $13,800,000 (2013)

34. Albert Belle, $13,000,000 (1999-2003)

. . . Johnny Damon, $13,000,000 (2006-09)

. . . Hideki Matsui, $13,000,000 (2006-09)

. . . Jose Bautista, $13,000,000 (2011-15)

. . . Carlos Beltran, $13,000,000 (2012-13)

. . . Torii Hunter, $13,000,000 (2013-14)

40. Bobby Abreu, $12,800,000 (2003-07)

41. Kosuke Fukudome, $12,000,000 (2008-11)

. . . Jose Guillen, $12,000,000 (2008-10)

. . . Aaron Rowand, $12,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Michael Bourn, $12,000,000 (2013-16)

45. Matt Holliday, $11,500,000 (2008-09)

46. Carlos Gonzalez, $11,428,571 (2011-17)

47. Nick Markakis, $11,016,667 (2009-14)

48. Jermaine Dye, $11,000,000 (2008-09)

 

 

Why is Braun listed twice? #8 and #28

[MrTPlush]

I mentioned this in another thread. Does anyone else see his pitch selection as a problem these days? It seems he's been falling for the low outside slider way more than he used to (a la Corey Hart) which is putting him behind in the count. I don't recall this being a problem for him in his glory days. Getting back to swinging at pitches in the zone has nothing to do with PED and has to help him get back to his old self. Maybe he's pressing because he doesn't have a Prince or Aram from 3 years ago behind him anymore but that has to get out of his head.

 

The last few years it was blamed on the thumb injury. Basically he said he had to start his swing earlier blah blah blah and caused him to swing at bad pitches. Whether that is true I don't know....Maybe he is so screwed up after two years of swinging at garbage.

 

And PEDs can effect it in the sense that you can swing the bat faster. You can wait longer and get to balls faster. Of course I don't think you can go from so great to so bad like Braun has with just cutting out PEDs...though I am no expert.

 

None of us truly know what Braun 2.0 will yield. I have my suspicions, others have theirs.

 

I do go back to the thumb injury. While Im sure it was a real injury, I cant recall players losing so much production for such a long time due exclusively to the thumb. i get that its critical and i get that its exposed to potential injury. What I don't get is why it hasn't been every bit as prevalent an injury as say the tommy john, hamstring, tired arm, etc. Can anyone name a circumstance like this? An elite player at the prime of his career falling apart due to a thumb injury? I would think there is someone but nothing comes to mind.

 

I think calling it a thumb injury is being too specific. Lets name all the players that had hand/wrist injuries that made their career go south. I am sure you can find a lot of players that had wrist injuries that failed afterwards...Weeks comes to mind.

[logan82]

Because of deferred money, Braun is never paid more than $15m a year in any year.

 

right after I posted I saw the outfielders breakdown.

 

Outfielders

The highest-paid outfielders, by average annual value:

1. Josh Hamilton, $25,000,000 (2013-17)

… Giancarlo Stanton, $25,000,000 (2015-27)

3. Mike Trout, $24,083,333 (2015-20)

4. Hanley Ramirez, $22,000,000 (2015-18)

6. Jacoby Ellsbury, $21,857,143 (2014-20)

7. Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)

8. Ryan Braun, $21,000,000 (2016-20)

9. Carl Crawford, $20,285,714 (2011-17)

10. Manny Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)

. . . Matt Kemp, $20,000,000 (2012-19)

11. Shin-Soo Choo, $18,571,429 (2014-20)

12. Andruw Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)

. . . Torii Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Ichiro Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Vernon Wells, $18,000,000 (2008-13)

. . . Jayson Werth, $18,000,000 (2011-17)

. . . Hunter Pence, $18,000,000 (2014-18)

18. Matt Holliday, $17,142,857 (2010-16)

19. Carlos Beltran, $17,000,000 (2005-11)

. . . Alfonso Soriano, $17,000,000 (2007-14)

. . . Andre Ethier, $17,000,000 (2013-17)

22. Carlos Lee, $16,666,667 (2007-12)

23. Jason Bay, $16,500,000 (2010-13)

24. B.J. Upton, $15,050,000 (2013-17)

25. Magglio Ordonez, $15,000,000 (2005-09)

. . . Carlos Beltran, $15,000,000 (2014-17)

. . . Curtis Granderson, $15,000,000 (2014-17)

28. Ryan Braun, $14,550,000 (2011-20)

29. Adam Jones, $14,250,000 (2013-18)

30. Vladimir Guerrero, $14,000,000 (2004-08)

. . . J.D. Drew, $14,000,000 (2007-11)

. . . Nick Swisher, $14,000,000 (2013-16)

33. Hunter Pence, $13,800,000 (2013)

34. Albert Belle, $13,000,000 (1999-2003)

. . . Johnny Damon, $13,000,000 (2006-09)

. . . Hideki Matsui, $13,000,000 (2006-09)

. . . Jose Bautista, $13,000,000 (2011-15)

. . . Carlos Beltran, $13,000,000 (2012-13)

. . . Torii Hunter, $13,000,000 (2013-14)

40. Bobby Abreu, $12,800,000 (2003-07)

41. Kosuke Fukudome, $12,000,000 (2008-11)

. . . Jose Guillen, $12,000,000 (2008-10)

. . . Aaron Rowand, $12,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Michael Bourn, $12,000,000 (2013-16)

45. Matt Holliday, $11,500,000 (2008-09)

46. Carlos Gonzalez, $11,428,571 (2011-17)

47. Nick Markakis, $11,016,667 (2009-14)

48. Jermaine Dye, $11,000,000 (2008-09)

 

 

Why is Braun listed twice? #8 and #28

Interesting. Didn't read that post. My guess is different contracts. One includes his whole contract and one is just the extension.

[tmwiese55]

While calling him overpaid, keep in mind his initial extension was so cheap that he was being paid like 5mil per year during his glory years. Yes he'll be overpaid as he gets older but he was massively underpaid until basically now so it balances out, that's how MLB works.

[monty57]

Because of deferred money, Braun is never paid more than $15m a year in any year.

 

Which basically means that instead of having to pay him for 6 more years, the Brewers payroll will be hampered for many years after he is no longer playing.

 

At this point he is basically untradeable. Hopefully he can have another superstar season, allowing the Brewers to trade him off, letting someone else pay him lots of money when he's nearly 40 and continue to pay him lots of money when he's retired.

 

Barring trade, the best case I see is that it proves true that it was the injury that hurt his numbers, the surgery proves successful, and he becomes a mid-.800 OPS guy who gradually fades to a low-.800 OPS guy, ending the contract as a mid-to-high .700 OPS guy, then we basically have what the Cubs had with Soriano, except that Soriano wasn't injury prone. Not horrible, but overpaid and eating up a lot of the payroll, with fans blaming every team problem on him. Unfortunately, the deferred money won't even allow the Brewers to trade him off to the Yankees to spend his final season as a bench bat.

 

Worst case is that he is a high-.700s to low .800 OPS guy now and will regress from there, with lots of time missed with injuries, potentially pushing his numbers lower. If this is the case, the Brewers are really in trouble.

[MrTPlush]

While calling him overpaid, keep in mind his initial extension was so cheap that he was being paid like 5mil per year during his glory years. Yes he'll be overpaid as he gets older but he was massively underpaid until basically now so it balances out, that's how MLB works.

 

The logic behind this makes no sense and I hate how people love to use it. We were not forced to give him an extension. We could have let the man walk and not gotten into a deal he had no chance living up to. The deal wouldn't have been so bad if he didn't destroy his marketability, but we all know that is well outside the window.